Role of US and China in India-Pakistan Confrontation Q & A

Col R Hariharan VSM (Retd)

[Here are my answers to a few questions from the media on the subject on June 15, 2025.]

 

1. Why could tension between India and Pakistan strengthen America's strategy to contain China in Asia?  Does India-Pakistan conflicts like the recent Op Sindoor open a strategic window for the US against the communist regime?

I don't think tension between India and Pakistan strengthens US strategy to contain China in Asia. It will involve the US wholeheartedly politically, militarily and internationally supporting India against Pakistan which is a close political, economic and military ally of China. On the contrary, American conduct during Op Sindoor has been to call for peace on both the warring nations - without calling on Pakistan to disband Jihadi terrorist camps which triggered Op Sindoor which triggered the war. 

China has also been careful in commenting on Op Sindoor though it had expressed its support to Pakistan. Its call to India and Pakistan to seek peaceful means to solve issues is a case in point. 

We should not attach too much importance to the US role in bringing peace after Op Sindoor as India had planned to neutralise terrorist hideouts and PAF support bases which retaliated. The US probably advised Pakistan to sue for peace after the PAF air bases were hit because they are handy for USAF to use if needed as its ally Israel's war against Iran was looming in the horizon.

 

2. Why and how does the US aim to contain China in Asia and how does it plan to use its ties with India to achieve the mission?

In my perception the order of US priority in its relations with China will be: 

a. To bring US-China trade to equitable levels. Already talks are on and intermediate solutions have been found. 

b. To control and find alternative sources for essential imports like computer chips, rare earths, solar panels etc from China to reduce over dependence on China. India could become an alternate source just like Ukraine with which US has signed a pact for rare earths mining.

c. To ensure US and allies in SE Asia & ANZUS continue to enjoy freedom of navigation in South China Sea and overt Chinese threat against Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are minimised. 

d. Build closer relations with India and smaller South Asian allies to keep Indian Ocean waters free from build up of PLA-N threat. 

e. India is the only US ally with the longest land border with China. So we can expect the US to provide intelligence and space based support in India's military confrontation with China. However, this will depend upon India continuing to buy essential military equipment/ technology in becoming increasingly dependent upon China from the US. The delay in GE engines for Tejas aircraft and Apache helicopter deliveries are cases in point. The US will continue to pressurise India for purchase of military hardware. 

 

3. Was Trump's abrupt announcement of ceasefire between India and Pakistan meant to ensure that China did not get credit for defusing the situation at some point of time? 

No. I don't think so. I view it in the overall context of Trump's failure to persuade two major conflicts he had promised both Putin and Zelensky to end the war in Ukraine as well as making no headway in the Palestine conflict going on between Israel (supported by US) and Hamas, actively supported by Iran and sentimentally supported by the Muslim world. 

Over the years, US Deep State has created assets in Pakistan Army and among political parties despite Pakistan's  aberrations like giving refuge to Afghan Taliban e leaders while the US troops were  fighting in Afghanistan,  the Osama affair and Pak involvement exporting jihadi terrorism in India. In the last two decades, the US had been building better relations with India to check China's increasing strategic influence using Belt & Road Initiative. This has become relevant to US as India is emerging as a global economic and military power with potential conflict with China on the border issue. India has welcomed the move to build closer relations with the US and its South East Asian allies. Despite its limitations, the QUAD framework is an example of this. 

So, Trump has used his assets in Pakistan and good relations he enjoys with PM Narendra Modi to end the three-day war between them. Coincidentally for Trump, India seems to have planned a quick end to Op Sindoor  mainly to teach a lesson to Pakistan not to give support to Jihadi terrorists for their operations in India.  

 

4. Given the way the recent India-Pakistan air conflict became an arms race event between the West and China, does the US seriously consider extending arms (F-35s), intelligence and technological support to India in its conflicts with Pakistan to indirectly teach China a lesson? Or would the US keep things covert?

I have answered this question partially on US priorities in earlier questions. I think F35 is too costly for India, lessening its appeal as against the F16 which the US had been already trying to push in India. On intelligence and other tech support, particularly on maritime warfare, some sort of cooperation exists between India and US. During ops it can be expected to go up.,

 

5. The US still is an arms provider to Pakistan (read F-16s). There are also talks of  US eyeing Pakistan's mineral resources. Is it realistic for the US to side with India in a conflict with Pakistan to corner China? The recent developments suggest that the US was not really favouring India at least openly. 

Already this has been answered in earlier questions. POTUS Trump is a transactional strategist. So, his decision making will be dictated by (what in his perception) is good for America. India should not be surprised by his actions in critical times. 

 

6. Is the US's China containment policy more focused on restricting Beijing's access to the Indian Ocean Region, which is key in terms of strategic location and a major trade route? Does India play a significant part in controlling PLA-N activity in Indian Ocean?

This is a major subject. China’s visible presence has made India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy more relevant not only to India’s national security, but also its trade and commerce. Conscious of this, PM Modi revamped maritime cooperation doctrine with the launch of the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative March 12, 2015, to build better relations with island nations of IOR - Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles.  India has recently revamped the SAGAR initiative. 

The Indian Navy maintains vigilant watch over key Indian Ocean choke points through a combination of persistent deployments, advanced surveillance platforms, and strategic partnerships. Indian warships are deployed to watch round the clock choke points in Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Malacca and Sunda Strait for potential threats. In addition to this, surveillance assets using P-81 Poseidon aircraft conduct daily long range maritime patrols, offering high resolution radar and electro-optical surveillance. The GSAT-7 Rukmini satellite provides secure naval communication and enhances maritime awareness across Indian Ocean Region.

India conducts joint patrols and naval exercises with regional and extra regional partners like the US, France, Australia, and Japan. These collaborations improve interoperability and extend India's surveillance reach. India has created the Andaman Nicobar Command and INS Baaz to monitor choke points, the Malacca Strait. These serve as intelligence outposts for rapid deployment.

 

7. Does the US also gain, if China remains focused on India-Pakistan tension towards its western front, drawing Xi’s attention from the strategic South China Sea and Strait of Malacca trade route to the east and south?

The answer to the question lies in the four dimensions of China - Pakistan relationship. These are:

a. Internally, China's weakest borders are Xinjiang and Tibet, because Hans are in minority. Historically they had been independent or enjoyed various levels of autonomy. Since 1958, CCP has tried to curb them through Hanisation. China considers Jihadi terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as existential threats to its frontier regions. So, it considers cultivating relations with Pakistan & Afghanistan essential for China's war against terrorism. Pakistan has suppressed Uyghur independence activists from using Pak territory for their operations in Xinjiang.

b. Pakistan provides an alternate sea access to China's east by-passing choke points of Indian Ocean dominated by India and its Western allies. So, China has used BRI to build multimodal connectivity to Xinjiang through Pakistan so that China's shipping resources reduce their risk.

c. Strategically it suits China to cultivate Pakistan which is hostile to India since its creation and China has long pending territorial and boundary disputes with India since they went to war in 1962. This was evident during Op Sindoor, during which India had to keep a watch on China as Pakistan military is largely armed by China and China was providing satellite communication support during Pakistan's military operations. 

d. Globally, China's emerging as a strategic challenger to the US' global influence. At the same time, India is also growing as a global economic and military power, though not in the same league as China and the US. This has led to the US and its Western and Eastern allies wooing India for building better relations to protect their supply chains and strengthen their strategic posture in South and East Asia. China would like to cut down India to size so that it does not become a potential challenger to China in Asia, with or without the help of US and its western allies.  

