South China Sea Tensions Will Spill Over into Indian Ocean, Warns Ex-Indian Colonel

 https://sputniknews.in/20230630/south-china-sea-tensions-will-spill-over-into-indian-ocean-warns-ex-indian-colonel-2756166.html

Dhairya Maheshwari / June 30, 2023/ Sputnik news India

Daniel Kritenbrink, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, has said that Washington expects a greater partnership with India in the South China Sea.

A former officer in India’s Directorate of Military Intelligence has told Sputnik that “worsening” of tensions between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea carry the potential to spill over into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and affect the regional dynamics in the South Asian region.

“Most of South Asia (with the exception of Pakistan) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are now part of the US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM),” underlined Colonel (Retd.) R. Hariharan, who oversaw the Indian Army’s intelligence operations across South Asia.

Hariharan, who was also part of the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) to Sri Lanka in the 1980s, said that a greater India-US strategic convergence under the Quad framework would “inevitably raise concerns” among Bangladesh and Myanmar.

“And greater coordination and cooperation between their navies means greater the concern particularly when these smaller powers (Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka) are trying to balance their relationship with China's increasing footprint in South Asia,” the Army veteran remarked.

With the exception of India and Bhutan, all the other South Asian nations are part of Beijing-backed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing also ranks among the top two biggest trading partners of all South Asian nations, including India’s.

Hariharan cautioned that since New Delhi was the only Quad member which shared a “long border” with Beijing, thus making it a “key partner” in American strategic calculations to compete with China.

New Delhi and Beijing are involved in a military standoff in the eastern Ladakh region. Troops from both sides clashed at the Galwan Valley region in 2020, resulting in 20 Indian and five Chinese fatalities.

India has maintained that peace and tranquillity at the border are the basis of its overall bilateral relations with China.

Meanwhile, Washington has made no secret about its strategic motive to maintain its global pre-eminence with the help of a network of allies and partners amid Beijing’s growing economic and political clout.

The Biden administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), released last year, described Beijing as the “most consequential” global challenger to the US.

‘Increasing Coordination’ Between Indian and US Navy

The military intelligence expert predicted that there would be an “increasing level of coordination” between the Indian and US Navies in the coming months.

“The US policy on India is a complex one conditioned by its strategic

 

perceptions,” Hariharan commented.

He noted that the US and India have now signed all the four “foundational pacts” which Washington asks a country to do in order to supply it with advanced military technology.

These pacts are:

General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA);

Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA);

Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA);

Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Hariharan explained that as per LEMOA, Washington could use the Indian naval bases for repair and maintenance.

“The COMCASA provides for secure communication between the two. But, the most important is the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) signed in 2020, which allows sharing of geospatial information and improve operational efficiency of US equipment used by India,” the Army veteran said as he outlined the significance of the foundational agreements.

New Delhi and Washington have also concluded the ‘Master Ship Repair Agreement’ to potentially make India a “hub for maintenance and repair for forward deployed US Navy assets”.

Hariharan said that US has designated New Delhi as a “major defense partner” and was treating it “on par” with a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally.

New Delhi has rejected American overtures on being part of a ‘NATO Plus’ arrangement, with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stating that a ‘NATO template’ doesn’t apply to India.

 

Sri Lanka: Ranil’s ambitious DDO plans

 Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives June 2023 | South Asia Security Trends July 2023 | www.security-risks.com

President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s efforts to re-structure both domestic and external debt to meet International Monetary Fund debt ceilings on debt sustainability made some progress by the end of the month.  In the wake of Sri Lanka’s economic collapse last year, the IMF had extended nearly $3 billion External Fund Facility. As on March 2023, Sri Lanka’s foreign and domestic debts were around $ 41.5 billion and $ 42.1 billion.

A special session of parliament is being debt convened on July1 and 2 to discuss and approve the plan for Domestic Debt Optimisation (DDO).

The Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weeresinghe briefed the media on the DDO plan. The DDO aims at restructuring the nations domestic debt by recasting the outgoing sums of the pension funds and offering international sovereign bondholders a repayment plan with a 30% haircut. This means the Central Bank will convert superannuation funds, treasury bonds and treasury bonds to longer term maturity treasury bonds.

The DDO aims to protect local banks who are already affected by NPA by excluding them from the plan. Explaining this, the Governor said “It is vital to protect the banking sector, as a collapse [of it] would have a catastrophic consequence for some 57 million depositors.” On the other hand, the DDO will transfer the burden on superannuation funds, including the Employees Provident Fund (EPF). With these measures Sri Lanka hopes to reduce its Debt to GDP ratio from 125% to 95%.

President Wickremesinghe has described the SL Rs 700 billion worth DDO as a “small sacrifice” for Sri Lanka shedding the “bankrupt” label by September.

Speaking at a meeting in Colombo, the President appealed to the people to support the debt restructuring plan. If not, he cautioned, “If we do this successfully, we can go forward. If we go and change it, you go down. What will happen if we let go of this? We will immediately lose the $700 million that the World Bank has committed. The second IMF review will be a failure and I hope by September that Sri Lanka will be able to shed its bankruptcy status.”

The plan to use the EPF to implement the DDO had caused concern among trade unions. The delegation of trade union leaders met the President. President Wickremesinghe has assured that priority was being given to ensure protection of depositors as well as the members of the EPF. In this respect he has asked the MPs to support necessary legislation to guarantee 9% return to EPF members.

The Committee on Public Finance (COPF) chairman Harsha de Silva tweeted on June 30, the Committee endorsed the DDR proposal with majority support. Opposition members had voted against it. The chairman de Silva had expressed some reservations on the plan affecting the EPF and superannuation funds; so he did not vote. In any case he belongs to the main opposition Samagi Jama Balawegaya (SJB) which has decided to vote against the DDR.

The passing of the DDR plan in parliament on July 2 will determine not only the future course of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery but also will determine the political fortunes of the Rajapaksas. President appears to have embarked on a mission to get a Yes from the people for the DDR plan, more than political factions supporting or opposing him. This may well determine the contours of future political developments in the nation.

Among Sri Lankan leaders perhaps Wickramasinghe is a good negotiator at the international level.  But getting ‘Yes’ from the people is not easy. In the classic book on negotiations “Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In”, authors Roger Fisher, William Ury and Bruce Patton argue that negotiators don’t have to choose between either waging a strictly competitive, win or lose negotiation battle or caving in to avoid conflict.

They argue that bargainers should look at negotiation strategies that can help both sides get a little more than they want. This requires closely listening to each other, treating each other fairly and jointly exploring options to increase value. Can the President whose survival in power depends upon the how the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) conducts itself in Parliament, carry his economic plan to its logical success? Only time will tell, as the SLPP has its umbilical linkages to the Rajapaksas, who are fighting their own battles.

Tailpiece: Gotabaya rides again!

Former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa is once again in the news for all the wrong reasons. An Associated Press news report on June 22 stated the former president has been accused of allegedly “tampering with police records in order to hamper investigations into mass graves discovered in an area where he was a military officer at the height of a bloody JVP (Marxist) insurrection in 1989. The allegation was made in a report recently released by the International Truth and Justice Project, Journalists for Democracy and Families of the Disappeared in Sri Lanka. The report alleged that Gotabaya while serving as defence secretary under brother President Mahinda Rajapaksa ordered the destruction of all police recorders older than five years at police stations where the mass graves were discovered.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info