The
horrendous Pulwama killing has caught India napping and shows the need to
evolve a holistic strategy to combat Pakistan’s Deep State which is using
terrorism to bleed India through a thousand cuts
Col R Hariharan | Perspective | India Legal | February 23,
2019 |
The suicide attack by Adil Ahmed Dar, a 20-year-old Kashmiri
cadre of the Jaish-e-Mohammed
(JeM)on a CRPF convoy in Pulwama on February 14, killing over 40
CRPF jawans, is a watershed moment in our long history of fighting militancy in
J&K. The never-before-seen outburst of anger and outrage across the country
at this attack showed that public patience is wearing thin at the insouciant
way successive governments have been handling the Kashmir issue.
Immediately after the attack, an elated JeM claimed
responsibility for it. Public reaction to it ranged from a flood of hate
messages in social media against Pakistan and Kashmiri terrorists to
non-partisan protest rallies to Bollywood slapping a ban on the participation
of Pakistani film artistes in films. A Pakistani prisoner with suspected links
to the Lashkar-e-Taiba, another Pakistan-based terrorist group, serving a life
term in Jaipur jail, was killed by other inmates, ostensibly in a quarrel with
them. The sense of outrage was reflected in the body language of Prime Minister
Narendra Modi after the Pulwama attack. The usually taciturn Modi repeatedly
emphasised that the sacrifice of the jawans would not go in vain and warned
Pakistan it would pay a heavy price for the killings.
Buoyed by the huge success of the
Pulwama attack, the JeM is likely to keep up the momentum by carrying out more
terror strikes. In follow-up operations in Pulwama after the attack, four
security forces personnel, including an army major, were killed and a few
others, including a DIG and a brigadier, were injured, sending a clear signal
that, far from being a lone wolf attack, Pulwama was a well-planned one.
Security forces, meanwhile, eliminated three JeM terrorists, including the
suspected mastermind of the Pulwama attack and IED expert Abdul Rashid Gazi.
INDIA’S OPTIONS
Strategic analysts have been
discussing a number of military options available to India. These ranged from
carrying out air strikes on the JeM headquarters in Bahawalpur in Sindh to
missile attacks on terrorist camps across the Line of Control (LoC) in PoK to
carrying out covert operations to eliminate Masood Azhar, the founder-patron of
JeM who is living in Pakistan. While carrying out any of these military options
would satisfy the widespread demand for revenge, it would not persuade Pakistan
to dismantle its proxy war apparatus.
In
the wake of the Pulwama attack, India has taken a series of
measures on the diplomatic, trade and financial fronts. It has requested the
international community to take concrete diplomatic steps such as issuing
statements condemning Pakistan, supporting India’s efforts to blacklist it by
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and designating Azhar a global terrorist
by the UN. Though over 50 countries have condemned the Pulwama attack, only the
US seems to have named the JeM as the Pakistan-based terrorist group involved
in the attack.
India has withdrawn the Most
Favoured Nation status given to Pakistan in 1996, although it is unlikely to
have much impact as the total trade between the two neighbours was only $2.4
billion in 2017-18, just 0.31 percent of India’s total trade.
Coming
to FATF, it is a policymaking body to promote effective implementation of
legal, regulatory and operational measures for combating money laundering,
terrorist financing and other related threats to the integrity of the
international financial system. Pakistan was placed in the grey list of
monitored jurisdiction of FATF in 2018. India proposes to present a dossier on
its support to the JeM to persuade FATF to place it in the high-risk and
non-cooperative category. Though China had not objected to placing Pakistan in
the grey list, it is likely to obstruct any move by India to blacklist it.
However, India’s move is likely to highlight Pakistan’s complicity in the terrorist attack
in Pulwama among the 38 countries in FATF.
RESPONSE
TO TERRORISM
The Pulwama attack is significant,
not only because it has the dubious distinction of topping the number of
security forces personnel killed in a single terrorist attack in J&K during
the last decade, but it indicates the scaling up of the JeM’s terrorist
technique when it used a car bomb in the Pulwama attack.
According
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the last vehicle-borne suicide
attack in the state was carried out on November 2, 2005, near the residence of
then chief minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, killing three policemen and six
civilians. In another attack on a CRPF camp in Avantipora a little over a year
ago, JeM terrorists had used steel-jacketed ammunition that penetrated body
armour for the first time.
Two days before the February 14
attack, there was intelligence input about the JeM preparing for a car bomb
attack against security convoys on the Jammu-Srinagar road. However, it did not
specify when and where it would take place. According to K Vijaya Kumar, the
governor’s security adviser, sanitising the road was “impossible” as there were
70 intersections, 35 on each side. CRPF authorities did not seem to have
factored in the risks of sending an unwieldy 70-vehicle-long convoy on this
road without sufficient security.
The
explosives-laden vehicle was reported to have followed the convoy, despite
warning from the convoy’s security detail. That the vehicle ultimately managed
to ram a bus carrying CRPF troops to complete its mission indicates the lack of
alertness of the escort vehicles which should have been prompt in responding to
a potential threat situation.
Usually,
when military convoys move in militancy-prone areas, civilian traffic is
stopped. However, in J&K, this standard security procedure was discontinued
as the state government wanted to avoid inconvenience to civilian vehicles on
this lifeline. Only now, after paying a compromise cost of over 40 lives, have
the authorities reimposed the restriction on civilian traffic when convoys of
security forces move.
