Modi’s Day-1 in office

Col R Hariharan

[This is a summary of author’s comments made on May 27 to English and Tamil newspapers and magazines as well as on TV news channels.]

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had faced more flak and investigations than any other aspirant stepping into the shoes of a prime minister, has shown on Day-1 that he is a man of his own mind. His spectacular election victory owed it to his planning, execution and management of his election strategy. 

His relentless campaign against odds has shown as a one who leads from the front, not losing sight of overall goals, and an uncanny knack to get his way through overcoming his detractors both within and outside the BJP. Last but not least is his ability to pick a team and motivate them to give their best.  

Many of these qualities came to the fore on his Day-1 in office. The BJP accustomed to its geriatric leadership functioning was infused with energy; of course the elderly leaders despite all the bowing and touching of feet were put to the pasture as younger leaders took over key functions.  They had put their faith in him and it was pay off time. But under Modi they will have to emerge as achievers.

This was in marked contrast to cabinet making process of Dr Manmohan Singh. It was directed from the top with little opportunity for the Prime Minister to demur. Naturally it had disastrous impact upon the PM’s hydra-headed team’s performance and accountability.

Another promise Modi has kept is to balance the need for merit and talent in the cabinet against the political compulsions of maintaining caste, religious and regional and coalition partners in its composition. He had promised a lean cabinet and put together a team of 44 ministers. However, unoccupied berths in some of the key ministries like Defence promise to swell the numbers before the Budget session in July.

Invitation to SAARC leaders

Much has been read in Modi’s invitation to SAARC leaders to attend his inaugural ceremony. Some of the news anchors always keen to read tea leaves have called it a foreign policy coup. To do so would be overkill. But Modi the opportunist used the happy occasion to garner some good will in the neighbourhood where a lot of suspicion lingers about how he would lead the government.

On the other hand, Modi the showman knows that to be respected as the Prime Minister of the largest democracy, he has to give a thorough makeover of his image tarred by the Western press and English media that described him as a Fascist and anti-Muslim hawk. And he just used the opportunity offered by the inaugural ceremony. This would enable him to set the right tone for enlarging his international acceptability.

By inviting the SAARC leaders he has probably made a good start in this exercise. But for the skeptics to believe it was much more than a cosmetic exercise, the yardstick would be on the government’s performance in the coming months.  

He has also sent a strong message of his preference for India’s immediate neighbourhood as his foreign policy priority. The message would have been more inclusive if Myanmar Prime Minister had also been invited for the inaugural.

Inclusion of Mauritius among the invitees is a strong indicator of the importance Modi attaches to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) which has implications for the strategic security of the IOR. In tandem with Maldives and Sri Lanka, India’s two other Indian Ocean neighbours, it gives inkling to the likely enlargement of the nascent maritime security cooperation between India and its island neighbours.

Both China and the U.S. who see themselves as strategic stakeholders would have taken note of Modi’s style. It portends a confident, strong, and assertive leadership in India’s dealings with other countries.

Nationally, the Congress opposition despite some nit-picking had no other choice but to support his decision to invite SAARC leaders. The other battered regional satraps had little to comment as they were busy putting their houses in order. We can see this happening more often if Modi delivers some of his promises in real time.

Invitation to Nawaz Sharif

By inviting Pak Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa in spite of opposition from sections within his own coalition, Modi has demonstrated h is firm control over the government. Modi has also shown that while he is aware of concerns of coalition partners and states his decision, he would not hesitate to get through his decision if need be in the national interest.

Both the foreign leaders have reciprocated the good will behind the invitation from Modi by releasing Indian fishermen in their custody. Despite all the bonhomie shown in photo opportunities with them, Modi has reminded the two leaders that India was determined to pursue its core interests in building a win-win relationship with its neighbours and they need to help remove the impediments in its way.

In the case of Pakistan, he seem to have highlighted the key issues of trans-border terrorism, the need to speed up follow up action in Pakistan on 26/11 terror attacks, and opening up of Pakistan  for Indian trade. Nawaz Sharif despite his more guarded reaction seem to have agreed to cooperate with India to ensure that the democratic government in Afghanistan is not destabilized after the withdrawal of U.S. forces by Taliban terrorists. If this goes through it would be a remarkable breakthrough to address India’s key security concerns relating of Afghanistan affecting the stability of the entire region.

