[This article includes Col Hariharan’s recent comments
on the subject in various TV news channels, and web and print media.]
Prime Minister Dr
Manmohan Singh’s is facing a Shakespearean dilemma on attending the
CHOGM (Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting) to be held in Colombo in
November 2013. This is not surprising as there are strong political and
strategic reasons, both for and against, attending the Colombo summit.
He is facing strong
internal and external pressures that cloud objective decision making on the
issue. Added to this is the erosion of the PM’s leadership image in recent
times. It has taken a severe beating recently after huge scams linked to his
office started surfacing one after the other. As a result, each and every
decision of the PM is being questioned and the same fate probably awaits his
decision on CHOGM as well.
He has to do some
delicate tightrope walking to meld long term national interest with short term
political priorities. The task is made more difficult because it can affect not
only the poll prospects of the Congress party in the 2014-parliamentary
election but even the longevity of his coalition before the election.
Political leaders of
almost all hues including the Congress party in Tamil Nadu have called for a
boycott of the CHOGM. This is not surprising as they got on the Eelam bandwagon
ever since Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Ms Jayalalithaa effectively used the Sri
Lanka Tamil issue to sweep the state elections. She has continued her
strident stance as many Tamils consider the Centre’s response to Sri Lanka’s
war crimes and human rights aberrations as inadequate and ineffective; this has
put both the Congress and the DMK on the defensive. Smelling blood, the Tamil
Nadu Chief Minister turned even more hawkish, calling for slapping a trade
embargo on Sri Lanka and international action against President Rajapaksa. The
developments in Tamil Nadu seem to have influenced India’s vote against
Sri Lanka in the UNHCR last year.
The Tamil Nadu Chief
Minister had been emphatic in calling for an Indian boycott of the CHOGM. All
parties in the state were quick to follow suit. None of them, barring some
notable exceptions, have critically debated the pros and cons of boycotting the
CHOGM on the country's Sri Lanka policy or on Sri Lanka Tamils.
During the last three
years, Ms Jayalalithaa has strengthened her support base with a slew of
populist measures like the running subsidized food outlets that benefit the
poor. Many analysts feel this would help her capture most of the 40
parliamentary seats in Tamil Nadu in the 2014 elections. Ever since the NaMo's
electoral bandwagon started gathering massive public support, the Congress Party
is in jitters about its poll prospects in 2014. So the Party simply cannot
afford to ignore Ms Jayalalithaa and Tamil Nadu. Already a section of Congress
leaders is said to favour forming an electoral alliance with the AIDMK,
ditching the DMK, their long standing partner.
But neither Dr
Manmohan Singh nor the Congress party figure in the mercurial chief minister’s
favoured list. Only consolation is that she is playing her coalition cards
close to her chest so far, despite her better equation with Narendra Modi.
Probably this has given Congress a glimmer of hope of reworking its relations
with her. If the PM attends the CHOGM, such hopes are sure to be dashed.
Even without the
Tamil Nadu factor, the PM’s decision had been made more difficult by Sri Lanka
President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s studied indifference to India’s repeated plea to
keep up his promises on devolution and implementation of the 13th
Amendment. Even the latest effort by Indian Minister of External Affairs (MEA)
Salman Khurshid during his visit Colombo failed to evoke any worthwhile
response on substantive issues. The only achievement of the visit was signing
of he agreement for the much delayed Indian-aided Sampur power plant. (It had
been criticized on environmental count, although not a word has been spoken
about the Chinese built Norocholai power plant which continues to limp.)
With the opposition readying to flay the PM for “yet another foreign policy
failure” he may well decide to skip the CHOGM as a politically safe option.
If Dr Manmohan Singh
does not attend the CHOGM, he would not be alone. Canada has already
announced it would boycott the Commonwealth meet. From the beginning Canada was
against Sri Lanka hosting it in Colombo as it would legitimise the Sri Lankan
President’s continued indifference to international concerns on his
government’s dismal human rights record. Some see the Canadian Prime
Minister’s boycott decision as a political move to woo voters of Sri
Lankan Tamil origin in the country. In most of the countries, foreign policy
decisions are invariably influenced by popular perceptions and Canada cannot be
faulted on this count. Even President Rajapaksa’s decision to host the CHOGM
(like many other decisions) is part of his political stratagem to boost his
image.
