Col R Hariharan
There are
clear indications that the Chinese are stumbling in their effort to crush the
Uighur struggle against the Han Chinese domination in Xinjiang. The scrupulous
semantics used by Chinese state-controlled media describe them as terrorists
though the attacks lack the sophistication of modern day terrorism. It has not
helped to cover up the Chinese failure to give confidence to the restive
"minority" Uighurs who form a majority in Xinjiang Autonomous Region
in China's Northwest.
The way the
Chinese have handled the "terror" carried out in Beijing in October
2013 is a case in point to understand all that is wrong with Chinese approach
to tackling terrorism.
The “terror
attack” occurred when Usman Ahmet, a Uighur driving a jeep ploughed into a
crowd of people near the Tienanmen Square in Beijing on October 28, 2013
killing three people and injuring 39 others. The driver and his mother and wife
who were in the jeep also died on the spot. According to initial report, some
eyewitnesses said the jeep was being chased by someone; it was probably trying
to get away from the pursuer.
The three
Uighurs facing death row were found guilty of “leading a terrorist group and
endangering public security.” Along with the driver of the fatal vehicle, they
had “looked for guns and explosives in different places, watched terrorism
videos and jointly planned terrorist acts such as blasts and killings in
Beijing.”
Two others
were sentenced to life and 20 years in jail respectively for guilty of
“participating in a terrorist group and endangering public security. Three more
Uighurs were sentenced to five to 10-year imprisonment for “participating in a
terrorist group.”
The Beijing attack was not as deadly as the explosive attack carried out in Urumqi market on May 22, 2014. Thirty nine civilians were killed and 94 others injured in the attack. But the Beijing attack typifies the Chinese way of handling separatist extremism that goes by the name of terrorism in China.
It also
shows the increasingly innovative ways in which Uyghur separatists had taken
their “operations’ beyond the confines of Xinjiang and in this case to the
national capital.
There is a
problem with Chinese approach to unconventional warfare. In India where
semantic niceties dominate the thought process on COIN, “extremism”,
“militancy”, “insurgency” and “terrorism” often indicate how the state
authority would like to handle the threat. However, to be fair to the Chinese,
the fine line separating various types of anti-state violence is getting
increasingly subsumed thanks to rise and spread of Jihadi terrorism worldwide.
But, by
branding all acts of violence against the state as terrorism, the state
response becomes heavy handed resulting in further alienation of the population.
It also increases the dependence upon military strategies rather than evolving
a holistic strategy to address political, sociological and economic issues that
add substance to the Cause of separatism.
This is what
appears to be happening in Xinjiang. The statistics on terrorist attacks from
the years 2009 to date published in the Global Times is revealing. This year so
far the Chinese have attributed six incidents to the Uighur terrorists in the
first six months as against seven in 2013 and two, three and one respectively
in the years 2012, 2011 and 2009. This confirms the Chinese fear that after
2009 Uighur separatism is once again gathering mass to stage a comeback.
There was no
incident in 2010 presumably because of the strong military crackdown after the
anti Chinese riots that rocked Urumqi in July 2009. Casualties in the riots
were heavy - 197 people killed and 1700 others injured while 633 houses and 627
vehicles were damaged.
The style of
operations and weaponry used now indicate Uighur separatism is yet to
articulate itself powerfully to become a terrorist movement. Some of the acts
like the Beijing jeep “attack” where a whole family perished, look more like an
act of desperation than a suicide attack of the Jihadi kind. It also underlines
the continuing determination of some in Uighur society to assert their will
against the powerful and insensitive state machinery in spite of all odds.
Uighur
extremism is also gaining more national visibility and making impact
since 2013 - President Xi Jinping’s first year in office. Xi had a first-hand
exposure to it when one of the three Uighur separatist outfits - the Turkestan
Islamic party - carried out a knife attack and bombing in Urumqi city railway
station on April 30. Three people lost their lives and 79 others were injured
in the attack.
More
importantly, the attack was timed to coincide with the visit of the President
to Xinjiang, destablising the state for a while. So it was no wonder when Xi
vowed to wipe out terrorism by making the state counter terrorism apparatus more
professional and powerful at the regional and national levels.
As though
challenging the President, Uighur separatists carried out yet another explosive
attack in Urumqi the very next month. It was even more deadly, killing 39
civilians and injuring 94 others. In its wake, the Chinese have launched a
year-long crackdown on terrorism nationwide.
