Col R Hariharan
Sri Lanka Perspectives October 2022 | South Asia Security Trends, November 2022 www.security-risk.com
Overview
During the month, the government’s preliminary talks with
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on structuring its economic recovery
continued. However, debt restructuring continues to be delayed with China due
to its preoccupation with the 20th NPC meetings of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP). Even negotiations with India and Japan are moving at a
slow pace. Perhaps, this is due to their lingering doubts about the
Wickremesinghe government’s ability to see through the structural reforms. In
this context, President Wickremesinghe must be heartened by the show of
solidarity for his actions by the US and some of the EU members, despite the
use of high-handed methods to suppress public protests.
Internally, the passing of the 22nd Constitutional
Amendment (originally introduced as 21A) to improve executive president’s
accountability, the use of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to curb
Aragalaya activism and the launching of the Rise Together (Ekwa Nagitimu)
campaign at the grass roots to recoup the image of the Rajapaksas were key
highlights of happenings in October 2022.
The events leading up to these important internal
developments showed existing differences, not only within the ruling Sri Lanka
Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and its cohorts, but also within the opposition
parties as well.
Of course, during the month political leaders continued
to ride their time-tested political hobby horses – new constitution, electoral
reforms, call for general election and the not be missed late entrant
“investigation and follow up into the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks.”
The government used the familiar gambit of appointing
parliamentary select committees and presidential commissions to tackle the
opposition moves. So, everybody continued to be busy doing something.
Strategizing economic recovery
However, President Wickremesinghe appears to be
leveraging lack of unity within political parties to adopt transactional
strategies to push through actions to achieve targets set in the 2022 interim
budget for increase in government revenue and debt reduction. The actions taken
so far, include reducing government spending, tackling public corruption,
energy reforms to open retail distribution of fuel to private firms, privatise
wasteful state-owned enterprises and promote foreign investment avenues.
Normally, these issues are considered politically
explosive. Despite paying lip service, political parties in power have seldom
considered seriously implementing such measures. Given this dismal record of
political parties, Wickremesinghe government’s actions do not seem to have
animated the media. The Aragalaya movement has by and large eroded public
credibility in political parties
In spite of the lack of credibility in the government,
some progress seems to have been made in improving the business climate as
indicated by the LMD-NielsenIQ Business Confidence Index (BCI) for October.
Reporting on the state of business, Sri Lanka’s online business magazine LMD
said the BCI provided “a semblance of relief; it has climbed a heartening 13
basis points to 89” during October from September’s 76. However, it quoted
NielsenIQ Director-Consumer Insights Theirca Miyanadeniya’s assertion “concern
over the socio-political status of the country is waning as business and people
are in a race to survive against a backdrop of extreme hardships.”
With the major economies expecting a period of global
recession in the coming months, it is essential that Wickremasinghe government
survives to see the country through the period of economic privation in the
coming months.
Under such circumstances, the passing of the 22nd Amendment
to the constitution 174 votes in favour and one against, may be considered as
an indication of grudging acceptance of President Wickremesinghe’s leadership
by over two-thirds members of parliament.
The amendment was passed despite some pro-Basil Rajapaksa
members of the ruling SLPP objecting to the clause on not allowing dual
citizens to become members of parliament. This indicated two things: the
decline of Basil Rajapaksa’s influence within SLPP and the Rajapaksas continued
support to President Wickremesinghe.
The 22A is a compromise between the Yahapalana
government’s 19A to curb the sweeping powers of executive presidency and Gotabaya’s
20A to restore the powers of the executive presidency.
The bill was much debated by parliament members and the
public and its present form represents a compromise solution reflecting some of
the key elements from both the earlier amendments on the subject. For instance,
it has retained the 20A clause on the powers of the president to dissolve
parliament after two and half years, as against four and a half years
stipulated in the19A. On the other hand, 22A has reintroduced 19A’s clause
prohibiting dual citizens from contesting elections which was allowed by the
20A.
The 22A reduces some of the powers of the president
enjoyed earlier under 20A, regarding appointments to high officers of the state
including the Chief Justice, judges of supreme court and appeals court,
chairmen of the election commission, human rights commission and police
commission and the IGP. The constitutional council created now has the power to
make these appointments. The president and prime minister enjoy some influence
in picking members of the constitutional council, which will have three members
from civil society.
Conclusion
The writing on the wall is clear: Sri Lanka must achieve
targets presented in the 2022 interim budget for increase in government revenue
and debt reduction to overcome the worst ever financial crisis it is facing
now. Otherwise, Sri Lanka’s debt will be unsustainable; international financial
bodies like IMF and World Bank do not assist the economic recovery of such
countries.
Obviously, lack of understanding among the political
parties in tackling long pending critical issues, has stood in the way of
evolving a coherent national political and economic narrative to restore Sri
Lanka’s credibility both at home and abroad. It will not be pragmatic to expect
the political parties to give up their pettifogging and bury their hatchets to
see through the crises. They are accustomed to using the economic crunch and
hardship faced by the people to improve their poll prospects.
As a seasoned politician, President Wickremesinghe is
using his Machiavellian skills to use factionalism existing within almost all
the parties, to push through legislation to restore the economy. So far,
political parties by and large are grudgingly accepting his rule for want of a
better alternative. How long he survives this perilous journey will determine
the future course of events in Sri Lanka. One advantage he only seems to enjoy
is the moral, political and even economic support of most of the major
Indo-Pacific powers including India and China. But much would depend upon how
President Xi Jinping will handle China’s economic downturn, that could have its
fall out on Sri Lanka.
Tailpiece: Contact
with BJP?
A columnist writing in the Colombo weekly Sunday Times said a group of former LTTE cadres identifying themselves after rehabilitation as the ‘Democratic Cadres Party’ were in New Delhi in India recently. They took part in “an event organised by a group that maintains close ties” with India’s ruling BJP. They are said to have had discussions with various influential political actors and policymakers in New Delhi. Their requests to Indian authorities included lifting of the ban on LTTE proscribed in India since 1991 and full implementation of 13th Amendment. The article said their allegations that Hindu shrines were being acquired by the Archaeological Dept and WildLife Dept under questionable circumstances seemed to have struck a chord with the audiences, “given the BJP’s aggressive campaigns based on Hindutva ideologies.”
[Written on October 31, 2022]
[Col
R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the
head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He
is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
