Friday, 5 February 2016

Pathankot attack: Enduring macros

COLONEL  R HARIHARAN  @colhari2 POLITICS  | 7-minute read | 12-01-2016

There is a feeling of déjà vu when we look at our response to the Pathankot attack. There was the same confusion in command and control, poor response to warning of a terrorist attack, abysmal physical security measures (even in the airbase close to the Pakistan border where terrorists freely circulate), leadership without responsibility, incoherent public communication and political one-upmanship between the state and the Centre as we saw after Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists carried out the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai.

There was timely dissemination of intelligence about an impending terrorist attack. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, fortunately, kept mum and didn't utter the usual “we will not be intimidated by terrorist attacks” statement, sparing the nation this embarrassing cliché, unlike his predecessors.

The Opposition castigated Modi though they knew the prime minister never made a statement when everyone expected him to do so. Modi, in fact, struck to his schedule and spoke about yoga!
However, there was a curious difference in the way the Pathankot attack was handled. In a first, National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval took charge of strategising and controlling the counter-terror operation from New Delhi in the early stage itself, though the operation was inside an important military airbase!

One may call it the Doval gambit as the NSA seems to have used it an opportunity to pin down Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif and make him take follow-up action and bring the Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists to book as a tangible proof of his sincerity in mending ties with India. The NSA saved Sharif’s face by not calling in the army to carry out the operation which could have provoked the Pakistani army to retaliate.

Hats off to the NSA; apparently he convinced the three service chiefs to be party to his decision; otherwise it is difficult to understand them agreeing to hand over the operation to the National Security Guard (NSG) commandos even before the first shot was fired (NSG arrived at the scene even before the operation started according to Punjab Police).

The Army was available in the near vicinity of Pathakot and counter-terror operations are its bread and butter. They had been conducting such operations the region for more than four decades. I am confident there exists in the airforce base a standard operative procedure for joint operations with the Army to handle such a threat. So the NSG was flown into the airbase and the results are there to see.

What is disturbing is the national mindset that seems to be the driving force in this country in matters military. During the last three decades or so, the services seem to have been trained to say “ji huzur” to politicians and bureaucrats even on matters of national security rather than take decision and act with responsibility in keeping with their professional training.

To set the record straight, our service chiefs also seem to have become accustomed to this state of affairs for many years now. They are wise men. They have seen an irrepressible Army chief running the risk of being hauled up had he moved two regiments of armour for training in the national capital region without "permission" from the defence ministry (or informing the then minister Manish Tiwari even though he had nothing to with defence ministry). The chief could have been accused of plotting a coup!

The latest demonstration of this mindset is in the sixth pay commission’s draft recommendations. It equates a trained soldier with the lowest rung of untrained civilian staff, well below the policeman, in dishing out largesse.

Coming back to Pathankot airbase attack, nobody seems to believe the apologetic defence minister Manohar Parikkar’s claim that the operation was a success. He only saw some “security related gaps that will be cleared after investigation”. It is the understatement of the year so far!

But if we go by the minister’s body language, he himself probably did not believe it. His discomfort is understandable. After all, the airbase - a prime airforce installation close to the Pakistan border - had advance warning of a possible terrorist attack; yet the six terrorists managed to not only enter the airbase but strike at a time of their choosing and inflict casualties. They managed to stretch the operation for over three days. Probably that is why Masood Azhar, the Jaish chief, is gloating over the terrorists' success in Pathankot.

Moreover, the defence minister, like the service chiefs, seem to have been on the fringes of the decision-making process in the Pathankot operation. The poor man was left to explain minister for home affairs Rajnath Singh's hasty declaration of complete success even before the terrorists fired the last shot in the operation. Where does the home minister come in a terrorist attack in a military establishment will be an enduring mystery, if we ignore the clear pecking order even in case of a counter-terror operation inside a military installation.
The other enduring mystery is the security of airbases. In 1963, I found the same weaknesses in Tezpur as in Pathankot – floodlights of the perimeter not working, heavy uncleared underbrush within the airbase that provides hiding space for intruders and poorly maintained border fencing. The Pathankot airbase seems to be only maintaining this tradition of neglect. The problem is that it was Tezpur way back in 1963. Now it is 2015.

