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Sri Lanka’s Maladies of May
Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives May 2023 | South Asia Security Trends June 2023 | www.security-risks.com
Backdrop
Revisiting Sri Lanka Perspectives after a two-month break, we find the
month of May occupies a special place
in Sri Lanka’s history with a seamless continuity of events in yesteryears. The
effects of wasteful politics failing to reap two- and one-half decades of peace
after the Tamil separatist war that ended in May 2009 with the death of
Prabhakaran have continued. The fractured ethnic relations continue to be used
as a political ploy by national parties, often using religious leaders to
promote hatred. Under the patronage of Rajapaksas, political Buddhism is well
entrenched to trigger public opinion.
It was also on a fateful day in May 1991, vengeful Prabhakaran
masterminded the killing of Rajiv Gandhi. The slain former Indian prime
minister was a friend of the Tamils. He acted proactively to settle Sri Lanka’s
ethnic confrontation in their favour, signing the India-Sri Lanka Accord in
1987. The Accord protectes Tamil identity
and provides for limited autonomy the Tamils enjoy now. Prabhakaran’s mindless
killing of Rajiv dissipated the ocean of sympathy Sri Lanka Tamils enjoyed in
India. It is ironical the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) that extended lukewarm support to the 1987
Accord, in its morphed avatar as Tamil National Alliance ( TNA) now wants India’s
help to enforce it.
The Covid-19 pandemic added to the plight of the people already
groaning under the economic mismanagement under Gotabaya. May 9, 2022 is also
remembered for the infamous ‘Black Monday’ attack by goons of the ruling Sri
Lanka Podujana Party (SLPP) and supporters of Rajapaksas on Aragalaya
protesters to disperse them. The Black Monday attacks proved a disaster for
the political fortunes of the Rajapaksas. To escape public wrath, they had to
quit the government and seek
sanctuaries at home and abroad. The Rajapaksas however persuaded Ranil
Wickremesinghe, the leader of the United National Party (UNP) rejected by the
people in the general elections, to become a proxy prime minister. Ultimately,
Ranil was elected President by a majority of parliamentarians.
It can happen only in Sri Lanka that Ranil’s Faustian bargain with
Rajapaksas to become President with no popular mandate is leading the fight for
Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. It is to Wickremesinghe’s credit that he is
doing a better job of economic recovery unlike the Rajapaksas whose populist
policies plunged the national economy to the south.
It is in this overall backdrop the happenings in the month of May
2023 have to be understood.
One year after Aragalaya
One of the key elements of Aragalaya protest was against the
introduction of 20th Amendment by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
The 20A had superseded 19A enabling the president to accumulate powers in his
hands, particularly in exercising control over the so-called independent
commissions and in making key appointments to high office. The 21A is a
compromise between the motley collection of parties including Rajapaksa
supporters that came together to ensure the Aragalaya protests do not push them
into irrelevance. 21A makes the President more accountable to parliament
and restore independent commissions.
Before the month ended, the continuing standoff between the
Minister of power and energy Kanchana Wijesekara over the sacking of the
chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCL) Janaka
Ratnayake, a Rajapaksa appointee, came to a boil when the parliament voted him
out of office as chairman.
Ratnayake’s sacking had all the elements of a B grade TV political
serial. Minister Wijesekara as minister has brought some semblance of order in
the distribution of energy resources to the suffering of the public. Sacking of
Ratnayake was part of his restructuring exercise. But the dismissed PUCL
chairman refused to budge and used the publicity garnered by the stand-off, to
hint at contesting the next presidential election as a candidate. This minor
incident showed the lack of spirit among stakeholders for any reform, even
though members may speak eloquently on improving governance.
Incidents of corruption at high levels continue to be reported.
They justify the common man’s distrust of the political class. Newspapers
reported that a Chinese man with a forged Guinea passport was apprehended by
the immigration staff while trying to enter Colombo international
airport. The reports said the state minister for urban development and
Housing Arundika Fernanda, had instructed the immigration authorities to
release him and permit him to enter the country as he was a ‘foreign investor.’
