Monday, 18 February 2019
Sunday, 17 February 2019
Thursday, 14 February 2019
Why Think Tanks Matter in Electoral Politics?
Think tanks' role in Indian electoral politics has to be
contexualised in the current global environment, says Col R. Hariharan. The world is witnessing a rise in populism,
nationalism and protectionism that are challenging the established world order.
Issues such as refugee crises, mass migration, climate change and
non-traditional security threats have put countries and international
institutions essential for their cooperation under enormous stress, he points
out
India is poised to elect a new
parliament in the next three months, in the back drop of three
issues that affect elections world over:
- Cult of ignorance: Issac Asimov, one of the arch priests of science fiction writing, was quoted by the Newsweek (January 22, 1980) as saying, “There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
- Violence weakening democracy: Mahatma Gandhi once said “the spirit of democracy cannot be established in the midst of terrorism, whether governmental or popular.” Terrorism can manifest before and during elections in various forms including extremism, criminal intimidation and violence or black propaganda.
- Non participation in politics: Classical Greek philosopher Plato, says “One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.” This is so true to this day, particularly in our urban areas.
The 2019 general election has
created a great deal of interest as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a
second term against an opposition coalition that has come together to provide
an alternative option to the citizens. So the decibel level of political
discourse is rising and the slanging match between political parties is adding
to the din. While this is how democracy shows up on our streets during every
general election, the influence of electronic media has vastly increased
due to common man’s access to instant information through mobile phones.
So it is not surprising political
parties are making wide use of the electronic media for election
campaign. Election related news is hogging increasing space both in
print and electronic media spectrum. This has triggered a real-time propaganda
war through instant news reporting, trend analyses, opinion polls and endless
debates on TV news channels. Electronic media is offering a smorgasbord of
options ranging from electronic editions of print media supported by visuals to
social media sites like Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and other specialized
websites in various languages with lots of visual content. Often it is
supported by embedded fake information, with morphed visuals masquerading as
news.
This has made it difficult for
voters to objectively understand key national issues. As a result, spread of
rumours and disinformation has increased the threat of electoral violence in
the society, already divided by religious and caste differences.
Role of think tanks in electoral
politics
Think tanks are non-profit
organizations created with the objective of carrying out research and analyses in
specific disciplines to enable a better understanding of issues for evolving
suitable policy formulation to improve the quality of life of
citizens. Think tanks can help a great deal in providing objective
understanding of national issues. They have an important role in the
following aspects:
• Promotion of the cause of democracy
• Specialised research in framing and improving electoral laws,
practices, and systems to conduct free and fair election in secure environment.
• Provide understanding and knowledge related to key issues
affecting the election including foreign policy, governance, development and
national security.
• Keep public informed on the implications of developments during
the run up to the election.
• Advisory function to the election commission
• Influencing policy making on issues that affect democratic
elections
• Electoral forecasting and trend analyses.
Role against Social media disruptors
Think tanks can develop the
knowledge and expertise to combat social media disruption, which can play havoc
with the electoral environment and peaceful conduct of elections. In addition
they can -
• Use social media for proactive affirmative action against
anti-democratic forces in multi-media format.
• Disrupt spread of fake news and rumours before and during
elections.
• Provide advice on systemic improvements to neutralise social
media threats to secure conduct of elections..
Are think tanks ready?
India has a very large number of
think tanks varying in their quality of performance. Some of them serve
ideology-based perspective on various issues affecting the quality of life of
people.
• Competency and leadership: Many
think tanks are handicapped by a culture that does not encourage vision oriented
research and analysis. This is compounded by lack dynamic leadership to
motivate the organization. As a result they stagnate in their performance.
• Vision and goal orientation: Unless there is goal orientation towards contributing to a national
vision, think tanks would not be fulfilling their role.
• Financial constraints: Lack of
public philanthropy has made think tanks dependent upon government grants or
foreign contributions. Unless there is financial autonomy at least to some extent,
think tanks will not be able to make objective contribution.
• Trust deficit: Some think
tanks are linked to international think tanks with goals contrary to government
policy. This has drawn adverse notice of media and security agencies. This
increases their trust deficit among the public as many people believe think
tanks’ functions are limited to charity or social causes. So think tanks in
other disciplines are not given the recognition they deserve.
