The decision of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) to register as a “legitimate” political party may well become a turning point in Myanmar’s history. The NLD under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi had been at the vanguard of peoples struggle for democratic reforms during the last two and a half decades. The NLD applied for registration as a political party on November 23 as per the requirements of electoral laws. The 21 NLD signatories of the application included three founders of NLD – Aung San Suu Kyi, former General Tin Oo, and Win Tin.
The NLD was de-recognized as a political
party after it refused to re-register as a political party as required by the
electoral laws for 2010 elections. It had boycotted the 2010 elections as it
considered both the 2008 Constitution and the electoral laws unjust.
The unanimous decision of the NLD’s 106-member Central Committee in favour of registering as a political party comes as no surprise. Aung San Suu Kyi and the other key NLD leaders have been deliberating over the decision for some time now. The decision was inevitable as President Thein Sein had gone ahead with progressive democratic reform measures even as he held out an olive branch to the NLD.
In fact his decision to sus end the
construction of the Myitsone dam project, a Chinese aided joint venture, in
deference to the popular demand had impressed many detractors of the regime
including the NLD. After the three contentious classes in the electoral
laws, particularly the one pertaining to restriction on political prisoners
contesting the election were changed, and a clause relating to the requirement
for political parties to ‘protect’ the constitution was amended to ‘respect’
it, the NLD decision making became easier.
Ignoring President Thein Sein’s
overtures would have compelled the NLD to function as an illegal political
entity outside the government-recognized political stream. Absence from
mainstream politics would have resulted in NLD being pushed to the sidelines,
conceding more political space to other legitimate parties. In the long run
this would have depleted the NLD of its following, discouraging moderate
elements from active participation. Of course at the more practical level,
by-elections are on the card for 48 seats in parliament. NLD’s
participation in the elections would offer a chance to prove its mettle and get
its leaders elected to parliament and push through more reforms.
There were other reasons also. The
international environment is slowly changing in favour of Myanmar, despite some
residual reservations about it. ASEAN member-nations have already
responded favourably to the democratic reforms undertaken by the government.
They have agreed to Myanmar’s chairmanship of the 10-member group in 2014. The
U.S. and the European Union, which have been steadfast supporters of Aung San
Suu Kyi’s struggle, have also been reacting positively to President Thein
Sein’s reform measures.
The U.S. is seriously re-examining its
Myanmar policy in response to the changes in the country. The U.S. Secretary of
State Mrs Hilary Clinton’s scheduled to visit Myanmar at the end of November
could hasten other changes as well. The sanctions regime which had been Suu
Kyi’s strong suit, may well be eased sooner than later if Myanmar responds to
some of the longstanding U.S. concerns on release of political prisoners and
ending ethnic insurgencies.
The NLD decision is also likely to
trigger other political opposition including the Buddhist clergy and ethnic
insurgent groups to fall in line with the NLD or continue their opposition to
the military-sponsored “democratic” regime.
Ethnic armed groups are in an
existential struggle with the government as their armed cadres have to be
merged with the border guards in terms of the 2008 Constitution.They are averse
to do so without a political settlement. As a result they are not likely to be
swayed by NLD decisionnless their future ceases to be a question mark under the
present government. According to The Irrawaddy, “which specializes in
reporting on Myanmar”, *already five ethnic insurgent groups –Karen National
Union (KNU) and Shan State Army-South (SSA-South), Kachin Independence
Organisation (KIO), Karenni National Progressive Party and Chin National Front
(CNF) - were holding peace talks in Chiang Mai in Thailand with a government
delegation headed by Aung Min, Minister for Railways, on their future. The KNU,
SSA-South and the CNF are reported to have informally agreed for a ceasefire.
However, the government had decided on
one to one meetings with each ethnic group rather than meet them collectively.
As a result smaller groups which have come together to increase their
bargaining power have been left out of these efforts. For instance the
government is yet to hold talks with United Nationalities Federal Council
(UNFC), a grouping with six full members and six associate members from Kachin,
Arakan and Southern Shan states.
The All Burma Monks Alliance (ABMA), an
activist body of the saffron struggle of Buddhist clergy, has expressed its
objection to the NLD’s registration as a political party. The electoral laws
also forbid monks participation in politics. The government appears to be
conscious of this objection and lifting the restrictions on monks’
participation in political activity is said to be on the cards. The
student groups also remain an important factor in the democratic struggle. Many
student leaders and monks are still in prison. Unless they are released both
the clergy and student groups would find it difficult to participate in normal
political activity.
President Thein Sein appears to be on a
fast forward mode in democratic reforms with a series of legislations to make
politics inclusive and living a little restrictive. The latest in the series
was the move to allow public protests in the country, which was a taboo in the
days of military rule. The President’s success in bringing back the NLD
into national politics is perhaps the biggest achievement to date.
However, finding an equitable solution
to ethnic minorities, who want meaningful autonomy in their traditional
homelands, continues to be the single issue with potential to destabilize
growth of democracy in Myanmar. No leader other than the late Maj Gen Aung San
had been able to build bonds with them to achieve national unity. It is too
early to expect President Thein Sein’s regime to do this as it has many
more miles to go for a full-fledged democracy to even Burmans, let alone the
ethnic minorities. But it is well worth considering.
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group Paper No 4788 dated November 27, 2011
URL http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers48%5Cpaper4788.html
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group Paper No 4788 dated November 27, 2011
URL http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers48%5Cpaper4788.html
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