Pakistan releasing the downed IAF
pilot Abhinandan Varthaman has the ball in India’s court. But Imran
Khan, too, will have to de-escalate the situation by dismantling terrorist
camps
Col R Hariharan | Perspective | India Legal |
March 1, 2019 |
With IAF pilot Wing
Commander Abhinandan Varthaman back home from Pakistan and
receiving a hero’s welcome, tempers have cooled down somewhat between India and
its neighbour which were on the brink of a confrontation. These relations
entered a potential conflict zone after 12 IAF Mirage 2000s carried out a
carefully crafted mission to destroy the largest Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)training centre in
Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan. Apart from this, camps were
destroyed in Muzaffarabad and Chakothi in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) on
February 26. India’s muscular response was to avenge JeM’s suicide bomb attack
on a CRPF convoy in Pulwama in J&K, killing 40 jawans.
Though
India’s response came 12 days after the Pulwama attack, it was well-planned to
cover political, diplomatic and military aspects. This was evident in the way
the Air Force had meticulously planned to ensure total surprise. The IAF strike
was supported by airborne early warning and control radar systems designed to
detect and track aircraft, missiles and ships, and air defence cover by Sukhoi
30MKI aircraft, while Heron drones conducted surveillance of the LoC. In order
to achieve total surprise, the Mirages were inducted directly into operation
from Gwalior with Ilyushin (Il-78) aircraft providing mid-air fuelling
facility. It was a demonstration of the IAF’s capability to carry out a complex
air operation. Both Pakistan and China would have taken note of this to factor
it in their strategic matrix.
India
has made it clear that the operation was not against the Pakistan military or
its people. Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, in an official statement, called
the operation “an intelligence-led operation” carried out in the early hours of
the day. He said: “India struck the biggest training camp of JeM in Balakot. In
this operation, a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior
commanders and groups of jihadis who were being trained for fidayeen action
were eliminated.”
He
added that Pakistan had taken no concrete action to dismantle the
infrastructure of terrorism, though India had been repeatedly urging it to act
against the JeM. Justifying the action, he said that “credible intelligence was
received that JeM was attempting another suicide terror attack in various parts
of the country”. He described the action as a “non-military pre-emptive action”
and emphasised that “the selection of target was also conditioned by our desire
to avoid civilian casualties. The facility is located in thick forest on a
hilltop far away from any civilian presence”.
Pakistan
was in a tizzy after the Indian air strike. It closed its air space for
civilian air traffic. Provincial governments were put on security alert.
According to an IAF spokesman, over the next two days, Pakistan aircraft had
violated Indian air space in J&K 32 times. Pakistan’s retaliatory strike
came a day after the Balakot attack when three PAF fighters, out of a formation
of 10 PAF war planes including F-16s, JF-17s and Mirage 5s, crossed the LoC and
intruded seven km into Indian airspace in Nowshera area to strike at three
military targets. According to media reports, Pakistan’s targets included a
brigade headquarters in Krishna Ghati (Poonch), a battalion headquarters (near
Nangi Tehri) and a supply dump and ammunition point in Nyari. However, two
MiG-21 interceptors scrambled to drive away the Pakistani aircraft, which
dumped their bombs in open ground.
Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan
initially put up a brave face when he addressed the joint session of his
parliament to discuss the increasing tension. He said that despite his multiple
overtures for peace, the response from New Delhi was not encouraging. He said:
“We realised that it was because of upcoming elections in India.” So the
government decided to wait until the polls in India were over before making
another offer for talks. However, he “feared they would do something”.
He
said he had a meeting with Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa after the
Indian aircraft violated Pakistani air space. At this meeting, it was decided
that Pakistan would not respond straightaway. “We realised that Pakistani
people might get upset that we did not respond, but we decided that since we
did not know if there were any casualties, in case of an immediate response,
there will be escalation.”
His
explanation that the only purpose of Pakistan’s strike was to demonstrate its
capability, and not to inflict any casualty on India, is unbelievable. It is
doubtful if any country would use its valuable air assets merely to demonstrate
its capability, particularly in an operationally critical situation.