• Transparency: Transparency
International (TI) has found that lack of transparency in funding sources is a
common feature even in many well recognized think tanks. TI survey
of 27 think tanks of global repute found only ten think tanks were highly
transparent and seven broadly transparent in disclosing who were funding them.
Six think tanks were opaque, one was deceptive and three did not disclose the
details.
• Networking: For real value addition,
think tanks have to network with academia, administration, civil society and
other think tanks relevant to their discipline. Then only their research will
be broad based to meaningfully serve their objectives.
Management legend Peter Drucker in
his seminal book Managing the Non-Profit Organisation [1989] provides excellent examples and explanations of mission,
leadership, resources, marketing, goals, and much more for think tanks. For
effective functioning of think tanks, the leadership should ponder over five
questions on their mission, on their customer, on what the customer values, on
their results and their plans. This is what think tanks in our country need to
do to continue to be relevant to the people of the country.
[The writer, a retired
military intelligence specialist on South Asia, has been associated with a
number of think tanks including DESH, the Chennai Centre for China Studies, and
South Asia Analysis Group. This is an excerpt from the author’s keynote address
delivered at a seminar, Why Think Tanks Matter in Electoral Politics, organized
by the Chennai Centre for China Studies jointly with the National Maritime
Foundation (Southern Regional Chapter) and Press Institute of India under the
auspices of Think Tanks Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania on
January 31 this year at PII-RIND.]
Sunday, 3 February 2019
ARUN HARIHARAN'S BLOG: DR V HARIHARAN- A FREEDOM FIGHTER, SOCIAL REFORMER...
ARUN HARIHARAN'S BLOG: DR V HARIHARAN- A FREEDOM FIGHTER, SOCIAL REFORMER...: Dr V Hariharan, 1941 Our grandfather, Dr V Hariharan a true Gandhian, freedom fighter, social reformer and a pioneer of the cooperativ...
Sri Lanka Perspectives: January 2019
Politics of presidential election
Media is agog with speculative
articles on the next presidential election after President
Maithripala Sirisena completed four years in office on January 8, 2019.
According to the Constitution, the President may at any time after the four
years declare from “the commencement of his first term of office by
proclamation declare his intention of appealing to the people for a mandate to
hold office, by election, for a further term.” The Constitution further
stipulates that the poll for the Presidential election shall be held not less
than one month and not more than two months before the expiration of the term
of office of the President in office. This means the presidential
election has to be held between November 8 and December 8, 2019.
This has triggered widespread
expectation that President Sirisena would call for the presidential election to
restore his political credibility eroded after the failure of his misconceived
“constitutional coup” to replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with
former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Though President Sirisena had initially
declared that he was not interested in a second term, the changed political
equation with the PM may force him to seek a second term to restore his
reputation as the leader of the SLFP. Having burnt his bridges with PM
Wickremesinghe and the United National Party (UNP) who support him to come to
power, Sirisena needs the support of both the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna
(SLPP) and Rajapaksa-loyalists within the SLFP.
This was further confirmed when
SLFP secretary Dayasiri Jayasekara had announced that President Sirisena would
be the SLFP candidate in the forthcoming presidential poll. The President’s
close confidante and SLFP deputy leader Nirmal Siripala de Silva also has said
the same. These announcements, probably made with the consent of President
Sirisena, have not been well received by the SLPP. Many of the SLPP members
have declared that Sirisena should not be backed by the SLPP and the
presidential candidate should be from the SLPP.
Probably, President Sirisena still
seems to be hopeful of winning back the support of right wing
Buddhist lobby. He is reported to be favourably considering a recommendation
from the Minister for Buddha Sasana to pardon Gnanasara Thera, leader of the
Bodu Bala Sena, a Buddhist fringe group, involved in hate campaign and attacks
on Muslims during the Rajapaksa rule. The monk was convicted in August 2018 by
the Court of Appeal on four charges of contempt of court for disturbing and
threatening the state counsel in Homogama magistrate’s court subsequent to the
refusal of bail to military intelligence officers suspected to be involved in a
case of disappearance. The monk was sentenced to 19 years rigorous imprisonment
to run concurrently and completed within 6 years. Earlier in May 2018, the monk
was convicted of contempt of court and sentenced to six months rigorous
imprisonment for intimidating victim-witness Mrs Sandya Ekneligoda in the case
of enforced disappearance of political cartoonist Prageeth
Ekneligoda.
