Media representatives raised a few issues to elicit my assessment of some of the current developments in Sri Lanka. My comments given below are based upon analyses of open source information on operational, political and internal developments, examined in the backdrop of past behaviour of stakeholders.
What will be the strategy for intensifying war options in the No Fire Zone?
Problem of fighting in a narrow corridor with a huge civilian population in battle zone is three fold: separate civilians from LTTE to avoid civilian casualties, break through obstacles and at the same time prevent save own troops from getting channelised into killing areas obstacles, and take on the LTTE piecemeal.
Topographically the narrow land boundaries compound the problem for the troops on the offensive. So offensive troops will have to laterally divide the sector and creep forward if heavy weapons are not to be used as promised. Tactics likely to be used are -
• Separate LTTE combatants from civilians using spotters – presumably from captured cadres who can identify them,
• use aerial surveillance with helicopter gun ships to take on fleeing cadres, destroy boats moving in the inshore sea, destroy dumps of ammo, gasoline, etc. Use SBS, RABS to take on fleeing boats in sea.
• Work in small in decentralised sub units - troops, squads, sections etc. Depend upon close quarter weapons for combat. Form hunter killer teams with special forces, armoured cars and infantry
• If the lagoon conditions permit, launch multi-pronged entries across obstacles laterally from the lagoon side and from inshore area to split and divide the population concentrations in the midst of whom LTTE has taken up positions.
The propaganda war between Sri Lanka and LTTE
For Sri Lanka the key strategy is to counter LTTE propaganda on trapped civilians and soften impact of bad press. Some of the useful techniques could be -
• Allow selected media reps to frontline, handover some of the IDP camps to Red Cross and some INGOs for administration,
• Tone down abusive rhetoric about UN, UK and the world at large.
• Play down adverse reaction in Tamil Nadu as it is likely to be scaled down after voting on May 12.
The post-conflict scenario of Tamil leadership and aspirations.
Some the actions likely to take place in the post conflict scene in the North Emerging scene is likely to give rise to -
• President Rajapaka likely to try and prevent Tamil polity from getting united by attracting some of the leaders to SLFP alliance either directly or through floating new political party of Tamils. Karuna and Pillaiyan will be the main tools.
• UNP will also try and fish to net some Tamil leaders and build them up.
• Minister Douglas Devananda is likely to emerge politically at the most advantageous position in the North to strengthen his influence in the North including Jaffna. This could result in further weeding out of pro-0LTTE elements making it difficult for them to stage a comeback. Aid flow is likely to favour the Minister’s preferred projects.
• As Army would not like the remnants of the LTTE to resurface and create fresh problems, its garrisons in North are likely to be increased in numbers. This move is likely to aggravate the problems created by increase in high security zones.
• Displaced Muslim IDPs from Jaffna could be sent back to the North.
• Indian political support for Sri Lanka Tamils could rise provided the support of Tamil Nadu politicians to the survival of the new coalition taking over in New Delhi. However, there could be no major Indian initiative on Sri Lanka from New Delhi for some months to come as the coalition government has to firm in.
• International and Indian development aid to Sri Lanka is likely to be indirectly and directly tied to level of devolution taking place on the ground.
2 comments:
Be real.Cant SINHALESE learn from INDIA how to live in a multi lingual society? Is it so imposible to lift their head and look at INDIA which is just 18 Km away?Cant they read newspapers about how NHERU & CO handled the language problem and reorganised INDIA on language lines?Cant they take a plane trip land in delhi and see for themselves How INDAIN languages and regional cultures are flourishing?How every state imparts school education in local languages?How higher education is done in ENGLISH? HOW because of ENGLISH we have become a software super power?How even though 70% INDIANS dont understand their PM speaking in parliament they vote in right governments that guard the cultural plurality of INDIA?
The answer is they know it perfectly well. BUT THEY HAVE NO INTENTION OF DOING IT. WHY? They IDEALIZE the PAKISTANIS who imposed URDU on BANGLADESHIS and commited genocoide when they resisted it.There is practicaly no difference between them and PAKISTAN. THEY both are racists.They wish the destruction of INDIAN multi cultural nation.They were seeking support from US in the past and CHINA at present giving harbour facilities to CHINA
Sri Lankan Tamils are paying the price for the tamilian vote to UPA in the last election.The Hindus of Srilanka are being killed by Budhist sinhalese race with the help of Christian Sonia.Had the BJP was in power would they let it happen?Many half baked foolish north indians writing in these comments dont realize that more than 1000 Indian Tamil Fisher men have been killed by the SLA Navy as one of the largest Navies in the world Indian Navy stood watching by.Even pakistan only arrests Erring indiaan fishermen straying into the their waters.INDIAN CHANNELS has never ran a story on that
. Srilankans helped PAKISTANI AIRFORCE planes to refuel and fly to bangladesh against the warnings of indira's government during 1972 indian war with pakistan. Guess who whre on these planes? PAKISTANI MILITARY PERSONNEL in civilian clothes.Once they landed in DHAKA they changed their clothes and killed indian soldiers and commited genocoide of lakhs of Bengalis in BANGLADESH.
Srilanka always supported American proposal for nuclear free zone in south asia nuch to india's chargin.They never supported INDIAN stand on kashmir.Now they are openly filrting with CHINA.Why your channel never goes back in history to dig the truth?
Now they are giving the HAMBANTOTA deep sea port to CHINA. for what? to refuel the chinese navy ships like GWADER port in PAKISTAN.PAKISTANIs supplied emergency military aid to srilanka during the height of KARGIL war. Now a genocoidal leader like RAJAPAKSE is glorified as a soverign head of state.
