Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Sri Lanka Perspectives - October 2012

Col R Hariharan

Highlights

Abolition of 13th Amendment: The provincial autonomy issue again came the fore as Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and leaders of two coalition partners - the right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and the left wing National Freedom Front (NFF) of the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) sought the abolition of 13th Amendment to the Constitution. This dissension within the ruling alliance could neutralize Indian efforts to get the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) to restart talks with the government on the reconciliation process. 

Miscellaneous: 
  • Closure of refinery
  • India-Sri Lanka FTA’s progress.
  • ‘KP’s new role.
Abolition of 13th Amendment

Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa gave a call for the abolition of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution that provides for creation of provincial councils and delineates their powers, in a media interview. He said there was no other option left because the post-war political strategy of Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Two partners of the ruling coalition - the right-wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and the National Freedom Front (NFF) led by former JVP leader Weerawansa came out strongly in support of his call. Weerawansa suggested holding a referendum on the issue. Advocates of abolition consider it as an external solution thrust upon Sri Lanka, obviously due to its origin after the India-Sri Lanka Agreement 1987.

However, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, the left parties of the coalition, and Douglas Devananda, the steadfast Tamil supporter of President Rajapaksa, came out strongly against any such move. Prof Tissa Vitharana, senior minister and leader of the Lanka Sama Samaj Party (LSSP), came out strongly against members of the government who called for abolishing 13th Amendment; he said the suggestion was “extremely unfortunate and would bring vastly negative repercussions.” He said the Amendment led to all the militant groups except the LTTE to give up arms and enter the democratic process under a unitary state. If the Amendment was abrogated “it will diminish and dash all hopes of not only Tamils but all Tamil-speaking people of this country to live in a united Sri Lanka as one nation with the Sinhalese. This is disastrous to the extreme”.

When President Rajapaksa and Dr Manmohan Singh met last month at New Delhi, India was said to have exerted pressure on him for resumption of talks with the TNA. And a TNA delegation was invited to New Delhi; it met the Indian Prime Minister and Minister of External Affairs to apprise them of their stand. The TNA leaders also met with the Chinese ambassador in Colombo to brief him on the issues faced by Tamils. While these moves could have provoked the ire of the Defence Secretary and Sinhala nationalist lobbies to call for abolition of 13th Amendment, there could be more to it. 

It could be to buy time for President Rajapaksa to delay direct talks with the TNA, as the government is making efforts to get in touch with Tamil Diaspora leaders using former LTTE arms procurer Kumaran Pathmanabhan (KP) who has been freed from custody to live in Kilinochchi. If the government succeeds in getting some key Diaspora leaders to negotiate with it by passing the TNA, the TNA’s position as the sole representative of Tamils would be weakened. 

In this context the introduction of the Divineguma Bill in parliament by Basil Rajapaksa close on the heels of calls for abolishing 13th Amendment is interesting. The bill aims at creating a department of Divineguma Development by merging three authorities - Samurdhi, Southern Development and Udarata (up-country) Development involved in savings and loan schemes. Though the bill appears innocuous, critics fear it would curtail the powers of provincial councils in rural development as the loan schemes would be controlled by the Colombo. The bill has run into a constitutional road block as it has to be passed by all provincial councils as per a ruling given by the Sri Lanka Supreme Court. Basil Rajapaksa strongly denounced TNA’s opposition to the Bill. He said, “The TNA does not have an authority to talk about the provincial councils. The President has the largest mandate received by any head of state in the country, the government has the highest majority under the proportional representation system and the provincial councils are also under the governing party.” This orchestration of actions between the Rajapaksa brothers would indicate likely involvement of the President in the strategic call for abolition of 13th Amendment.

However, as the coalition ranks are divided on the issue of abolishing 13th Amendment, President Rajapaksa is unlikely to take precipitate action. Moreover, he will have to consider its repercussions on Sri Lanka’s relations with India and New Delhi’s sensitivity to mounting anti Sri Lanka sentiments in Tamil Nadu. Sri Lanka would like to maintain cordial relations with India as evidenced by the visit of Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa to New Delhi at the invitation of India’s national security advisor Shivshankar Menon. This came in spite of all the rhetoric on 13th Amendment as an imported solution. During the visit, Gotabaya is reported to have discussed with his Indian counterpart the entire gamut of military relations between the two sides, including continued training of Sri Lankan defence personnel in India.  

Miscellaneous

Refinery closure and petrol shortage: As Sri Lanka tankers sent to Iran to transport oil from Tehran at the request of the Iranian government have not been allowed to enter Iranian waters by American blockade. As a result the  country’s only oil refinery - Sapugaskanda oil refinery, designed to process only Iranian crude, has been shut down for the first time in 42 years history after the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation ran out of crude stock.

India-Sri Lanka FTA: A new study has shown that the India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA) has helped narrow the trade gap between the two South Asian neighbours in favour of Sri Lanka, while attracting more Indian investments into the country. The study titled ‘Regional Economic Cooperation and Connectivity is South and South-West Asia: Potential and Challenges’ released by the UN-ESCAP in September 2012 said: "An FTA in the region that has experienced significant benefits of trade creation for both parties involved is the FTA between India and Sri Lanka, which was an early experiment towards regional economic integration in South Asia…provides useful lessons for other South Asian economies in terms of the progress in strengthening trade and economic linkages." It added "over 70 per cent of Sri Lanka’s exports have been undertaken within the framework of FTA preferences, compared to around 30 per cent of India’s exports. On the other hand, only around 14 per cent of Sri Lanka’s imports from India have been under the FTA. Therefore, the FTA has assisted in narrowing the trade gap between the two countries in favour of Sri Lanka and has contributed towards more equitable and balanced growth of bilateral trade…It has indirectly led to a significant amount of Indian investments in Sri Lanka, which was a mere US$ 2.5 million in 1998 increased to US$ 146.8 million in 2011, recording the second highest FDI inflows into Sri Lanka."

‘KP’s new role: Sri Lanka government has allowed the LTTE’s former chief arms procurer, Kumaran Pathmanathan (KP) to settle in the house of the late LTTE’s political chief Tamilchelvan in Kilinochchi. The NGO founded by KP - North Eastern Rehabilitation and Development Organization (NERDO) - is operating from the same house. Though the government claimed he was under house arrest, the move was probably part of the Sri Lanka plan to use him to establish direct links with Tamil Diaspora leaders as referred earlier. The opposition UNP as well as about 60 other former LTTE members in prison awaiting prosecution have objected to KP’s release. However, TNA appeared to have a tacit understanding about his role.
Written on October 32, 2012
Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends,Volumen 6 No. 8 September 2012
www.security-risks.com

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