Sri Lanka: Three things for NPP to ‘Come of Age’

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives June 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, July 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

For the ruling National Peoples Power (NPP) group led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka (AKD), the local government (LG) elections held during May 2025 was one of the coming-of-age tests at national level. By the third week of June, NPP managed to gain control of 192 LG councils although it had secured majority only in 151 of them. According to media reports, though the NPP had no majority in 40 councils, it managed to take control with the support of local coalition partners or post-election agreements. In one council the NPP managed to take charge of the administration with some understanding of the opposition. No doubt, NPP’s political success in this manoeuvre would increase its confidence to face mainstream political parties led by veteran leaders.

But for JVP-led NPP to sustain its quest for national status as a matured group, success in national elections is not enough. Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) founded by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa is a very good example of the fleeting nature of public adulation. It suffered  drubbings in both the presidential and parliamentary elections. Even in the LG elections it could secure majority only three councils, underlining that the Rajapaksas are yet to regain public trust. 

The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) performed a little better, capturing the administration in 21 local bodies. The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) with a score of 13 local bodies, seems to have regained some of its support base. The Ceylon Workers Congress emerged successful only in three councils. Other parties/groups have taken control of 13 councils. The NPP will have to look hard at 22 local councils where it where it could not form the administration although it had the highest number of seats.

But electoral success in three national elections is only the first step for NPP’s sustainability in the national political mainstream. It has to make a difference by delivering clean administration because It is a long time since Sri Lanka had one. National political parties had accepted political corruption as the done thing. The Aragalaya agitation had shown that people are not prepared to accept it and, in the rebound, elected the NPP conglomerate in three successive elections. They expect it to deliver a corruption free administration.

 AKD has realised this as early as December 2024.  The President addressing the heads of government departments thundered “The confidence of citizens in institutional systems has been shattered, and institutions themselves have lost faith in their own authority. This deterioration is due to the corrosive effects of this political culture….While we may not reverse this situation entirely in a year or two, we are committed to making a meaningful effort.”

However, as Lord Acton’s cliché goes "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely," AKD should worry about the after effects of NPP gaining power at the local level, particularly in large municipal councils like Colombo, Galle, Kurunegala, Puttalam and Nuwara Eliya. It is not going to be an easy task for AKD because the Local government system corroded by corrupt practices offer easy pickings for NPP’s neophyte members. The NPP would do well to educate the first-time members on their conduct and accountability to the public.

Systemic challenges

For too long, governance in Sri Lanka has been affected by systemic aberrations. AKD’s good intentions are not enough to improve governance due to systemic challenges. During the month, there were two examples of systemic aberrations right under the “nose” of the President. The first related to the release of convicted bank fraudster Athula Thilakaratne under the Presidential Pardon on Vesak Poya Day, on May 12, though he did not figure in the President’s list of pardoned prisoners. News reports of the incident triggered widespread public outcry and questions in Parliament from the Opposition.

Although the Prisons Department justified the release the convict was eligible for release under general guidelines and it was nor politically motivated, the incident dented AKD’s credibility. The President’s Media Division (PMD) had to issue a statement clarifying that Thilakaratne’s name was not on the official list of inmates approved for pardon by the President. It explained that the President can grant pardon only upon receiving a vetted list of eligible inmates from the Ministry of Justice, based on recommendations from the Department of Prisons.

Preliminary investigations by the CID have indicated that some more convicts were also released after they were falsely classified as recipients of the Presidential Pardon. After this, the CID questioned the Commissioner General of Prisons and widened the scope of investigations to include prison officers involved in the process, as part of an ongoing official inquiry.

The second instance pertains to the appointment of Tysers Insurance Brokers Ltd (TIBL) — a UK-based firm with questionable reputation —as the broker of record by the National Insurance Trust Fund (NITF) operating under the Ministry of Finance. In February 2024, Fraud Section of the US Department of Justice (DOJ), Criminal Division is said to have filed a case against TIBL under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). The TIBL reportedly entered into a deferred prosecution agreement, agreeing to pay a substantial fine and forfeit assets to resolve the charges. According to the DOJ, TIBL was also engaged in a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme to influence Ecuadorian Government officials.

The Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) is probing the case based on a formal complaint from an advocate. It will be interesting to know how the foreign brokerage managed to overcome the government’s strict vetting process as required by the Insurance Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka (IRCSL)

Bringing a closure on genocide allegations

Even as POTUS Trump was making the UN largely irrelevant, Sri Lanka Government rolled out the red carpet for the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) Volker Türk’s visit to the country from June 23 to 26. Sri Lanka had made human rights commitments at the UNHRC to investigate allegations of war crimes and human rights violations. However, they have been on the backburner in the past few years. However, Sri Lanka’s commitments will come up once again during the September session of the UNHRC. At the session, when the High Commissioner Turk will submit his findings on Sri Lanka during his visit, along with reports from key members of the Core Group on Sri Lanka – the UK, Canada, and Germany.

During his visit, the UN High Commissioner met with not only the President and PM but with opposition leaders and religious heads as well. He visited the mass grave at Chemmani, near Jaffna. His statement thereafter says it all: “My visit yesterday to the recently re-opened mass grave at Chemmani was a compelling reminder that the past haunts the lives of many in Sri Lanka…I heard from many mothers during my visit to Jaffna and Trincomalee, as well as victims of enforced disappearances in the south. A woman from a southern province, whose husband disappeared in 1989, for example, she still goes from town to town searching, and that the tears of Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslims are the same… Acknowledgement and truth-telling are important steps towards healing and closure, as are justice, reparation and non-recurrence.”

We do not know what AKD had promised the UN High Commissioner or what stand Sri Lanka will take in UNHRC session in September. But his own JVP party had lost 10,000 to 20,000 people suspected of being JVP sympathizers in 1971 insurrection. In the second JVP insurrection between 1987and 1989, an estimated 60,000 to 80,000 young people suspected of JVP sympathies were killed by the State. Over 20,000 people disappeared after being taken into custody. Of course, Eelam Wars had left its own mass graves and forced disappearances.

How can AKD and NPP afford to ignore this gory history? NPP/JVP will never come of age unless they make accountability for war crimes and human rights articles of faith. Firstly, they can take follow up action on the data already collected on enforced disappearances. Secondly, resurrect prosecuted during the wars/insurrections but abandoned thereafter. For instance, the Chemmani mass grave came to light during the 1998 trial of Sri Lanka soldiers for the rape and murder of Krishanthi Kumaraswamy. One of the convicted soldier Somaratne Rajapakse testified 300-400 Tamil civilians were executed and buried in Chemmani after the military recaptured Jaffna in 1995-96. There one too many such abandoned/pardoned cases.

