Myanmar’s
recent decision to suspend the construction of the Chinese-aided Irrawaddy
Myitsone hydroelectric dam project in Kachin State comes as a pleasant
surprise, whatever be the reasons behind the Myanmar decision.
However,
the moot point is, whether the three-decade old relationship carefully nurtured
by both sides is entering a new tricky phase?
China’s
immediate reaction to the announcement by the Myanmar President Thein Sein was
tinged with irritability in the midst of polite bureaucratic wordings.
It would indicate China was not probably consulted before Myanmar President
went public with the decision. This is clearly a case of proverbial
Chinese loss of face.
However,
the very title of the opinion piece - “Dam project stumbled over PR failures” -
in the semi-official Global Times by Zha Diajiong, is probably indicative of
the official line that would be adopted to come to terms with the situation.
Zha lamented: “It shows us once again that Chinese enterprises need to improve
their skill at managing international political risks when running
infrastructure projects in neighboring countries. Work on the dam began five
years ago. How could the project be set up at that time if it didn’t meet the
basic principle of mutual benefit?”
Is
it only the PR failure of the state-owned China Power Investment (CPI)
Corporation, which is jointly financing the $ 3.6 billion project with Burmese
partners, responsible for this embarrassing situation? After all the Myanmar Ministry
of Electric Power No.1 and Asia World - Myanmar-owned conglomerate - are also
involved in financing the project. It is difficult to digest the situation
could have been saved with better PR. There are much bigger issues involved.
First
is the strong adverse reaction from within Myanmar to the project. The Myitsone
dam is the largest of the six dams proposed under the Confluence Region
Hydropower Project (CRC) to exploit the hydroelectric potential of Mayhka,
Malihkha and Irrawaddy rivers. Chinese have been closely involved with the
Burmese since 2005 in the conception, design, and planning of the CRC. Around
12,000 Chinese workers are at present involved in the construction work on the
4100 Megawatt Myitsone hydroelectric project going on below the confluence of
Mayhka and Malihka tributaries since last year.
Opposition
to the CRC had been brewing for sometime among environmentalists and
conservationists. It gained momentum when Myitsone project was taken up as it
was expected to inundate 766 sq km of rain forest area including 42 villages,
displacing 10,000 ethnic Kachins. This has caused concern not only among
Kachins, but also among environmentalists and conservationists.
Environmentalists argue the impounding of the river would change the hydrological
profile of the river and restrict the flow of sediments that enrich the rice
growing Irrawaddy delta regions. Conservationists say flooding of large swath
of sensitive rain forest region could irreversibly change the ecological
profile. Even within the government some concerns have been expressed about the
environmental impact of the dam. However, the government had insisted the
project was undertaken only after studying all aspects. However,
political opposition, and journalists continued to voice their opposition.
President
Thein Sein had taken a conciliatory line to establish the democratic
credentials of the ‘civilian government,’ which has a military pedigree, ever
since he became President in March. He had been trying to bring back the
opposition into political mainstream, particularly the Aung San Suu Kyi-led
National League for Democracy (NLD). Although officially it has ceased to be
political party, government representative Aung Kyi has met with Suu Kyi three
times to discuss the terms for NLD to stage a comeback as a recognized
political party. That would mean NLD’s acceptance of the 2008 Constitution
legitimizing the role for army in government. NLD’s return is important for
Thein Sein (and the military junta manipulating the government) as NLD -
its most fierce opponent - would cease to be a political loose cannon. This
would increase the chances of ending the international sanction regime and help
the regime spruce up its international and internal standing.
The
cancellation of the Myitsone project had offered an invaluable opportunity to
President Thein to show how people sensitive the government is. The wording of
his letter to Parliament on September 30 indicates this. He said, “Our
government, being elected by the people, has to take great consideration of
public opinion. Accordingly, we have an obligation to respond to the public
concern with seriousness. Therefore, we will suspend the Myitsone project
during the term of our government.” It is difficult to believe this ‘people
sensitivity’ from a government that still keeps over 2000 people as political
prisoners.
