Different strokes for Different Folks

Col R Hariharan |Magazine| Special| India Legal | December 16,2023

https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/maldives-mohamed-muizzu-priorities-india-troops/

 

Under its new president, Mohamed Muizzu, Maldives’ foreign policy priorities have changed. His various travels ever since he was elected is evidence of that. On December 6, he ensured Maldives skip the 6th Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) meeting of National Security Advisers (NSA) of India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius held in Port Louis. This was in direct contrast to last year when Maldives—a founder-member of the India-Sri Lanka-Maldives trilateral framework for maritime security—had hosted the 5th edition of the meeting at which it was agreed to expand CSC by including Mauritius. Bangladesh and Seychelles attended the meeting as observers.

The CSC was specifically conceived to protect the maritime interests of the member countries, particularly their Exclusive Economic Zone in the southern Arabian Sea. Cooperation under the CSC includes the area’s maritime safety and security, countering terrorism, combating trafficking and organised crime, cyber security and protection of critical infrastructure and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Ships and aircraft of the Indian Navy, Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) and Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) jointly train and operate to fulfill the CSC mandate.

Maldives has been the biggest beneficiary of the CSC security framework as it has helped MNDF in training, planning and conduct of its security operations. President Muizzu is probably astute enough to understand that Maldives cannot afford to give up its participation in the CSC. So we can expect Muizzu to evolve a face-saving formula during “discussions” with India on the subject.

President Muizzu probably wanted to play down the importance of the India-centric CSC as it suits his current political idiom of distancing Maldives’ association with India. Ever since Muizzu came to power, he has repeatedly said that he wants to distance the country from the cheek-by-jowl relationship with India crafted by his predecessor President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. Of course, this was not unexpected as Muizzu’s electioneering theme was “getting the foreign troops out”, a euphemism for the presence of Indian troops in Maldives.

Muizzu preferred to travel to Turkey, an extra regional power, instead of India—the preferred choice of earlier presidents. This was perhaps to show he was not under Indian influence. Though he called upon Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, he met Prime Minister Narendra  Modi on the sidelines of COP-28 to request him to withdraw Indian “troops” from Maldives. It was a repeat of the formal request he made to Union Minister Kiren Rijiju when the latter called on the president a day after the swearing in. The president hoped that India would “honour the democratic will of the people”. He also brought up “the issue of Indian military personnel present in the Maldives for operating aircraft for medical evacuation and counter drug trafficking purposes”.

The Indian “troops” the president referred to are 77 IAF maintenance and flight crew stationed in Maldives to operate Dornier surveillance aircraft and two Dhruv casualty evacuation helicopters, gifted by India. They were operating under the guidance of the MNDF. The fact that the Indian crew helped evacuate over 500 patients since the induction of aircraft is a matter of detail that would not have escaped the notice of the astute president.

In a bid to further reinforce his “hands off” message to India, the president sent Vice President Hussain Mohamed Latheef to attend the China-sponsored 2nd meeting of the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation (CIORF) being held at Kunming in Yunnan province on December 7 and 8. This contrasts with President Solih who chose to skip the first meeting of the CIORF organized as part of 6th China South Asia Expo at Kunming in November 2022.

The CIORF is organised by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) to expand the country’s influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) to counter, not only the CSC, but also PM Modi’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative to promote maritime cooperation and development in IOR. Probably, the Indian Navy’s biennial Indian Ocean Naval Symposium meetings meant to help improve naval cooperation in IOR was also factored in China’s IOR narrative.

Luo Zhaohui, head of CIDCA and former ambassador to India, while speaking at the meeting, said that pushing forward Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) was one of the three reasons for organising the conclave. Promotion of BRI in the IOR has become urgent for China as all the three big debtors of BRI—Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives—are located there.

Vice President Latheef, addressing the COIRF meeting, said China has been crucial to Maldives development and highlighted the two countries “solid shared commitment to a people-centric strategy” to promote social development, peace and prosperity. He said President Muizzu and his administration are dedicated to fortifying long-standing relations between China and Maldives. He expressed eagerness to explore novel avenues of collaboration and cooperation with China, fostering a dynamic partnership bringing tangible benefits to both nations.

