Col R Hariharan
The Rajapaksas – President Gotabaya
and PM Mahinda – are fighting a losing battle to retain their hold on power,
after public protests demanding their removal gathered momentum. During the
first half of the month Sri Lanka went bankrupt, when the government announced
that it would temporarily default on $35.5 bn in foreign debt as the war in
Ukraine aggravated the country’s economic woes. Officially, Sri Lanka has
requested emergency financial help from the IMF as bailout talks got underway
in Washington. Finance Minister Ali Sabry is leading the negotiations
with the country’s creditors on restructuring loans, which is required for an
IMF package.
As the Sri Lankan media headlined it
was confusion, confounded, as both the President and PM played political
hopscotch to form an “all-party government” (APG) as though it is the panacea
for the national crisis. The President convened a meeting of leaders of all
parties to discuss the issue. But it seems to have made no breakthrough.
Former President and SLFP leader Maithripala Sirisena speaking to the
press after the meeting, said “President Rjapaksa agreed to appoint an interim
government and also a cabinet of ministers without the current PM.” Is ‘interim
government’ different from ‘APG’? Or are they the same? Who will lead it as PM,
if Mahinda is out?
The political talkathon on the
subject even within the ruling SLPP coalition partners and 42-breakaway
“independent” MPs from the coalition, has yielded no firm results. More time
seems to have been generated on pulling the rug under the feet of the elder
Rajapaksa to remove him as PM, while some others wanted both of them out.
With political jabberwocky dominating
the news, few things seem certain. For the time being, PM Rajapaksa seems to be
reconciled to quit, if the President so demands. At least for the time being,
Mahinda seems to have blinked in the eye-ball to eye-ball stare‘athon’. He has
also lost the support of Mahanayaka Theras, Buddhist prelates. But the moot
point is do these political manoeuvres help in overcoming the national crisis?
The short answer is zilch.
Even if the APG is formed with some
under the table manoeuvres so common in Sri Lanka politics, does President Gotabaya
have a plan ready for the government to implement? After all, one of the first
things the President did on his election was to arm himself with full executive
powers through the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, breaking the
fetters imposed by the 19th Amendment. He had his elder brother as
PM and the Rajapaksas controlled the key ministries. In spite of this, the
President compounded his errors of judgement, by implementing his grandiose
election promises and now the country is paying for it.
The Gotabaya government’s clumsy
handling of the burgeoning public protests during the last three weeks,
conflated them into a national anti-government mass movement, with all sections
of society – students, consumers, tradesmen, trade unions, medical and media
men, lawyers and even clergy – joining in. If we go by this example, it is
difficult to be confident about the chances of success of any national recovery
plan, the President may have up his sleeve.
In any case, the APG may never come through,
as two no confidence motions (NCM) – one against the President and the other
against the government are to be submitted by the opposition in the first week
of May. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) will be moving the NCM against the
President while the main opposition party SJB is the sponsor of the NCM against
the government. Even after two NCMs are passed in parliament, what do
opposition parties propose to do? As of now, they do not seem to have come
together to evolve a consensus, let alone a plan.
The total loss of public support to
the Rajapaksas was demonstrated by hundreds of bhikkus who gathered in Colombo.
Once staunch supporters of Gotabaya, they called upon the President and the
government to resolve the current economic crisis by implementing the
Mahanayaka Theras proposal. If the proposal was not implemented the
Mahanayake would issue a Sangha Convention edict calling on monks to shun
politicians. They called upon PM Rajapaksa to resign forthwith to make way for
an interim government of all parties.
Ven. Omalpe Sobitha Thera asked
President Gotabaya to beg for forgiveness from the people for all the bad
decisions he made, causing much harm. He also criticised PM Rajapaksa for
showing open disdain for the Mahanayaka Theras request to step down and make
way for the appointment of a new PM. On the opposition parties, he said they
were only interested in using the crisis to come to power instead of thinking
how they can help “douse the flames” and bring some relief to the people.
In the rat race of politics, the
common man (like Indian Penal Code, man includes woman) seems to have been left
on the fringe of national discourse by politicians. But that may not reflect
the ground situation. The massive protest movement is gathering more strength
as politicians dither, like a distant thunder before the squall. The continuing
Aragalaya (struggle in Sinhalese) at GotaGoGama at the Galle Face promenade in
Colombo has become the focal point of the anti-Rajapaksa struggle. It
showed that regardless of caste, creed, religion and language people have lost
faith in the political class, who are trying to hitch a ride on the public
protests. Can they succeed? As Sanja Jayatilleka wrote in Colombo Telegraph,
“It’s The People vs the Political Class, in the Aragalaya. The People are
winning because they are clearer, more intelligent and are way ahead of the
politicians. The parliamentarians who can’t seem to get what the people have
crystal clear, can play silly buggers only the people stop them.” High time the
politicians realised this is testing time for democracy and if they fail the
people, democracy will be in peril. [Written on April 30, 2022]
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South
Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace
Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre
for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
