Col R Hariharan
There are both contemporary and historical reasons behind
the North Korean threat to launch an offensive against South Korea and strike
at U.S. bases in Guam and Hawaii. North Korea (Democratic Peoples’ Republic of
Korea –DPRK) and South Korea have been having an uneasy relationship since the
singing an armistice in 1953 after the Korean War ended in a stalemate. At that
time a De-militarized Zone (DMZ) was created along the 38th parallel
between the two countries to prevent breaking out of fresh conflict. However,
DPRK has not recognized the maritime boundary between the two countries; this
continues to be an irritant in their relations. Annual joint exercise by South
Korean and U.S. troops and navy is yet another major source of irritation for
the North. The Kim regime has repeatedly used these irritants to whip up
anti-U.S. hysteria and talk tough on attacking South Korea.
A contemporary reason could be South Korea’s emergence
as a democratic nation with strong economic power next only to China and Japan
in East Asia, in sharp contrast to DPRK’s dismal performance.
During the last six decades, North Korean regime has
left the land and people impoverished. Food shortages have become endemic as
the farm productivity is low. Though the regime has achieved moderate success
in producing some conventional weapons like multi-barrel rocket launchers, and
short range missiles derived from Chinese and Soviet originals, it has made
little industrial progress.
The North Korean regime has gained international
notoriety for its ruthlessness and insensitivity to international concerns on
nuclear proliferation, human rights and governance. It has been branded as one
of the rogue states for its penchant to be a clandestine source of weapons to
terrorist organizations and nations under arms embargo.
Kim Jong-un succeeded his father Kim Jong-il as the
President of DPRK in 2011. The Kim family’s maverick style of state craft has
made DPRK loose cannon in the East Asian region dominated by the U.S. and its
allies for long. North Korea had periodically used the threat to develop nuclear
weapons and long range rockets to extract concessions mainly from the U.S. The
Yongbyon nuclear site was closed in 2007 after a similar standoff. So many
analysts feel the newly anointed Kim was probably trying to establish his
leadership credentials by following the time tested method of talking tough to
rally the masses in his support.
How serious is the North Korean threat to
wage war?
The Kim dynasty has been able to hold on to power due
to two factors: the 1.1 million-strong army’s loyalty to Kims and China’s
support. North Korea has close relations with China since the days Korean War.
Over two million-strong Chinese Peoples Volunteer Army fought side by side with
North Korean troops against the U.S. and its allies during the Korean War. The
strategic relationship between the two countries was formalized in 1961 with
the signing of a mutual aid and cooperation treaty, which was last renewed in 2001 and
valid till 2021. Under this treaty, China has agreed to provide military and
other assistance to North Korea against any external attack.
However,
there is also a downside to Sino-North Korean relations. DPRK President Kim
Il-sung severely criticised the Cultural Revolution in China as a result of
which fights erupted between Red Guards and DPRK troops along the border. China
had not been very happy with North Korea’s conduct in escalating international
tension over its nuclear weapons programme since 2003 and provocative actions
against South Korea in 2010 when it torpedoed and sank a South Korean war ship
killing 46 sailors. In the same year it also engaged in artillery duel with
South Korean troops on Yeonpyeong Island off North Korean coast.
Probably China finds North Korea, under the Kim family
leadership, a source of increasing embarrassment when it is trying to improve
its image as a responsible international power. In particular, China has been
unhappy with North Korea nuclear weapons programme. In fact, China’s vote
in favour of the UN Security Council resolution imposing financial sanctions
after North Korean carried out third nuclear test in February 2013 in violation
of its 2012 promise to refrain from testing. Even in the present standoff,
China has been expressed its concern over and wants it to be resolved through
dialogue.
The U.S., a strategic ally of South Korea since the
Korean War days, is concerned at the developments after the latest nuclear
test. It had been carrying out joint army and naval exercises near the DMZ with
its South Korean ally. North Korea possesses some crude nuclear bombs and
has successfully tested Musudan-1 medium range missile with a range of 4000 km.