Though Latheef made no reference to BRI in his speech, China is likely to ginger up its BRI projects in Maldives as it is located close to India, astride the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean. When President Xi visited Maldives in 2014, then President Abdulla Yameen (a political ally of Muizzu till recently) formally joined the BRI. During Yameen’s tenure till 2018, China executed a number of infrastructure and investment projects. The Male-Hulhumale bridge, costing $210 million, was constructed by China Harbour Engineering Company. Beijing Urban Cons­truction Group completed the Male International Airport expansion project at Hulhumale in 2018. Yameen also signed a free trade pact with China. This has been a cause of concern to the Maldives trading community and Muizzu can be expected to take the FTA issue with the Chinese in the future.

Maldives is the smallest country in Asia with less than half a million-population living in 26 atolls spread over 90,000 sqkm with a land mass of 298 sqkm only. Its land mass is barely a foot above the sea level, making it highly vulnerable to nature’s fury and climate change. This makes its survival as a nation dependent not only on the vagaries of nature, but also upon international goodwill, particularly its nearest neighbour, India. Ever since Maldives gained independence on July 26, 1965, India has emerged as its biggest partner in trade and tourism industry. Everyday needs of Maldivians, whether it is rice, potato, onion or cereals or construction material (including river sand, a rarity in Maldives) is sourced from India. Indian teachers, doctors and healthcare workers are serving the people in every atoll.

Last, but not least, India has also been the traditional guarantor of Maldives security. India has responded in real time on three occasions when Maldives faced crisis situations. Indian para-commando forces carried out Operation Cactus in 1988 to crush an attempted coup by mercenaries to dethrone the government. In 2004, India responded generously within hours when the tsunami struck and devastated the country. Similarly, when Male was hit by fresh water shortage in 2012, Indian naval ships reached Maldives within hours to provide relief to thirsty citizens. In all the three occasions, India withdrew its forces from Maldives when its tasks were completed.

Even former President Yameen, despite his pro-China stance, had probably understood this unique feature of India’s “hands off” Maldives policy. Yameen signed the Indo-Maldivian Action Plan for Defence during a visit to New Delhi. Under the agreement, India was to install 26 radars to link up all the atolls with the Indian coastal command. Indian Navy and MNDF carry out joint surveillance and patrolling as well as joint exercises. India has funded the Uthuru Thila Falhu island site for a new harbour for the Maldivian Coast Guard which came under Muizzu’s rhetoric of foreign interference. India is also involved in a number of major infrastructure projects like the Greater Male Connectivity project, cargo vessel services and capacity building and training of MNDF and Maldivian civil servants and the Gulhifalhu Port Project.

Lastly, President Muizzu has internal political compulsions peculiar to the country, a late entrant to multi-party rule. Its democratic constitution was ratified only in August 2008. Political leaders are mostly related to each other and cronyism is the rule rather than exception in politics. 

Muizzu, the politician, is cutting loose from his mentor and now disgraced former president Yameen, probably to carve out his own constituency in the corruption-ridden, loyalty-less and inbred party politics with endemic corruption. These find their echo in political polemics in Maldives politics. In this environment, China has been carefully cultivating sections of the Maldivian polity, eating into India’s traditional benevolent-big brother role. As a result, Maldives politics has become the scene of China’s muscle flexing, which uses local leaders as proxies to whip up anti-Indian rhetoric, particularly during elections. This suits fractious politicians who thrive in unsettled party politics of Maldives. President Muizzu’s actions and utterances are to be understood against this political backdrop.

There are external factors too. Muizzu will also have to deal with the US with which Maldives had signed the “Framework for US Dept of Defense-Maldives Ministry of Defense and Security Relationship” in September 2020. Under this, the US helps Maldives to strengthen democratic institutions, civil society, fiscal transparency, maritime security, counter terrorism and law enforcement. The US has also provided $36 million since September 2018 in bilateral foreign assistance for maritime security.

These are strategically awkward times in the Indian Ocean region. The never-ending Ukraine-Russia war has dislocated global supply chains. The more recent Israel operation in Gaza against Hamas terrorists is becoming a genocidal war. It threatens to damage US influence in the Middle East. Amid all this, China is flexing its military muscle to aggressively assert its claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan. These developments are impacting not only Europe and the Middle East, but also the Indo-Pacific theatre, including the Indian Ocean region. This could lead to the creation of new power blocs and alignments. Big powers jockeying for power in the Maldives neighbourhood is likely to make it difficult for President Muizzu to execute his agenda.

To sum up, President Muizzu seems to be trying to evolve his own narrative in the island nation’s internal and external problems. These include cutting down the overwhelming influence of the giant neighbour India, while wooing China. During his visits to Turkey and the UAE, he tried to cultivate Islamic countries and motivate expatriate Maldivians to promote their culture specific linguistic nationalism and Islamic identity.  