It would not be true to narrative to read much more than it in the meetings. They are ice-breakers to provide the two sides to understand the nature of change in Indian leadership, while providing the Indian Prime Minister an opportunity to put through his foreign policy exercise. Further progress in relationship can only through after ground is carefully prepared by the respective governments.

Invitation to Mahinda Rajapaksa

The meeting between Modi and President Rajapaksa has both an international and national context. Modi has shown his readiness to build upon the strong relationship existing between the two countries. At the same time, he has requested Sri Lanka “to expedite the process of national reconciliation in a manner that meets the aspirations of the Tamil community for a life of equality, justice, peace and dignity in a united Sri Lanka” in the words of the Secretary Ministry of External Affairs Ms Sujata Singh. This would remind Rajapaksa that he had still not delivered upon his promises and caution him of possible impact on the relationship if he continues to delay. He has also reassured Rajapaksa that though some of his political partners are supporters of Tamil Eelam, there was no change in his government’s stand on a united Sri Lanka.  

Despite all the drama with Vaiko’s loud protests in the Capital, the din of black flag demonstrations in Tamil Nadu, and the State Chief Minister Ms J Jayalalithaa going into a sulk, Modi’s absolute majority in parliament has given him an opportunity to structure his Sri Lanka policy to make it vibrant. It has also given him a chance to build upon the BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu as the state politics is in a state of flux after Ms Jayalalithaa scored a stunning victory reducing the opposition to single digit.

BJP’s present partners in the state are political light weights; despite their reservations on Modi’s Sri Lanka policy they are likely to be more benefitted by continuing the alliance with the BJP. This would enable them to have some clout at the Centre essential for their survival.  After seeing Modi in action, some of these parties might rethink on the viability of pursuing a hawkish stance on Sri Lanka.

The DMK, though reduced to a zero in the parliament, still retains the loyalty of nearly one fourth of voters.  However, the party has still not recovered from the leadership paralysis that struck it after the drubbing at polls. The fratricidal struggle for the party leadership between the DMK leader Karunanidhi’s scions Alagiri and Stalin continues.

As though these are not enough, Kalaignar Karunanidhi is in for hard days in his old age as both his party and the family network that build a huge fortune are in shambles. The Damocles’ Sword of corruption trials are hanging over his octegenrian wife Mrs Dayalu, daughter Kanimozhi , nephew Dayanidhi Maran and party loyalist A Raja.  

As corruption trials are likely to be speeded up as promised in the BJP manifesto, DMK will have to rework its political strategies to survive. This might induce the DMK to forget its much-hyped preference for secular partnership to take a re-look at the BJP alliance in the state. 

At the state level, Ms Jayalalithaa went into hyperbole on Modi’s invitation to Rajapaksa describing it as betrayal and insensitivity to Tamil feelings on the Sri Lanka issue. Lack of reaction from Modi probably made her boycott the inaugural ceremony. Not only that, she went on to ban her party’s 37 newly-elected parliamentarians from attending it. 

While this was in keeping with her “black or white” style of seeing more enemies than friends, her not so friendly response to Modi has to be understood at two levels –personal and political. With political pundits predicting the possibility of a hung parliament, her prime ministerial ambitions soared. Despite securing 37 of the 39 seats, Modi’s landslide victory nationwide has put paid to her ambitions. 

Her boycott of Modi’s inaugural shows that she was far from reconciled with the outcome of the elections at the national level.  With this negative attitude, Ms Jayalalithaa has lost a good opportunity to recoup the good personal equation she used to enjoy with Modi.  

Politically, she needs to improve her relationship with the Modi government to mend her fractured Centre-state relationship of the past. She needs to domit as she needs Centre’s cooperation and good will to see through some of the ambitious projects in the state. With the state assembly elections due in another year and a half, she needs to show results as the DMK and all other opposition parties will be working hard to put up a better performance. So she can be expected to evolve a face saving method of building better relations with Modi and the Centre in that order in the coming months. And the politically savvy prime minister may reciprocate such an overture if there is a future in it.  