The controversial former defence
secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa also appears to be nursing ambitions to contest
the presidential election as he is said to enjoy the support of Sinhala
nationalist elements and Buddhist clergy. However, Rajapaksas do not
seem to be keen to propose him as the Pohotuwa party (as SLPP is known)
candidate, presumably because Mahinda Rajapaksa does not seem to have made up
his mind on his own future. Moreover, Gotabaya is a US citizen and
will not be eligible to contest the poll unless he renounces his American
citizenship. He does not seem to have taken a decision on this issue so far.
Increasing external economic
vulnerability
Sri Lanka has paid a high cost for
the 51-day political crisis that brought the country’s economic activity to a
grinding halt. The October 26, 2018 crisis not only exposed Sri Lanka’s
limitations in servicing its huge foreign debt burden but underlined the
country’s strategic dependence upon India and China, which chipped in with
money to ward off Central Bank’s imminent financial crisis. This is
likely to aggravate Sri Lanka’s problems in delicately balancing its relations
with the two Asian giants.
Sri Lanka Central Bank Governor
Indrajit Coomaraswamy addressing the 33rd annual sessions of the Sri Lanka
Economic Association, explained the measures he had taken to overcome the
“political tsunami” as he called the economic crisis. He said the country’s
good international and regional relations, especially with India and China,
enabled the country to escape serious debt crisis it face in the wake of the
political crisis. Sri Lanka will have to pay $ 5.9 billion in foreign debt
repayments in 2019 and the first instalment was $1.6 billion. Sri Lanka had
repaid $1 billion by drawing on its foreign reserves; this has brought it to a
“critically low level.”
He said the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) had halted the release of the final tranche of the Extended Credit
Facility when the political crisis occurred. However, the IMF was now
supportive of the government’s stabilization measures and he expected the IMF
to release the fund in mid-February when the fiscal data for 2018 would be
available.
The Governor stressed the importance of the assistance of India
and China in supporting the reserves. “Sri Lanka’s friends, the two regional
giants, have stepped in to support us when we were pushed into a rather
difficult corner.” Their combined assistance should replenish the reserves in
the next few months. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) agreed to
provide a $400 million currency swap facility to the Central Bank. He said “The
RBI’s very rapid and timely assistance will serve to boost investor confidence
by supporting Sri Lanka to maintain an adequate level of external reserves.”
The RBI was likely to provide a line of credit of US$ 1 billion early.
The Bank of China (BOC) has offered $300 million loan tied over
the immediate need. Dr Coomaraswamy said both the RBI and the BOC were
considering plans to scale up their offers to $1 billion each. He stated that
the Chinese loan was likely to come at an interest of about 5.5 percent. In
addition to this, the Central was also trying to scale up a $1 billion loan
received from China Development Bank in 2018 by a further sum of $500 million,
which was expected to be available in February.
He further explained other measures taken to be prepared for
“the worst and we learnt a lesson on October 26, 2018. We don’t know what
political tsunami might come next. So we have to plan and get the money as fast
as possible.” The proposed measures included issue of an International
Sovereign Bond (ISB) to borrow up to $2 billion; the Bank of Ceylon and the
Peoples Bank raising lines of credit on behalf of the government. However,
these would further raise the debt burden of the country.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of
Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He
is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis
Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai.
E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info
Friday, 1 February 2019
Perspectives on political crises in Sri Lanka and Maldives
Colonel R Hariharan | World Focus | January 2019 issue | www.worldfocus.in
Introduction
Recently India’s Indian Ocean neighbours – Sri Lanka and
Maldives – witnessed political crises after heads of state attempted to tinker
with constitution to suit their political ends, plunging the country into chaos
and uncertain future. This was due to fractious and personality driven domestic
politics practiced in both the countries. However, they have managed to defuse
the crises through democratic process, thanks to their own internal political
dynamics and external pressure, mainly from the US and the European Union.
Both the island nations are important partners in India’s
national and Indian Ocean security template. So it becomes imperative for
India to understand the external influences, notably China, which played a part
in the crises situation.