However,
the capture of its pilot skewed India’s priorities for a while as the air
strike in Balakot and PoK was carried out to fulfill PM Narendra Modi’s promise
to avenge the Pulwama killings and put a stop to JeM terrorist activity in
J&K. However, after Pulwama, Imran Khan promised to take action if India
produced evidence of the alleged involvement of Pakistan-based JeM terrorists.
This has been Pakistan’s standard ploy to delay action on India’s complaints.
After the dastardly 26/11 attack in Mumbai, India had produced dossiers of
evidence, but there was no follow-up action.
However, after the air strike on
Balakot, India made available the dossier of the evidence to Pakistan. Earlier,
India had given the dossier to the US, China and other powers too. Modi’s
action was in tune with the public opinion in India, which applauded the IAF’s
successful strike. But a day later, public opinion rallied to demand the
release of the pilot, turning it into the first priority.
The
pilot’s capture gave a breather to Imran Khan as tremendous international
pressure was building up on Pakistan to take action to curb JeM terrorist activities.
The US stand was unambiguously in favour of India, with US Secretary of State
Michael Pompeo describing the Indian air strike as “counter terrorism actions”.
After speaking to the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan, he asked both
countries to “exercise restraint, and avoid escalation at any cost”. Almost all
UNSC members also appealed to both countries to exercise restraint. No country
condemned India’s air strike inside Pakistan.
Hussain
Haqqani, former Pakistan ambassador to Washington and currently with Hudson
Institute, aptly summed up the situation in his tweet: “International community
including China have advised both sides to ‘exercise restraint.’ So far, no
country has supported Pakistan against ‘violation of sovereignty’ or ‘Indian aggression’.”
Well-known scholar Christian Fair was more forthright. She tweeted: “Pakistan
attacks India incessantly using terror proxies which the army, ISI and navy
arm, resource, train, and launch on missions they design all over India outside
Kashmir. So Pakistanis should literally shut up and take it as the punishment
their state deserves.”
Pakistan
must have been disappointed with China cautiously wording its comments after
the situation worsened between India and Pakistan. China will be caught in an
anomalous situation if confrontation breaks out into a full-fledged war. Though
China and Pakistan enjoy a multifaceted relationship and have a strategic
security agreement, the former’s relations with India are also growing, but on
a different plane. China enjoys a trade surplus of over $73 billion with India;
India had been clocking over seven percent growth on an average for the last
five years and presents a huge, attractive market for Chinese goods. Moreover,
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the infrastructure development project in
which China is investing over $40 billion, passes through PoK and any military
confrontation will affect the progress of the project.
In addition, India has become an
essential partner in China-sponsored multilateral forums such as BRICS and the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China is also strengthening trilateral
cooperation with India and Russia. Chinese state councillor and foreign
minister Wang Yi said the three countries had agreed to firmly uphold
multilateralism and the international system with the UN as the core, as well
as the basic norms of international relations, including the principle of
non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries.
So
it is not surprising to see Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lu Kang
saying: “We are indeed worried about the current tension between Pakistan and
India.” Wang Yi has repeatedly expressed China’s concerns in his talks with his
counterparts in India and Pakistan. The spokesperson said: “We urge both Pakistan
and India to exercise the utmost restraint and conduct dialogue as soon as
possible. Control the situation and jointly safeguard peace and stability.”
According
to Reuters,
the US, UK and France have proposed that the UN Security Council blacklist
Masood Azhar, the head of JeM. They asked the 15-member UN Security Council
sanctions committee to subject him to an arms embargo, global travel ban and
assets freeze. However, the proposal will only be finalised on March 13 after
consensus. China as the lone supporter of Pakistan had delayed the action in
the committee on “technical grounds”.
Last,
but not least, is Pakistan’s precarious economic situation which makes going to
war the least favourable option. Pakistan is beholden to China and Saudi Arabia
for financial support to tide through the crisis as its foreign reserves are in
single-digit.
