Col R
Hariharan
Sri
Lanka Perspectives November 2022 | South Asia Security Trends,
December 2022 www.security-risk.com
OVERVIEW
President Ranil
Wickremesinghe in his capacity as finance minister presented the Budget 2023 in
the parliament on November 14. His budget address presenting a roadmap for
economic recovery was aptly titled ‘Towards a new beginning’. It showed the
government’s ambitious target of increasing government revenue, record economic
growth rate of 7-8% and increase FDIs to more than $ 3 billion. The splintered
voting by major political parties on the Budget in parliament showed that they
are yet to come to terms with the political scene after the Aragalaya protests
shook up the nation. We can expect new alliances across political parties to
emerge before the provincial council (PC) elections are announced in early
2023.
The President’s
invitation to all Tamil MPs for a discussion on issues facing the Tamil people
and development plans for the North and East indicates revival of interest in
the vexed question of ethnic reconciliation. It has received positive response
from the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). However, the moot question is how much
can the President who has no political mandate make any real progress on this
three-decade long issue?
In a special
address on November 24, President Wickremesinghe laid down the redlines for
protests and public conduct of protestors including students and clergy. Based
on the Aragalaya experience, the government is planning to bring a few measures
to tighten its control of such situations in the future.
On the external
front, China was in damage control mode to recoup its goodwill damaged in the
earlier months due to its lack of sensitivity in handling Sri Lanka. It came
with the arrival of a tanker containing the gift of 9000 tonnes of kerosene
from China.
CONCEPT OF BUDGET 2023
President Wickremesinghe’s Budget 2023 presented in parliament
aims to raise per capita income by creating means of livelihood for
young people matching the lifestyles they aspire. At the same time, it will
ensure welfare measures of vulnerable sections of society are implemented
effectively. He hopes to achieve goals of the Budget through the ‘social market
economy or social security open economy’ (though this construct may appear
contradictory).
The ‘New Economy’ will have three aspects: export oriented
competitive economy, an environmentally friendly green and blue economy and a
digital economy. To create the New Economy, new sources of revenue and new
areas of economy must be found. For this purpose, extensive economic reforms
restructuring and reorganisation will be carried out. This will be followed by
focus on modernisation of the delivery system in all aspects of governance.
With suitable legislations and legal amendments in place, he
expects to achieve high growth of 7 to 8 percent; increase in international
trade as a percentage of GDP by more than 100 percent; annual growth of $3
billion from new exports from 2023 to 2032; FDI of $3 billion in the next 10
years. He also hopes to create an internationally competitive workforce with
high skills in the next ten years. In his address, the President went on how he
proposes to achieve the goals with details of measures and proposals to flesh
out the concept.
President Wickremesinghe cannot be faulted for dreaming big or
the confidence with which he presented the concept. As the President
emphasised, unless a common social agreement is established between all
sections of society and all limbs of government, these ambitious goals cannot
be achieved. The million-dollar question is, will the nation as a whole rise up
to the occasion to heed the call of a President, who does not enjoy peoples
mandate?
WARDING
OFF ANOTHER ‘ARAGALAYA’
The Aragalaya
protest movement of the masses was against the misrule by the Rajapaksas that
peaked in May 2022. It was a spontaneous movement spearheaded by students,
professionals, trade unions and ordinary people egged on by political parties,
who leveraged the crowds. Aragalaya achieved its aim of packing off the
Rajapaksa clan into exile. it lost its momentum when the immediate goal of
dethroning the Rajapaksas was achieved. However, there are sections of leftist
student leaders, trade unions and Marxist ultras of the Janata Vimukthi
Peramuna (JVP) and its clone the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP), who wanted
systemic changes in the government as part of the Aragalaya agenda. They have
been demanding the dissolution of the parliament. Since then the JVP and FSP
have been talking of restarting the protest movement.
Speaking in
parliament, President Wickremesinghe has made it clear that he will not
dissolve the parliament amidst an economic crisis. “Today people are fed up
with the political parties and politics” he added that without delivering a
system change, politicians will not be able to win the confidence of the
people.
Addressing the
parliament on November 24, he warned that he will never allow violence and
anarchy to prevail under the guise of human rights. If any party indulges in
such an attempt the security forces will be used to suppress it completely.
Dwelling on the role of the army he said, “when it comes to overthrowing
governments, the army cannot stand aside…According to Article 9 of the
Constitution, the army has the power to stop them. Such acts of violence cannot
be tolerated. We should stop them. We should stop creating chaos by employing
clerics.”
Pointing out that some members of the clergy
were protesting and causing a disturbance, he added “The Sangha has religious
activities to attend. They should engage in those activities. Touching upon the
issue of human rights, he said “anarchy and violence cannot be allowed to
encroach on human rights…Those who cause violence in the name of human rights
cannot be protected,” he warned.
The President said Article 14 of the
Constitution outlines our fundamental rights. They can be implemented
especially to ensure state security within the limits prescribed by law for
public safety, including clauses on the protection of the constitution, as per
articles 15/1 and 15/2.
The President has also taken action to amend
the university acts to ensure students do not continue beyond the specified
period of study. Similarly, he has also approved a bill to register a discourse
to give powers to the Maha Sangha to disrobe errant monks.
As expected, the President’s speech has been
vehemently criticised by the JVP and sections of civil society. The Socialist
Youth Union, the student arm of the JVP, has decided to “warm up the cold
months and start the hot struggle in the streets” in the cities and districts.
The SYU has said it believed in parliament, the democratic struggle and
people's power. It demanded “an opportunity should be given to a new mandate
immediately…we are launching the struggle to end 74 years of rule and establish
a peoples rule.”
Tailpiece: Legalising cannabis cultivation. President Wickreme-singhe’s budget has proposed legalising
cannabis cultivation, ostensibly “to boost export of farm produce and forex reserves”.
Of course, Western tourists accustomed to smoking a toke as a form of
recreation would welcome it. But boost exports? Where? To India? No way. To the
US where growing cannabis is a huge business in many states? It is sure to
boost drug addiction among the island youth, already exposed to smuggled
cannabis and heroin. [Written on November 30, 2022]
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI
specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of
the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