So, President Muizzu is adopting different strokes for different folks. But his success is directly related to not merely how he manages India, but how India responds to his moves. Indian foreign policy has become dynamic and we can expect it to show a lot of patience and understanding in its dealings with the Maldivian president.

Winston Lord, Henry Kissinger’s aide, in his eulogy of him in The Times said: “Diplomacy involves agonising choices and trade-offs, aligning values and national interests. One cannot allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good.” 

It is a useful quote for President Muizzu when he confronts his problems not only externally, but internally as well. In the island nation, external and internal issues are two sides of the same coin. 

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

Box

Hydrographic pact not renewed

In the latest development in Indo-Maldives ties, Maldives has announced that it will not renew a pact with India on conducting hydrographic surveys of its waters. The agreement was valid until June 7, 2024. The MoU between the two countries on cooperation in the field of hydrography was for five years ago and signed on June 18, 2019, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Male.

According to the pact, if one of the signatories wants to terminate it, it has to inform the other country at least six months before the term ends, otherwise, it will automatically renew for five years more. The Maldivian government, under the new president, Mohammed Muizzu, wants to do away with pacts signed by the earlier administration that they believe will endanger their independence and sovereignty. Is this also an indirect signal by Maldives to China about its anti-India stance?

கம்யூனிஸ்ட் சீனாவை புரிந்து கொள்வது எப்படி?

கர்னல் ஆர் ஹரிஹரன் | டிசம்பர் 9, 2023

சீனா இந்தியாவைப் போல் பழம்பெரும் கலாசாரம் வாய்ந்த நாடு. சீன மொழியை கற்பதுஎளிதல்ல. இந்தியா  மேற்கத்திய காலினி ஆதிக்கத்தின் கீழ் 200 ஆண்டுகள் இருந்ததால் உலகுக்கு இந்தியாவை ஒரளவு புரிந்து கொள்ள முடிந்தது. ஆனால் சீனாவை புரிந்து கொள்வதுஅவ்வளவு எளிதல்ல. ஹங்கேரிய நாட்டு பாதிரியான லாஸ்லோ லடானி செஞ்சீனாவை நாம் புரிந்து கொள்ள செய்த சேவை மகத்கதானது. அவர் கொமிண்டாங் அரசு சீனாவை ஆண்ட போது ஒன்பது ஆண்டுகள் சீனாவில் கல்வி கற்றார். அவர் 1949-ல், கம்யூனிஸ்ட் சீன அரசால் சீன நாட்டில் இருந்து வெளியேற்றப்பட்டார். அதன் பின்னர், 1982 ஆம் ஆண்டு வரை அவர் பிரிட்டிஷ் கட்டுப்பாட்டில் இருந்த ஹாங்காங் காலனியில் "சீனச் செய்தி ஆய்வு மையம்" என்ற அமைப்பை ஏற்படுத்தி நடத்தினார். அந்த கால  கட்டத்தில், கம்யூனிஸ்ட்  சீனாவில் என்ன நடக்கிறது என்பதை எளிதில் அறிய முடியாது. சீன மொழியில் பிரசுரமாகும் சீனாவின் செய்திகளை அலசி, பகுப்பாய்வு செய்து லடோனி அவற்றை ஆங்கிலத்தில் பிரசுரித்தார். சீன செய்தித்தாள்கள், ஆவணங்கள் மற்றும் வானொலி ஒளிபரப்புகளை நம்பி, மாவோவின் சாதனைகளைப் பற்றிய பிரச்சாரத்தை மற்றவர்கள் விழுங்கும்போது, செஞ்சீனாவில் நடந்த நிகழ்வுகளை துல்லியமாக ஆய்ந்து விளக்கம் அளித்தார். 

லடானி தனது கடைசி பதிப்பில், சமகால சீன அரசியலை சூழ்ந்துள்ள  புகை மண்டலத்தின் ஊடே உண்மையை தெரிந்து கொள்ள முயற்சிப்பவர்களுக்கு வழிகாட்டும் 'பத்து கட்டளைகள்' பட்டியலை அச்சிட்டார்:

1. சுதந்திர சமுதாயத்தில் வாழும் எவருக்கும் ஒரு ராணுவ படைப்பிரிவு போன்ற சீன கம்யூனிஸ்ட்  சமூகத்தின் வாழ்க்கையைப் பற்றிய முழுமையான புரிதல் இல்லை என்பதை நினைவில் கொள்ளுங்கள்.