Hemmed
in by these constraints, Imran took everyone by surprise when he announced in
parliament on February 28 that “in our desire for peace” and as a first step to
open negotiations, Pakistan would be releasing the IAF officer. He added that
Pakistan’s efforts for de-escalation should not be construed as “weakness”.
Imran’s
move to release the prisoner has clearly put the ball in Modi’s court. Though
the Indian PM has said that India will pursue its objective to eradicate the
terrorist threat, on the eve of elections, public opinion could be divided over
continuing with operations across the LoC, particularly after Imran’s goodwill
gesture. This was evident from the welcome his announcement received from many
leaders in India and abroad.
Punjab
Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh said: “I’m very happy, I had demanded
his (the pilot’s) release earlier too. This is going to be a step towards
goodwill and I hope this will be lasting.” Former J&K Chief Minister
Mehbooba Mufti, too, complimented Imran, saying he had “exhibited real
statesmanship today”. She hoped that “our leadership will reciprocate and try
to de-escalate the situation”. She also hoped that Imran would act upon the
evidence provided to Pakistan “so that tension between the two countries ends”.
In addition, India has become an
essential partner in China-sponsored multilateral forums such as BRICS and the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China is also strengthening trilateral
cooperation with India and Russia. Chinese state councillor and foreign
minister Wang Yi said the three countries had agreed to firmly uphold
multilateralism and the international system with the UN as the core, as well
as the basic norms of international relations, including the principle of
non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries.
So
it is not surprising to see Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lu Kang
saying: “We are indeed worried about the current tension between Pakistan and
India.” Wang Yi has repeatedly expressed China’s concerns in his talks with his
counterparts in India and Pakistan. The spokesperson said: “We urge both
Pakistan and India to exercise the utmost restraint and conduct dialogue as
soon as possible. Control the situation and jointly safeguard peace and
stability.”
According
to Reuters,
the US, UK and France have proposed that the UN Security Council blacklist
Masood Azhar, the head of JeM. They asked the 15-member UN Security Council
sanctions committee to subject him to an arms embargo, global travel ban and
assets freeze. However, the proposal will only be finalised on March 13 after
consensus. China as the lone supporter of Pakistan had delayed the action in
the committee on “technical grounds”.
Last, but not least, is Pakistan’s
precarious economic situation which makes going to war the least favourable
option. Pakistan is beholden to China and Saudi Arabia for financial support to
tide through the crisis as its foreign reserves are in single-digit.
Hemmed
in by these constraints, Imran took everyone by surprise when he announced in
parliament on February 28 that “in our desire for peace” and as a first step to
open negotiations, Pakistan would be releasing the IAF officer. He added that
Pakistan’s efforts for de-escalation should not be construed as “weakness”.
Imran’s
move to release the prisoner has clearly put the ball in Modi’s court. Though
the Indian PM has said that India will pursue its objective to eradicate the
terrorist threat, on the eve of elections, public opinion could be divided over
continuing with operations across the LoC, particularly after Imran’s goodwill
gesture. This was evident from the welcome his announcement received from many
leaders in India and abroad.
Punjab
Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh said: “I’m very happy, I had demanded
his (the pilot’s) release earlier too. This is going to be a step towards
goodwill and I hope this will be lasting.” Former J&K Chief Minister
Mehbooba Mufti, too, complimented Imran, saying he had “exhibited real
statesmanship today”. She hoped that “our leadership will reciprocate and try
to de-escalate the situation”. She also hoped that Imran would act upon the
evidence provided to Pakistan “so that tension between the two countries ends”.
Apparently, Imran has used his
bowling skills to bowl a googly to use the confrontation from the core issue of
bleeding India using terrorists. In this mind-game, Imran has the advantage of
not having the Damocles’ sword of elections hanging over him like Modi.
Moreover, Imran has Gen Bajwa behind him in decision-making as he himself has
acknowledged.
Imran’s
dramatic and “generous” gesture in releasing the pilot and inviting Modi
for talks meets the immediate needs of international powers. Some of them,
friendly to both countries, would appreciate such a gesture as it saves them
from an embarrassing situation. We can expect China to persuade India to
reciprocate Pakistan’s gesture by de-escalating the military situation.
