Sri Lanka wins? Not yet…Mr President

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives June 2024 | South Asia Security Trends, July 2024 | https://www.security-risks.com

 

The month of June was a busy one for President Ranil Wickremesinghe. He announced his candidacy for the presidential election, cashing on his success with the restructuring of debtors achieved in the Paris Club meeting that satisfies the International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt relief package.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced his carefully orchestrated entry into the presidential fray with a TV address. He said, “Today makes a significant milestone in the recent history of our country….Our country is now reaping the positive results of our persistent endeavours over the past years.  This morning in Paris, Sri Lanka reached a final agreement with our official bilateral creditors. Similarly, we signed another agreement with China’s Exim Bank today in Beijing.” He was announcing the successful clinching of a deal with key bilateral lenders including China and India covering up to $10 billion in debt. This was a critical step towards recovery after Sri Lanka’s 2022 financial crash.

“Sri Lanka won” Wickremesinghe said after saying, “Sri Lanka concluded negotiations with the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) and the Exim Bank of China.”  The President was referring to the agreement Sri Lanka had signed in Paris on June 26 with the OCC co-chaired by Japan, India and France that have lent a combined $5.8 billion. A separate agreement was signed with China’s EXIM Bank in Beijing to rework $4.2 billion to ensure compatibility between debtors. Th IMF had laid restructuring of bilateral debt agreements as one of the key conditions for its US$ $2.9 billion bailout program to improve Government finances. Sri Lanka’s total external debt is US$ 37 billion.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on June 27 that Sri Lanka’s agreements with China and other creditor nations to restructure about US$ 10 billion in bilateral debt took the island nation a step closer towards restoring debt sustainability. Welcoming the news, IMF’s Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Peter Breuer said “We hope that there will be swift progress on reaching agreements with external private creditors in the near future.”

The parliament is set to meet on July 2 and 3 to debate the implementation of foreign debt restructuring agreements and vote on proposals contained in the Resolution for the Implementation of External Debt Restructuring Agreements bill. Opposition parties and section of the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) are getting ready to question some of the tough measures taken by the President to conform to IMF conditions. He has doubled taxes, removed energy subsidies and is set to sell off loss-making state enterprises to shore up state revenue under that deal.

The President in his speech focused on the positive aspects of his approach. He said the debt restructuring is a condition of the IMF bailout. “Sri Lanka has sought IMF assistance on 16 previous occasions, each ending in failure. Why? We consistently failed to meet the conditions set, neglected our commitments, and lacked financial discipline.”

Wickremesinghe reminded that this was the first instance in Sri Lanka’s history where an IMF program has been successfully implemented. At the same time, he hoped the IMF bailout of $2.9 billion he secured last year would be the country’s last. He emphasized “unlike the earlier16 instances, we approached the IMF…. as a country facing bankruptcy. Given this context, I pose a crucial question: Will you move forward with me, who comprehended the problem from its inception, offered practical solutions, and delivered results?” In a snide reference to his detractors, he asked “Or will you align with those grappling in the dark, still struggling to grasp the issues? Will you stay the course towards a brighter future for yourself and the nation? Or will you opt for a different path?” Cautioning the people against the perils of veering off course or choosing the wrong path, Wickremesinghe appealed to the people to make the right decision. 

Striking an emotional tone, he highlighted his achievement. He said, “The future does not merely belong to Ranil Wickremesinghe; it pertains to the country, to your future, and the future of our children. In just two years, without a parliamentary majority, without my appointed Government officials or ministers, I successfully elevated our country from bankruptcy and economic turmoil to a position that astonished the world.” Even as he spoke, his supporters in Colombo celebrated by setting off firecrackers.

On June 30, Wickremesinghe held his first Ekva Jayagamu (Victory through unity) rally at Mattara. The core theme of his speech was the need for the unity of a coalition committed to the nation’s interest, regardless of political affiliation for the collective effort for the country’s success. The President also went on to explain some of the welfare measures to help marginalised people like the ‘Awesuma’ programme for free distribution of rice and ‘Urumaya’ programme for giving deeds for freehold lands.

He extended an invitation to the opposition, urging them to prioritise national interest over partisan politics. Present on the stage were some MPs who belonged to SLPP and SLFP-New Alliance. Practitioners of political shenanigans were equally busy as debate over the presidential poll hotted up.

Illegal fishing in Sri Lanka waters

India’s woes on fishermen from Tamil Nadu poaching in Sri Lanka waters went a notch up with the tragic loss of life of a Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) senior sailor due to critical injuries suffered on night June 25. The incident occurred when the SLN craft patrolling off Kankesanthurai chased an Indian trawler poaching in Sri Lankan waters. It is a timely reminder to both countries to resolve the long pending dispute over traditional fishing areas against maritime boundaries. The issue has been aggravated by use of illegal trawl nets by fishermen banned by Sri Lanka.