Now counter
terrorism figures prominently in China’s national security schemes. It
also finds a place in joint military exercises - big or small - with a whole
range of countries extending from Russia to India to Thailand and Sri Lanka to
the US. Counter terrorism cooperation has become an important part of in
China’s bilateral discussions with heads of governments, particularly neighbouring
countries including India.
At times the
over emphasis on military approach has resulted in overkill; a typical example
is the arrest of a prominent Uighur intellectual Ilham Tohti, a known advocate
of non violence and supporter of dialogue between the ethnic communities, in
January 2014. He is now held incommunicado in Xinjiang, facing a secret trial.
Despite
these efforts, the Chinese seem to be running into trouble in handling Uighur
separatism. Their intelligence agencies do not seem to have their ears to the
ground to forewarn them of impending separatist strike. The successful
execution of a daring attack in Urumqi during the President’s visit is a case
in point. This speaks of poor interface between the Han Chinese and the
minority populations.
There is
also a need to address the economic alienation of Uighurs from the Chinese
development story. Chinese have a long tradition of settling disbanded
units of Han Chinese dominated army in border regions. This practice has
boosted the Han Chinese population in Xinjiang particularly in the 70s during
the period of fractious relationship with Soviet Union.
The Xinjiang
Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) originally formed out of the disbanded
military settlers has emerged as powerful economic and semi-military government
loose cannon. It has administrative authority over several cities and
settlements and farms. It operates outside the control of the government of the
autonomous region making a mockery of the much touted Uighur autonomy. Its exclusive
preference for Han Chinese makes it a powerful external factor furthering the
alienation of Uighurs.
Thus over
the years, despite a lot of lip service to national unity, functional relations
between the Han Chinese immigrants and the Uyghur regional majority have not
developed on equitable basis. This feeling of alienation was further compounded
by the state’s short sighted restrictions on religious practices of Uighur
Muslims in the wake of 2009 trouble. This is a dangerous trend as it could push
the Uighur separatists into the arms of Taliban fundamentalism which is
expected to rise in the wake of American troop pullout from Afghanistan this
year. So time is running out for the Chinese to rethink their strategies in
Xinjiang.
Basically
Chinese have to adopt a holistic approach to include ‘winning the hearts and
minds of the people’ as a part of the COIN effort. The Global Times editorial
in 2013 had some sane advice on this. It said: “Winning the hearts of the
public in sensitive areas has decisive significance. Xinjiang needs to mobilize
people from all of society to launch an anti-terrorism fight…The July 5 riots
in Xinjiang in 2009 left a deep scar between the Han and the Uighur. The
estrangement between the two will be constantly used by extreme forces who have
been trying to turn it into the deep-rooted social causes for their violent and
terrorism activities there.
“The whole country should be dedicated to dissolving the estrangement, which is the key to Xinjiang's long-term stability. We should also make Xinjiang people acknowledge the harm of such estrangement and that extreme forces are violators of the interests of the Uighur people. Meanwhile, various places in Xinjiang should appoint a certain number of police from ethnic minorities. The Uighurs should be made to believe that they are trusted members of the Chinese populace.”
“The whole country should be dedicated to dissolving the estrangement, which is the key to Xinjiang's long-term stability. We should also make Xinjiang people acknowledge the harm of such estrangement and that extreme forces are violators of the interests of the Uighur people. Meanwhile, various places in Xinjiang should appoint a certain number of police from ethnic minorities. The Uighurs should be made to believe that they are trusted members of the Chinese populace.”
We know from
our own experience in Nagaland and Mizoram that no amount of military crackdown
alone can uproot the feeling of alienation and separatism unless holistic
efforts are made to nurture the feeling of inclusivity among the alienated so
that they join the national mainstream.
This process
requires a lot of patience and continuity. And Xinjiang is no exception to
this. So one can only hope someone in authority take the Global Times advice to
heart and put in an out of the box plan for Xinjiang. Otherwise the Chinese are
going to find it more and more difficult in handling Uighur separatism.
Written on
June 19 and updated on June 30, 2014
Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No 2114 dated June 30, 2014
Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No 2114 dated June 30, 2014
http://www.c3sindia.org/china-internal/4089
(Col
R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, is
associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia
Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info & http://hariharansintblog.blogspot.in )