Col R Hariharan VSM (Retd)
[Here are my answers to a few
questions from the media on the subject on June 15, 2025.]
1. Why could tension
between India and Pakistan strengthen America's strategy to contain China in
Asia? Does India-Pakistan conflicts like the recent Op Sindoor open
a strategic window for the US against the communist regime?
I don't think tension between
India and Pakistan strengthens US strategy to contain China in Asia. It will
involve the US wholeheartedly politically, militarily and internationally
supporting India against Pakistan which is a close political, economic and
military ally of China. On the contrary, American conduct during Op Sindoor has
been to call for peace on both the warring nations - without calling on
Pakistan to disband Jihadi terrorist camps which triggered Op Sindoor which
triggered the war.
China has also been careful in
commenting on Op Sindoor though it had expressed its support to Pakistan. Its
call to India and Pakistan to seek peaceful means to solve issues is a case in
point.
We should not attach too much
importance to the US role in bringing peace after Op Sindoor as India had
planned to neutralise terrorist hideouts and PAF support bases which
retaliated. The US probably advised Pakistan to sue for peace
after the PAF air bases were hit because they are handy for USAF to use if
needed as its ally Israel's war against Iran was looming in the horizon.
2. Why and how does the US aim
to contain China in Asia and how does it plan to use its ties with India to
achieve the mission?
In my perception the order of
US priority in its relations with China will be:
a. To bring US-China trade to
equitable levels. Already talks are on and intermediate solutions have been
found.
b. To control and find
alternative sources for essential imports like computer chips, rare earths,
solar panels etc from China to reduce over dependence on China. India could
become an alternate source just like Ukraine with which US has signed a pact for
rare earths mining.
c. To ensure US and allies in
SE Asia & ANZUS continue to enjoy freedom of navigation in South China Sea
and overt Chinese threat against Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are
minimised.
d. Build closer relations with
India and smaller South Asian allies to keep Indian Ocean waters free from
build up of PLA-N threat.
e. India is the only US
ally with the longest land border with China. So we can expect the US to
provide intelligence and space based support in India's military confrontation
with China. However, this will depend upon India continuing to buy essential military
equipment/ technology in becoming increasingly dependent upon
China from the US. The delay in GE engines for Tejas aircraft and Apache
helicopter deliveries are cases in point. The US will continue to pressurise
India for purchase of military hardware.
3. Was Trump's abrupt
announcement of ceasefire between India and Pakistan meant to ensure that China
did not get credit for defusing the situation at some point of time?
No. I don't think so. I view
it in the overall context of Trump's failure to persuade two major conflicts he
had promised both Putin and Zelensky to end the war in Ukraine as well as
making no headway in the Palestine conflict going on between Israel (supported
by US) and Hamas, actively supported by Iran and sentimentally supported by the
Muslim world.
Over the years, US Deep State
has created assets in Pakistan Army and among political parties despite
Pakistan's aberrations like giving refuge to Afghan Taliban e leaders
while the US troops were fighting in Afghanistan, the Osama affair
and Pak involvement exporting jihadi terrorism in India. In the last
two decades, the US had been building better relations with India to check
China's increasing strategic influence using Belt & Road Initiative. This
has become relevant to US as India is emerging as a global economic and
military power with potential conflict with China on the border issue. India
has welcomed the move to build closer relations with the US and its South East
Asian allies. Despite its limitations, the QUAD framework is an example
of this.
So, Trump has used his assets
in Pakistan and good relations he enjoys with PM Narendra Modi to end the
three-day war between them. Coincidentally for Trump, India seems to have
planned a quick end to Op Sindoor mainly to teach a lesson to
Pakistan not to give support to Jihadi terrorists for their operations in
India.
4. Given the way the recent
India-Pakistan air conflict became an arms race event between the West and
China, does the US seriously consider extending arms (F-35s), intelligence and
technological support to India in its conflicts with Pakistan to indirectly
teach China a lesson? Or would the US keep things covert?