But
Imran would probably not bargain for Modi digging his heels in and fighting for
his beliefs. So to lend credibility, it’s not only India, but Imran too who has
to de-escalate the situation by taking substantive action by dismantling
terrorist camps and deny the fidayeen the freedom to operate against India from
Pakistan’s soil. Can he do it? Will the army allow it? Only time can
tell.
Modi
faces a more complex task as he has to balance his strategic response to take
it to the logical conclusion and at the same time, gain the approval of his
people so that they will vote him back to power. We can expect him to continue
with his holistic narrative internally in J&K and continue the pressure
game on Pakistan. But it could be muted to accommodate international partners.
India
must factor in all these questions before responding to Pakistan.
—The writer is a military
intelligence specialist on South Asia, associated with the Chennai Centre for
China Studies and the International Law and Strategic Studies Institute
India-Pakistan relations entered potential conflict zone following the rapid
developments after a dozen IAF
Mirage2000 aircraft carried out a carefully crafted mission to destroy the
largest Jaish e Mohammed (JeM) training centre in Balakot in Khyber
Pakhtunkwa province in Pakistan, apart from camps in Muzaffarabad and Chakothi
in POK on February 26. India’s muscular response was to avenge JeM’s suicide
car bomb attack on a CRPF convoy in Pulwama in J&K, killing 40 jawans 12
days earlier.
Though India’s response came 12 days
after Pulwama attack, it was well planned to cover political, diplomatic and
military aspects. This was evident in the way the air force had planned
meticulously planned to ensure total surprise. IAF Mirage2000 strike was
supported by airborne early warning and control aircraft (AEW&C) radar
systems designed to detect and track aircraft, missiles and ships and air defence
cover by Sukhoi 30MkI aircraft, while Heron drone conducted realtime
surveillance of the LOC. In order to achieve total surprise Mirage fighters
were inducted directly into operation from Gwalior base with Ilyushin 78 aircraft providing mid air fuelling
facility. It was a demonstration of IAF’s capability to operate a complex air
operation in the modern C3S and I command and control system in place. Both
Pakistan and China would have taken note of IAF’s demonstrated capability to
factor it in their strategic matrix.
India made it clear that the
operation was not against Pakistan military or people. Foreign Secretary Vijay
Gokhale in an official statement called the operation “an intelligence led
operation” carried out in the early hours of the day. He said “India struck the
biggest training camp of JeM in Balakot. In this operation, a very large number
of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and groups of Jihadis who were
being trained for fedayeen action were eliminated.” He also mentioned that the
Balakot facility was headed by Maulana Yousuf Azhar (aliasUstad Ghouri).
He added that Pakistan had taken no
concrete actions to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism, though India had
been repeatedly urging Pakistan to take action against the JeM to prevent
training and arming of terrorists. Justifying the action, he said “credible
intelligence was received that JeM was attempting another suicide terror attack
in various parts of the country. Describing the action as a “non-military
preemptive action,” he said it was
specifically targeted at the JeM camp. He emphasized “the selection of target
was also conditioned by our desire to avoid civilian casualties. The facility
is located in thick forest on a hilltop far away from any civilian presence.”
Pakistan was on a tizzy after the
Indian air strike. It closed the air space for civilian air traffic. Provincial
governments were put on security alert. According to IAF spokesman, in the next
two days Pakistan air craft had violated Indian air space in J&K 32
times. Pakistan’s retaliatory strike
came a day after Balakot attack, when three PAF fighters, out of a formation of
ten PAF war planes including F16s, JF 17s and Mirage 5s, crossed the LOC and
intruded seven km into Indian airspace in Nowshera area to strike at three
Indian military targets.
According to media reports Pak
targets included a brigade headquarters in Krishnaghati (Poonch), a battalion headquarters (near Nangi Tehri)
and a supply dump and ammunition point in Nyari. However, two MiG-21
interceptors scrambled to drive away the Pak aircraft, which dumped their bombs
in open ground.