Tailpiece – Bringing back the Super Cop: Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Shani Abeysekara has been reappointed as the Director of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) with the approval of the National Police Commission (NPC). Abeysekera’s return to the helm of the CID comes after nearly five years, shows the government is serious about independent investigations. His initial stint as Director of CID (2017-19) was characterised by several high-profile probes that drew both praise and criticism. Among the most notable investigations under his leadership were the murder of journalist and Sunday Leader Editor Lasantha Wickrematunge, the disappearance of cartoonist Prageeth Eknaligoda, and probes into the controversial Avant-Garde maritime arms scandal and the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks. He earned accolades for investigating these cases as they involved several influential figures.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]     

Sri Lanka: AKD coming to terms with quirks of democracy

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives May 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, June 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

The month of May saw President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka (also known as AKD) coming to terms with the pleasures and pains of democracy in action. This was brought out starkly in two equally important events during the month. The first was the local government (LG) elections where the ruling National People's Power (NPP)’s vote share declined to almost 43% from the whopping 62% of votes it had obtained at the Parliamentary election. Though the President and Prime Minister had extensively campaigned, decline in voter turnout in the LG election is probably due to lack of enthusiasm among the younger voters in local issues. It also showed NPP has a lot of work to do at the grassroot level to establish itself.

LG elections

The NPP won 265 local councils – 23 municipal councils, 25 urban councils and 217 Pradeshiya sabhas. The opposition SJB won 14 councils. Smaller parties and independent groups scored in 23 councils. NPP came first in 120 councils where opposition parties exceeded NPP’s numbers. The decline in votes secured by NPP should not obfuscate the poor performance in the LG elections by the established mainstream parties including the SLFP and SLPP. In the Northern Province, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) won in 37 councils.it It showed that NPP is yet to establish its roots at the local level, though it had performed surprisingly well in the parliamentary poll.  The LG poll also showed that Tamil nationalism alone is not enough to impress the voters at the local level.

Moment of truth at Heroes Day

The other event where AKD had a moment of truth as President was his hesitant participation in the 16th National War Heroes Day on May 19. The day marks the final victory over the LTTE in the Eelam wars. As commander in chief of the armed forces and the minister of defence, the President usually presides over the commemoration event. Apparently AKD’s decision to attend the event was a last minute one as the invitation for the occasion did not contain his name . His speech on the occasion revealed how he views the commemoration event. The President’s focus was the cost of the war, while honouring the sacrifice of soldiers and civilians during the war. AKD pointed out “Not only in the South, but also in the North, people hold up photographs of their husbands and children on the streets and mourn their deaths. To every parent, their child is precious. So, as a country that has faced such a massive tragedy, our responsibility today is to prevent such a war from happening again in our country.” The speech signified his belief in fostering a collective memory of the civil war in which every community suffered.

By avoiding terms that could alienate minority communities, AKD probably chose to emphasise the collective memory of all victims of the civil war, regardless of their ethnicity. As civil activist Jehan Perera wrote, perhaps it was an attempt to shift the national discourse from one of division to one of unity and healing. In his speech, AKD said “Many soldiers sacrificed their lives to bring this war to a conclusion.” As Jehan Perera wrote, “the preference to use the neutral term ‘soldiers’ instead of the traditional ‘war heroes’ would be due to his recognition of the great divide he presides over.”

AKD’s choice of words in his speech may be beyond semantics to move “away from divisive rhetoric and towards a more inclusive national identity.” Can he really do so in the face of Sinhala nationalist and Tamil separatist rhetorics which had historically fanned ethnic passions in the island nation? Only time will tell.

Coming to terms with corruption

AKD seems to be overcoming the democratic malady of past presidents ignoring politician-criminal nexus. Though Sri Lanka enacted the Bribery Act as early as 1954, it was rarely enforced and its provisions became outdated. The Presidential Task Force on Corruption was launched in 2015 with a lot of fanfare but collapsed due to political indifference. The Financial Crimes Investigation Division (FCID) was initially effective but became selective due to political interference.  

AKD launched the National Anti-Corruption Action Plan (NACAP) 2025-2029 on April 9, 2025. It is a strategic initiative by the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery and Corruption (CIABOC) to reaffirm commitment to strengthening governance, enhancing transparency, and combating corruption at all levels. It builds upon the successes achieved by the Action Plan 2019-2023 and provides a more comprehensive roadmap. The launch of this plan comes after the enactment of Sri Lanka's Anti-Corruption Act No. 09 of 2023. This Act expanded the mandate of CIABOC beyond just investigation and prosecution to include implementation and oversight of national anti-corruption strategies.

The NACAP 2025-2029 is structured around four core strategic pillars: preventive measures; strengthening and enhancing the capacity of anti-corruption institutions and the legal framework for enforcement; promoting integrity and ethical values from early age; strengthening national legal and policy frameworks to combat bribery and corruption.

More than all these, President AKD has strongly endorsed the plan, determined to resolve the fight against corruption within the current generation. Public officials have been given a six-month grace period until May 2025 to align with the government’s zero tolerance stance.

Several old cases of former Sri Lankan ministers and MPs are being dusted up and many are facing legal proceedings related to corruption and financial misconduct. According to Ceylon Today quoting CIABOC sources four former top cabinet ministers and two former state ministers are expected to be indicted in Colombo High Court on bribery charges. These investigations were initiated after 2015, the report added.

Those who voted for AKD are probably heartened to see former ministers Mahindananda Aluthgamage and Nalin Fernando have been sentenced to 20 years and 25 years of rigorous imprisonment respectively, by the Colombo Permanent High Court Trial-at-Bar. It relates to the misappropriation of Rs. 53.1 million for the import of 14,000 carrom boards and 11,000 draughts boards, intended for distribution to sports clubs between September 1 and December 31, 2014.

The CIABOC has filed an indictment before the Colombo High Court against former minister Chandrani Bandara alleging abuse of power and corruption during her tenure as Minister of Women and Child Affairs and Dry Zone (January 14 - 31, 2019). According to the indictment, the former minister is accused of unlawfully appointing HM Chandrawansa as the Project Director in the Ministry of Dry Zone Development. She is also alleged to have influenced the appointment of several associates to various positions in violation of legal protocols.

Former Minister of Agriculture Duminda Dissanayake, arrested on May 23 in connection with the finding of a gold-plated T-56 assault rifle at a house in Colombo, has been further remanded until 05 June. He will be produced before the Mount Lavinia Magistrate’s Court yesterday.

Former Minister Mervyn Silva is facing bribery and corruption charges filed by the CIABOC. The case, presented before the Colombo High Court, alleges that Silva amassed assets far exceeding his declared lawful income during his tenure as Minister from March 31, 2010 to March 31, 2012.

Former health minister Keheliya Rambukwella has already been arrested for exploiting an Indian credit line to buy inferior medicines while in office. His son Ramith has also been arrested in connection with corruption charges.

Namal Rajapaksa is out on bail for alleged misappropriation of funds the Krrish Hotel project funds LKR 70 million from an Indian firm. The CID launched an investigation in April 2025 into allegations of Namal cheating in a law examination to obtain his Attorney at Law qualification in 2010. He was summoned by the CID in February 2025 for questioning related to an investigation into corruption related to a Sri Lankan Airlines deal with Airbus in 2013.