Pakistan has become the world capital for an alphabet soup of jihadi terrorist outfits. Jihadis regularly infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir to create trouble. They do this also in the south across the India-Pakistan border in Punjab through which drugs, fake currency and humans are also regularly trafficked.

And as I grow older, I discover some things never change in this country. There was a lot of lightning and thunder when we made a mess of handling the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai. The UPA's man of action P Chidambaram took over as home minister and swore to rework the whole national counter-terror response system.
He used to submit progress reports regularly to Parliament. But the whole issue faded from the political discourse, public mind and national mainstream. Now he is only lamenting about things he failed to do.

We are back to where we started; cacophony in parliament has overtaken action on national priorities including security threats. So like the child widows of rural West Bengal who loudly voice their woes in village temples in the evenings, we will start our lament all over again when another big bang Pakistani terrorist attack overwhelms us.

We can only wish good luck to the NSA in his new gambit; but I am not prepared to bet on his success because some things never change in Pakistan also. It seems to be our mirror image in its laid back attitude towards result-oriented action.

Lastly, my heart goes out to the Defence Security Corps personnel - the re-employed defence pensioners who had the thankless task of fighting the terrorists. They were never meant to do this. In the Pathankot operation they showed that grey hair and stooped backs notwithstanding, they are no less than their serving peers. They sacrificed their lives without even collecting their One Rank One Pension (or not true OROP) dues which are yet to be notified, just as many of their fellow pensioners are doing.

I hope their widows at least collect their dues in their lifetime. As 19th century poet Arthur Hugh Clough said, “If hopes are dupes fears may be liars.” So servicemen continue to live on hope; what else they have? Enduring macros never change in this country; so we plod on.

[Col Hariharan, a retired officer of the Intelligence Corps, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com. Blog: http://col.hariharan.info.]

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/pathankot-terror-attack-pakistan-narendra-modi-ajit-doval-nawaz-sharif-nsa-terrorism-jihad/story/1/8416.html

Thursday, 4 February 2016

Sri Lanka Perspectives: January 2016

Col R Hariharan

Judicial investigation of war crimes

Sri Lanka government is once again embroiled in a controversy over international participation in the judicial process to inquire into allegations of war crimes perpetrated by both the Sri Lanka army and the LTTE during the Eelam War. President Maithripala Sirisena in an interview with BBC Sinhala Service last week said he would “never agree to international involvement in this matter ...We have more than enough specialists, experts and knowledgeable people in our country to solve our internal issues.... This investigation should be internal and indigenous, without violating the laws of the country, and I believe in the judicial system and other relevant authorities in this regard.”

However, in a Channel 4 news interview on January 26 Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, when asked whether there would not be any foreign involvement as stated by President Sirisena, said the President had not ruled it out. When asked to confirm there would be an international component, the Prime Minister said “we are standing by our commitment to the Geneva resolution.” He said the government would put together a mechanism for accountability and reconciliation by May.
Sri Lanka had co-sponsored a resolution in the UN Human Rights Council on the subject which affirmed the importance of a credible justice process and international participation in the judicial mechanism. So the seemingly contradictory stand of the President and Prime Minister has caused concern among stakeholders and the UN.
The Global Tamil Forum (GTF) spokesman Suren Surendiran said the Tamil community would not accept any move on the part of Sri Lanka to deviate from the Geneva resolution. The Tamil National Alliance has also voiced similar objection.
UN Secretary General Ban ki-moon’s spokesman in response to the President’s statement said the Secretary General wanted international participation in the judicial mechanism investigating Sri Lanka war crimes. His comment was obviously in response to Srisena’s negative response to international involvement in the judicial process.
It is obvious the President and Prime Minister are trying to resolve the differences within the coalition while putting together a viable judicial mechanism to satisfy both the people at home as well as the UNHRC and international community.
Ultimately, a compromise of sorts allowing involvement of former Sri Lankan judges who had served in international bodies would be evolved.  This was indicated by the government spokesman and minister for health Rajitha Senaratne who aid “we have clearly stated that the Independent Domestic War Crimes Court which UNHRC insisits should be established before its next session in June would be manned by Sri Lankan judges. The services of persons such as former judge Weeramantry [a Sri Lankan who had a distinguished career as a judge in the international court of justice for nine years] can be obtained.” 
Moves afoot for a new opposition party

