India’s tripping point

The annual budgets for the armed have shown declining outlays for modernization, thus affecting new projects. It’s more to do with the government’s mindset

Col R Hariharan|My space|Defence|Funds crisis|

India Legal February 26, 2018               

                             

http://www.indialegallive.com/cover-story-articles/focus/defences-funds-crisis-indias-tripping-point-45470

PRIME MINISTER Narendra Modi is probably happy to see leaders of foreign governments, one after the other, making a beeline to New Delhi because it indicates increasing recognition of India as an important global player. Modi has partly succeeded in managing India’s strategic influence from being overwhelmed by China’s increasing power play in South Asia and Indian Ocean Region. The Maldives slipping into China’s fold, disregarding India’s objections, has shown India fulfiling its strategic dream is still in the making.

The Chinese dragon will continue to roll on because President Xi Jinping is trying to live the China Dream. His strong global pitch is not only backed by deep pockets but PLA’s military muscle to defend China’s increasing global assets.

Though India has overtaken China’s in its GDP rate of growth, surprisingly its armed forces are still to make up their decades of deficiencies even to meet the essential needs to defend the country, let alone safeguard India’s increasing global assets. Nothing illustrates the crisis situation better than the army informing the parliamentary standing committee that it does not have enough money to pay for ongoing schemes, emergency procurement and weaponry for 10 days of intense war, future acquisitions and also strategic roads along the China border.  The report, which the committee tabled in Parliament, quoted Lt General Sarath Chand’s deposition that the defence budget “has dashed our hopes” and “marginal increase in it barely accounts for inflation and doesn’t cater for taxes.”

This year’s defence budget has been increased by only 7.81% to Rs 295,511 crores from Rs 274, 114 crores last year. The defence outlays is about 1.58 % of the GDP, the lowest such figure since the 1962 war with China. It had been steadily declining in percentage terms as the economy expanded. With the chances of collusive threat from Pakistan and China, we need to double it if armed forces are to manage the current threat.

The annual defence budgets have shown declining outlays for modernisation affecting new projects. About 80% of the outlays are for committed liabilities for financing arms deals inked in earlier years. This has meant that the armed forces will continue to grapple with critical operational shortages even to wage conventional war.

But it is not about money but more to do with the mindset of those in government. Successive governments have been tall on talk but short on making the armed forces fit for war. Otherwise, the Raksha Mantri’s operational directives and the 15-year Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan have never received the attention they deserved from the government. There is a clear disconnect within the government; otherwise it difficult to explain the finance ministry failing to approve the 10^th (2002-07), 11^th (2007-12) and 12^th Five Year Plans formulated with the existing threat perceptions.

I am writing this with a feeling of déjà vu; I remember what former army chief General VP Malik wrote in 2012, twelve years after the Kargil war. Twenty days after taking over as Army chief, while addressing the PM and the Cabinet Committee on Security in a combined commanders’ conference on October 20, 1997, the general described the state of the Army as “the spirit is strong but the body is weak,” indicating the high deficiencies of arms, ammunition and equipment.

In March 1999, just before Kargil war, he wrote to the then Defence Minister George Fernandes stating “The army is finding that major acquisitions get stymied for various reasons and a feeling of cynicism is creeping. By and large, the prevailing situations is that nothing much can be done about the existing hollowness in the Army. By denying essential equipment, the armed forces would gradually lose their combat edge, which would show adversely in future conflict.” And it showed up during the Kargil conflict when ammunition for Bofors guns was procured from international market and rushed post haste to battle front. Are we waiting for another "Kargil" to happen once again?

Winston Churchill once said “Generals are always prepared for the last war.” Our generals have belied him; they want to fight today’s wars with modern weapons. However, whether the government is even prepared for the last war is a disturbing question.

There is no point in finger pointing, because the problem is past that stage. Though I am no great admirer of Churchill, I cannot but quote him from War Memoirs, “United wishes and good will cannot overcome brute facts. Truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it. Ignorance may deride it. Malice may distort it. But there it is.”

So our priority should be to immediately make up 10 days war reserve to start with; we can talk of two-front or two-and-half-front wars thereafter. Otherwise, India’s failure to attend to these long standing deficiencies may well prove to be PM Modi’s tripping point in realising his strategic dreams. 

I hope the PM realises the urgency of the crisis armed forces are facing, particularly when the situation along LoC has become incendiary, with the Army hitting hard Pakistan army bases supporting terrorist infiltration, under the gaze of China –Pakistan’s strategic partner – which keeps reminding us of Doklam.