RAJIV GANDHI was misled into SRILANKA by a coterie that includes ROMESH BANDARI and others.The whole INDO-SRILANKAN accord is a trap,because it doesnit mentions any specific rights to Tamils.PRABHAKARAN was coerced into the agreement by virtualy jailing him inside DELHI's HOTEL ASHOKA.
NO senior tamil politician was consulted.The then foreign seceretary VENKATESWARAN saw through the SINHALA plot and adviced against it. Guess what? He was dismissed.Such was the influence of the coterie around the inexperienced RAJIV that he dismissed a seasoned diplomat thinking that SRILANKA was desiring genuine freindship with INDIA.
Once IPKF went there they showed their true colours. They did every thing to sabotage the fake accord.Theyploted to turn INDIA against LTTE.14 senior leaders of LTTE were arrested by Sri Lankan Army in peace time and deported to COLOMBO in gross violation of the accord and they all commited suicide.Did the INDIAN government raise any voice? no. why? because the entire INDO,-SRILANKAN accord was a Clever bait by sinhalese.
They feigned to lease TRICONAMALEE port to US allow VOA staion there.When INDIA confronted them they baited INDIA by saying OK we wont do that, But we will send you some papers regarding a few proposal to TAMILS , We will sign a peace accord throwing some false promises to Sri LANKAN TAMILS.And SRILANKA will fall into indian camp. INDIA fell for this bait. The late JEYAWARDHANE has openly talked about it later in his life.MORONS like SONIA who cant even can hold a proper press conference, who cant even complete a degree in LONDIN during 3 years stay will never comprehend the treacherous minds of SINHALA FOXES.
When LTTE protested to IPKF they couldnt do anything about it.LTTE too is guilty in opposing indians. But what will they say to their cadres when 14 senior commanders were killed right under the nose of IPKF. They remained silent only.Waves of protestsa in srilanka followed .DHILEEPAN took a fast unto death in jaffana.After many months the IPKF installed its puppet PADHMANABHA as chief minister of the NORTH EAST state in a bogus election.And LTTE took on the IPKF only after that.
THE TAMIL-SINHALA divide is an old running sore.Tamils of srilanka went to there 1000 years before.The sinhalese are also migrants form kerala,bengal and bihar areas of india.just a hundred years before them.The Sinhala lies that they are the true sons of soil is white lie.Sri LANKA is just 18 Km away from Tamil Nadu.And the waters are shallow.There is an evidence of abridge type natural formation from NASA photos. Wont Tamils cross this just 18 Km in 2000 years?
Right from the day British left the ISLAND the sinhalese are denying education in TAMIL for TAMILS and government jobs.They have a racist envy about educationaly forward TAMILIANS.They are denying all rights to them.MILLIONS of TAMILS live in foreign countries as a refugees. OUR country is also fighting many insurgencies.Is it using 120 mm guns,helicopter gunships,and airforce bombesrs on them? They are only used against foreign enemies.Thats how sinhalese regard Tamils.They know very well that their obsolete artillery and bombers will kill 100 more civilians for every LTTE killed.They relish the thougt.SO be it. Their true intention is commiting genocoide
the tamils like ABDUL KALLAM is makin missiles. Tamil Scientist CHIDAMBARM was the head of the atomic bomb division.The BRAHMOS missile chief is SIVADHANU PILLAI a TAMIL. The CHANDRIYAN project head MAYILSAMY ANNADURAI is a TAMIL also.hundreds of TAMILIANS have laid down their life for defence of INDIA in kashmir, KARGIL, even in AFGANISTAN. YET the INDIAN government under RAJIV GANDHI fell for the SINHALESE bait.Ignoring the wellfare of TAMIL RACE in SRILANKA.He didnt consult a single TAMILIA POLITICIAN on the accord.This is what happens when inexperienced charismatic leaders get into power.A security relationship was thrown as a bait by SRLANKANS and that was it.
Every NORTH INDIAN would have watched on the TV how a sinhalese soldier tried to kill RAJIV in SRILANKA.He is living free in SRILANKA today.SRILANKAN government has covered it up as an act of an individual.During IPKF time 1000 indians and 10000 Tamilians were killed. WHo was responsible for this?
The INDIAN TAMILS were completelt against the treacherous killing of RAJIV GANDHI. They annoited congress government of NARASHIMA RAO and MANMOHAN SINGH.
But still SONIA GANDHI's help for the genocoidal srilankans illustrate that the LTTE's fears on RAJIV was justified.LTTE feared that RAJIV will once again be fooled by LANKANS and they will be finished if he comes to power again.If you are in PRABHA KARAN's shoes what will you do?
after that they never destabilised INDIA.During NARASHIMA RAO,VAJPAYEE,MANMOHAN regimes,How many INDIANS were killed by LTTE? Come SONIA GANDHI the SINHALESE are only gloating.Did they try to assasinate SONIA in the past 15 years? Every one knows they will die for a cause once they aim for it.They have the capability to do anything.But they didnt try.Now in gross violation of all constitutional norms She is helping the sinhalese to kill 20000 TAMILS.Is the death of 20000 TAMILS not enough of a punishment? SHE still wants more.Enacting a careful drama of forgiving NALINI ,an accomplice in RAJIV assasination, SHE is secretely assisting the SINHALESE in this genocoide of TAMILS.The US,BRITISH,CANADIAN,NORWEGIAN governments were urging Sinhalese to stop the genocoide.but INDIA is keeping quiet.WHY?
Lion Vs Tiger = Lion
No wonder.
Now silently watch the death of your leader.
We pray, let it happen on 21st MAy.
Keep painting on water for Tamil Elam.
Jai Hind !
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