Yoshitha Rajapaksa, former Naval officer, faces several cases of money laundering and dubious deals. He was arrested in January 2025 in a land-related case in Ratmalana valued at LKR 34 million under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act. He has been released on a bail bond of LKR 100 million and barred from leaving the country. He also faces allegations related to the purchase of a house in Dehiwala for LKR 50 million. There are allegations against his investments in the Carlton Sports Network. Yositha was arrested in 2016 during the Sirisena government on a money laundering charge related to the purchase of a television network.

It seems AKD is serious about bringing to book all the political leaders tainted by corruption. It will be interesting to see how AKD and the Rajapaksas handle when Namal and Yositha, sons of former, are convicted in one of the cases now in the court. That is probably the challenge both AKD and the Rajapaksas’ are awaiting.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]     

 

இலங்கை அதிபர் திசாநாயக்கவின் தேர்வு - ஒரு புரிதல்

கேணல் ஆர் ஹரிஹரன் | வீரகேசரி | 11 மே 2025

https://www.virakesari.lk/article/214451 

ஜே.வி.பி என்று பொதுவாக அறியப்படும் இடதுசாரி கட்சியான ஜனதா விமுக்தி பெரமுன (மக்கள் விடுதலை முன்னணி) சிங்கள தேசியவாதத்தை முன் வைத்து இரு முறை மார்க்கசீயவாத ஆயுதப்புரட்சி செய்து இலங்கையின்  சரித்திரத்தில் தனக்கென தனி இடத்தை பெற்றது. அதன் பின்னர், 2014ல் இருந்து அநுர குமார திசாநாயக்க (ஏ.கே.டி)  தலைமையில் ஜே.வி.பி ஆயுதப் புரட்சியை கைவிட்டு தனது மார்க்கசிய கொள்கைகளை நடைமுறை அரசியலுக்கு ஏற்ப புதுப்பித்து ஜனநாயக அரசியலில் நுழைந்தது. அதற்கு ஏற்ப, ஜேவிபி தலைமையில் தொழிலாளர் சங்கங்கள் மற்றும் சிறிய இடதுசாரி கட்சிகள் ஆகியவை ஒருங்கிணைந்து 21 அங்கத்தினர் கொண்ட தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி என்ற பெயரில் அரசியல் வியூகம் செயல்பட்டு வந்தது.

ஆனால் இலங்கை தேர்தல்களில் தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தியால் முன்னணி கட்சிகளான ஐக்கிய தேசிய கட்சி, இலங்கை விடுதலை கட்சி மற்றும் மஹிந்த ராஜபக்ச ஆரம்பித்த ஸ்ரீலங்கா பொதுஜன முன்னணி ஆகியவற்றுக்கு ஈடு கொடுக்க முடியவில்லை. உதாரணமாக, 2019-ம் ஆண்டு நவம்பர் மாதம் நடந்த ஜனாதிபதி தேர்தலில் தேசிய மக்கள் சார்பில் போட்டியிட்ட ஏ.கே.டி. மொத்த வாக்குகளில் 3.16 சதவிகதமே பெற்றார் என்பது குறிப்பிடத் தக்கது.   

இத்தகைய அரசியல் சூழலில் அநுர குமார திசாநாயக்க கடந்த ஆண்டு  செப்டம்பர் 21-ந் தேதி நடந்த ஜனாதிபதி தேர்தலில் 55.89 சதவிகிதம் வாக்குகள் பெற்று வியக்கத் தக்க வெற்றி கண்டார். இடதுசாரி குறிக்கோளுடன் இயங்கும் கட்சியை சேர்ந்த ஒருவர் ஜனாதிபதியாக தேர்ந்தெடுக்கப் படுவது இதுவே முதன் முறையாகும்.

இடதுசாரி அரசியல் ஆணை அந்நாட்டில் என்ன விளைவுகளை ஏற்படுத்தும்? இது இலங்கையில் மட்டும் அல்லாமல், இந்திய துணைக் கண்ட அரசியலில் ஈடுபாடுள்ள அனைவரும் எதிர் கொள்ளும் ஒரு கேள்வியாகும்.

இலங்கையின் தற்கால அரசியலே அதற்கு விடை அளிப்பது போல, ஜனாதிபதி தேர்தல் வெற்றியை தொடர்ந்து, நவம்பர் 14, 2024-ல் நடைபெற்ற நாடாளுமன்ற தேர்தலில் ஜேவிபி தலைமையில் போட்டி இட்ட தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி கூட்டணி 61.56 சத விகிதம் வாக்குகளை பெற்று, 159 ஆசனங்களை கைப்பற்றியது. அதை தொடர்ந்து தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி முதன் முறையாக அரசை அமைத்துள்ளது. அதற்கு முந்தைய நாடாளுமன்ற தேர்தலில்3.8 சத விகித வாக்குகளே பெற்ற தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி எவ்வாறு ஏ.கே.டி தலைமையில் இத்தகைய மகத்தான செல்வாக்கை மக்களிடம் பெற்றது? இடதுசாரி அரசு இலங்கையின் தடுமாறும் பொருளாதாரத்தை சீர்தூக்க இயலுமா? ஏ.கே.டி தலைமையில் அரசு தான் பெற்ற செல்வாக்கை தக்க வைத்துக் கொள்ளுமா?

இத்தகைய கேள்விகளுக்கு விடைகாண இலங்கையின் புலம் பெயர்ந்த (தற்போது கனடாவில் வசிக்கும்) அனுபவம் மிக்க பத்திரிகையாளரான டேவிட் பியூவெல் சபாபதி (டி.பி.எஸ்) ஜெயராஜ்  இலங்கை ஆங்கில நாடேளுகளில் பல கட்டுரைகளை எழுதி வருகிறார்.  அவற்றை தமிழில் மொழிபெயர்த்து மூத்த தமிழ் பத்திரிகையாளரும் தினக்குரல் பத்திரிகை பிரதம ஆசிரியருமான வீரகத்தி தனபாலசிங்கம் இலங்கையின் முன்னணி தமிழ் நாடேளான வீரகேசரியில் பிரசுரித்தார்.

தனபாலசிங்கம் அவற்றில் ஒன்பது கட்டுரைகளின் தொகுப்பை “அரசியல் அதிகாரத்தின் வர்க்க மாற்றம்” என்ற தலைப்பில் புத்தகமாக குமரன் புத்தக இல்லம் பிரசுரமாக இந்தியாவிலும் இலங்கையிலும் வெளியிட்டுள்ளார்.

இந்த புத்தகத்தில் உள்ள முதல் கட்டுரை “அநுர திசாநாயக்க இலங்கை வானில் ‘இடதுசாரி நட்சத்திரம்” ஏ.கே.டியின் எளிய குடும்ப பின்னணியையும், ஜே.வி.பியில் அவரது அரசியல் பிரவேசத்தையும் புரிந்து கொள்ள உதவுகிறது. ஆனால், இந்த கட்டுரையின் தலைப்பின் படி அநுரவின் வெற்றியை சீனாவில் மாசேதுங் தோன்றியதற்கு ஈடாக பார்க்க முடியுமா என்ற கேள்வி எழுகிறது.