The writer is a military intelligence specialist on South Asia, associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute

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Sirisena at the crossroads:

Sri Lanka government moves to control Sinhala-Muslim tensions by declaring emergency

R Hariharan |Edit Page | Times of India| March 8, 2018

https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/sirisena-at-the-crossroads-sri-lanka-government-moves-to-control-sinhala-muslim-tensions-by-declaring-emergency

President Maithripala Sirisena has declared a nationwide state of emergency for 10 days, after rioting mobs destroyed Muslim houses and businesses in the Digana and Teldeniya areas in Kandy on March 4. Sinhala-Muslim relations have always been on a short fuse. In such confrontations, both the administration and the police have invariably been accused of acting in a partisan way. The Kandy riots also appear to conform to this pattern, though an inquiry is underway.

The communal situation had been simmering in Teldeniya after a local Buddhist was seriously injured on February 22, in a confrontation with Muslim youth after a car accident. Local Sinhala and Muslim elders intervened and amicably settled the matter, paying compensation to the victim.

However, after the injured man succumbed to his injuries on March 3, Muslims closed the shops and stayed home as advised by the police, anticipating a worsening of communal tension. Angry mobs went on an attacking spree, damaging Muslim property in Teldeniya and Digana. Only the inquiry will reveal whether Buddhist fringe elements were involved in the riot.

According to local media reports 27 Muslim-owned shops, businesses and several houses were set on fire by the rioting mobs. At least one mosque was damaged. Police have arrested 24 persons for suspected involvement in the incident. Police have deployed the Special Task Force in strength and 200 army personnel have also been inducted to reinforce the police.

It is significant that Sirisena has taken the extreme measure of imposing a state of emergency only after the government was accused of failing to take timely measures to control the situation after trouble broke out. He has also issued a stern warning to those who indulge in violence, indicating his apprehension of involvement of Buddhist fringe elements in the Kandy incidents. To be fair, Sirisena did manage to control a minor incident in Gintota in southern Sri Lanka in December 2017, keeping it from turning into a communal riot. However, the government has not been able to control hate speech.

The Kandy communal flareup is reminiscent of the Aluthgama anti-Muslim riots in 2014, when Buddhist extremist organisations, the Bodhu Bala Sena led by Buddhist monk Gnanasara Thero and the Ravana Balaya, turned an altercation between a Muslim youth and the driver of a vehicle carrying a Bhikku into an occasion to rouse Sinhala passions. It triggered largescale anti-Muslim riots in the towns of Aluthgama, Beruwala and Dharga in the Kalutara district.

At least four people were killed and 80 injured. Ten thousand people of both communities were displaced and sought shelter in schools. A large amount of Muslim property and houses worth millions of rupees were destroyed. Police had failed to take preventive action before the riots, when Gnanasara Thero egged on a restive crowd, with incendiary anti-Muslim rhetoric, to act against Muslims.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa, then in power, lost the trust of minority communities after the Aluthgama riots, as the extremist monk continued his free run during most of Rajapaksa’s rule. Indeed the Aluthgama riots cost Rajapaksa dearly in the presidential elections, when Muslim and Tamil minorities voted en masse to elect challenger Sirisena as president.

However, in the just concluded local body elections, Rajapaksa used the latent fear of Tamil extremism to rouse the passions of Sinhala rural masses and garner support for his Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Apparently, it all worked out well for him as their support ensured SLPP coming out on top. So, SLPP playing the communal card in future elections cannot be ruled out.

The ruling Sirisena-Wickremesinghe unity coalition performed poorly in these local body polls, so Sirisena needs to retain the minority Tamil and Muslim support now, more than ever before. Unless he demonstrates his ability to control Buddhist extremists, minority support may not be forthcoming in the future. It is a tricky task, because the fundamentalist slogan “Buddhism under siege” feeding anti-Muslim rhetoric, is embedded in the body politic of not only Sri Lanka but also in Myanmar and to a lesser extent in Thailand.

There is also an international dimension to the anti-Muslim riots in Sri Lanka. The Aluthgama riots brought a lot of adverse global publicity. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights urged the government to halt the violence and bring the perpetrators to book. The US followed suit. The EU sent a delegation along with Norwegian, Swiss and Turkish embassies to urge the government to uphold the rule of law. Nearer home, in Tamil Nadu, the Tamil Nadu Thowheed Jamath organised a protest outside the Sri Lanka Deputy High Commissioner’s office, taking advantage of the local anti-Sri Lanka environment.

In the past, Sri Lanka has handled anti-Muslim riots merely as a routine law and order issue. Sirisena, who got elected with the promise of good governance, will have to make a difference in the follow up action after the riots. Whether he can do it without causing Buddhist backlash is a question waiting to be answered.

The writer served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka (1987-90).

