Col R Hariharan |October 31, 2020| South Asia Security Trends, November 2020| www.security-risk.com
Overview
The month
of October was an eventful one for Sri Lanka. The 20th Amendment to
the Constitution (20A) empowering the President was passed in parliament with
two-thirds majority. The Covid-19 pandemic made a dramatic comeback in a second
wave, to boost the virus-affected numbers which stood at 9,791 with 19 deaths
as on October 31, 2020. Evidently, the second wave had caught the
administration flat footed. In spite of these preoccupations, the worsening
relations between two giant Asian powers –India and China – who have close
relations with Sri Lanka, churning up the strategic environment in the Indian Ocean
Region (IOR) became a cause of concern. The visits of high power
dignitaries – first the Chinese and then the US – brought home the
reality of Cold War 2.0 threatening to jeopardize Sri Lanka’s
efforts to recover from economic woes. It showed Sri Lanka’s economic recovery
in times of Covid pandemic is very much linked to the increasingly difficult
task of managing its international relations.
20th
Amendment
During
the first half of the month, the passing of the 20A occupied Sri Lanka’s
political centre stage. The controversial 20th Amendment to the
Constitution (20A), aimed at restoring the powers of the executive president,
deprived by the previous government. In fact, it has replaced the ten-member
constitutional council with five-member parliamentary council, bringing the
independent commissions under the control of the President. This generated a
lot of heart burning between parties and behind the door manoeuvres before the
bill was fielded in parliament.
However,
in spite of international concerns, political speculations, opposition from
some of the Buddhist and Catholic clergy and internal rumblings among ruling
party leaders, the 20A had a smooth passage in parliament on October 22, 2020.
In the 225-memer House, 156 members voting in favour and 65 against, while four
abstained.
Though
the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) coalition opposed it and
called it as paving way for dictatorship, eight of its own members, including
the SJB assistant secretary Ms Diana Gamage, voted in favour of the
resolution. SJB partners, who voted in favour included some of the
leaders of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and All Ceylon Muslim Congress. The
whole voting exercise, underlined the Rajapaksas' uncanny ability to manoeuvre
their way to achieve their political goals.
Cold War
2.0 spills over
The
national focus on internal politics, however, did not diminish the increasing
global attention to Sri Lanka’s emergence as a strategic pivot in the
Indian Ocean Region (IOR) in the midst of Cold War 2.0 breweing between the US
and China. The four-power the US-led Quadrilateral strategic alliance, with
India, Japan and Australia in its ranks, firming up its strategies to
challenge China’s forays in the Indo-Pacific to ensure freedom of navigation.
So in the future, whether Sri Lanka likes it or not, it is likely to find
itself in the eye of Cold War 2.0's strategic storm.
The
two-day visit of the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Colombo, in the last
week of the month, has to be viewed in this context, regardless of the shrill
rhetoric surrounding it. Actually, his visit was preceded by a ‘high powered
Chinese delegation’ led by Yang Jiechi, member of the Chinese Communist party’s
Politburo and director of the CCP Central Committee’s Foreign Affairs
Commission, on a two-day visit. Yang, who leads the top foreign policy making
body, met with President Rajapaksa and PM Mahinda Rajapaksa. During the meeting
he stressed the two countries as strategic cooperation partners should
continue to maintain high-level exchanges and consolidate political mutual
trust. He added that China will continue to push forward cooperation under the
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and advance cooperation ranging from tottt to
tourism, agriculture and education.
Yang’s
visit came in the midst of a spat between China-US diplomats in Colombo,
after the US Ambassador to Colombo Alaina Teplitz in a media interview
criticised Chinese projects in Sri Lanka. She said, “a 2019 World Bank study
concluded that more than 60% of China funded BRI projects are allocated to
Chinese companies and stressed that tender processes are opaque.” In a strong
reaction, the Chinese Embassy called the Ambassador’s statement despicable
attempt to manipulate others’ in diplomatic relations, and advised the US quit
“the addiction of preaching others and applying double standards.”
The
US Secretary of State led the high power delegation to call upon President
Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Mike Pompeo and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa exchanged
their views on a number of areas of bilateral and regional importance. Pompeo
expressed the US desire to continue to work closely with Sri Lanka in achieving
a high level of economic development. He added that priority will be given to
promote US investments in the island. The US was also ready to give a helping
hand to the development of tourism under a carefully prepared action plan, as
it was a key sector that generated employment and income. In response,
President Rajapaksa said Sri Lanka wanted to achieve a high level of economic
growth by attracting more foreign investments, rather than obtaining loans. He
sought assistance in modernising agriculture
On Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, the President said it was based on neutrality.
Relations between Sri Lanka and other nations are determined by several
conditions, including historic and cultural relations and development
cooperation. The President stressed that he is not ready to compromise the
independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the nation in
maintaining foreign relations whatever the circumstances may be. He noted that
China assisted in the development of the country’s infrastructure since the end
of the separatist war, and reiterated that Sri Lanka was not caught in a debt trap
as a result.