கடந்த காலங்களில் ‘இந்திய எதிரி’, ‘தமிழர் எதிரி’,‘மார்க்கசீய பயங்கரவாதி’ ஆகிய மகுடங்களை ஏ.கே.டிக்கு எதிரிகள் சூட்டியுள்ளார்கள். ஆனால், கடந்த ஏழு மாதங்களில் சமயோசித அரசியலுக்கு எடுத்துக்காட்டாக நிறைவேற்று அதிகார ஜனாதிபதி (Executive President) பதவியில் ஏ,கே.டி செயல்பட்டு வருகிறார். இருந்தாலும் ஜெயராஜ் அளித்துள்ள ‘இலங்கையின் மாசேதுங்’ மகுடம் ஏ.கே.டி-க்கு பொருந்துமா என்பதை இலங்கை மக்கள்தான் வருங்கால தேர்வுகளில் முடிவு செய்ய வேண்டும். ஏனெனில், இலங்கை அரசியல் சரித்திரத்தில் பெரும் தாக்கங்களை ஏற்படுத்திய தலைவர்கள் தற்போது காணாமல் போயிருக்கிறார்கள் என்பதே யதார்த்தம். இதற்கு கோத்தாபய ராஜபக்ச முக்கிய உதாரணமாக திகழ்கிறார்.

இரண்டாம் கட்டுரை ஜே.வி.பி-யில் அநுரவின் வளர்ச்சியைப் பற்றியது. ஜே.வி.பி 1980-90 காலகட்ட கிளர்ச்சியின் போது ரணசிங்க பிரேமதாசா அடக்குமுறையை கட்டவிழ்த்து விட்டு ஜே.வி.பியின் தலைவர்களை அழித்த போது சோமவன்ச அமரசிங்க தலைமையில் அநுர எவ்வாறு ஜேவிபியை மீண்டும் உயிர்ப்பிக்க செயல்பட்டார் என விளக்குகிறது. இதில் சோமவன்சவின் தலைமையில் ஏ.கே.டி யதார்த்த வாதியாக செயல்பட்டதற்கு உதாரணங்கள் உள்ளன.  

கட்டுரைகள் மூன்றும் நான்கும் ஜே.வி.பி மற்றும் தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி கூட்டணியின் வளர்ச்சியில் ஏ.கே.டியின் பங்கை விரிவிக்கின்றன. முக்கியமாக 2014-ல் ஜே.வி.பியின் தலைவராக அநுர தேர்ந்தெடுக்கப்பட்டார். அவர் தலைமையில் ஜே.வி.பி 2015 எதிர்கொண்ட ஜனாதிபதி மற்றும் பாராளுமன்ற தேர்தல்களில் மகிந்த ராஜபக்ச தோல்வியுற அநுர எவ்வாறு செயல்பட்டார் என்பதை புரிந்து கொள்ள உதவுகிறது. 

ஐந்தாம் கட்டுரை தலைப்புக்கு ஏற்றபடி 2024 ஜனாதிபதி தேர்தலில் வெற்றி காணலாம் என்பதை அநுர எவ்வாறு உணர்ந்தார் என விளக்குகிறது. ஜே.வி.பியில் உள்ள அநுர எதிர்ப்பின் பின்னணியையும் ஜே.வி.பி-தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி உறவுகளில் அந்த காலகட்டத்தில் இருந்த உரசல்களையும் புரிந்து கொள்ள இந்த கட்டுரைகள் உதவும். எவ்வாறு பாசில் ராஜபக்சவின் ஸ்ரீலங்கா பொதுஜன பெரமுனவின் அடிப்படை செயல்பாடுகளை தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி உணர்ந்து கொண்டு அடிப்படை பலத்தை வளர்த்துக் கொண்டது என்பதையும் அறியலாம். ஆறாம் கட்டுரை அறகலய கிளர்ச்சிக்கு பின் விக்கிரம சிங்க இடைக்கால அதிபர் காலத்தில் ஏற்பட்ட பொருளாதார நெருக்கடி காலத்தில் அநுர தலைமையில் ஜேவிபி-தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி கூட்டணி எப்படி மக்களை தனது பக்கம் திசை திருப்ப செயற்பட்டது என்பதை விளக்குகிறது.

என்னை பொருத்தவரை, இந்த புத்தகத்தில் வடக்கு மாகாணத்தில் அநுரவுக்கு அளித்த தமிழர் ஆதரவை அலசும்  கட்டுரைகளான 7 மற்றும் 9 மிக முக்கியமானவை. அவை தேசிய மக்கள் சக்தி சற்றும் எதிர்பாராத விதமாக பாராளுமன்றத்தில் மூன்று ஆசனங்களை கைப்பற்றியதை புரிந்து கொள்ள உதவுகிறது. அதுபோலவே கட்டுரை 8 கிழக்கு மாகாணத்தில் தமிழரசு கட்சியின் வெற்றியை விமர்சிக்கிறது.

இந்த புத்தகத்தை உலகெங்கும் வாழும் தமிழர்கள் படித்து தெளிவு பெறுவர் என்று நம்புகிறேன். ஏனெனில் அவர்கள்தான் இலங்கைத் தமிழர்கள் உய்த்து வர உதவுகிறார்கள். இலங்கையிலும் தெற்காசிய உபகண்டத்திலும் அரசியல் மற்றும் சர்வதேச சூழ்நிலைகள் மாறிவருகின்றன. இத்தகைய சூழலில், இலங்கையில் ஏற்பட்டுள் மாற்றங்களை உணர இப்புத்தகம் மிகவும் உதவும் என்பதில் ஐயமில்லை. 

பஹல்காம் தாக்குதல் இனி என்ன நடக்கும்?

 

கர்னல் ஆர். ஹரிஹரன்

Published on: 05 May 2025, 11:58 am

https://www.andhimazhai.com/special-section/special-stories/pahalgam-attack-what-will-happen-next

 

பாகிஸ்தான் தீவிரவாதிகள் ஜம்மு காஷ்மீரின் பாகிஸ்தான் வசம் உள்ள பகுதியின் நடைமுறை எல்லை (லைன் ஆஃப் கண்ட்ரோல்) வழியாக ஊடுருவி தாக்குதல் நடத்துவது ஒன்றும் புதிதல்ல. கடந்த 25 ஆண்டுகளில் அத்தகைய 12,037 மோதல்களில் 22,415 பேர் கொல்லப்பட்டதாக தெற்காசிய பயங்கரவாத விவரங்கள் தரும் வலைதளமான https://satp.org கூறுகிறது. கொல்லப்பட்டவர்களில் 4,980 பேர் அப்பாவி மக்கள் இறந்தவர்களில் பெரும்பாலோர் (12,390) தீவிரவாதிகளே,

பஹல்காமின் அருகே கடந்த ஏப்ரல் 22-ஆம் தேதி நடந்த தாக்குதலில் பங்கு பெற்ற நான்கு அல்லது ஐந்து தீவிரவாதிகள் அங்கே கூடியுள்ள சுற்றுலாப் பயணிகளில் இந்து ஆண்களைத் தேர்வு செய்து சுட்டுத்தள்ளி உள்ளார்கள். அவர்கள் ஆயுதத்தைப் பறிக்க முயன்ற ஒரு முஸ்லீம் இளைஞனையும் வீழ்த்தி உள்ளார்கள். பாகிஸ்தானில் இருந்து இயங்கும் தீவிரவாத அமைப்பான லஷ்கர் இ தொய்பா (எல்.இ.டி)யின் கீழ் காஷ்மீரில் இயங்கி வரும் “தி ரெசிஸ்ட்டன்ஸ் ஃபிரன்ட்” என்ற இயக்கத்தை சார்ந்த மூவர் பஹல்காம் தாக்குதலில் ஈடுபட்டதாக போலீசார் கூறுகின்றனர். இவர்களில் ஒருவர் பாகிஸ்தானியர். அப்பாவி மக்களைக் குறிவைத்த இந்த தாக்குதல், பல கேள்விகளை எழுப்பி உள்ளது.