Thus the emerging political environment in the state improves the chances for Modi to work out a holistic Sri Lanka policy. Such a policy should address India’s national imperatives as well as the state’s specific concerns on Sri Lanka Tamils.  It can give meaningful expression to India’s and Tamil Nadu’s concerns not only to serve national interests, but also remove some of the bottlenecks in India-Sri Lanka relations.  But for all this to happen Modi has the difficult task of delivering his promises; and India and the world will be watching.

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com. Blog: www.colhariharan.org

First take on Foreign Policy and Power Projection under Modi

Col R Hariharan

[This article includes points made by Col Hariharan at a panel discussion on the Door Darshan TV on May 16, 2014.]

Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, has been given massive mandate by the people in the just concluded general elections to the parliament. The BJP is poised to get a majority on its own steam, even without the support of coalition partners. So Modi enjoys a lot of freedom to shape and execute his policies without depending upon the support of coalition partners. But he has clearly indicated that he would like to carry all parties along with him in furthering his national development agenda. 

Despite Modi’s huge public presence, New Delhi’s so called liberal left-leaning “intellectual” class which had rallied against him had never been able to carry out a dispassionate analysis of Modi and his style of governance. His success has made a mockery of the traditional yardsticks of class, caste and communal equations used by analysts to study Indian political operations. He had planned and fleshed out the entire BJP election campaign using the best available human resources and technology to achieve his campaign goals.

His assertive style of leadership has a few characteristics: leading from the front, clear articulation of objectives, single minded pursuit of goals, ability to motivate his team, and thinking out of the box, assisted by indefatigable energy and oratorical skills. This had helped him make Gujarat a frontline state in development. So we can expect him to largely use his experiential learning as chief minister while serving as prime minister.  As a man with abundant commonsense we can also expect him to adapt his style to suit the complexities of his new job at the national level. 

Foreign policy     

There is a lot of convergence in the overall foreign policy vision of the Congress party and the BJP. However, Narendra Modi’s grammar and articulation of policies will make a difference to the policy dispensation. His assertive leadership style and expression will bring the much needed clarity in foreign policy pronouncements. His developmental model will offer greater opportunities for foreign countries to expand their economic relations with India, beyond the limitations of real politick.

As Modi is an assertive leader; foreign countries like the U.S. and China who have been routinely trashing Indian sentiments as a part of their policy would be more cautious in handling sensitive issues.

The U.S

George W Bush had laid a strong foundation for revamping the U.S. India relationship on a firm footing. And Dr Manmohan Singh had reciprocated it by pushing through the Indo-U.S civil nuclear agreement in the teeth of opposition. However, President Obama failed to carry it forward and both sides seem to have lost their energy or interest to keep up the momentum for reasons of national policy over the last six years.

Strangely, in a convoluted policy decision Narendra Modi was singled out for a U.S boycott after the post-Godhra riots in Gujarat in 2002. The State department withdrew his visa to visit the U.S. The American foreign office spokesman reminded Indians a few days back that the visa ban was still in force and Modi will have to apply to get it revoked. This comment came even as Indian exit polls were predicting a victory for Modi. So much for American diplomacy!

So the importance of President Obama’s warm message congratulating Narendra Modi on his success, inviting him to the U.S has to be viewed in this murky environment already muddied by some of the U.S. policy dispensations affecting India. A good example is the U.S’ vindictive application of IPR norms to haul up Indian pharmaceutical companies competing successfully in global markets against U.S. pharmaceutical companies.

However, we can expect Modi, being a pragmatist, ready to improve trade and economic links with the U.S. Howver, improvements in strategic security relations would require improvement in personal equation between the leadership of the two countries. But one thing is clear, Modi will ensure India is no pushover and the U.S cannot take India for granted any more. The U.S. to overcome the initial mess of its own making, will probably have to walk an extra mile as Modi starts implementing his economic agenda.