2. சீன கண்ணாடிகள் மூலம் செஞ்சீனாவைப் பாருங்கள். அதற்கு மாறாக வெளி நாட்டு பார்வையில் நீங்கள் அதைப் பார்த்தால்,  சீன நிகழ்வுகளை உமது சொந்த பிரச்சனைகளின் அடிப்படையில் மட்டுமே புரிந்து கொள்வீர்கள்.

3. மற்ற கம்யூனிஸ்ட் நாடுகளைப் பற்றி ஏதாவது கற்றுக்கொள்ளுங்கள் (வியட்நாம், வட கொரியா ஆகிய கம்யூனிஸ்ட் நாடுகள் மட்டுமே எஞ்சியிருப்பதால் குறைவான பொருத்தம் மட்டுமே கிடைக்கலாம். இருந்தாலும் கடந்தகால வரலாறு ஓரளவு துணைபுரியும்).

4. மார்க்கசியத்தின் அடிப்படைக் கொள்கைகளைப் படிக்கவும்.

5. மார்க்கசிய சமுதாயத்தில்  உபயோகிக்கப் படும் வார்த்தை பிரயோகம் மற்றும் சொற்கள் மற்ற இடங்களில் இருப்பதைப் போல அதே பொருளைக் கொண்டிருக்கவில்லை என்பதை நினைவில் கொள்ளுங்கள்.

6. உங்கள் பொது அறிவை நினைவு கொள்ளுங்கள்: சீனர்கள் சீனர்களின் குறிப்பிட்ட குணாதிசயங்களைக் கொண்டிருக்கலாம், ஆனால் அவர்கள் மனிதர்கள், எனவே மனிதர்களின் இயல்பான எதிர்வினைகளை அவர்கள் கொண்டுள்ளனர்.

7.மக்கள், பிரச்சினைகளை விட முக்கியமானவர்கள் அல்ல; ஆனால் அவர்கள் ஒருவேளை அதிகமாக இருக்கலாம். ஆகவே அதிகாரத்தைத் தக்கவைத்துக் கொள்வதற்காக, பதவியில் இருக்கும் குழு, எதிர்ப்பவர்களின் திட்டத்தை ஏற்கலாம்.

8. உங்களுக்கு எல்லா பதில்களும் தெரியும் என்று நம்பாதீர்கள். சீனா பதில்களை வழங்குவதை விட அதிகமான கேள்விகளையே எழுப்புகிறது.

9. உங்கள் நகைச்சுவை உணர்வை இழக்காதீர்கள். சீனாவின் படைமுறை அழுத்தம் மிகவும் தீவிரமானது, ஆகவே அதை மிகவும் தீவிரமாக நீங்கள் எடுத்துக்கொள்ள முடியாது. 

10. எல்லாவற்றிற்கும் மேலாக, சிறிய அச்சைப் படியுங்கள்.

மேலும் சீன ஆவணங்கள் மற்றும் அறிக்கைகளை கவனமாக படித்து சொல்லாட்சிக்கும், யதார்த்தத்திற்கும் இடையே உள்ள இடைவெளியை நாம் புரிந்து கொள்ள வேண்டும். குறிப்பாக உணர்ச்சிகரமான விஷயங்களில். அதிபர் ஷீ-இன் வார்த்தைகளில், பத்திரிகைகளுக்கு 'பார்ட்டி' என்ற குடும்பப்பெயர் உண்டு. 

கொள்கைகளின் துணிச்சலான அறிவிப்புகள் செயலில் விளையாமல் போகலாம் அல்லது ஆங்கில தினசரியான பீப்பிள்ஸ் டெய்லி யில் தோன்றாமல் போகலாம். ஆகவே, ஒரு முக்கிய பேச்சு அல்லது அறிக்கையை கடந்த காலங்களில் இதே போன்ற நிகழ்வுகளுடன் ஒப்பிட்டுப் பார்ப்பது எப்போதுமே புத்திசாலித்தனமான செயலாகும். 

சீன யோசனை அல்லது அவர்கள் உபயோகிக்கும் சூசகமான மொழி உண்மையில் புதியதா? அப்படி இருக்கலாம், ஆனால் அதே வார்த்தைகள் கடந்த ஆண்டு தேசிய மக்கள் பேரவை (NPC எனப்படும் சீன பாராளுமன்றம்) அறிக்கையிலோ அல்லது ஒரு தசாப்தத்திற்கு முந்தைய அதிபர் ஹூ ஜின்டாவோவின் உரைகளில் ஒன்றிலோ தோன்றிய இருக்கக்கூடும். கடந்த காலங்களில் உள்ளடக்கப்பட்ட தலைப்புகளில் வேறுபாடுகள் இருந்தால், அவை எதைக் குறிக்கலாம் என்பதைக் கவனியுங்கள். ஒரு 'புதிய சகாப்தம்' அல்லது 'புதிய வளர்ச்சி மாதிரி' பற்றி ஷீ பேசும் அனைத்திற்கும், கடந்த காலத்துடன் கணிசமான ஒற்றுமை உள்ளது.