In another sordid incident, the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC)
Puttalam MP Ali Sabri Raheem was arrested by Customs officers at Bandaranaike
air port while attempting to enter the country carrying undeclared haul of
3.397 kg of gold worth SL Rs 75 million. He was also carrying 91 smart phones
worth SL Rs 4.2 million. He was released after paying a fine of SL Rs 7.4
million after a brief inquiry. Customs have confiscated the gold and
smartphones.
Unless the government is able to curb corruption and
aberrations of governance, we can expect another Aragalaya protest to gather
strength among the younger generation.
Economic recovery
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff mission made a
12-day visit to Colombo during the month to discuss the recent economic
developments and implementation of the IMF supported programme. In a statement
the IMF said “Following strong policy efforts, the macroeconomic situation in
Sri Lanka is showing tentative signs of improvement, with inflation moderating,
the exchange rate stabilising, and the Central Bank rebuilding reserves
buffers. However, the overall macroeconomic and policy environment remains
challenging.
The mission said it discussed additional fiscal efforts that
will be critical to ensure successful revenue mobilisation. The mission also discussed progress on debt
restructuring, noting the ongoing discussions with both foreign and domestic
creditors. The IMF expected to formally assess the performance under the
programme to be undertaken in September 2023. The mission stressed the need to
achieve timely restructuring agreements with creditors in line with the
programme targets by then. It said the need to keep up the reform momentum,
timely implementation of programme commitments on ensuring the independence of
the central bank, improved governance and protect the vulnerable people are key for Sri Lanka to emerge from the economic
crisis.
The President will have to bite the bullet to sell the IMF package
to the people, tighten government expenditure and introduce tax reforms. Unless
there is some consensus on the reforms among mainstream political parties, the
President will not be able take the country through this difficult process.
Despite political gerrymandering by political leaders, India with
$4 billion largesse is in the forefront of nations helping Sri Lanka’s economic
recovery. The month ended with the State Bank of India extending a $1 billion
credit facility till March 2024. Japan and Western nations are also helping Sri
Lanka particularly in restructuring its economy with the help of the IMF.
During the month China’s vice premier for foreign affairs Sun
Weidong visited Sri Lanka. The Chinese minister met Sri Lanka’s prime minister
Gunawardena and assured that China will increase investments in several areas
such as agriculture, trade and commerce, ports and infrastructure development.
He also said that China will continue to provide economic assistance as well as
support the country’s debt restructuring programme. However, China, the biggest
of Sri Lanka’s debtors, has so far not relented to Sri Lanka’s request to defer
Chinese debts.
In a significant move, Sri Lanka has signed an agreement
with Sinopec Fuel Production and Marketing Dept, a Chinese company, to import,
store, distribute and sell petroleum through a dealer network. The company gets
a 20 year licence to operate 150 fuel stations currently operated by CPC and
invest in 50 more fuel stations. Sinopec will rely on its own funds for fuel
procurement from overseas during the initial year of operation.
China is well entrenched in Sri Lanka, probably next only to
Pakistan, as its much trumpeted international finance city is coming up on the
Colombo reclamation project. As China further
firms up its presence in Sri Lanka, India and its Quad allies – Australia,
Japan and the US - are likely to draw Sri Lanka strategically closer to further
Indian Ocean security. Sri Lanka’s economic recovery is tangled in these
strategic moves.
Tailpiece
‘Superstar’ Rajinikanth invited: Sri Lanka’s Deputy High
Commissioner at Chennai Dr D Venkateshwaran has invited ‘Superstar’ Rajinikanth
to visit Sri Lanka “as his presence will enhance cinema induced tourism as well
as spiritual and wellness tourism,” according to a media report. The diplomat
is said to have personally invited him to explore the “Ramayana Trail” and
other Buddhist sacred sites, promoted by Sri Lanka tourism to attract Indian
tourists.
Col R Hariharan, a
retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of
intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is
associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]