According to The Morning, in March, President Wickremesinghe instructed authorities to urgently find a definitive solution to the recurring issue of Indian fishermen encroaching into Sri Lankan waters. In order to find a permanent solution to this issue, President Wickremesinghe sent a delegation under his Chief of Staff Sagala Ratnayaka to New Delhi despite in March to discuss this issue with his counterparts. However, so far, the poaching issue continues to remain elusive.

With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi back in power for the third time, anti-Indian elements in Sri Lanka are back in play. Sri Lanka government’s discussion with India on increasing energy and land communication linkages are already on the card of anti-India lobby. They are likely to increase their decibel levels when presidential electioneering gets under way. Indian fisherman poaching in Sri Lanka waters is already a major issue in Northern province. This is likely to provide additional fodder to flog India during the run up to the presidential election.

Obituary R Sampanthan

It is a sad moment for Sri Lankan politics. One of the veteran Tamil  leaders Rajavarotham Sampanthan, who fought for a just solution for the equitable treatment of Tamils all his life, passed away in Colombo late on Sunday (June 30). A veteran Tamil politician and long time leader of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), his political career spanned six decades. His first stint in the Sri Lankan parliament starting in 1977. Sampanthan was the incumbent MP for Trincomalee District and has served in five parliaments since 1977. His speeches in parliament were known for his incisive analyses and eloquence.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]

Resurrecting Orphans of Cold War

 Is the US trying to revive the Tibetan autonomy issue as part of its new Cold War against China?