Pakistan

After dealing with Dr Manmohan Singh who was pliable enough to accept Pakistan as a victim of terrorism (of its own making no doubt!), Modi is likely to be more assertive without being aggressive.

There is likely to be enough scope for improving India-Pakistan trade relations (provided Pakistan Army sheds its India-phobia). However, Modi is likely to insist upon Pakistan dismantling its terrorist infrastructure across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir and hand over or prosecute terrorist masterminds involved in 26/11 terror attacks in Mumbai before reopening substantive high level dialogue between the two countries.

Nawaz Sharif is struggling to talk peace with Pakistan Taliban terrorists  even as they continue to carry out bomb attacks. He is also facing an increasingly restive Pak army which finds rapid marginalisatopm pf its extra constitutional authority. While he walks the tightrope between these two forces, we may not expect any dramatic moves to bring immediate cheers in India-Pakistan relations in the near future.  

China

Even before the general election, China had said it was looking forward to deal with the new government in New Delhi to carry forward the its relationship building process with New Delhi. China’s readiness to invest in India would be welcomed by Narendra Modi as it could help his development agenda particularly in infrastructure building, particularly in power and railway sectors.

However, Modi has a warm personal equation with Japan which has appreciated his development model; as a result Gujarat has benefitted from Japanese investment.  And China-Japan relationship is perhaps going through its worst phase now. In spite of such constraints, the entrepreneurial spirit of Modi is likely to nuance India’s relationship with both Japan and China.

He is likely to overcome Chinese resistance to enlarging Indian role in ASEAN and in SAARC nations by making the economic bonding more attractive with these countries.

At the same time, New Delhi is more likely to rreciprocate visibly  to China’s mindless pinpricks against India in the name of buttressing territorial claims like stapled visas or denial of visas, though the border talks going on are likely to continue at its own slow pace. 

Sri Lanka

Narendra Modi’s success has probably put Colombo in a tizzy. There are good reasons for this. 

Unlike the earlier Indian Prime Minister, Modi is a strong, assertive leader. So Sri Lanka will find it cannot take him for granted. He can be more demanding from a relationship. And Sri Lanka probably fears his Hindu nationalist ideology would make him  prefer dealing with Tamil Hindus  favourably than with Sinhala Buddhists.

BJP’s two major allies in Tamil Nadu i.e., the MDMK led by Vaiko and the PMK led by Dr Ramadoss have been strongly espousing the Eelam Cause. They have been demanding New Delhi to take strong action against Sri Lanka for alleged war crimes. This is compounded by the resounding electoral success of the  Tamil Nadu chief minister Ms Jayalalithaa, who had taken a strong anti-Rajapaksa stance. This could push BJP’s Tamil Nadu allies to adopt an even more strident posture. Though the allies’ electoralperformance had been poor in the parliamentary poll, the BJP would probably like to build upon it to strengthen its precarious perch in Tamil Nadu. So their pressure could impact BJP’s Sri Lanka policy.

On the other hand, BJP leaders have clarified that despite the electoral alliance with Vaiko and other fringe elements in Tamil Nadu, they would stick to the basics of India - Sri Lanka relations: ‘No’ to Tamil separatism, ‘Yes’ to building upon the country-to-country relationship forward regardless of leadership, and ‘No’ to extremism of any kind - Tamil, Jihadi or Maoist species.

Modi in spite of his dogmatism about Hindutva, is a pragmatist. He probably counts Buddha (who is one of the Dasavatars of Vishnu) as a part of Hindutva. So it will be simplistic to say that Modi or the BJP would be closer to the Tamil Hindu than the Sinhala Buddhist. 

However, Modia will probably be more demanding than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, particularly as President Rajapaksa has gone back on his promises to India to implement the 13^th Amendment to the Sri Lanka constitution to fully empower the provincial councils. So Sri Lanka should be prepared to rework its lop sided political strategy tilted in favour of status quo to resume the political dialog process with Tamil political parties. Implementing the 13^th Amendment in full will be its first step. We can expect the Modi government to emphasize this aspect. The same applies to implementing the UNHRC resolution on Sri Lanka.