Moreover, a series of North Korean actions like announcing the entry of North
Korea into a state of war with South Korea, plan to restart Yongbayong nuclear
reactor, moving of medium range missiles to the eastern coast, continuous
broadcasting of military rhetoric, suspending the operations of joint Korean
Kaesong industrial zone and instruction to the military to be ready for war are
all indications of preparations for war.
So the U.S. and South Korea cannot afford to ignore
Kim Jong-un's threat as bluster because he could act impetuously in true Kim
family tradition. In order to discourage any such adventurism the U.S. flew two
B2 stealth bomber sorties over South Korea in a show of force. It has also
moved F22 fighters and missile defence systems, naval ships and troops into the
region. U.S. missile and missile defence systems in Japan as well as in
Guam were also placed on alert.
Due to the strategic alignment of China and
North Korea on one side and South Korea, Japan and the U.S. on the other, any
conflict initiated by North Korea has every possibility of enlarging into a
much bigger conflict particularly if North Korea uses nuclear weapons. It would
definitely affect China’s core interest of maintaining harmony in its strategic
neighbourhood. It can also complicate the China- U.S. relations already under
strain ever since China started asserting its territorial claims in South China
Sea. So probably there is an unstated strategic
convergence between China and the U.S. in not wanting to allow North Korea to
trigger a war at a time of not their choosing.
To sum up, North Korean threats
and actions have an element of imminence to become a reality. However,
Pyongyang’s shrill rhetoric on state TV also has a surreal quality as media
reports indicate normal life continuing even as threats are reeled out. Seoul
continues to maintain equanimity perhaps because like the U.S. it does not want
to exacerbate the charged situation, while keeping its powder dry.
Potential impact of conflict on Indian interests
South Korea can be considered as one of the success
stories of India’s look east policy. India’s economic relations with South Korea have been
growing rapidly since 2006. It has become multi-faceted now, buoyed by the
signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in January
2010. India-Korea trade now around $ 20 billion is expected to reach $ 40
billion by 2015. South Korea has also emerged as an important investor in
India. It has a healthy share of around 20 percent in Indian automobile
industry while most of the Indian IT majors and some of the major industrial
houses like Tatas are operating in South Korea.
Growing
strategic convergence between India and the U.S. has inevitably brought South
Korea also closer to India. Beijing’s strong strategic relations with Pakistan
and North Korea’s transfer of nuclear technology to it have given India a
natural convergence of security interest with Seoul. These interests were
formalised when India and South Korea signed a Memorandum of Understanding
(MoU) on Defence Logistics and Supplies in the year 2005. In May 2007, Indian
and South Korean defence ministers met for the first time to discuss “matters
of mutual interest” and agreed to strengthen cooperation on training of armed
forces personnel.
Both
countries decided to raise the level of their strategic partnership during the
visit of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to New Delhi in January 2010. His
joint declaration with Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh focused on
strategic interests and security cooperation between the two countries. Indian
Defence Minister AK Antony visited South Korea a few months later to sign two
MoUs with his Korean counterpart on experience and information sharing on
defence matters and on futuristic joint defence technology development. The
visit of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh to Seoul in 2012 and the proposed
visit of South Korea’s newly elected President Park Geun-hye
to India are likely to bring the two nations closer.
Considering
the growing economic and strategic dimensions of India-South Korea relations,
any war involving South Korea would be a matter of serious concern for India.
While India may not be directly involved in the conflict, it is likely to use
its influence to help out South Korea and contribute to any international
initiative to bring back peace in the Korean peninsula.
[This article includes comments made by Col
Hariharan in a TV discussion on April 7, 2013 on North Korean threat to unleash
nuclear strike on U.S. bases and South Korea.]
Courtesty: South Asia Analysius Group Paper No. 5455 dated 09-Apr-2013
2 comments:
Korean have to face lots of problems these days their economic situations is not very powerful however they make some thoughts with other countries especially they always connect with Pakistan IT industry people's to resolve problems of their own.
Links to two articles on the Korean issue.
Good Wishes
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/04/09/whats-annoying-the-north-koreans/
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/04/10/north-koreas-justifiable-anger/
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