நடைமுறை எல்லையில் இருந்து 200 கி.மீ. தொலைவில் உள்ள பஹல்காமில் சுற்றுலாவரும் மக்கள் மீது தீவிரவாத தாக்குதல் நடத்த பட்டதன் குறிக்கோள் என்ன? இந்த தாக்குதல் மூலம் பாகிஸ்தான் அரசு மற்றும் ராணுவம் என்ன செய்தி சொல்ல விரும்புகிறது?

2019 ஆம் ஆண்டு ஜம்மு காஷ்மீர் மாநிலத்துக்கு விசேஷ அந்தஸ்து அளிக்கும் 370 – வது சட்டப்பிரிவு ரத்து செய்யப்பட்ட பிறகு, தீவிரவாத தாக்குதல்கள் குறைந்து வருகின்றன. முக்கியமாக, கடந்த இரண்டு ஆண்டுகளில் தாக்குதல்கள் பாதியாக குறைந்தது மட்டும் அல்லாமல் அவற்றின் தீவிரமும் குறைந்துள்ளது. அதனால் அங்கே சுற்றுலா வர்த்தகம் குறிப்பிடத்தக்க எழுச்சி அடைந்துள்ளது. உதாரணமாக, 2023 ஆம் ஆண்டில், முன்னெப்போதும் காணாத வளர்ச்சியாக 2.11 கோடி சுற்றுலாப் பயணிகள் வந்திருந்தார்கள். கடந்த மூன்று ஆண்டுகளில் இப்பகுதியில் சுற்றுலாவின் ஒவ்வோர் ஆண்டும் சுமார் 15.13% ஆக வளர்ந்து வருகிறது.

பாகிஸ்தானின் இந்திய கொள்கையின் அடிப்படையே ஜம்மு காஷ்மீரை இந்தியாவின் ஆதிக்கத்திலிந்து மீட்டு எடுப்பதாகும். ஆகவேதான் இந்தியாவுடன் நடந்த நான்கு போர்களில் பாகிஸ்தான் மூன்று முறை காஷ்மீரை மையப்படுத்தியது. ஆகவே அங்கே முன்னேறிவரும் பொருளாதார வளர்ச்சி தீவிரவாதத்தை நீர்த்துப் போகச்செய்வதால், பாகிஸ்தான் அதைத் தடுக்கவே சுற்றுலா பயணிகளின் மீது தாக்குதலை நடத்தியுள்ளது.

இரண்டாவதாக, பாகிஸ்தானில் உள்ள பி.எல்.ஏ என்று கூறப்படும் பலூச் விடுதலை ராணுவப் போராளிகள் அண்மையில் பாகிஸ்தான் ராணுவத்தை எதிர்த்து தமது தாக்குதல்களை வெற்றிகரமாக நடத்தி வருகிறார்கள். கடந்த மார்ச் மாதம் 11-ஆம் தேதி குவெட்டாவிலிருந்து பெஷாவருக்கு 380 பயணிகளுடன் பயணித்த ஜாஃபர் எக்ஸ்பிரஸ் என்ற ரயிலை அவர்கள் கடத்தினார்கள். பாகிஸ்தான் ராணுவம் அணுகுவதற்கு கடினமாக இருந்த ஒரு மலைப்பகுதியில் அதை நிறுத்தினார்கள். பலூச் அரசியல் கைதிகளை விடுவிக்க வேண்டும் அல்லது பணயக்கைதிகள் தூக்கிலிடப்படுவார்கள் என்று அந்த அமைப்பு 48 மணி நேர இறுதி எச்சரிக்கை விடுத்தது. இந்த தாக்குதல் பாக் ராணுவத்தின் இயலாமையை உலகுக்கு எடுத்து காட்டியது. இந்த கடத்தலில் இந்தியா பலூச் தீவிரவாதிகளுக்கு உதவியதாக பாக் ராணுவம் நம்புகிறது. 

பாகிஸ்தானின் ராணுவத் தலைமைத் தளபதி (COAS) ஜெனரல் சையத் அசிம் முனீர், பஹல்காம் தாக்குதலுக்கு முன்னாலும் பின்னாலும் பேசுகையில் பாகிஸ்தான் பிரிவினைக்கு அடிப்படையான இரு நாடுகள் கோட்பாட்டை எழுப்பி உள்ளார். " முஸ்லிம்களும் இந்துக்களும் ஒன்று அல்ல, இரண்டு தனித்தனி நாடுகள் என்ற அடிப்படை நம்பிக்கையை அடிப்படையாகக் கொண்டது இருநாடுகள் கோட்பாடு. மதம், பழக்கவழக்கங்கள், மரபுகள், சிந்தனை மற்றும் அபிலாஷைகள் – உள்பட்ட வாழ்க்கையின் அனைத்து அம்சங்களிலும் முஸ்லிம்கள் இந்துக்களிடமிருந்து வேறுபட்டவர்கள்" என்று பாகிஸ்தான் ராணுவ அகாடமியில் (PMA) நடந்த பயிற்சி அணிவகுப்பில் உரையாற்றும் போது அவர் கூறினார். இந்த மனப்பான்மையின் பிரதிபலிப்பே இத்தாக்குதலில் தீவிரவாதிகள் இந்துக்களை தனிமைப் படுத்தி கொன்றது என்று கொள்ளலாமா என்ற ஐயம் ஏற்படுகிறது.

பஹல்காம் தாக்குதலைத் தொடர்ந்து அவர் பேசுகையில் "நமது முன்னோர்கள் பாகிஸ்தானை உருவாக்க மகத்தான தியாகங்களைச் செய்தனர். அதை எவ்வாறு பாதுகாப்பது என்பது எங்களுக்குத் தெரியும்," என்று அவர் கூறியது இந்த பிரச்சினையை எளிதில் முடிக்க பாகிஸ்தான் தயாராக இல்லை எனக் காட்டுகிறது. இந்தியா தொடர்பான முடிவுகளி பாகிஸ்தானில் ராணுவமே எடுக்கும். ஆகவே இந்திய-பாகிஸ்தான் தீவிரவாதப் போர், ராணுவப் போராக மாறும் அபாயம் அதிகமாகி வருகிறது என்றே கொள்ளலாம்.