With the United National Party (UNP) as well as most of the opposition Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) members participating in the national government, Rajapaksa loyalists in the joint opposition group in parliament are finding themselves marginalized. Twenty such parliament members announced that they were resigning from the SLFP. They said they would join a new political party to be formed soon. In an interview to the Daily Mirror Basil Rajapaksa, former president Rajapaksa’s brother and minister for economic development has also voiced the need for a new political platform as rank and file of both the SLFP and the UNP  are disappointed with their leaders in power and there was no political platform for them to express it.

Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa is not averse to idea of joining such a party perhaps due to frustration in rallying SLFP members within the SLFP to take on the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe duo The arrest and remanding of Yositha Rajapaksa, former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s second son and a naval officer, on January 30 in connection with a case of money laundering case has imparted a sense of urgency for a political platform for the Rajapaksas.  Investigations into many other cases of corruption and misuse of power involving the family members are also likely to come to a closure in the coming months. The former president who was present in the court when his son was sent to prison called it an act of revenge. He told the reporters “I don’t mind this if my son has done anything, but I know my son is innocent.”

In the same case under Money Laundering Act Nishantha Ranatunga, who was a CEO of Yositha’s Carlton Sports Network (CSN) has also been arrested.

In this context it is interesting to note the former additional secretary in the ministry of in defence Damayanthi Jayaratne who was being questioned in the Avante Garde arms deal case has fled the country without permission from the ministry of internal affairs where she is currently working.  The Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry to Investigate into Serious Acts of Fraud, Corruption and Abuse of Power (PRECIFAC) is investigating the case in which Gotabaya Rajapaksa, former president Rajapaksa’s brother and former defence secretary  has also been questioned.

ETCA with India

Sri Lanka intends to sign the Indo-Lanka Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) by mid 2016. Announcing this, the country’s minister for development strategies international trade Samarawickrama said the agreement would deepen bilateral relations between the two neighbours. He was speaking at the second international investment promotion forum in Colombo.
Explaining the rationale for the agreement, the minister said as Sri Lanka has already signed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India, China and Pakistan and the ETCA would provide value addition to fully turn them to further Sri Lanka’s economic and commercial interests.

However, some of the professional bodies like the Organisation of Professional Associations, the Sri Lanka Association of Software and Services Companies and the Government Medical Officers’ Association have voiced their opposition to the signing of the ETCA with India as they fear invasion of Indian professionals in large numbers into the country to the detriment of local professionals. The Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party which is opposed the signing of the agreement has threatened to launch an agitation against it. 

Pakistan Prime Minister’s visit

Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made a three day visit to Sri Lanka that ended on January 6; during the visit the two countries signed eight agreements covering the fields of health care, science and technology,  trade, statistics sharing, gem and jewellery, money laundering and terrorism finance and culture. However, a $ 400 million agreement for Sri Lanka to buy Pakistan-made Chinese JF17 Thunder jet fighters which was expected to be signed during the visit did not materialize.

According to media reports Sri Lanka cancelled the order due to Indian pressure. Sirisena regime is trying to balance its relations with India which were skewed in favour of China during the Rajapaksa decade. So Sri Lanka’s reluctance to override Indian concerns is understandable as both countries after regime change are keen to build better Indo-Sri Lanka relations.

Unlike his predecessors, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is looking at the relations beyond the narrow spectrum of Tamil issue to forge closer economic relations so that the island nation takes advantage of India's growth story. Even otherwise, India which has close strategic security ties with Sri Lanka particularly in protecting their combined interests in Indian Ocean region. In this context India would be averse to see the presence of Pakistan air force training crew and Chinese air force maintenance crew gaining access to air force facilities in the close vicinity of peninsular India.
Written on January 31,20015

[Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence officer, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka (1987 to 90). He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info  

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, February 20015 issue  www.security-risks.com