On the other hand,
British Prime Minister David Cameron facing similar pressures appears to have
decided to attend CHOGM. British government has
reiterated the need to engage Sri Lanka on human rights issues by attending the
Commonwealth summit. It proposes to come with “a clear message that Sri Lanka
needs to make concrete progress on human rights, reconciliation and a political
settlement."
Indian interests in
Sri Lanka are much larger than either Canada or Britain. Two inter-related
aspects guide India’s relationship with its island neighbor – geo-strategy, and
Tamil minority question. Geo-strategically, India wields a huge influence
over the sub-continent particularly on smaller countries like Sri Lanka. With
China whittling away India’s strategic sphere of influence in the South Asian
neighbourhood, India has to consider not only its national interest but also
the regional interest while taking decisions that affect its neighbours.
And in Sri Lanka, China is emerging as a direct challenge to Indian presence.
In fact, it effectively used the aftermath of the Eelam War to emerge as one of
the two big investors and aid givers in Sri Lanka, the other being India.
So India will have to
reckon with the emerging strategic dynamics in its relationship building with
Sri Lanka. As the head of state of the country hosting the CHOGM, President
Rajapaksa would be its head for the next two years. So Sri Lanka reckons the
successful conduct of the CHOGM would boost its international image which had
been tarnished in the murky aftermath of the Eelam War.
More than that, it
would be a balm to the bruised ego of President Rajapaksa who has been hurt by
the continued international focus on war crimes allegations rather than his
remarkable success against the LTTE. India’s vote for the U.S. resolution
against Sri Lanka at the UNHCR has already created bitterness against India in
Sri Lanka.
If Indian PM boycotts
the CHOGM, it is likely to add to Sri Lanka’s bitterness. This would not help
India’s desire to add more depth and content to its relations with Sri Lanka
but its ability to influence Sri Lanka’s decision making process on the both
strategic issues and on Tamil minority issues.
But the moot question
is, beyond its symbolic solidarity with Tamils who had suffered, how would the
CHOGM boycott help Sri Lanka Tamils? The much delayed Northern Provincial
Council (NPC) election was held thanks to Indian sustained engagement with Sri
Lanka. Subsequently in the NPC poll, people gave a massive mandate to the Tamil
National Alliance (TNA) hoping the Alliance would help them improve the quality
of life and ensure Colombo attends to their concerns with greater sensitivity.
CV Wigneswaran, the NPC prime minister, has given clear indications that he
would pursue the stated objectives of TNA vigorously. This process would
require India’s sustained engagement and persuasive influence with Colombo.
Although CHOGM
provides the PM an opportunity to meet other heads of state on the sidelines of
the summit, it does not matter whether the PM attends it or not. In fact,
CHOGM is not a vibrant and cohesive entity like ASEAN but a highly over rated
old boys club of former British colonies and the Brits surviving more on empire
nostalgia than on collective international influence. But the PM’s decision on
CHOGM has to be part of India’s overall game plan because of its impact on
India's long term interests in sustaining a win-win relationship with Sri
Lanka. So it has to be more than a reaction to local political compulsions
Contentious issues
relating to Sri Lanka Tamils and Sri Lanka’s human rights are not going to
disappear as not even President Rajapaksa seems to be in a hurry to bring them
to a closure. A decision on CHOGM would set a precedent when India-Sri Lanka
relationship is tested again when the UNHCR
takes up Sri Lanka’s accountability issue at its next meeting. So Dr
Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister has to take a deliberate and informed
decision on attending the CHOGM. One can only hope he does so.
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group Sri Lanka Update No 238, Paper No 700 dated
Oct 25, 2013 URL http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1388
(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on
South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of
Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and
the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org)
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