Col R
Hariharan
Myanmar surprised everyone
with its early success in ushering in democracy – despite the constraints of
2008 Constitution that legalised army’s role in parliament and executive -
within two years of holding the first
multiparty elections in two decades. President Thein Sein’s far sighted
leadership has enabled the government to transform its image from a stodgy,
insensitive military dictatorship of yesteryears to an increasingly
people-friendly one.
Theoretically
this should make it easy for democracies like India to deal with Myanmar.
Americans have stepped in a big way in Myanmar. The successful visit of
President Thein Sein to the White House in May 2013 – the first ever by a
Myanmar President in 47 years – with the U.S. President Barak Obama’s assuring
American support to Myanmar's political and economic reforms is a testimony to
it.
The
renewed U.S. presence in Myanmar brings an end to their skewed relations. The
signing of a bilateral trade and investment agreement with the U.S on the
occasion of Thein’s visit has triggered the flow of international businessmen
to Yangon. Greater U.S. presence in Myanmar, considered for long as the pocket
borough of China, is likely to create its own strategic ripples in the region.
And India would also considering these strategic changes in Myanmar in shaping
its overall Asia-Pacific policy.
International
recognition for President Thein has come the hard way. He has brought in
radical changes in the approach to politics and governance. He has freed most
of the political prisoners. Restrictions on the media have been lifted.
Above
all, he managed to bring into politics Mrs Aung San Suu Kyi and the National
League for Democracy (NLD), who had boycotted the 2010 general elections. They
are now back into mainstream politics despite their objections to the continued
role of army, legitimized by the 2008 Constitution. So there is an air of
positive vibrations in the country about its future; and there are greater expectations
among the international community about Mynamar’s future role.
This was evident
at the first ever summit of the World Economic Forum on East Asia hosted by
Myanmar on June 6-7, 2013 with the participation of 10 heads of state and 550 business leaders from more than 60 global companies.
However, these welcome
developments should not cloud the fact that democracy in Myanmar is still in
the half-way house. It is a work in progress. The military now lurking in the
backdrop still has a say in deciding the survival of the government both in the
legislature and executive. There
are political prisoners still in prison. The economy lacks fiscal
discipline and structures for monetary control and investment conforming to
international norms are not yet in place. And Kyat, the national currency, is
yet to be stabilized.
Though
President Thein has been addressing most of these issues, he has a long way go.
He has the daunting task of overcoming traditional animosities and prejudices
to evolve democratic solutions. Unless, the country has a period of social and
political stability free from ethnic and sectarian strife it would be difficult
for him to carry through the economic reforms and energise development
activities. And he needs the support of all stakeholders – the army, political
parties, youth, and the international community – in this task.
In a
nutshell, the future of democracy is very much dependent upon rebuilding
Myanmar’s national identity to galvanise the people to take them on the road to
prosperity. It is not a simple narrative because the nation’s democratic
experience since early years of independence in 1948 was marred by lack of
strong leadership, political infighting, factionalism and rampant corruption
resulting in chaos, poor governance. The country was in with itself fighting
ethnic insurgents without respite. Democracy failed to deliver what it promised
– improve the quality of life of the people. In fact it provided the
opportunity for General Ne Win and the army to take over power in 1962.
After
four decades of army rule the country had no political assets when it went for
elections in 2010, except for the idiom of controlled political activity
approved by the army. People have had no exposure to multiparty democracy
except for its short but disastrous debut in the 1990 parliamentary election
which was disowned by the military rulers. As a result Myanmar has now woken up
to democracy without the tools to manage peoples’ power.
And in
Myanmar it translates into 40 percent of the population in productive age. The
youth of the country, who had historically spearheaded the struggles for
independence against the British and Japanese and the military junta in 1988,
suddenly find they have a small say in deciding their fate. Internet freedom
has given them access to socially networked world where they find youth power
on the rise. They are becoming more conscious of their democratic rights than
ever before. It is logical that their aspirations for fundamental freedoms,
rights to livelihood, education, health and articulation of their voice would
continuously rise and they would expect the democratic government to deliver
them now.
Unless
the government and political parties manage to constructively channelize youth
power to build a national identity, we might see it morphing into an extra
constitutional pressure group. This phenomenon is already taking place in the
streets of Cairo, Delhi, Athens, Paris, and Istanbul. Can the disparate
political parties, with their own private and public agendas, lacking
charismatic leadership – perhaps barring Aung San Suu Kyi - manage this?
If
they cannot, it would provide an opportunity for yesteryears’ military
predators to stage a comeback to power to “bring back order and stability” as
they did in 1962. So far, President Thein appears to have managed the situation
quite well, evidently with the blessing of military leaders. Though Ms Aung San
Suu Kyi and the NLD have extended their support to President Thein, they have
not given up their opposition to the participation of army in the legislature
and executive. They have only deferred it after talks between Ms Suu Kyi and
President Thein Sein to enable him to go ahead with the democratic reformation
process.