I have answered this
question partially on US priorities in earlier questions. I think F35
is too costly for India, lessening its appeal as against the F16 which the US
had been already trying to push in India. On intelligence and other tech support,
particularly on maritime warfare, some sort of cooperation exists between India
and US. During ops it can be expected to go up.,
5. The US still is an arms
provider to Pakistan (read F-16s). There are also talks of US eyeing
Pakistan's mineral resources. Is it realistic for the US to side with India in
a conflict with Pakistan to corner China? The recent developments suggest that
the US was not really favouring India at least openly.
Already this has been answered
in earlier questions. POTUS Trump is a transactional strategist. So, his
decision making will be dictated by (what in his perception) is good for
America. India should not be surprised by his actions in critical
times.
6. Is the US's China
containment policy more focused on restricting Beijing's access to the Indian
Ocean Region, which is key in terms of strategic location and a major trade
route? Does India play a significant part in controlling PLA-N activity in
Indian Ocean?
This is a major subject. China’s
visible presence has made India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy more relevant
not only to India’s national security, but also its trade and commerce.
Conscious of this, PM Modi revamped maritime cooperation doctrine with the
launch of the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative
March 12, 2015, to build better relations with island nations of IOR - Sri
Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles. India has recently
revamped the SAGAR initiative.
The Indian Navy maintains
vigilant watch over key Indian Ocean choke points through a combination of
persistent deployments, advanced surveillance platforms, and strategic
partnerships. Indian warships are deployed to watch round the clock choke
points in Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Malacca and Sunda Strait
for potential threats. In addition to this, surveillance assets using P-81
Poseidon aircraft conduct daily long range maritime patrols, offering high
resolution radar and electro-optical surveillance. The GSAT-7 Rukmini satellite
provides secure naval communication and enhances maritime awareness across
Indian Ocean Region.
India conducts joint patrols
and naval exercises with regional and extra regional partners like the US,
France, Australia, and Japan. These collaborations improve interoperability and
extend India's surveillance reach. India has created the Andaman Nicobar
Command and INS Baaz to monitor choke points, the Malacca Strait. These serve
as intelligence outposts for rapid deployment.
7. Does the US also gain, if
China remains focused on India-Pakistan tension towards its western front,
drawing Xi’s attention from the strategic South China Sea and Strait of Malacca
trade route to the east and south?
The answer to the question
lies in the four dimensions of China - Pakistan relationship. These
are:
a. Internally, China's weakest
borders are Xinjiang and Tibet, because Hans are in minority. Historically they
had been independent or enjoyed various levels of autonomy. Since 1958, CCP
has tried to curb them through Hanisation. China considers Jihadi
terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as existential threats to
its frontier regions. So, it considers cultivating relations with Pakistan
& Afghanistan essential for China's war against
terrorism. Pakistan has suppressed Uyghur independence activists from
using Pak territory for their operations in Xinjiang.
b. Pakistan provides an
alternate sea access to China's east by-passing choke points of Indian Ocean
dominated by India and its Western allies. So, China has used BRI to build
multimodal connectivity to Xinjiang through Pakistan so that China's
shipping resources reduce their risk.
c. Strategically it suits
China to cultivate Pakistan which is hostile to India since its
creation and China has long pending territorial and boundary disputes with
India since they went to war in 1962. This was evident during Op Sindoor, during
which India had to keep a watch on China as Pakistan military is largely armed
by China and China was providing satellite communication support during
Pakistan's military operations.
d. Globally, China's emerging
as a strategic challenger to the US' global influence. At the same time, India
is also growing as a global economic and military power, though not in the same
league as China and the US. This has led to the US and its Western and Eastern
allies wooing India for building better relations to protect their supply
chains and strengthen their strategic posture in South and East
Asia. China would like to cut down India to size so that it does not become a
potential challenger to China in Asia, with or without the help of US and its
western allies.
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