Kachin
organisations have been petitioning both the Chinese and Myanmar governments
for cancelling the project. They fear it would bring in the military and whole
lot of bureaucracy into their ethnic homeland. Kachin leaders in exile
aver the dam would submerge historical temples, churches and heritage sites
affecting the Kachin cultural identity. But more importantly recently Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), fighting for an independent Kachin State, has opposed
the dam construction. KIA been confronting the Myanmar army after it refused to
subjugate itself under the Myanmar army by mustering its cadres as Border Force
as per provisions of the 2008 Constitution. In April there had been a few
explosions in the CPC project site suspected to be carried out by insurgents.
This
has created a tricky situation for the army because KIA claims it is in
alliance with other other powerful insurgency groups including the Myanmar
National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) operating along the Chinese border,
and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in the northeastern Shan State, who have
also refused to convert their forces into Border Force. Though individually
these insurgency groups are not in their prime, collectively they could pose a
formidable threat to the civilian government. The army is in no mood to allow
any of these groups a free run;. This was evident when it launched operations
against the 4 KIA Brigade and overrun their strongholds. So ideally, it would
help the civilian government to improve its acceptance among ethnic minority,
and Kachins in particular, if it suspends the Myitsone project, the main focal
point of Kachin peoples' immediate concern.
But
the Chinese columnist Zha Diajiong, has glossed over these complexities behind
the situation probably because discussing Myanmar’s botched
democracy is never a favoured topic of Chinese media. So he has taken a
more favoured line. He says: “In North Africa and Europe, many large dams have
been demolished and abandoned due to the aging dam structure and the expensive
maintenance fees. The public has also come to a new recognition of dams’
environmental impact. So the dam construction in the Indo-China Peninsula bucks
international trends. There are many sensitive issues around dams, including
the ecological impact and the treatment of displaced people. The ecological
changes along the Mekong River, especially the tropical rain forest, influence
climate change worldwide. Regional governments, international organizations and
NGOs all have their own opinions as to how to protect the rivers’ water
resources.”
This
would indirectly indicate the CPC did not undergo the ecological and
conservation vetting before it was taken up. This is in direct contradiction of
Lu Qizhou, President of China Power Investment Corporation, who has said the
project had undergone thorough environmental vetting by both China and Myanmar
before it was agreed upon.
Of
course, columnist Zha Diajiong, had to acknowledge that the Chinese need to be
more sensitive to these issues. He says: “European and American transnational
enterprises are involved in hydropower and water conservancy projects in this
region, and it is common practice for them to assess the environmental and
social impact of projects. Chinese enterprises need to start taking steps to
deal with accusations by raising their risk and impact assessment standards to
international levels.”
Perhaps
Chinese also hope to retrieve the project at a future date. As Lu Qizhou,
President of China Power Investment Corporation said, "If the suspension
means stopping construction, it will cause a series of legal problems."
This is probably the reason why President Thein in his announcement said “we
will suspend the Myitsone project during the term of our government” rather
than stating he was giving up the project.
The
Myanmar-China relations are multi-faceted and deep-rooted to be shaken up by a
single decision unfavourable to China. The Chinese would probably not to allow
the suspension of the project to affect this close relationship, particularly
as many strategic projects like the rail and pipeline link from Yunnan with
Myanmar coast are still in incubation. We can expect the Chinese to negotiate a
face saving formula to arrive at a win-win situation rather than allow it to
upset the apple cart of China-Myanmar relations. China has invested in
Myanmar politically and economically for both strategic security reasons as
well as energy and mineral resources. And Mynamar needs China not only for
economic support but also to hold its hands to survive any internal and
international forays that could destabilize its cosy set up and upset its
nascent experiment with democracy. Having said this, China-Myanmar relations would
appear to have entered a new, if not tricky, phase.
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group
URL: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers48%5Cpaper4728.html
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