However,
this issue could come back to haunt when the country goes to polls in 2015 to
elect a new parliament with the NLD as the strongest player. It is unlikely the
military would allow any threat to its favoured status to go unchallenged. And
that could cramp the progress of democratic reforms. There are two other
intractable issues that could threaten the onward progress of democracy –
ethnic insurgency and the rising tide of Theravada Buddhist activism.
Ethnic
insurgencies have been a perennial problem of Myanmar since independence. After
going through a cycle of demand for independence and armed struggle, ethnic
communities of Myanmar were hopeful of finding a satisfactory solution to their
demands. However, their hopes were belied when their armed cadres
were required to come under the Myanmar army under the 2008 constitution even
before a political solution to their demands for autonomy in terms of the
Panglong Agreement signed at the time of independence was found. This has led
to sporadic clashes between the army and ethnic insurgent groups between spurts
of ceasefire.
Though
there is an uneasy ceasefire in force with major ethnic insurgencies of
Kachins, Karens, and Shans, they have not been brought to a logical conclusion
with a win-win solution. The reason for this is the trust deficit existing
between the ethnic communities and the government that had been sustained by
years of armed struggle and exploitation at the hands of the army.
Even
the ceasefires effected after a number of rounds of talks are short lived. The
most recent example is the ceasefire agreement the
Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) entered into with the government in May
2013. According to news reports, KIO spokesman had confirmed that 21 separate
armed clashes between government troops and the KIO have taken place since both
sides reached a 7-point agreement, under which they pledged to decrease
military tensions and work towards a future agreement. The reports claim that
most of the 100,000 refugees displaced by the conflict are yet to return home.
Though
a lot of goodwill exists on both sides to live amicably, President Thein faces
the difficult task of selling his solution to the majority Burmans (Bamar) who
form 70 percent of the population – a sizeable “vote bank” in the elections.
And to add to the problem is the economic exploitation of minority areas rich
in natural resources. A lot of foreign investment particularly from China, is
being made to develop energy and mineral resources in these regions. And they
would like to have a say in resolving issues in ethnic regions. For instance
the Shwe gas pipeline being developed by the Chinese runs through the KIO
controlled area; so Chinese want to be present in the peace talks between the
government and KIO representatives.
Myanmar’s
Citizenship Law 1982 has a xenophobic character, weighted against people of
foreign origin, even third generation descendents, living in the country.
Because of its discriminative clauses thousands of people of Indian origin were
deprived of their citizenship. It also denied citizenship to Rohingyas –
Muslims of mixed Indian and Arakanese origin – though they had been living in
Myanmar for hundreds of years. Periodically, violence unleashed by Buddhist
majority against them had resulted in driving over 200,000 of them to seek
refuge overseas, particularly in neighbouring Bangladesh. The 2012 anti-Rohingya riots left about 140 killed and rendered
100,000 homeless.
Perhaps emboldened by the
passive state response to anti-Rohingya riots in 2012, anti-Muslim violence is
staging a comeback. In March 2013, Buddhist activists killed a total 43 people
and injured 93 in Meikhtila in Central Myanmar. In all 1227 homes, 77 shops and
37 mosques were destroyed. The riots quickly spread to six other townships in
Thayawady district in Bago Region in Lower Myanma and to 11 townships in
Mandalay and Pegu divisions, where Muslim neighbourhoods were ransacked.And the
army had to be called to restore order rather belatedly.
The anti-Muslim sentiments
have some political and social support which has helped stoke Therawada
Buddhist vigilantism. These elements are heading for a showdown with the
government after senior Buddhist leaders expressed their support a
controversial draft Law for the Protection of Race and Religion. The draft law
also requires any Buddhist woman seeking to marry a Muslim man to get the
permission of her parents and local government officials. Any Muslim man who
marries a Buddhist woman is required to convert to Buddhism.
As these are socio-political
issues both President Thein and Mrs Suu Kyi will be finding it difficult to
resolve. They would need to combine their energies to evolve a game plan to
keep these issues within manageable levels to ensure the progress of democratic
reforms. In the coming months, we can expect only slow progress in the reform
process, facing challenges at every step from divisive political and social
forces. It will be a true test of national leadership’s ability to deal with
these challenges.
India’s
relations with Myanmar are likely to become more broad-based as Myanmar’s
investment and business environment enlarges and becomes structured. A
closer relationship with India enables Myanmar to balance China’s overwhelming
influence better, particularly as it complements India-U.S. strategic relationship.
Indian leadership of all political hues is aware of the importance of Myanmar
in India’s overall strategic spectrum.
Myanmar's
historical cultural and religious experience and shared colonial history with
India makes dealings between the two countries easier. A number of
projects to improve infrastructure connectivity among BCIM
(Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) and Indo-ASEAN connectivity are in the offing.
India’s Sittwe multi-modal project is also making progress. However, their
success would depend upon democracy firmly establishing itself in
Myanmar. It is essential that India shows a lot of understanding and paly
an active role in helping Myanmar achieve success in its journey to become a
vibrant democracy.
Written on July 6, 2013
Courtesy: Foreign Policy Research Centre Journal 15 - India-Myanmar Relations
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