The two sides agreed to further strengthen the defence cooperation already
established between the two countries in training and material assistance.
Pompeo responded positively when President Rajapaksa emphasised the need to
strengthen the coast guard services to combat drug trafficking. Pompeo said
that the US wishes to see the Indian Ocean remain a zone of peace. He expressed
satisfaction over the existing friendly ties between Sri Lanka and India.
President Rajapaksa stated that Sri Lanka also hopes to see peace in the Indian
Ocean. Both parties also agreed to work together on human rights issues in the
international fora.
However, it was the joint press conference Pompeo addressed along with Foreign
Minister Dinesh Gunawardena that captured media headlines. Pompeo lauding Sri
Lanka as a sovereign and powerful and strategic partner for the US on the world
stage, added it can be a beacon for a free and open Indo-Pacific, in contrast
“to what China seeks. We see from bad deals, violations of sovereignty and
lawlessness on land and sea that the Chinese Communist Party is a predator, and
the United States comes in a different way. We come as a friend and as a
partner,” In both engagements, Pompeo reiterated that the US seeks to strengthen
its partnership with democratic, peaceful, prosperous, and fully
sovereign Sri Lanka. He also touched upon counter terrorism assistance. It
was interesting to note his pointed reference to President Rajapaksa’s victor
speech last year, in which the President had stated that he was president of
all citizens; Pompeo said “We fully expect that Sri Lanka will fulfil its
pledges to take meaningful, concrete steps to promote accountability, justice,
and reconciliation.”
In
the emerging strategic scene in the IOR, Sri Lanka cannot escape the harsh
realities. This was aptly summed up in an op-ed in Ceylon Today: “Even the efforts of the Quad security
grouping promoted by the US to promote a free and independent
Asia-Pacific region are India, Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour, Japan, the
largest bilateral source of concessional funding to Sri Lanka and Australia,
its fifth largest source of tourism arrivals last year.
“Therefore, it’s in Colombo’s interest to consider the
multi-country dimensional aspect of Pompeo’s visit to the island, not least the
importance of the US as an economic partner, by being the single largest source
absorbing the island’s merchandise exports and work towards further expanding
economic cooperation between the two countries, for the betterment of the
people of Sri Lanka.”
[Col R
Hariharan, a retire MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the
head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.
E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com web: https://col.hariharan.info ]
Overview
The month
of October was eventful one for Sri Lanka. The 20th Amendment to the
Constitution (20A) empowering the President was passed in parliament with
two-third majority. The Covid-19 pandemic made a dramatic comeback in a second
wave, to boost the virus-affected numbers which stood at 9,791 with 19 deaths
as on October 31, 2020. Evidently, the second wave had caught the
administration flatfooted. In spite of these preoccupations, the worsening
relations between two giant Asian powers –India and China – who have close
relations with Sri Lanka, churning up the strategic environment in the Indian
Ocean Region (IOR) became a cause of concern.
The visits of high power dignitaries – first the Chinese and then the US
– brought home the reality of Cold War 2.0 threatening to jeopardize Sri
Lanka’s efforts to recover from economic woes. It showed Sri Lanka’s economic
recovery in times of Covid pandemic is very much linked to the increasingly
difficult task of managing its international relations.
20th Amendment
During
the first half of the month, the passing of the 20A occupied Sri Lanka’s
political centre stage. The controversial 20th Amendment to the
Constitution (20A), aimed at restoring the powers of the executive president,
deprived by the previous government. In fact, it has replaced the ten-member
constitutional council with five-member parliamentary council, bringing the
independent commissions under the control of the President. This generated a
lot of hear burning between parties and behind the door manoeuvres before the
bill was fielded in parliament.
However,
in spite of international concerns, political speculations, opposition from
some of the Buddhist and Catholic clergy and internal rumblings among ruling
party leaders, the 20A had a smooth passage in parliament on October 22, 2020.
In the 225-memer House, 156 members voting in favour and 65 against, while four
abstained.
Though, the
main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) coalition stoutly opposed it and
said it paved the way for dictatorship, eight of its own members including the
assistant secretary Ms Diana Gamage, voted in favour of the resolution.
Explaining the vote, Ms Gamage said she loved the country more than her party. SJB
partners, who voted in favour included some of the leaders of the Sri Lanka
Muslim Congress and All Ceylon Muslim Congress. The whole voting exercise,
underlined the Rajapaksas uncanny ability to manoeuvre their way to achieve
their goal in national politics.
Cold War 2.0 spills over
The national
focus on internal politics, however, did not diminish the increasing global
attention to Sri Lanka’s emergence as a strategic pivot as it overlooks the sea
lanes of Indian Ocean. Inevitably, Sri Lanka has become the focus of China’s
efforts to increase its influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as part of
its global power projection. The US already in the midst of a brewing Cold War
2.0 with China, is marshalling its support in the region. The four-power the US-led
Quadrilateral strategic alliance, with India, Japan and Australia in its ranks,
is increasingly tying up its strategies to challenge China’s forays in the
Indo-Pacific to ensure freedom of navigation.