To summarise, despite his life-long association with Hindutva, Narendra Modi is a man of his own mind. He sets his own goals and makes others help him to achieve them. Modi has an uncanny ability to see the big picture and then strategise his action. His agenda is likely to be more inclusive than exclusive. The election campaign he had masterminded and successfully executed is a testimony to his way of functioning. So what BJP leaders say may not be automatically translated by him into action in the way they want. We will have to wait and see his choice of cabinet members and the way he functions in handling entirely new challenges before we can judge him. 

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies.   E- mail:colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org)

Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No 2099 dated May 17, 2014 http://www.c3sindia.org/india/4022

Sri Lanka: Comments on Tamils seeking refuge in Tamil Nadu

Col R Hariharan

Ten Sri Lankan Tamils, including two women and five children, from Sri Lanka who landed Aricha Munai off the Dhanushkodi coast (Tamil Nadu) on May 5 2014, have been arrested by police for entering the country without passports. After preliminary questioning, they are now lodged in Puzhal jail near Chennai. The media has questioned the decision to arrest them as they had fled from Mullaitivu fearing for their personal safety and sought refuge in India. Previously such refugees used to be screened at Mandapam refugee camp.

The incident raises a number of questions including why it is taking place when the internally displaced persons are being rehabilitated; whether it signifies yet another influx of Sri Lankan refugees to Tamil Nadu five years after the Eelam War; and what are its implications for India. 

According to the Tamil Nadu Police Q Branch, all the men - S Thavendran (32) from Mullaitivu, K Thayabararaj (39) and G Sudakaran (32) were former LTTE members. Sri Lanka authorities had detained them after the war and later released them. Both the Centre and State have to be extremely cautious in handling against them as they are former members of the LTTE which continues to be a banned organisation in the country. This important information has not been highlighted in many of the Tamil media reports.

Moreover, they have arrived in Tamil Nadu a few days after the state security apparatus was put on alert after a bomb alert and the arrest of a Sri Lankan Muslim suspected of spying for the Pak ISI in Chennai. That is why probably they have been lodged in prison after preliminary enquiry. According to the media their families are being shifted to a Sri Lankan refugee camp now.

Tamil Nadu has given refuge to over 100,000 Sri Lanka refugees who live both inside and outside refugee camps for over a decade and a half. The refugees get same benefits the average citizen enjoys in the state, including free and subsidised rice, monthly subsistence allowance and old age pension. Over 19,000 of them are India-born and as many as 100 are engineering graduates. In spite of all this except for proximity and for global transit, India is not an attractive destination for fleeing Sri Lankan Tamils. The discouraging aspects include both restriction of their freedom to seek employment elsewhere in India and the restriction that they cannot to stay outside the camp overnight. Added to these irksome restrictions, camp amenities are minimal and they cannot travel overseas for want of travel documents. Though Sri Lanka does issue passports to them they are only meant for their one-way travel back to the home country.

So the arrival of three Tamil families reaching Tamil Nadu to seek refuge in spite these problems is very significant. It an insight to the problems faced by Tamils, more particularly the Tamil Tiger veterans, living in post war Sri Lanka. These include political, social, economic and governance issues.

The environment in Sri Lanka, particularly in the Northern Province does not encourage the return of refugees from India who had been living for over two decades. Even the 11,000 plus refugees who had returned home all these years are not a happy lot. They have painted a grim picture of the environment lacking housing or shelter, jobs or opportunities for earning any livelihood for them. In fact, Sri Lanka seems to give greater priority to the rehabilitation of internally displaced persons of the Eelam War than refugees returning home after a long stay abroad. This can be seen from the plight of Muslim families returning home long after they were expelled by LTTE long before war.  

It is true that Sri Lanka had released as many as 13000 former cadres of LTTE after rehabilitation training and selective skill development programmes. Sri Lanka has also developed the infrastructure destroyed during the war in the North. These include roads, rail, power resources, and telecommunication facilities.