இந்திய பிரதமர் மோடி இத்தாக்குதலில் ஈடுபட்டவர்கள் அடையாளம் காணப்பட்டு அழிக்கப் படுவார்கள் என்று கூறியுள்ளார். மற்றும் இந்தியா சர்வதேச நாடுகளுக்கு பாகிஸ்தானில் மையம் கொண்டுள்ள தீவிரவாதத்தை எதிர்த்து தனது நிலைப்பாட்டை விளக்கும் முயற்சிகளில் ஈடுபட்டுள்ளது. 1960-இல் பாகிஸ்தானுடன் கையொப்பமான சிந்து நதி தண்ணீர் பங்கீடு ஒப்பந்தத்தை தாற்காலிகமாக நிறுத்தியுள்ளது. ஆகவே தற்போது, இந்தியா போரில் ஈடுபடாமல் மாற்று வழிகளில் பாகிஸ்தான் மீது அழுத்தம் கொடுக்க விரும்புகிறது என்று கொள்ளலாம். இதனால் பயன் உண்டா என்பது சந்தேகமே; ஏனெனில் 26 நவம்பர் மும்பை தீவிரவாத தாக்குதல் தொடர்பாகவே கூட பாகிஸ்தான் இதுவரை திருப்தியான நடவடிக்கை எடுக்கவில்லை. இதனால் போர் விளையுமா என்ற வினாவுக்கு விடை காண்பது அவ்வளவு எளிதில்லை.

Sri Lanka: Will AKD be third time successful at the polls?

 

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives April 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, May 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

The ruling National People's Power (NPP) government led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD)’s performance in the last seven months will be tested a third time when nearly 17.3 million people vote in the local government (LG) elections to be held on May 6, 2025. According to the Sri Lanka Election Commission, they will be electing members to 339 of the 341 local authorities. These include 28 municipal councils, 36 urban councils and 275 pradeshiya sabhas.

In the last LG elections held in February 2018, the Rajapaksha-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) won 40 percent of the votes. It paved the way for SLPP to field Gotabaya Rajapaksa and elect him as President in the elections held in November 2019. These successes enabled SLPP led by Mahinda Rajapaksa to repeat its winning performance in the parliamentary poll held in August 2020. However, the Covid-19 pandemic and Gotabaya’s poor governance led to economic bankruptcy of Sri Lanka. The people rose up as one against  the government to launch Aragalaya public protests in May 2022. It resulted in dethroning the Rajapaksas, including Gotabaya, from power and sending them to seek cover from public wrath. Ranil Wickremesinghe installed as interim president by SLPP, managed to patch up the economic recovery with some deft handling of the West and India’s goodwill and help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, when the presidential election was held in September 2024, it was the NPP that managed to convert its stewardship of Aragalaya into votes to elect AKD as the 10th President of Sri Lanka. AKD followed Ranil’s copy book economic recovery plan, satisfying the IMF and kept India on the right side, while pleasing the Chinese. He led the JVP-NPP combine to the parliamentary election in November 2024. Probably the first time the President himself was surprised, when the NPP secured an unprecedented majority, winning 159 seats (out of 225 seats) in parliament. Even more remarkable was AKD managed to dent the seemingly impregnable Tamil nationalism’s bastion in Northern Province with the NPP winning three of the six seats. When AKD goes to LG polls, he will be buoyed with the support of 6.8 million voters who voted for NPP in parliamentary election

Can AKD third time lucky, in the LG polls?

AKD has three advantages as he heads for LG elections. In order to encourage political representation for youth, a youth quota of 25 percent has been introduced in the LG elections. It was the young voter who had spearheaded the Aragalaya protests that led to AKD’s election as President and the defeat of mainstream political parties in the parliamentary election to give a majority to the JVP-led NPP combine. In a not-so-subtle reminder of NPP’s Aragalaya legacy, AKD has chosen the Galle Face Green in Colombo taken over by Aragalaya agitators as the venue for NPP’s May Day rally. He has chosen to reaffirm JVP-NPP credentials with the theme “May Day Rally of the People’s Power Building the Country.” Hopefully, this will dispel  the ideological cloud under which AKD came during his last seven months of rule when he had to swallow the bitter pill of IMF doctored economic recovery. If crowds gathering at AKD’s LG campaign are any indication, NPP is likely to repeat its earlier successes in the local body election too.

Hits and misses

One of the major election promises of the NPP government was to reduce the cost of living while enforcing the IMF programme. On the one hand, Value Added Tax (VAT) is one of the primary sources of revenue. Keeping up the revenue stream going without affecting the cost of living is a herculean task. Despite IMF injunctions, the government reduced electricity bills by 20% for households and 30% for businesses and industries. It has reduced service-export taxes from 30 to 15%. Petrol and diesel prices were reduced as electricity and fuel prices play a significant role in the cost of living. As a part of its economic and social security measures the government has increased the allowances for the elderly and disabled people, kidney patients and four-fold increase in case of death benefits for disaster victims. It has also announced an all round increase in the minimum wage in public sector salary by Rs. 15,750 and in the private sector to Rs. 27,000. It has boosted daily wages of estate workers to Rs. 1,700. The enhanced extra cash income for many families is likely to compensate for the impact of VAT to some extent. This can stand in good stead during the LG elections.

According to the President's Media Division, as part of the EU's GSP+ duty concession’s biennial review process, an EU delegation is visiting Sri Lanka from April 28 to May 6. The Head of South Asia Division of EU Charles Whiteley met with President Dissanayake on April 28. During the meeting Whiteley said the EU has a favourable perspective on the current GSP+ review process. He affirmed the EU’s willingness to continue supporting Sri Lanka in achieving further commercial progress. He stated that the GSP+ concessions from the EU are anticipated to encourage Sri Lanka to provide products that meet standardised quality requirements. The EU had voiced strong disapproval over the misuse of Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) by successive Sri Lanka governments. Considering this, the Government is said to have decided to move ahead with repealing the PTA.

The President had repeatedly been telling the collapse of Sri Lanka’s economy was the result of a deeply flawed political system, marked by corruption and mismanagement. The President stated that the current administration is working to rebuild the country through stable and transparent governance, though this transformation will require time. While this is a work in progress, AKD has pointed out that unlike previous governments, which relied heavily on support from the South, the current administration was elected with the collective support of Sinhala, Tamil, and Muslim communities from across the country. His reaffirmation of the government’s commitment to delivering on the promises made to all citizens is yet to be fully demonstrated on the ground.

In Sri Lanka’s history the month of May has a special place. It was on a fateful day in May 1991, vengeful Prabhakaran, leader of the LTTE masterminded the killing of Rajiv Gandhi, former Indian prime minister, who authored the India-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987. May Day rally is also is seen as show of strength of political parties in Sri Lanka. Thirty-two years ago, President Ranasinghe Premadasa was assassinated in a bomb attack by the LTTE, while addressing a May Day rally. Three decades of the struggle for Eelam separatism also ended in May 2009 with the death of Prabhakaran.  In May 2025, we can expect no such dramatic events except AKD and NPP, hopeful of reinforcing their success by winning the LG elections.  