ஒரு பேச்சு அல்லது அறிக்கையில், 'சில சிக்கல்கள் உள்ளன' பகுதியைப் பாருங்கள்: இது பொதுவாக 'நாங்கள் நன்றாகச் செய்யவில்லையா' என்பற பகுதியை விட அதிகமாக வெளிப்  படுத்துகிறது. கட்சி அரசியல் மற்றும் சீன மொழி இரண்டுமே, கட்சி முழக்கங்களுக்கும் வாசகங்களுக்கும் தங்கள் தனித்தன்மையை அளிக்கின்றன.

வாக்கியவியல் அல்லது வாசகம் முக்கியத்துவம் வாய்ந்தது. கோஷங்கள் என்பது சித்தாந்தம், கொள்கை அல்லது பிரச்சாரத்தின் சுருக்கம். எடுத்துக்காட்டாக, நவம்பர் 2021 இன் ஆறாவது பிளீனத்திலிருந்து, 'இரண்டு நிறுவனங்கள்' என்ற வார்த்தைகள் அடிக்கடி குறிப்பிடப்படுகின்றன.

ஷீ-யை கட்சியின் மையமாகவும், 'புதிய சகாப்தத்திற்கான ஷீ யின் சிந்தனை' யை சித்தாந்தம் மற்றும் வழிகாட்டுதலின் மையமாகவும் நிறுவுவது, ஷீயின் ஆளுமை அதிகாரத்தை கட்டமைக்கும் செயல்முறையின் ஒரு பகுதியாகும். இது இந்த ஆண்டு கட்சி காங்கிரஸில் உறுதிப்படுத்தப் படுத்தப்பட்டது. 

சில வார்த்தை பிரயோகங்கள் அல்லது கட்சியின் அவசியமான பிரமுகர் பெயர்கள் இல்லாமல் இருந்தால் அதற்கு முக்கிய காரணங்கள் இருக்கலாம். அவை ஒரு வேளை சித்தாந்த அடிப்படை மாற்றம் அல்லது அந்த பிரமுகர் அரசியல் சிக்கலில் சிக்கியிருக்கலாம் என்ற ஊகம் மிகைப்படுத்தப்பட்டதா என்பதை கூர்ந்து கவனிக்க வேண்டும்.

அடிப்படைகளைப் புரிந்துள்ள சீனாவின் மிகவும் மாறுபட்ட அரசியல் சித்தாந்த அடிப்படயின் அரசியல் அமைப்பை புரிந்து கொள்வது அவசியம். 

குறிப்பாக புரிந்து கொள்ள வேண்டியவை; 

·       ‘ஆலோசனை லெனினிச அரசு’ (Consultative Leninist State) என்றால் என்ன?  லெனினிஸ்ட் சித்தாந்தத்தில், அரசாங்கம் மற்றும் பிற அமைப்புகளுடனான கட்சியின் உறவைப் புரிந்துகொள்வது முக்கியம். உதாரணமாக, ஷீயின் வார்த்தைகளில் ‘கட்சி எல்லாவற்றையும் வழிநடத்துகிறது’. என்று சொன்னால், அதைப் புரிந்து கொள்ள ஐக்கிய முன்னணி மற்றும் சீன மக்கள் அரசியல் ஆலோசனை மாநாட்டு அமைப்பு பற்றிய புரிதல் தேவை. 

·       கட்சி மற்றும் அரசாங்கத்தின் ஐந்து நிலைகள் (மாகாண, நகரம்/மாநிலம், மாவட்டம், நகரம் மற்றும் கிராமம்) மற்றும் அவற்றின் அதிகாரங்கள் என்ன என்ற புரிதல் தேவை. 

·       கட்சி ஷீயின் கீழ் எவ்வாறு செயல்படுகிறது மற்றும் கட்சி உறுப்பினர் ஆக செயல்படுவது எவ்வாறு என்று தெரிந்து கொள்வது அவசியம். 

