Highlights
·
- Impact of Modi government: The unprecedented success of BJP in securing the overall majority in the parliament has been welcomed by Sri Lanka as it would mean its Sri Lanka policy would not be subject to coalition pressures from Tamil Nadu. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assertive leadership style portends India-Sri Lanka relations will be put on fast track. In his brief meeting with Sri Lanka President Rajapaksa after his swearing in Modi is believed to have asked the President to expedite action on fulfilling his promises to India on implementing 13th amendment as well as the reconciliation process with Tamils.
- Political rumblings in ruling coalition: The increasing criticism of ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition from two important but light weight partners like the leftist Lanka Sama Samaj (LSS), the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and the National Freedom Front (NFF) as well as the opposition parties – the United National Party (UNP) and the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) on wide ranging criticism on key issues like, abolition of executive presidency, financial mismanagement, corruption, absence of rule of law and even judicial appointments have given rise to speculation that early elections might be called for. Even though Rajapaksa continues to remain strong, the UPFA coalition could face problems in the parliamentary poll.
Impact of Narendra Modi
government
It was a big relief for President
Rajapaksa’s government after BJP secured an absolute majority in the Indian parliamentary
election that freed it from the coalition pressures of it’s alliance partners
in Tamil Nadu. BJP’s alliance in Tamil Nadu with small but vocal pro-Eelam
parties like Vaiko’s MDMK and the PMK and the actor Vijay Kant-led DMDK could
gain only two seats, after the AIADMK led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Ms
Jayalalithaa swept the polls securing 37 seats. DMK failed to secure a seat.
Thus Tamil Nadu’s influence in parliament with AIADMK in opposition is expected
to be minimal. This would come as a big relief to Sri Lanka.
Prime Minister Modi’s
invitation to President Rajapaksa to attend his swearing-in ceremony was
probably not expected in view of Modi’s strong stand in support of Tamils
during his election campaign in Tamil Nadu.
President Rajapaksa must have
been pleased after Modi chose to ignore the vehement protests against his visit
by BJP’s Tamil Nadu allies and Chief Minister Jayalalithaa who boycotted the
swearing in function. A day after the swearing-in, Prime Minister Modi and
President Rajapaksa met and had a cordial but pointed discussion.
Briefing the press after the
meeting India’s Secretary for External Affairs Ms Sujatha Singh said “Modi
requested the government of Sri Lanka to expedite the process of national
reconciliation in a manner that meets the aspirations of the Tamil community
for a life of equality, justice, peace and dignity in a united Sri Lanka. Early
and full implementation of the 13th Amendment and going beyond will contribute
to this process.” Both leaders are said
to have agreed to continue the talks to find a solution to the fishermen issues
as it was a livelihood problem.
Prime Minister Modi
prioritising the SAARC countries to make his first external contact immediately
after taking office, would be appreciated by Sri Lanka, which has been facing
international pressures at the UNHRC mainly from the Western powers and the US.
So Sri Lanka would probably expect closer networking with India that could come
in handy in preventing any attempted revival of LTTE activity in Sri Lanka as
well as support in international forums. However, the new Indian Prime Minister
is more assertive than his predecessor and he is not under coalition pressures
from Tamil Nadu. So, Indian support to Sri Lanka would probably depend upon Sri
Lanka delivering upon its promises to India. This could put President Rajapaksa
under pressure as he has been stalling the full implementation of 13th
Amendment and in ethnic reconciliation process with Tamils.
In the initial reaction to
Modi’s reminder to Rajapaksa for full implementation of the 13th
Amendment meeting, Sri Lanka minister for Irrigation and Water resources
development Nimal Siripala de Silva said the government would cooperate with
India always but no one should interfere with the internal affairs of the
country.
The minister who is chairman
of the parliamentary selected committee (PSC) looking into the problem, said "President Mahinda Rajapksa’s position is that
a solution to the issue should be evolved only through the PSC." However,
he said the government did not intend to confront India and it wished to sort
out all issues through negotiations. The PSC has been boycotted by the major
opposition parties -the UNP, the JVP and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).
This has reduced its relevance.
The appointment of Ms Sushma
Swaraj as the Minister for External Affairs has been welcomed in Sri Lanka by
all parties as they considered her as having sufficient expertise. However, the
TNA was cautious as during her last visit to Colombo at the head of a
parliamentary committee she had asked the TNA to participate in the PSC.
In this context, the request
of TNA chief P Sampanthan to meet Ms Jayalalithaa to pursue the outstanding
issues of Sri Lanka Tamils is interesting. Equally interesting is Modi
accepting a request from Ms Jayalalithaa, who boycotted Modi’s wearing in
ceremony, for a meeting to present a memorandum containing some of the crucial
issues relating to Tamil Nadu which have been pending with the Central
government for a long time. Request for the Centre to take action on Sri Lanka
war crimes issue is one of them. Her meeting with the Prime Minister is
scheduled to take place on June 6 in New Delhi.
Political
rumblings in ruling coalition
Though Sri Lanka is due for both parliamentary and presidential elections in 2016, there is widespread speculation in the media that the President might advance one of them by a year to 2015.The recent activities of some of the coalition partners of within the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) as well as opposition parties tend to reinforce this.
Though Sri Lanka is due for both parliamentary and presidential elections in 2016, there is widespread speculation in the media that the President might advance one of them by a year to 2015.The recent activities of some of the coalition partners of within the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) as well as opposition parties tend to reinforce this.
The two members of the UPFA coalition - the right wing
Sinhala party Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) often dubbed as ‘the monks party’ and
the National Freedom Front (NFF) which broke away from the Sinhala Marxist
opposition party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) have been strident in their
criticism of the government on a number of issues ranging from allowing the
opening of new casinos, corrupt land deals, increase in narcotics traffic etc. They
were joined in by the Left parties of the ruling coalition over the
government’s implementation of the Strategic Development Projects (SDP) Act (under
which various tax and excise exemptions up to 25 years can be granted. The
decision of the government to approve Packer’s development project under SDP
had been criticised as religious heads had objected to it as a project to
promote casinos. However, media analysts feel these parties would not quit the
coalition but building a hype to mark their importance as elections were
imminent.
On the other
hand, the UNP, JVP and the Democratic Party (DP) of Sarath Fonseka are pushing
for the establishment of five Independent Commissions namely, Election
Commission, Public Service Commission, National Police Commission, Human Right
Commission, Permanent Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or
Corruption, Finance Commission and Delimitation Commission which has not been
done after the President replaced the 17h amendment with 18th amendment
and reduced his accountability.
They are
also focusing on the demand for ending executive presidency to make the
President more accountable. The UNP has prepared reports on in the execution of
major infrastructure projects like the Matala airport and Hambantota harbour
project for suspected malpractices and corruption. The reports have recommended
the government to carry out a comprehensive audit of the project. The UNP is in
the process of finalising the fact finding report on Chinese aided Norochcholai
power project which has been performing poorly. There had also been talk of
putting up a common opposition candidate against President Rajapaksa if he
contests.
Despite all
these fulminations, President Rajapaksa is likely to retain his hold on
government though the UPFA’s absolute majority in parliament might come down
after next parliament elections.
Written on May 31, 2014
Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, June 2014 issue URL: www.security-risks.com
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