Sri Lanka political crisis and its aftermath
President Maithripala
Sirisena in a dramatic move on October 26, 2018 installed former president Mahinda
Rajapaksa as Prime Minister, and sacked his coalition partner PM Ranil
Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party (UNP), although it was the
support of Wickremesinghe and the UNP that enabled him to, defeat Rajapaksa in
the presidential election. The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe coalition had created
the signature brand ‘Yahapalana’ (good governance) for their government to
restore good governance and bring the perpetrators of corrupt acts during the
Rajapaksa regime to book. So the President’s action was condemned as a betrayal
of the people, who voted him to power.
The President prorogued
the parliament till November 16, preventing Wickremesinghe from seeking a vote
of confidence in parliament. After the President’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP)-led United Peoples Front Alliance (UPFA) and the pro-Rajapaksa Joint
Opposition (JO) group withdrew support to the Wickremesinghe government, he
ordered the dissolution of parliament and holding of fresh elections in January
2019.
However, Rajapaksa government
could not legitimize itself after a defiant Karu Jayasuriya, the speaker of
parliament declared the President’s action unconstitutional; he went ahead and
convened the parliament to pass a vote of confidence in Wickremesinghe
government twice.
The political
developments in Sri Lanka stunned the US and the EU as they had supported the
forming of Sirisena and Wickremesinghe coalition to keep Rajapaksa out of
power. During his rule as President, Rajapaksa had defied their demand for
investigating alleged war crimes during the Eelam War and other aberrations of
governance and human rights violations. The Western powers and India were
uncomfortable with Rajapaksa developing cosy relations with China. He had
facilitated huge Chinese investments in infrastructure projects like the
Hambantota port complex strengthening China’s presence in the IOR.
The US came out publicly
in support of the speaker’s request to the President to constitutionally
resolve the issue. After PM Rajapaksa could not muster majority support in
parliament, he resigned when the supreme court held the president’s actions
unconstitutional. President Sirisena had no option but to reinstate
Wickremesinghe as PM on December 16, 2018 ending political uncertainty that
lasted 51 days.
Though the crisis has
been defused, there is uncertainty about the future as President Sirisena has
openly expressed his aversion to work with PM Wickremesinghe after the latter
assumed office.
India, which always
haunts Sri Lanka politics with its “Big Brother” image, maintained a
surprisingly low profile. There was probably an attempt by unknown anti-Indian
elements when a news report hinting at the Indian intelligence agency RAW’s
hand in a suspected plot to assassinate President Sirisena and former defence
secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, surfaced. This had probably further aggravated
Preident Sirisena’s suspicion about a conspiracy hatched by the UNP to rid of
him.
According to a media report, President Sirisena had talked about the plot
at a cabinet meeting. Later he spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to clarify
that he never alleged India was behind the assassination plot. India did not
allow such provocations to affect its decision to keep out of any political
controversy during the crisis period.
On the other hand, China
was happy to see Rajapaksa, its favourite Sri Lankan leader, staging a comeback
to power. China’s ambassador in Colombo Chen Xueyuan was one of the first
diplomats to meet Rajapaksa soon after he was sworn in as PM. He presented a
congratulatory message from PM Li Keqiang. After social media took
China to task for supporting Rajapaksa, China clarified that it did not intend
to interfere in Sri Lanka’s internal affairs. Chinese foreign ministry
spokesman said that China was closely following the changes in the situation in
Sri Lanka. “We have maintained communication with the relevant political
parties in Sri Lanka. The Chinese ambassador met Wickremesinghe and the new PM
Rajapaksa” he added.
Maldives political crisis
The recent political crisis in Maldives, Asia’s smallest country
of 26 atolls located in the Indian Ocean, ended with the election of President
Ibrahim Mohammed Solih. He defeated the outgoing President Abdulla Yameen who
had become increasingly autocratic. The presence of Prime Minister Narendra
Modi at the swearing in ceremony of President Solih indicated the importance
India attached to his election. This was followed by President Solih’s maiden
state visit to New Delhi during which he was warmly welcomed. At a joint press
conference, PM Modi announced a grant of $1.4 billion in budget support,
currency swap agreements, and concessional lines of credit to Maldives to tide
over its financial crunch.
The political crisis has to be understood in the background of
Maldives’ history of periodic political turbulence and faction fights in its
inbred society ever since it became a republic in November 11, 1968. President
Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who ruled for three decades after he was elected for the
first time in 1978, brought some stability and boosted international tourism,
which is the country’s main source of income. However, his autocratic methods
and suppression of dissent made his six terms of presidency controversial.
Gayoom managed to survive three coup attempts in 1980, 1983 and
1988. The 1988 coup attempt, organized by a Maldivian businessman, using
mercenaries of former Sri Lankan Tamil insurgency organization PLOTE was
crushed with the help of Indian army parachute battalion flown in to round up
the plotters, who had occupied Hulule airport. However, during his last term
Gayoom’s ruling Maldivian Peoples Party (MPP) was increasingly facing popular
demand for political reforms.
Due to increasing pressure from Mohammed Nasheed, a journalist,
who founded the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) in 2003, President Gayoom
allowed gradual reforms. A new constitution was approved in 2008 and Nasheed
was elected president under the new constitution.
However, Nasheed faced huge debt left by previous government,
economic downturn dude to after-effects of 2004 tsunami leading to
unemployment, corruption and drug menace. In spite of this, social welfare
benefits were introduced for the aged and single parents. In 2011, President
Nasheed faced increasing social and political unrest and demands for Islamic
rule. He resigned after army and police elements mutinied in February 2012.
Vice President Mohammed Waheed was sworn in as president. Nasheed was arrested
and tried, under questionable circumstances, for terrorism and sentenced to 13
years in jail.
In the elections held in 2013, Nasheed was elected in the first
count; however, supreme court annulled the election. In the re-run of the
election Abdulla Yameen, half brother of former president Gayoom, was elected
president.
However, President Yameen surprised India, which has been a
traditional ally and security guarantor, by adopting an increasingly pro-China
stand. Chinese investments which had been surging since 2012 made a huge leap
during Yameen’s reign. President Xi Jinping made a historic visit to
Maldives in September 2014, bringing China’s ties closer with the Maldives.
President Yameen made a three-day visit to Beijing and signed 12 agreements
including a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and a tariff free import-export trade
deal with China. China is supporting multiple housing projects, a power plant,
a bridge costing $200 million connecting Male to the Hulule airport and a water
and sewage treatment plant. The three projects alone are worth $1.5 billion,
more than 40 percent of Maldives GDP.
These developments caught India off-guard. India was concerned
when China was said to be looking to establish a joint ocean observation
station at the westernmost atoll of Makhnudhoo not far from India. It will
provide a vantage point to China overlooking the important sea route through
which ships pass. Former president Nasheed has said China had already acquired
17 islands in Maldives and there was no clarity about China’s activities in
these islands.
In the words of the Beijing tabloid Global Times, President
Abdulla Yameen’s government had watered down the country’s traditional ‘India
first’ foreign policy to successful court investment and assistance from New
Delhi’s geopolitical rivals – China, Pakistan – and Saudi Arabia. It has also
jailed several pro-India opposition figures, including former presidents
Mohamed Nasheed and Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.
As political opposition against President Yameen gathered
momentum, the supreme court ordered the release of nine political prisoners and
reinstating 12 parliament members, which increased the potential to
impeach Yameen. On February 5, 2018 President Yameen declared a state of
emergency and ordered the arrest of two judges of the supreme court including
the chief justice. Mass arrests followed and many constitutional rights
were suspended. Crackdown on the media and anti-government rallies was carried
out across the country. India criticized the state of emergency, called upon
Maldives to observe the supreme court ruling to release the political
prisoners. China warned India not to interfere in the internal affairs of
Maldives.
Way forward
It is not enough to study the
recent crises in Sri Lanka and Maldives through the traditional template of
India- China rivalry. India-China relations are undergoing possibly a reset
after PM Modi and President Xi Jinping had an informal summit at Wuhan in July
2018 in a bid to mend the relations between the two countries frayed after the
2017 military standoff between their armies at Doklam.
A series of follow-up
decisions are being taken by the two countries thereafter to maintain and
develop cordial relations. However, China’s conduct in Sri Lanka and
Maldives, two important partners in the BRI would probably indicate how
the India-China relations would shape up in the near future and impact the
security environment not only in the two island nations but IOR as well. [Written on December 19,
2018]
[Col R Hariharan, a retired
MI specialist on South Asia, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China
Studies. He served as head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping
Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. His writes analytical articles in the
areas of specialization including South Asian countries, terrorism and
insurgency and China’s relations with South Asian countries and littorals of
the Indian Ocean Region. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com; blog http://col.hariharan.info ]
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