The two-day visit of the US Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo to Colombo, in the last week of the month, has to be viewed in this
context, regardless of the shrill rhetoric surrounding it. Actually, his visit
was preceded by a ‘high powered Chinese delegation’ led by Yang Jiechi, member
of the Chinese Communist party’s Politburo and director of the CCP Central
Committee’s Foreign Affairs Commission, on a two-day visit. Yang, who leads the
top foreign policy making body, met with President Rajapaksa and PM Mahinda
Rajapaksa. During the meeting he stressed the two countries as strategic
cooperation partners, should continue to maintain high-level exchanges and
consolidate political mutual trust. He added that China will continue to push
forward cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and advance cooperation
ranging from tottt to tourism, agriculture and education.
Yang’s
visit came in the midst of a spat between China-US, which had muddied the
waters, after the US Ambassador to Colombo Alaina Teplitz in a media interview
criticised Chinese projects in Sri Lanka. She said, “a 2019 World Bank study
concluded that more than 60% of China funded BRI projects are allocated to
Chinese companies and stressed that tender processes are opaque.” In a strong
reaction, the Chinese Embassy called the Ambassador’s statement despicable
attempt to manipulate others’ in diplomatic relations, and advised he US quit “the
addiction of preaching others and applying double standards.”
The US Secretary of State led the high power
delegation to call upon President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Mike Pompeo and President
Gotabaya Rajapaksa exchanged their views on a number of areas of bilateral and
regional importance. Pompeo expressed the US desired to continue to work
closely with Sri Lanka in achieving a high level of economic development. He added
that priority will be given to promote US investments in the island. The US was
also ready to give a helping hand to the development of tourism under a
carefully prepared action plan, as it was key sector that generated employment
and income.
In response, President Rajapaksa said what Sri Lanka wanted to achieve a high
level of economic growth by attracting more foreign investments, rather than
obtaining loans. He sought assistance for modernising agriculture sector and
scientific research to reach this goal.
On Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, the President said it was based on neutrality.
Relations between Sri Lanka and other nations are determined by several
conditions including historic and cultural relations and development
cooperation. The President stressed that he is not ready to compromise the
independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the nation in
maintaining foreign relations whatever the circumstances may be. He noted that
China assisted in the development of the country’s infrastructure since the end
of the separatist war, and reiterated that Sri Lanka was not caught in a debt
trap as a result.
The two sides agreed to further strengthen the defence cooperation already
established between the two countries in training and material assistance.
Pompeo responded positively when President Rajapaksa emphasised the need to
strengthen the coast guard services to combat drug trafficking. Pompeo said
that the US wishes to see the Indian Ocean remain a zone of peace. He expressed
satisfaction over the existing friendly ties between Sri Lanka and India.
President Rajapaksa stated that Sri Lanka also hopes to see peace in the Indian
Ocean. Both parties also agreed to work together on human rights issues in the
international fora.
But it was the joint press conference Pompeo addressed along with Foreign
Minister Dinesh Gunawardena that captured international media headlines. Pompeo
lauding Sri Lanka as a sovereign and
powerful and strategic partner for the US on the world stage, added it can be a
beacon for a free and open Indo-Pacific, in contrast “to what China seeks. We
see from bad deals, violations of sovereignty and lawlessness on land and sea
that the Chinese Communist Party is a predator, and the United States comes in
a different way. We come as a friend and as a partner,” In both
engagements, Pompeo reiterated that the US seeks to strengthen its partnership
with democratic, peaceful, prosperous, and fully sovereign Sri Lanka. He
also touched upon counter terrorism assistance. It was interesting to note his
pointed reference to President Rajapaksa’s victor speech last year, in which
the President had stated that he was president of all citizens; Pompeo said “We
fully expect that Sri Lanka will fulfil its pledges to take meaningful,
concrete steps to promote accountability, justice, and reconciliation.”
In
the emerging strategic scene in the IOR, Sri Lanka cannot escape the harsh
realities. This was aptly summed up in an editorial in Ceylon Today: “Even the efforts of the Quad security grouping promoted by the US to promote a free and
independent Asia-Pacific region are India, Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour,
Japan, the largest bilateral source of concessional funding to Sri Lanka and
Australia, its fifth largest source of tourism arrivals last year.
“Therefore, it’s in Colombo’s interest to consider
the multi-country dimensional aspect of Pompeo’s visit to the island, not least
the importance of the US as an economic partner, by being the single largest
source absorbing the island’s merchandise exports and work towards further
expanding economic cooperation between the two countries, for the betterment of
the people of Sri Lanka.”
[Col
R Hariharan, a retire MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the
head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.
E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com
web: https://col.hariharan.info ]
