Col R Hariharan
Sri Lanka Perspectives April
2025 | South Asia Security Trends, May 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com
The ruling National People's
Power (NPP) government led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD)’s
performance in the last seven months will be tested a third time when nearly
17.3 million people vote in the local government (LG) elections to be held on
May 6, 2025. According to the Sri Lanka Election Commission, they will be
electing members to 339 of the 341 local authorities. These include 28
municipal councils, 36 urban councils and 275 pradeshiya sabhas.
In the last LG elections held
in February 2018, the Rajapaksha-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) won 40
percent of the votes. It paved the way for SLPP to field Gotabaya Rajapaksa and
elect him as President in the elections held in November 2019. These successes
enabled SLPP led by Mahinda Rajapaksa to repeat its winning performance in the
parliamentary poll held in August 2020. However, the Covid-19 pandemic and
Gotabaya’s poor governance led to economic bankruptcy of Sri Lanka. The people
rose up as one against the government to launch Aragalaya public
protests in May 2022. It resulted in dethroning the Rajapaksas, including
Gotabaya, from power and sending them to seek cover from public wrath. Ranil
Wickremesinghe installed as interim president by SLPP, managed to patch up the
economic recovery with some deft handling of the West and India’s goodwill and
help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, when the presidential
election was held in September 2024, it was the NPP that managed to convert its
stewardship of Aragalaya into votes to elect AKD as the 10th
President of Sri Lanka. AKD followed Ranil’s copy book economic recovery plan,
satisfying the IMF and kept India on the right side, while pleasing the
Chinese. He led the JVP-NPP combine to the parliamentary election in November
2024. Probably the first time the President himself was surprised, when
the NPP secured an unprecedented majority, winning 159 seats (out of 225
seats) in parliament. Even more remarkable was AKD managed to dent the
seemingly impregnable Tamil nationalism’s bastion in Northern Province with the
NPP winning three of the six seats. When AKD goes to LG polls, he will be
buoyed with the support of 6.8 million voters who voted for NPP in
parliamentary election
Can AKD third time lucky, in
the LG polls?
AKD has three advantages as he
heads for LG elections. In order to encourage political representation for
youth, a youth quota of 25 percent has been introduced in the LG elections. It
was the young voter who had spearheaded the Aragalaya protests that
led to AKD’s election as President and the defeat of mainstream political
parties in the parliamentary election to give a majority to the JVP-led NPP
combine. In a not-so-subtle reminder of NPP’s Aragalaya legacy,
AKD has chosen the Galle Face Green in Colombo taken over by Aragalaya agitators
as the venue for NPP’s May Day rally. He has chosen to reaffirm JVP-NPP
credentials with the theme “May Day Rally of the People’s Power Building the
Country.” Hopefully, this will dispel the ideological cloud
under which AKD came during his last seven months of rule when he had to
swallow the bitter pill of IMF doctored economic recovery. If crowds gathering
at AKD’s LG campaign are any indication, NPP is likely to repeat its earlier
successes in the local body election too.
Hits and misses
One of the major election
promises of the NPP government was to reduce the cost of living while enforcing
the IMF programme. On the one hand, Value Added Tax (VAT) is one of the primary
sources of revenue. Keeping up the revenue stream going without affecting the
cost of living is a herculean task. Despite IMF injunctions, the government
reduced electricity bills by 20% for households and 30% for businesses and
industries. It has reduced service-export taxes from 30 to 15%. Petrol and
diesel prices were reduced as electricity and fuel prices play a significant
role in the cost of living. As a part of its economic and social security
measures the government has increased the allowances for the elderly and
disabled people, kidney patients and four-fold increase in case of death
benefits for disaster victims. It has also announced an all round increase in
the minimum wage in public sector salary by Rs. 15,750 and in the private
sector to Rs. 27,000. It has boosted daily wages of estate workers to Rs.
1,700. The enhanced extra cash income for many families is likely to compensate
for the impact of VAT to some extent. This can stand in good stead during the
LG elections.
According to the President's
Media Division, as part of the EU's GSP+ duty concession’s biennial review
process, an EU delegation is visiting Sri Lanka from April 28 to May 6. The
Head of South Asia Division of EU Charles Whiteley met with President Dissanayake
on April 28. During the meeting Whiteley said the EU has a favourable
perspective on the current GSP+ review process. He affirmed the EU’s
willingness to continue supporting Sri Lanka in achieving further commercial
progress. He stated that the GSP+ concessions from the EU are anticipated
to encourage Sri Lanka to provide products that meet standardised quality
requirements. The EU had voiced strong disapproval over the misuse of Prevention
of Terrorism Act (PTA) by successive Sri Lanka governments. Considering
this, the Government is said to have decided to move ahead with repealing the
PTA.
The President had repeatedly
been telling the collapse of Sri Lanka’s economy was the result of a deeply
flawed political system, marked by corruption and mismanagement. The President
stated that the current administration is working to rebuild the country
through stable and transparent governance, though this transformation will
require time. While this is a work in progress, AKD has pointed out that unlike
previous governments, which relied heavily on support from the South, the
current administration was elected with the collective support of Sinhala,
Tamil, and Muslim communities from across the country. His reaffirmation of the
government’s commitment to delivering on the promises made to all citizens is
yet to be fully demonstrated on the ground.
In Sri Lanka’s history the
month of May has a special place. It was on a fateful day in May 1991,
vengeful Prabhakaran, leader of the LTTE masterminded the killing of Rajiv
Gandhi, former Indian prime minister, who authored the India-Sri Lanka Accord
in 1987. May Day rally is also is seen as show of strength of political
parties in Sri Lanka. Thirty-two years ago, President Ranasinghe Premadasa was
assassinated in a bomb attack by the LTTE, while addressing a May Day rally.
Three decades of the struggle for Eelam separatism also ended in May 2009 with
the death of Prabhakaran. In May 2025, we can expect no such
dramatic events except AKD and NPP, hopeful of reinforcing their success by
winning the LG elections.
Tailpiece - Fallout of
India-Pakistan war on Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka, as a long-standing victim of
terrorism, faces difficulty in maintaining a neutral stance in the face of
Pakistan-inspired terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam. As war clouds
gather once again in the region, Sri Lanka will be worried about its adverse
impact on tourism sector, as India is a primary source of Sri Lankan tourism. Any
threat to regional stability could deter tourists from other parts of the world
from visiting Sri Lanka. Indo-Pak conflict could also disrupt shipping routes,
increase marine insurance fee and freight costs of the island nation. It would
adversely impact Colombo ports trans-shipment operations and import and export
trade. Sri Lanka is an import dependent economy, particularly for energy, food
stuff and pharmaceuticals. So any disruption of supply chain could send prices
to shoot up. Any regional instability could discourage Sri Lanka as a
destination for foreign direct investment.
[Col R Hariharan VSM, a
retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of
intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is
associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com,
Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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