Though
initial reports said 350 kg of explosives were used in the blast, probably it
was much less. Investigators who found a jerrycan which was probably used for
the blast said that it could not have held more than 30 kg of military grade
RDX. It was probably smuggled across the border over a period of time and
stashed in safe houses. This would indicate that the JeM’s supply conduits from
across the border and within the state are still intact in spite of sustained
security force operations to cut them off.
The increased involvement of local
youth in terrorist attacks shows the ability and resilience of the JeM to
recruit, train and motivate them to undertake suicide missions despite 2018
proving to be the bloodiest year for militancy in J&K.
MILITANTS ON THE BACKFOOT
SATP’s
assessment also showed progressive increase in the spread of terrorist activity
in J&K. This was gleaned from fatalities reported from districts. In 2018,
fatalities were reported from 16 of 22 districts in the state as against 13
districts in 2014. The SATP assessment says: “Significantly, by end 2011, at
least seven districts in the state had been declared completely free of
militancy…,” while the state home ministry had reported militancy related
incidents “in single digits”.
An objective introspection of the
reasons for the increase in Pakistan-inspired terrorist activity in the state
would attribute it to the BJP-PDP alliance’s politics of expediency and
opportunism to stay in power. During the ill-conceived coalition rule, the “war
on terrorism” became a bundle of contradictions; security forces taking
measures to safeguard men and material were slapped with FIRs, while
stone-throwing mobs guided by Pakistan-inspired terrorists were allowed to go
scot-free.
Flying
of Pakistani and Islamic State flags on top of mosques and city centres were
dismissed as acts of misguided youth. Terrorist leaders killed in clashes were
glorified by politicians, including those in power.
It
sent a strong signal that the state government was not serious about ensuring
security in the face of growing terrorist activity.
LOSS OF CREDIBILITY
Undoubtedly,
this eroded the Modi government’s credibility in tackling terrorism in the
Kashmir Valley, despite the much-publicised surgical strike carried out across
the LoC. It is sad that in spite of the huge sacrifices made by our security
forces and loss of lives and resources, our Kashmir narrative continues to be a
work in progress regardless of who is occupying the hot seat in New Delhi. The
Pulwama attack is only a reiteration of the fact that Kashmir continues to be
India’s Achilles’ heel in statecraft.
There
is no doubt that the Pakistan Army is waging a hybrid war to avenge its rout in
the 1971 war against India and terrorism in Kashmir is part of it. Peter Chalk
and Christine Fair have quoted Hamid Gul, the former director-general of the
ISI, in their December 2002 article, “Lashkar e Tayyiba leads the Kashmir
insurgency” in Jane’s Defence Review, as saying:
“We
have gained a lot because of our offensive in Kashmir. This is a psychological
and political offensive that is designed to make India bleed through a thousand
cuts.”
Pakistan
Prime Minister Imran Khan has the blessing of the Pakistan Army, which gives it
enormous clout in shaping the country’s India policy more than ever before. So
it is doubtful whether international pressure could influence Pakistan to give
up its strategic option to use the Kashmir insurgency to bleed India.
So we need to clean up our own act
and evolve a holistic strategy beyond the vague and sketchy Kashmir narrative
that swings between cosmetic solutions based on political opportunism and
expediency and a combat narrative in fits and starts. Unfortunately, the
political narrative goes into periodic hibernation, while the combat narrative
is largely reactive to the Pakistan Deep State’s actions using terrorism to
further its strategy to bleed India.
DISOWNING RESPONSIBILITY
Kashmir
politicians have never been serious about doing their bit politically to
counter terrorist propaganda. They have always disowned responsibility for the
situation in the state.
Typical
was the reaction of National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah to the Pulwama
attack. He said the common people have no role in the attack. “Such attacks
will continue and will not come down till the Kashmir issue is resolved
politically. Please don’t beat us. We have no role in it (attack) and we are
not with it (terrorism). We want to live with dignity, study and earn our two
meals and do not wish to build castles.”
National
political consensus is essential for evolving a holistic Kashmir strategy. In a
welcome move after the Pulwama attack, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh called
for an all-party meeting to discuss the follow-up action.
Political
parties of almost all hues, including the irrepressible Congress president,
Rahul Gandhi, curbed their temptation to score brownie points against the Modi
government and attended the meeting. They expressed solidarity with security
forces fighting terrorism in Kashmir. It showed the potential to build a
national consensus on Kashmir.
However,
five days after the meeting, the Congress and the BJP seemed to be back in
business and doing what they do best—name-calling, using the Pulwama tragedy.
And as the country nears a general election, the Kashmir issue and the Pulwama
attack will be buried under other bread and butter issues in pre-electoral
oration by politicians.
In
the meanwhile, rather than waiting for the mythical national consensus on
Kashmir to emerge, a few urgent measures need to be taken.
First,
create a counter narrative using social media to confront Kashmiri terrorists
who are carrying out propaganda to attract and motivate youth to join them.
Secondly,
take instant action against politicians and other people who glorify
terrorists. The withdrawal of security for 18 Hurriyat leaders and 150 other
politicians is a step in the right direction.
Lastly,
allow the security forces to do their job without taking populist actions
that block their work.
India
should get ready for the long haul now.
—The
writer is a military intelligence specialist on South Asia, associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law and Strategic
Studies Institute
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