In the dogfight that followed a MiG
21 (Bison) of 80s vintage piloted by Wing Commander Abinandan fired a missile
to bring down the F16 plane in classical World War II style. It is learnt
thatt the MiG21 was hit by a splinter
from the F16 after it was hit and not by air defence fire as reported in the
media. Wing Commander Abhinandan parachuted to safety in POK and taken
prisoner. It is a tribute to the Indian officer’s skill that he came out on top
using an obsolete fighter in combat with F!6 of a far superior class. At the
same time, it is also an example of the human cost the services have continued
to pay for decades of indifference of successive governments to equip the armed
forces with modern weaponry though security environment has become more dynamic
and networked.
PM Imran Khan
initially put up a brave face when he addressed the joint session of parliament
on Thursday when it met to discuss the increasing tension after the Pulwama
attack and subsequent air strikes by both sides. He said that despite his
multiple overtures for peace, the response from New Delhi had not been
encouraging. He said “we realized that it was because of upcoming elections in
India.” So the government decided to wait until the polls in India were over
before making another offer for talks. However, he “feared they would do
something”.
He said he had a
meeting with the Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa after the Indian air
craft violated Pakistan air space. At this meeting it was decided that Pakistan
will not respond straightaway. “We realized that Pakistani people might get
upset that we did not respond, but we
decided that since we did not know if there were any casualties, in case of an
immediate response there will be escalation.”
The PM’s
explanation that the “only purpose of our strike was to demonstrate our
capability and will. We did not want to inflict any casualty on India as we
wanted to act in a responsible manner” is not believable as it is doubtful
whether any country would use its valuable air assets mere to demonstrate its
capability, particularly in operationally critical situation.
Capture of the air force pilot skewed India’s
priorities for a while as the Indian air strike against JeM centre in Balakot
and in POK was carried out to fulfil PM Narendra Modi’s promise to avenge
Pulwama killings and put a stop to JeM terrorist activity in J&K. This had
been India’s long standing demand to Pakistan to put a stop to terrorists
operating from its soil against India have been ignored. However after Pulwama
attack, Pak PM Imran Khan had promised to take action if India produced
evidence for the alleged involvement of Pak based JeM terrorists. Usually, this
had been Pakisan’s standard ploy of Pakistan to delay action on Indian complaints;
after 26/11 Mumbai this exercise was gone through in all sincerity India
produced dossiers of evidence.
However, after carrying out the air
strike on Balakot, India produced the dossier on the evidence it had collected
to Pakistan. Earlier, India had also given the dossier to the US, China and
other powers. was earlier given to a of Modi’s action was in tune with the
public opinion in India, which applauded the IAF’s successful strike. But a day
later, public opinion rallied to demand the release of Indian pilot turning it
into the first priority.
The capture of Indian pilot gave a
breather to Pakistan PM Imran Khan as tremendous international pressure was
building up on Pakistan to take action to curb JeM terrorist activities. The US stand was unambiguously in favour of
India, with the US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo describing India air
strike as “counter terrorism actions.” After speaking to the foreign ministers
of India and Pakistan after the Indian air strike, he said he “expressed to
both ministers we encourage India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, and avoid
escalation at any cost.” Almost all UNSC members appealed to both countries to
exercise restraint and no country condemned Indian air strike carried out inside Pakistan.
Hussain Haqqani, former Pakistan ambassador to Washington and
currently with Hudson Institute, aptly
summed up the situation in his tweet: International community including China
have advised both sides to ‘exercise
restraint.’ So far, no country has supported Pakistan against ‘violation of
sovereignty’ or ‘Indian aggression.’
Well known scholar Christian Fair was more forthright; she tweeted:
Pakistan attacks India incessantly using terror proxies which the army, ISI and
navy arm, resource, train, and launch on missions they design all over India
outside Kashmir. So Pakistanis should literally shut up and take it as the
punishment their state deserves.
Pakistan must have been
disappointed with China cautiously wording its comments after the situation worsened
between India and Pakistan ever since Pulwama attack was carried out. China
will be caught in an anomalous situation if
Indo-Pak confrontation broke out into a full-fledged war. Though China
and Pakistan enjoy multifaceted relationship and have a strategic security
agreement, China’s relations with India are also growing on a different plane.