Tailpiece - Fallout of India-Pakistan war on Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka, as a long-standing victim of terrorism, faces difficulty in maintaining a neutral stance in the face of Pakistan-inspired terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam. As war clouds gather once again in the region, Sri Lanka will be worried about its adverse impact on tourism sector, as India is a primary source of Sri Lankan tourism. Any threat to regional stability could deter tourists from other parts of the world from visiting Sri Lanka. Indo-Pak conflict could also disrupt shipping routes, increase marine insurance fee and freight costs of the island nation. It would adversely impact Colombo ports trans-shipment operations and import and export trade. Sri Lanka is an import dependent economy, particularly for energy, food stuff and pharmaceuticals. So any disruption of supply chain could send prices to shoot up. Any regional instability could discourage Sri Lanka as a destination for foreign direct investment.  

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]     

Law and disorder in Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives March 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, April 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) completed six months in office in March. During the month the first-ever Budget 2025 of the National Peoples Power (NPP) government, was passed in Parliament by a thumping 159 votes in favour with 45 against it. President AKD in his speech said “We have come to know of some things only now. When I become president, I will receive a pension provided to an MP. That means, in addition to the presidential salary, I will also receive the MP’s pension. I gave a letter today saying that I do not want the MP’s pension. We have to start fixing this country,” he added.

While such symbolic gestures is likely to endear him to the masses, to the detriment of a few past presidents, his government has much bigger problems to solve in the coming months. These include taming the economy and overcome shortage in food supplies that continue to plague the people.

President AKD also has the thankless task of keeping the state afloat in the increasingly unpredictable strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific, particularly after Donald Trump became President of the US. In this context, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first ever visit to Sri Lanka after President AKD assumed power, scheduled in the first week of April 2025 assumes importance.

However, the Sri Lankan government formally tabled the infamous Batalanda Commission Report in Parliament, provoking once again discussions on the alleged torture chambers and human rights violations that took place during the JVP insurrection in the1988–1990 period. President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga established a Commission in 1995 to investigate the illegal detention, torture, assassinations, and disappearances carried out by the law enforcing authorities at the Batalanda Housing Scheme.

Though, the Commission submitted the final report to President Kumaratunga in 1998, its recommendations were never implemented. All these years, the families of victims covered in the Report, continued their agitation demanding action against the perpetrators of state terror.

Lack of follow up action on Commission’s findings was perhaps the norm followed by political parties as the reports of 35 other commissions also seem to have met with the same fate.  

But the game changed with the National Peoples Power (NPP) government in power. Minister Bimal Ratnayake, Leader of the House, presented the Bathalanda report to Parliament. He said the report was being forwarded to the Attorney General for legal action. He criticised the United National Party (UNP) led government of 1977–1994, for what he called state-sponsored crimes, including the maintenance of the Batalanda torture chambers. He blamed the UNP- specifically for its crackdown on dissent and its role in the July 1983 anti-Tamil pogrom as the part of pattern of repression it had followed. The minister also accused President Kumaratunga’s government for failing to take legal action after receiving the report. He assured President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s government would not delay in follow action. 

The tabling of the Batalanda Commission Report comes after a controversial interview by former president Ranil Wickremesinghe to Al Jazeera, where he faced tough questions on accountability for human rights violations. During the interview, Wickremesinghe was pressed on his record of impunity, his shielding of war criminals, and his failure to address enforced disappearances. He denied that he was complicit in the use of torture, illegal detention, and extrajudicial killings at Batalanda housing complex. Wickremesinghe first denied the existence of the report, before backtracking. He said “There is nothing to be found against me… I am telling you there is no report.” However, it became awkward for Wickremesinghe when the former BBC Sri Lanka correspondent Frances Harrison held up a copy of the report during the interview. She said “It shows the impunity that he is supporting. It’s absolutely shocking.”

As a follow up to the disastrous interview, Wickremesinghe issued a statement on the report. He recalled the turbulent period following the Indo-Lanka Accord, when the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) launched violent attacks across the country. As a minister in President JR Jayawardane’s government, he was responsible for protecting key economic sites in the Biyagama area, including an oil refinery, a diesel power plant and the Mahaweli electricity supply centre. To facilitate security operations, several abandoned houses belonging to the Ceylon Fertilizer Manufacturing Company were allocated for the use of security forces at the request of-Deputy Minister of Defence Ranjan Wijeratne. During this period, several violent incidents occurred, including the assassination of a police officer- and attacks on local political figures. The government focused on restoring national security and rebuilding the economy.

He said President Chandrika Kumaratunga was politically motivated to establish the Batalanda Commission in 1994 to tarnish reputations. Wickremesinghe maintained that he was called before the commission only as a witness, as he was the Leader of the Opposition at the time. The report did not make any direct allegations against him. He rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing and dismissed the report’s credibility. Denying the report was suppressed, Wickremesinghre pointed out that it was presented in Parliament in 2000, but no party, including the JVP, requested a debate on it.

The Commission, chaired by Justice D Jayawickrama with N E Dissanayake as a member, investigated human rights violations in an unofficial Government detention Centre in Batalanda Housing complex.  The 179-page Report provides a detailed account of several individuals and their affiliation to the Police Department. It showed how Douglas Pieris, one of the main suspects of the Batalanda torture camp was promoted to the rank of ASP based on the duties carried out by him during Subversive Insurgency. The terminologies used before the Commission included terms like ‘justifiable homicides’. It also showed how the then Minister of Industries Wickremesinghe instructed the Liquidator the State Fertilizer Manufacturing Corporation to allocate some houses in the Batalanda Housing Scheme to Police Officers. Witness testimonies showed the houses were used as torture chambers and detention centres for unlawfully detaining and interrogating individuals.

 There are other issues as well. Human rights activist Brito Fernando at a press briefing on behalf of victims, appealed to the government to fill 257 vacancies in the Office on Missing Persons (OMP). The OMP is vested with the task of investigating disappeared persons. Currently it had only 27 staffers, he added.

Fernando also referred to the mass grave discovered at the Matale Hospital with 155 skeletons. “We believe that these incidents occurred during 1988-1990. This area came under the purview of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the military coordinating officer of the Matale District during the second JVP insurrection between 1987 and 1990. The Presidential Commission report indicates that 1041 persons went missing in this area and 700 individuals went missing during his tenure. So, we believe that Gotabaya Rajapaksa is responsible for the disappearances that happened in Matale”.

The AKD government has promised to take strong action on the Batalanda Commission Report with a special committee to recommend further actions. Apart from some of the explosive political issues discussed above the moot point is whether the NPP government would like to remind the voters of JVP’s dark past before going for local government elections in May 2025? Moreover, the government’s interest in investigating allegations of human right violations against Batalanda House perpetrators can trigger renewed international call to probe war crimes committed against Tamil and forcible disappearances during the last phase of Eelam War. It will be interesting to see how AKD is able to fulfil his promise to ensure the perpetrators are brought to book.

Hollywood actor Alfred Newman once said “crime does not pay as well as politics.”  Reports of politician-criminal nexus in Sri Lanka during the month seems to prove Newman’s altruism. Can AKD break this nexus?

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]