சீன கம்யூனிஸ்ட் கட்சி நாட்டின் ஆட்சியை தனது கட்டுப்பாட்டில் வைத்திருக்க வேண்டும் என்ற அடிப்படையில் எப்போதும் செயல்படுகிறது. அதை நியாயப்படுத்த ஆறு காரணங்களை காட்டுகிறது;

1.   மக்களின் வளர்ந்து வரும் செல்வம்

2.   உலக மையத்தில் சீனவுக்கான விசேஷ அந்தஸ்து

3.   நாட்டின் பிராந்திய ஒருமைப்பாடு

4.   சீன கலாசாரத்துக்கு மரியாதை

5.   மிகச்சிறந்த ஆட்சி முறை

6.   அதிகரித்து வரும் சமத்துவமின்மை மற்றும் மாறிவரும் இயற்கை சூழ்நிலையின் பாதிப்பு ஆகியவை அடங்கும்.

மேற்கண்ட ஆறு காரணிகளின் அடிப்படையிலேயே சீனாவின் வெளியுறவுக் கொள்கை இயங்குகிறது. சீன வெளி உறவு எப்போதும் உள்நாட்டில் அது எவ்வாறான தாக்கத்தை ஏற்படுத்தும் என்ற அடிப்படையில் இயங்கினாலும், அதன் அடிப்படை கருத்து வெளி உலகின் நிகழ்வுகள் எவ்வாறு கம்யூனிஸ்ட் அரசின் அங்கீகாரத்தை மக்களிடையே பாதிக்கும் என்பதேயாகும். இதை புரிந்து கொள்ள சீனாவின் சரித்திரமும் அதில் சீன கம்யூனிஸ்ட் கட்சியின் வளர்ச்சியைப் பற்றிய ஞானமும் அவசியம்.

இதை படித்த பின்பு, மற்ற சீன விமர்சகர்களை முழுமையாக ஏற்றுக் கொள்ளாமல், உங்களுடைய பார்வையில் ஏதாவது மாற்று கருத்துக்கள் தோன்றினால்  அவற்றை புறக்கணிக்காதீர்கள்.

(இக்கட்டுரை பல்வேறு பதிவுகளில் இருந்து தொகுக்கப்பட்டது.)

கர்னல் ஆர் ஹரிஹரன் ஓய்வு பெற்ற ராணுவ நுண்ணறிவுத்துறை அதிகாரியாவார். அவர் அத்துறையின் தெற்காசிய நிபுணர் ஆவார்.

 

New episodes of Sri Lanka political theatre

Col R Hariharan 

Sri Lanka Perspectives November 2023 | South Asia Security Trends December 2023 | www.security-risks.com

Overview

Sri Lanka political theatre, gingered up after the dramatic exit of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the wake of the Aragalaya agitation of the masses last year, added a few more episodes during the month of November. Though they were a mix of the good, bad and ugly, the month closed with the good news of Sri Lanka reaching an "agreement in principle" with its lenders including China, to restructure nearly $6.0 billion in loans. This was an essential condition to unlock IMF funding for a bailout. The bad news is party politics affecting Sri Lanka cricket after the team’s poor performance in the recently concluded World Cup leading to its expulsion from the International Cricket Council. Equally bad was President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s effort to override the Constitutional Council to get an extension for his favourite Inspector General of Police. Ugly news was aplenty. The Supreme Court passed a verdict holding the Rajapaksas were responsible for the nation’s economic collapse; but will it affect the family’s political fortunes? There was yet another allegation of government collusion in the 2019 Easter Sunday Jihadi attacks. Last, but not least bit of ugly news, is Wickremesinghe administration using local police and even slapping Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to prevent the Tamils from mourn their war dead on November 27 despite court orders[RH1] . This exposed the government’s doublespeak on ethnic reconciliation.

IMF bailout package

Sri Lanka has reached an "agreement in principle" with its lenders, including China, to restructure nearly $6.0 billion in loans and unlock IMF funding for a bailout. Last month Sri Lanka had reached a deal with EXIM Bank of China on outstanding debt of $4.2 billion. China holds about 52 percent of Sri Lanka’s $46 billion external debt. The finance ministry statement said the deal included a mix of extending the tenure and reducing interest on $ 5.9 billion in bilateral loans granted earlier. President Wickremesinghe will be happy with the agreement as it is key milestone in achieving public debt sustainability to speed up economic recovery. The International Monetary Fund has welcomed the news and said it will “restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability” to unlock the country’s growth potential. After the IMF approval, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are expected to release $200 million and $100 million respectively for projects that have been held up due to the financial crisis last year.