China enjoys a trade surplus of over $73 billion with India; India had been
clocking over 7 per cent growth on an average for the last five years and presents
a huge, attractive market for Chinese goods. Moreover the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC), the infrastructure development project in which China
is investing over $40 billion passes through POK area and any military
confrontation in the region would affect the progress of the project.
India has become an essential
partner in China-sponsored multilateral forums like the BRICS and Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation. China is also
strengthening the trilateral cooperation with India and Russia. Only last
month, foreign ministers of China, Russia, India met in Wuzhen, Zhejiang
province and agreed to strengthen trilateral coordination and cooperation to
bring more stability and positive energy to the volatile international
landscape. State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the three
countries had agreed to firmly uphold multilateralism and the international
system with the UN as the core, as well as the basic norms of international
relations including the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs
of other countries. Significantly, Wang added that in terms of regional and
international hot issues, the three countries agreed that inclusive dialogue
should be the approach to resolving problems.
So it is not surprising to see
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang saying “We are indeed worried
about the current tension between Pakistan and India. China’s foreign minister
Wang Yi has repeatedly expressed China’s concerns in his talks with the Indian
foreign minister and Pakisani foreign minister. The spokesperson said “we urge
both Pakistan and India to exercise the utmost restraint and conduct dialogue
as soon as possible. Control the situation and jointly safeguard peace and
stability.” He added that China had been maintaining close communication with
Pakistan and Inda on current state of affairs and has been involved in
consultations while promoting talks. “China was willing to continue to play a
constructive role in this regared” he added.
At the same time, he said that State Councillor Wang Yi clearly
emphasized that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries
should be earnestly respected.
UN
pressure
According to the Reuters which
accessed the United States, Britain and France proposal that the UN Security Council
blacklist the head of outlawed group
JeM, which claimed the attack on CRPF convoy in Pulwama. They asked the
15-member UN Security Council sanctions committee to subject Masood Azhar to an
arms embargo, global travel ban and asset freeze. However, as the proposal will
only be finalised on March 13 as the UNSC committee operates on consensus and
the members have time to raise objections till then. China as the lone
on supporter of Pakistan had delayed the action in the committee on “technical
grounds.”
Last, but not least, is Pakistan’s
precarious economic situation, which makes going to war the least favourable
option. And Pakistan is beholden to China and Saudi Arabia for financial
support to tide through the crisis as its foreign reserves are in single digit.
Hemmed in by these constraints, PM
Imran Khan took everyone by surprise when he announced in the joint session of
parliament on February 28 that “in our desire for peace” and as a first step to
open negotiations, Pakistan will be releasing the Indian Air Force officer in
our custody.” He added that Pakistan’s efforts for de-escalation should not be
construed as a “weakness.”
What next?
PM Imran Khan’s move to release
the prisoner has clearly put the ball in
Modi’s court. Though he has spoken that India would pursue its objective to
eradicate terrorist threat, on the eve of elections public opinion could be
divided over continuing with Indian operations across the LOC, particularly
after Imran Khan’s good will gesture. This was evident from the welcome the Pak
PM’s announcement has received in India.
Indian His announcement has been welcomed by many leaders in India and
abroad.
Punjab Chief Minister Captain
Amarinder Singh said: "I'm very happy, I had demanded his release earlier
too. This is going to be a step towards goodwill and I hope this will be
lasting." Former J&K chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, too, complimented
the prime minister, saying he has "exhibited real statesmanship
today". She hoped “our leadership will reciprocate and try to deescalate
the situation. She also hoped that PM Khan would act upon the evidence provided
to Pakistan “so that tension between the two countries end.”
That is the key dilemma for India.
Will Pakistan okeep up its promise to take action against Masood Azhar and JeM?
That is the million dollar question. Does PM Imran Khan has the ability to
influence the Deep State to dismantle its strategic assets that bleed India?
India will have to factor these questions in responding to Pakistan.
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