Sri Lanka Perspectives - February 2018

Col R Hariharan | 28-2-2018

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, March 2018 issue

 www.security-risks.com

National unity coalition of the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) so far has not been able to evolve a coherent action plan to recover its lost ground after they suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa-backed Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) in the local government elections held on February 10, 2018.  

It has hurt the images of both President Maithripala Sirisena (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe (UNP) and they are trying to retain their hold on party leadership. Acting under such stress, their efforts to subsume disagreements between the two coalition partners and take measures to tackle adverse public opinion on their performance so far have not yielded positive results. Instead, they have courted derisive comments than appreciations. President Sirisena’s cabinet reshuffle saw the swearing in of six cabinet ministers and his refusal to swear-in former army chief Sarath Fonseka as minister of law left a lot of red faces.

In the LG elections for 340 local bodies (24 municipal councils, 41 urban councils and 275 divisional councils), the newly formed SLPP came on top securing 44.65% of votes.  The UNP was a distant second with 32.63% votes and the National Peoples Freedom Alliance (NPFA) polled a dismal 8.90%. The SLFP led by Maithrisena came off with the worst performance securing only 4.46% votes.  The results have increased the chances of Rajapaks successfully returning to political mainstream.

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leader R Sampanthan speaking in parliament tried to play down the significance of Rajapaksa’s victory in the LG eletions. He said Rajapaksa “has always been below 50 percent at the Presidential Election, at the Parliamentary Election and at the Local Authority Election. Rajapaksa had never polled more than 45 percent in local elections so there is nothing to get excited about.”

But the point is, the local government elections were as much a reality check of Rajapaksa’s political relevance as the mid-term performance of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe duo. Rajapaksa was fighting with his back to the wall, trying to regain his place in the sun after successive defeats in presidential and parliamentary elections in 2015. Over three dozen cases of corruption, misuse of office and many other such criminal offences against Rajapaksa’s family and siblings are still in various stages of investigation and prosecution.

​

Even under such circumstances, Rajapaksa has managed to retain bulk of 47.58% voters who supported him in the 2015 presidential poll indicating that most of the loyal SLFP followers have for the SLPP. Energised by the election results, Rajapaksa is riding the crest of confidence as the results have increased his hopes to stage a triumphant reentry into the national mainstream.

On the flipside, the UNP, NPFA and the SLFP together have polled 45.99% votes in the LG election. So there is hope for their chances of survival if they maintain unity in the face of adversity and work hard to redeem public confidence. The coalition has to quickly get its act together in all three fronts of good governance – speeding up action to prosecute those involved in acts of corruption and misuse of office during the Rajapaksa rule,  complete structural reforms through the new constitution and address the national question to resolve minority grievances. Its longevity will be determined only sustained improvement in performance.

Perils of election campaigning

The TNA leader R Sampanthan in a hard hitting speech in parliament on the LG election, referred to Mahinda Rajapaksa  statement “The Eelam is likely to bloom after the Local Authority Elections if the people are not careful” during campaigning. The TNA leader said that this message was propagated “amongst the innocent Sinhala people” who were told, “this is a referendum for Sinhala people in this country. If you vote for the UNP, it will result in an Eelam being created. So do not vote for them. Vote for the Lotus Bud [the election symbol of SLPP].” 

Explaining that the TNA stood for a unified Sri Lanka, he branded the statement as “a malicious, fallacious, false propaganda” on the part of Rajapaksa and the SLPP. He cautioned that if they proceeded with the agenda, Eelam would bloom, not on account of Tamils, but on account of him and the SLPP. He added, “Your Lotus Bud will bloom into an Eelam….Therefore, please resist your temptation to achieve cheap political gains by carrying on such false propaganda.

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The ethnic issue continues to be on a short fuse. During the elections, it is capable of kindling explosive ethnic confrontations. So Sampanthan’s warning has not come a day late, as the SLPP buoyed by the election success, may well use Tamil Eelam scare as the core issue of its campaign in the provincial council and parliamentary elections.  The furore created after the recent recall of Brigadier Priyanka Fernando, defence adviser in Sri Lanka High Commission in London is an example of how a single mindless act can trigger ethnic passions. ​On the occasion of independence day celebrations, ​the Brigadier made a gesture of slitting the throat at a group of LTTE flag-waving sympathisers ​demonstrating in front of the High Commission on February 4, 2018. When a video showing the Brigadiers unseemly conduct went viral, he was recalled to Colombo.

The army headquarters’ contradictory statements on his recall showed the dilemma of the government in handling the incident. Under normal circumstances, the Brigadier would have been given a warning to conduct himself better while handling​ such provocative demonstrations of pro-LTTE crowds.​ But the incident degenerated into Sinhalas versus Tamil issue at home, providing a field day for rival political parties.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info