Triggering the economic collapse

Who triggered Sri Lanka’s economic collapse and bankruptcy last year? Obviously, the Rajapaksas then in power who laid down the policy and the officials of finance ministry and fiscal institutions. Sri Lanka Supreme Court stated the obvious in a 4-1 majority judgement while disposing of multiple petitions by civil society and activist groups, spearheaded by Transparency International. It held the two former Rajapaksa presidents and their younger brother and ex-finance minister Basil Rajapaksa, two former central bank governors and other top treasury officials guilty of triggering the island’s worst financial crisis by mishandling the economy.

The judgement has a symbolic value as Transparency International and other petitioners had not sought financial compensation, but “sought a declaration from the court that the mishandling or inaction on the economy by the former heads of state and senior officials did violate the fundamental rights of the people.” But the moot point is will the judgement affect the political fortunes of not only the Rajapaksas or their camp followers, but entire polity sullied by misuse of office and corruption? Sadly, Sri Lanka public have short memories and may not remember the judgement when they go to the hustings next time.

Essentially, this is a political, rather than a fundamental rights issue to be handled by the elected members of parliament. But when legislators dithered, citizens spontaneously took to the streets triggering the unprecedented Aragalaya agitation against the rulers. So the SC judgement at best serves as a bench mark of conduct for politicians, beyond which they may face the Aragalaya again.

Politics of Cricket

Sri Lanka cricket is in a mess, not only because of the team’s dismal performance, winning just two of the nine matches it played, in the recently concluded World Cup. Cricket is big business in the island nation and highly politicised under the tight control of the Sports Ministry. The trouble started even before it played all the matches, when the team was dismissed by India for a measly 55 runs in reply to India’s score of 302. An irate sports minister Roshan Ranasinghe sacked the entire Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) board on November 6 and named a 7-member interim committee in its place. Arjuna Ranatunga, the World Cup-winning former Captain, was named chairman of the committee. Minister Ranasinghe accused the SLC of corruption and blamed it for the declining standards. Ranatunga added penny’s worth by slamming the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) secretary Jay Shah for ruining Sri Lankan cricket. He alleged that the connection between SLC officials and Jay Shah has given the BCCI the impression that they can control and dominate SLC. Meanwhile, the Appeal Court stayed the Sports Minister’s decision to dismiss the SLC. The International Cricket Council (ICC) suspended Sri Lanka for not managing its affairs without government interference. The ICC also shifted the Under-19 world tournament which was to be held in Sri Lanka to South Africa. This created further chaos among players, the selectors and staff as the SLC muddle is unlikely to be resolved soon.  

President Wickremesinghe was not amused at these developments as the Minister did not consult him before he dissolved the SLC. He took the unprecedented step of apologising to Jay Shah for Arjuna Ranatunga’s accusing him of trying to control SLC. The President explained this in an Indian TV interview and indicated he was thinking of bringing in a cricket law! That would be the last straw in autonomously administering the game!

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

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 [RH1]

Humanitarian War: An Oxymoron

By Col R Hariharan | Magazine | Special | India Legal | November 17, 2023

https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/israel-palestine-gaza-civilians-hamas-humanitarian-aid/

 

Israel’s revenge against the Hamas in Gaza has once again highlighted the humanitarian concerns of waging war against terrorists. It was triggered by the Hamas infiltrating across the border killing 1,200 Israelis and foreigners and abducting 240 people. 

The war started on October 7 and already over 12,000 people have died, including Israeli and Palestinian civilians and combatants. The tragedy is compounded by the fact that children form over a third of the dead.

The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which has been providing relief to Palestine people living in West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza since May 1950, reported the death of 102 of its own relief workers as of November 14. Many more of them are unaccounted and could be stuck under the rubble. Around 1.6 million people have been internally displaced and housed in relief camps.

 

Only one fifth of the 35 hospitals in Gaza are functioning. The Hamas appears to have used many of them as a cover for constructing extensive underground tunnels to store weapons and house cadres. As a result of rocket and missile attacks against the underground system, many hospitals have been out of action, causing casualties among patients. The Agency has estimated 50,000 pregnant women in Gaza, with more than 180 giving birth every day. Water, fuel and food to feed the refugee population is likely to run out soon. UNRWA is also running out of money—as against $481 million required for relief work till the end of the year, it has only $128.1 million, representing about 27% of the requirement.