Col R Hariharan | June 3, 2024

https://www.c3sindia.org/post/resurrecting-orphans-of-cold-war-col-r-hariharan

Courtesy: The Hindu

The Chinese dragon turns into a frenzy when other countries talk about Tibet or Tibetan identity and religion; and it breathes fire when anyone refers to the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibetans. The recently passed US House of Representatives bipartisan bill that questions China’s control over Tibet seems to have achieved both the reactions. ‘The Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ is awaiting President Baiden’s signature. The Resolve Tibet Act, as it is referred to in short, seeks to promote a dialogue between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama. It also empowers State Department officials to actively and directly counter ‘disinformation’ about Tibet from the Chinese government and reject false claims that Tibet has been part of China since “ancient times.” It pushes for negotiations without preconditions between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama’s representatives. To add to China’s agony, close on the heels of the passing of the Resolve Tibet Act, a bipartisan US congressional delegation, led by House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Michael Mc Caulis visited Dharamsala, the seat of Tibetan government in exile and met with Tibetan representatives. The delegates also called upon the Dalai Lama. Mc Caulis presented the Dalai Lama with a framed copy of The Resolve Tibet Act. Tibetans gave a public felicitation to the delegates after their meeting with the Dalai Lama. Former speaker Nancy Pelosi, member of the delegation addressing the gathering said “this bill is a message to the Chinese government that we have clarity in our thinking and our understanding of this issue of the freedom of Tibet.” After Pelosi said the Dalai Lama “with his message of compassion…and love, will live a long time and his legacy will live forever”, she fired a broadside at Chinese President Xi Jinping. She said “you will be gone and nobody will give you credit for anything.” The US delegation went on to New Delhi to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A few days ago, the Dalai Lama, aged 88, flew into New York to a warm welcome by hundreds of Tibetans. The Buddhist leader, visiting the US after 17 years, will be undergoing treatment for his knees. It is not clear whether the spiritual leader will meet any US officials during his visit. The US delegation’s visit to Dharamsala and meeting with the Dalai Lama and their promotion of the Resolve Tibet Act has drawn global attention to the Tibetan issue, which was almost forgotten. The publicity surrounding the Dalai Lama’s trip to the US has further infuriated Beijing. China minced no words in condemning the US Act and asked President Joe Biden not to sign it. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters “Any one or any force who attempts to destabilise Xizang (China’s official name for Tibet) to contain or suppress China will not succeed.” He called it a sovereignty issue and added “The US should not sign the bill. China will take resolute measures to defend its sovereignty, security and development interests.” Lin said Xizang was now enjoying a tranquil and harmonious society, positive economic growth and has opened up new grounds for long term stability and high-quality development. The American move on Tibet is making China highly uncomfortable. Is America trying to resurrect the Tibet autonomy issue as part of the Grey Warfare brewing for some time to cut down President Xi’s efforts to create a Sino-centric world order? It took the PRC three decades to bring Tibet under its full control. At the height of the Cold War, between 1950 and 1972 the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in close cooperation with the Departments of State (DoS) and Defense (DoD), conducted a comprehensive covert action campaign in support of Tibetan resistance movements fighting against Communist Chinese occupation of their homeland. The campaign’s stated goal was “to keep the political concept of an autonomous Tibet alive within Tibet and among several foreign nations.” Its similarity to the objective of The Resolve Tibet Act must be making China nervous. During the covert action, the CIA strengthened various isolated Tibetan groups to fight against the Chinese. It trained and raised a paramilitary force of 2000 Tibetans in the border areas of Nepal. During this period, the Dalai Lama and some 80 supporters fled to India on March 31,1959. India welcomed the spiritual leader and his supporters and offered them a home in Dharamsala. Since then, his presence across the border of Tibet acts as a beacon for Tibetans, who are slowly losing their culture and identity under Han hegemony. During the period of CIA intervention, some 87,000 Tibetans and 2,000 Chinese troops were killed. Over 100,000 Tibetans fled as refugees to India, Nepal, and Bhutan during the conflict. Revival of the Tibetan issue by the US will revive the bitter memories of the war of liberation, probably hidden from the younger generation of Tibetans. Tibetan government in exile estimates 1.2 million Tibetans -representing one fifth of the population - died due to China’s policies. Over 6000 monasteries, temples and historic buildings were destroyed. Thousands were arrested and suffered in prisons and labour camps. Another estimate suggests that more than 456,000 Tibetans were annihilated in the active conflict period between 1956 and 1962. In August 2020, President Xi in a speech said it is “necessary to actively guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to the socialist society and promote Sinicization of Tibetan Buddhism. In July 2021, Xi visited Tibet for the 70th anniversary of Tibet’s peaceful liberation. He emphasized the need to Sinicize Tibetan Buddhism and strengthen Tibetans’ identification with China and its culture. Sinicization of Tibetan Buddhism is an oxymoron as without Tibetan identity, language and culture the religion will not exist. Already, young Tibetans in China are losing touch with Tibetan language and culture as Tibet is swamped by Hans. Any foreign intervention could jeopardise Xi’s Sinicization plans. Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, China’s focus on Tibet’s border security and infrastructure has intensified. In particular, the infrastructure development of border areas with India has been taken up in a big way, perhaps to buttress his claims to Arunachal Pradesh, which China identifies as South Tibet. This includes the construction of 624 border defence villages. In the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-25), China has allocated 190 billion Yuan (about $29.3 billion) for infrastructure development in border regions. This includes civil and military infrastructure, roads, railways, expressways and airports. Already tightening of the border security measures has seen a drop in the number of Tibetans crossing the border as refugees, from 753 Tibetans in 2011 to five in 2022. China is unlikely to respond to the revival of any talks with the Dalai Lama and his representatives. Nine rounds of dialogues were held between them from 2002 to 2010. They did not yield concrete results. China insists on talking to the Dalai Lama’s representatives and not the representatives of the Tibetan government in exile based in Dharamsala. China also wants the Dalai Lama to “fundamentally reflect on and thoroughly correct his political views.” The Dalai Lama is not in good health and there is talk of choosing his successor in the air. The Chinese are likely to stall any American pressure to resume talks, till they choose a successor to the Dalai Lama. The CIA’s Tibet intervention ended in 1972 when POTUS Nixon wanted to recast US relations with China. The Dalai Lama in his 1991 autobiography Freedom in Exile has criticized the CIA for supporting the Tibetan independence movement not because they (the CIA) cared about Tibetan independence, but as part of their worldwide efforts to destabilize all communist governments. Given this background, the Tibet issue has the potential to become a talking point in the American presidential election debates in the next few months. The US is locked in the Ukraine conflict and in the South China Sea confrontation with China. It may not find the time and energy to revive the Tibetan intervention except as a potential threat to further unnerve the Chinese. John Kenneth Knaus, one of the CIA operatives who participated in the Tibetan resistance to fight China, aptly titled his memoir Orphans of the Cold War in sympathy for the plight of Tibetans. They have not only lost their independence, but also are in danger of losing their identity. India is in a unique position as any threat of American intervention can serve as an incentive for China to build better relations with India.Can India which has given refuge to the Dalai Lama and thousands of Tibetan refugees do more? I hope our political leadership ponders over this and factor it in India’s China policy. Col R Hariharan is a retired MI specialist on South Asia and Indian Ocean Region. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for Chin Studies. E-mail haridirect@gmail.com Website https://col.hariharan.info