But there is hardly any sizeable investment in projects specifically to provide gainful employment to rehabilitated former LTTE youth. As overall rate of unemployment is high, they have little hope of improving their prospects. There are an estimated 90,000 war widows in Sri Lanka with the majority in Northern Province. These women-headed families face not only existential problems but threats of personal safety and sexual exploitation as well.

The army continues to informally dominate the life of ordinary citizens in Northern Province. Military intelligence has a free run to interfere in the daily life of people under the blanket provisions of Prevention of Terrorism Act.  The continued military occupation of prime land of Tamils particularly in Wanni area and the establishment of permanent camps for troops established indicate that things are not going to change in the near future. 

The feeling of gloom and doom among the Tamils has increased particularly after the much promised election to the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) failed to improve their plight. Through a dubious mixture of bureaucracy and naked power, Colombo has not allowed the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) government to function effectively to fulfil its election promises that would have addressed issues of employment, personal safety and security. And the continuing friction between Colombo and NPC has dissipated the positive climate generated after the election. The clouds of suspicion vitiating improvement in ethnic relations have become even more opaque strengthening the hands of extreme factions both in Colombo’s ruling coalition as well as the TNA. This become worse after the TNA supported the UNHRC resolution seeking an international probe into Sri Lanka’s alleged war crimes.  

Since last year, overseas LTTE elements and acolytes are staging a comeback in Canada and Europe. They talk of Tamil Eelam and glorify Prabhakaran. There increasing political clamour in Tamil Nadu for support to separate Eelam has encouraged overt activity of pro-LTTE elements who have stepped up inflammatory propaganda publicly. To Sri Lanka was basking in the glory of triumphalism at ending LTTE’s 25-year long threat the nation, these developments are causing a lot of unease and even suspicion at India’s intentions in Sri Lanka. Using the information gleaned from interrogations and recovered LTTE documents Security forces have started rounding up former LTTE cadres and sympathisers suspected of helping the revival of LTTE activities in the North and East with assistance from the overseas LTTE supporters.

Suspiciously close to the time the UNHRC was debating the resolution on Sri Lanka, security forces hunted down and killed three ex-LTTE members allegedly working for the LTTE ‘revival’ project. Incriminating documents relating to arms and explosive caches have been recovered from them.

In the follow up operations, hundreds of suspects including a number of women have been rounded up. Many are languishing in prison. As many as 17 Tamil Diaspora organisations have been black listed as pro-LTTE. Over 472 persons have also been individually blacklisted. Any contact with them would attract criminal action. This has crushed the opportunity for involving the Tamil Diaspora leaders inclined to work with Sri Lanka politicians for evolving a win-win solution to benefit the community. The black listing notification and the rounding up of suspects has created panic not only among former LTTE cadres and sympathisers but others as they also can be hauled up anytime by the police.  They fear for their own and their families’ lives is particularly high among former associates of the LTTE. Their fears are realistic as the army seems to have become the final arbiter of many things in Sri Lanka and more so in the North. 

So the latest arrival of the three families of Sri Lankan Tamils has to be understood in this larger, complex context. It is not merely anti-Tamil moves by the Rajapaksa government. So it is high time the Tamil media started analysing issues more objectively to evolve positive results to benefit the harassed Tamils in Sri Lanka.  

However, former LTTE cadres are unlikely to seek refuge in large numbers in Tamil Nadu as does not welcome them but rounds them up and houses them in controlled environment.  But their families can find safety either inside or outside refugee camps in Tamil Nadu. So it is more likely that former cadres prefer to use India as a refuge for their families only. They would probably use India more as a transit point to join their brethren living elsewhere. But as they are  LTTE veterans, their potential for using Tamil Nadu as springboard to create mischief in Sri Lanka should never be underestimated. 

As the general elections are coming to the close, we hope both the Centre and the Tamil Nadu government will quickly get their act together to alleviate the plight of Sri Lanka Tamils. It will require an overall game plan with a series of actions by both India and Sri Lanka to achieve positive results for the benefit of minorities without loss of face to either their country or their people.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies.   E- mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org)

Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No.2095 dated May 9,  2014 http://www.c3sindia.org/india/4010