 

Democracies have to be accountable to the people; so, they are hobbled by public opinion in handling the war against terrorists, who are often embedded amidst the population. Often emotions, rather than operational logic, drive their response. This is evident from the emotional responses of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former POTUS George Bush after terrorists attacked their country. Netanyahu in a televised address in October said: “We are at war… Not an operation, not a round, but at war. The enemy will pay an unprecedented price…. Israel would return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known.” This echoed Bush’s sentiments after the 9/11 terrorist attacks: “Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda, but it does not end there. It will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated.”

 

Massive protests against Israeli operations in Gaza have been launched not only in Islamic countries, but also in Israel, Europe and America. Countries debating the war in Gaza in the UN General Assembly (UNGA), including India, have reflected the dilemma nations face in responding to Israel’s Gaza operations. 

India, one of the oldest protagonists of the Palestine cause, has taken a tough stand on cross border terrorism since 2019. This is reflected in its stand on the Israel-Hamas war in the UN. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first one to message Netanyahu, condemning the Hamas attack on October 7. India surprised everyone by abstaining when a non-binding Jordanian resolution was voted in UNGA on October 27. The resolution called for “an immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce” between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza. The resolution also asked for “continuous, sufficient and unhindered” provision of lifesaving supplies and services for the people trapped inside the enclave. An amendment to condemn the Hamas for the initial attack was voted out. 

However, India voted for another UNGA resolution condemning Israeli settlement activity in “Occupied Palestine Territory, including East Jerusalem and in the occupied Syrian Golan”. India’s Deputy Permanent Representative Yojna Patel, explaining India’s vote, said: “Our thoughts are also with those taken hostage. We call for their immediate and unconditional release….This humanitarian crisis needs to be addressed. We welcome the international community’s de-escalation efforts and delivery of humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza.” India too has contributed to this effort.

The Biblical quotation “a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace” (Ecclesiastes 3:8) reflects the reality of humanity reconciling to the idea of war as a part of life. Major religions speak in support of righteous war. The Bhagavad Gita contains exhortations for going to war for the right cause. The Buddhist middle path and its mindfulness techniques to nurture self-control and sense of moderation, tries to humanise war and prevent its worst excesses. 

History is full of “righteous wars” waged for the right cause. Even righteous wars cause death and destruction of innocent civilians, sidelined as collateral damage. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) traces the roots of concern for civilians in times of war to historic concepts of justice such as the Code of Hammurabi (1750 BC) and the Code of Justinian (ad 529-565). Of course, our own concept of Dharma Yudh encompassing the aspect of protecting civilians in times of war is probably even older.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), a set of rules to protect persons who are not participating in hostilities, is contained for the most part in the four Geneva Conventions of 1949 adopted by all nations. It also restricts the methods and means of warfare. The Conventions have been expanded by two Additional Protocols of 1977 relating to the protection of victims of armed conflict and the 2002 Additional Protocol. These Conventions provide specific rules to safeguard combatants who are wounded, sick or shipwrecked and civilians as well as medical personnel, military chaplains and civilian support workers of the military. The bulk of the Convention Part III Articles 27-141 gives regulations governing the status and treatment of protected persons. These provisions distinguish between the situation of foreigners on the territory of one of the parties to the conflict and that of civilians in the occupied territory.

How will IHL apply to countries fighting terrorists in their own country, often extending to the neighbouring country like in the case of Israel and India? UN member states have been carrying out the UN biennial Global Counter Terrorism Strategy Review (GCTSR). The eighth biennial GCTSR resolution was adopted on June 22. It specifically aims at furthering the promotion of human rights and protection of civilian space. But the heated debate that ensued among member states to deprioritise human rights and civil society engagement, based on their own experience against terrorists, showed the lack of consensus among member countries in evolving an acceptable strategy. This is not surprising as the UN has not been able to evolve even an acceptable definition of terrorism itself.

The war in Gaza is poised to become the greatest human tragedy of the 21st century if Iran’s Hezbollah militant groups, active across Israel’s border in Lebanon and Syria, join it. Netanyahu has issued a direct warning to Hezbollah: “Do not make a mistake and enter the war because …your entry into the war will decide Lebanon’s fate.” The Levant is a cauldron of diverse strategic interests pampering their own terrorist groups. This makes intelligence assessments difficult. 

If Hezbollah does not heed Netanyahu’s words and joins the war, Bertrand Russell’s words: “war does not determine who is right—only who is left” may well come true. That will validate my own cynical finding, after fighting insurgents for a few decades, that humanitarian war is an oxymoron. 

The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies