Sri Lanka Perspectives: June 2019

 Col R Hariharan | 30-6-2019 | Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, May 2019 | www.security-risks.com |

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During the month, Sri Lanka continued to struggle to recover from the after-shock of Easter Sunday suicide attacks by National Thowheed Jamath (NTJ) terrorists. It brought the nation’s life line - the tourism industry – to a grinding halt with many countries including India, issuing travel advisories against visiting Sri Lanka; however, these were either withdrawn or toned down in the first two weeks of the month. Despite this tourist arrivals continue to languish.

Under these circumstances, the short visit of PM Narendra Modi at the start of his second tenure to Colombo, the first by a foreign leader after the terror attacks, was welcomed in Sri Lanka. His trip indicated India’s show of solidarity with Sri Lanka in times of distress. During his brief visit, PM Modi held discussions with all the main actors, including the President, the PM and the Leader of Opposition Mahinda Rajapaksa. We can expect the visit to result in greater cooperation and coordination between the intelligence and security agencies in the counter terrorism efforts of both countries.

The political gridlock between President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe continued to dog the performance of the government.  The Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) inquiry has revealed startling details of systemic failure which resulted in preventing the Easter Day attacks, despite prior information. The testimonies of former Defence Secretary Fernando, sacked IG Jayasundara and the former SIS chief Mendis have revealed serious gaps in communication and coordination between the SIS and other security arms of the government, though all of them functioned under the President. Overall, their evidence revealed lack of security consciousness in the functioning of the departments under the President.

The President has claimed the PSC was “a drama scripted at Temple Trees” (PM’s official residence), forbidding officials from responding to the PSC. For political reasons the Joint Opposition, the SLFP and former President Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) have boycotted the PSC. Even PM Wickremesinghe and the UNP members have been indifferent in following the PSC proceedings. All parties seem to be more interested in fielding a no confidence motion against former minister Rishad Bathiudeen, leader of the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC), which has become a bone of contention between the opposition and the UNP.   

Security agencies in their follow up action have arrested about 2,389 suspects; 186 of them are being detained under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA).  Based on the information given by one of the five suspects arrested in Jeddah and brought back to Sri Lanka, police have recovered over 300 gelignite sticks, 1000 detonators, 485 rounds of T56 ammunition and several other explosive material in Kattankudy. The Ibrahim family, which produced two of the nine terrorists who took part in the Easter Day attacks, is being investigated thoroughly for its sources of finance and political affiliations with Muslim leaders like Bathiudeen. The Indian National Investigation Agency (NIA) acting upon information provided by Sri Lanka arrested IS sympathisers in Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu who had social media links of NTJ chief  Zahran. The NIA arrested Mohammed Azharudeen, said to be the mastermind of the IS Tamil Nadu module on June 12, 2019. 

As a part of tightening its security, Sri Lanka proposes to deport about 8000 foreigners who are overstaying their visas. These include among others, 1680 Indians, 936 Pakistanis and 683 Chinese.  

Anti-Muslim backlash

However, after the outburst of anti-Muslim riots in the northwest, Buddhist nationalist fringe continued to whip up anti-Muslim hate narrative targeting Muslim leaders and Muslim owned business. Many political leaders supported the Buddhist monk and parliamentarian - Athurelive Rathana Thero - when he went on indefinite fast in Kandy demanding the removal of Muslim governors Azath Salley and MLAM Hizbullah and cabinet minister Rishad Bathiudeen for alleged links with Islamic radical organisations. Thousands of people marched in support of the demand, forcing the two Muslim governors and nine Muslim ministers to resign en masse. The episode dramatically showed the effect of growing anti-Muslim narrative in the socio-political discourse.

Leaders of Muslim community leaders have repeatedly been appealing to Muslims to fully cooperate with the government. In spite of this, hasty and overzealous actions by the police has increased the feeling of insecurity among Muslims. Typical was the arrest and detention of  Dr Mohammad Shafi of the Kurunegala Teaching Hospital for over a month under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA),  based on rumours of the doctor carrying out 4000  illegal sterilizations of Sinhalese women. The CID’s 200-page report on the case filed before the Kurunegala magistrate court revealed Kurnegala police officials’ elaborate plot to frame the doctor and use the media to create panic to justify his arrest. Police high command is said to be mulling action against the police officers suspected to be involved in the plot.  

In Puttalam district in the Northwestern province, Wennappuwa local body chairman Susantha Perera, belonging to Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), issued a letter prohibiting Muslim traders from doing business at the Dankotuwa weekly fair, ostensibly because people objected to Muslim traders doing business at the site. However, police stepped in to cancel the move and filed a complaint against the PS chairman for his illegal order.  

Chief Prelate of Asigiri Chapter Warakagoda Sri Gnanarathana, representing one of Sri Lanka’s highest Buddhist authority, presented one of the worst manifestation of Islam-phobia. According to a BBC report, the Prelate addressing a gathering said “I also ask people to avoid those (Muslim) shops. Do not eat or drink from these shops. Because it is a common notion,” he said, adding “It can be clearly seen that they are attempting to destroy our people by giving poison.” In an obvious reference to Dr Shafi’s case, the monk said the doctor who ‘destroyed hundreds and thousands of children’ should be stoned. He said a group of women had said the doctor should be stoned to death. “I don’t say that. But, that is what needs to be done,” he added.

While political leaders including President Sirisena chose to ignore the prelate’s hate speech, Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera in a statement called upon “true Buddhists” to unite against the “talibanisation” of the religion.  Diplomats from the member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) called upon the President and urged him to ensure safety of the Muslim community in the face of hate speeches of some senior politicians and a section of the clergy. President Sirisena while assuring them of the safety of all the citizens, said that current utterances of some interested parties were due to the prevailing political situation in view of the forthcoming election.

Political posturing 

President Sirisena seems to have been overwhelmed by the continuing political impasse. Addressing a meeting of media heads, he insisted that the 19th amendment must be abolished before the next presidential elections as it had become “a curse” to the country. The President said that it had created political instability prevailing in the country. He added "I doubt whether the 19th amendment was drafted by a group of legal experts or a bunch of ignorant people." The President said the amendment had been drafted due to the request of some non-governmental organizations.

The President seems to have forgotten that he had persuaded some sections within the SLFP faction in the government who had reservations about the 19th Amendment, to vote for it in April 2015.  The 19^th Amendment was introduced to reduce the Executive President abusing his power and be more accountable to parliament. Though it is not perfect, its relevance was demonstrated during the October 201 constitutional crisis, when the President tried to remove the PM without a vote of confidence in parliament. His criticism of the 19^th Amendment only reveals his frustration in continuing to work with PM Wickremesinghe.

However, unmindful of these negative developments, forthcoming presidential election seems to be the preoccupation of many political leaders. Former President Rajapaksa seems to be undecided in choosing between Chamal and Gotabaya as the SLPP’s presidential candidate.  The SLPP has scheduled a meeting on August 11 to choose its candidate. President Sirisena’s dilemma in contesting the presidential election seems to be unresolved. The UNP is yet to finalise its candidate from three possible contenders. In the coming months, if the government is not vigilant, chances of political confrontation getting out of hand and turn into ethnic  confrontation are there. 

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis

Will Rahul take back his resignation?

July 03, 2019 | Courtesy: Rediff News

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/will-rahul-take-back-his-resignation/20190703.htm

Whether Rahul likes it or not, he will be judged by what he does to put the party back on its feet, says Colonel R Hariharan (retd).

Is Rahul Gandhi president of the Congress party or not?

He seems to continue to be the Congress chief though he does not seem to think so.

Rahul Gandhi's anomalous status as Congress president fits in with Saiva Siddhanta philosophy's comparison of the ideal state of our existence to worldly happenings to that of a tamarind fruit.

While the fruit continues to be inside the shell, it remains unaffected as it is not attached to it.

Rahul Gandhi became party president in 2017 after a great deal of reluctance and four-year experience as vice-president, a position established for him.

Apparently, his tenure as party vice-president did not endear him to ageing regional satraps because Rahul's sporadic tinkering with the Congress 'formula' of working excluded them.

But they had the last laugh because his successive failures reinforced their relevance to the party, much like the preference for an old shoe when a new shoe chafes the foot.

After the Lok Sabha election debacle, at the Congress Working Committee meeting on May 25, Rahul offered to step down from his post, taking moral responsibility for the party's abysmal performance in the Lok Sabha election.

It is important to note he did not resign. He had also lamented that senior leaders Kamal Nath and Ashok Gehlot had preferred to keep the interests of their sons over those of the party.

Of course, as it was an offer to resign and not a resignation, it was convenient for the CWC to reject the proposal.

However, Rahul has continued to be adamant on quitting the leadership of the party. He said he took the decision to ensure accountability for the party's Lok Sabha poll debacle.

'I have resigned after taking full responsibility and ensuring accountability for the party's defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. I cannot ask others to resign too. It is up to them if they want to take responsibility,' he said.

Though Rahul's threat to quit created a domino effect with several leaders tendering their resignations, the old guard must have the last laugh. They have seen it all every time when a Gandhi scion was involved in such a situation.

Now two regional satraps -- Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh back in power as chief minister -- stand as proof their time tested Congress ‘formula’ had worked better, at least at the state level, than Rahul’s new-fangled (a the gerontocracy in the Congress leadership view it) penchant for an AI-based approach to elections.

In spite of this, the two senior leaders have persisted with the demand to persuade Rahul to continue as Congress president. They would rather have a Gandhi scion as president, regardless of his desire, rather than see one among them getting on the Congress gaddi.

To the Congress 'family' -- the diminishing number of adulatory followers who follow the Shinto traditions of family worship -- any Gandhi was better than any one of their own leaders.

However, the Lok Sabha drubbing has shown the old guard's time tested 'formula' talk of secularism and equity for all has been all but submerged by predatory corruption and cronyism. Rahul's new formula based on data has also not worked.

The party must recognise the Congress collapse was only hastened by Narendra Damodardas Modi's offer of a new narrative the masses could relate to.

Rahul reminds one of 'the Reluctant Peer' Anthony Wedgewood Benn, member of the House of Lords. Averse to his hereditary title of Lord Stansgate, Tony Benn hurriedly filed his disclaimer to the hereditary title the moment the peerage bill received royal assent on July 31, 1963.

Apparently, Rahul is neither Tony Benn and nor has the Congress royalty given its assent for him to quit. So Rahul continues to be the Reluctant President of the Grand Old Party.

Immediately after the election results were announced, Rahul put up a brave face and went on a victory parade in Wayanad. He did not waste time to ponder over his defeat in Amethi, his pocket borough, by Smriti Irani. Had he done so, he would have done some honest soul searching to understand the nature of the Congress party's pathetic performance.

Rahul is likely to defer to the wishes of the delegation of Congress chief ministers converging in New Delhi to persuade him to continue, which should bring the 'reluctant president' episode to a close.

The sad truth is the Grand Old Party, shorn of its last vestiges of grandeur, looks fit to be admitted in a hospice.

Whether Rahul likes it or not, whether he has a working president or any other alternate arrangement or not, he will be judged by what he does to put the party back on its feet.

Running down Prime Minister Modi is definitely not the way to do it because the Congress has not only to offer a new narrative, but market it to a new audience.

Elections are no more what they were in grandma Indira's days. The party suffers on two counts: Self-inflicted injuries by well entrenched vested interests masquerading as leaders; and losing touch with the dynamics of change among voters.

As many Opposition leaders have acknowledged, the Congress failed because it could not sell the idea that the voter would get a better deal by voting the party to power.

So Rahul the leader, reluctant or otherwise, has to strategise marketing the repackaged Congress to the next gen, which decides losers and winners.

They may live in rural or urban areas, but are all mobile savvy to size up politicians and parties and by and large make up their own mind.

 

Of course, the power of money, muscle and caste do help win elections; but Modi's success has shown that they alone can't achieve it.

Though Rahul had tried to paint an unflattering picture of big business, he can benefit from their marketing wisdom.

For a start, the leadership can read up marketing messiah Philip Kotler's fourth iteration -- Marketing 4.0 -- on new marketing strategies. It is based on observation and analysis of the paradoxes in view of the digital technology boom.

While marketing political parties to the voter in the digital age, neither data analysis alone nor old formulas by itself would work.

Leaders will have to understand how online meets offline, why style must be complemented with substance, and why Machine to Machine is incomplete without Human to Human.

The key words are technology and substance as much as human to human.

Colonel R Hariharan (retd) served as executive director of the Madras Management Association. He has been a corporate trainer for more than a decade.