Yes. ISIS can get hold of nuclear weapons from Pakistan

The Islamic State is rewriting the whole idiom of al Qaeda type jihadi warfare.

COL R HARIHARAN @colhari2 |POLITICS | 4-minute read |   26-05-2015

Periodically, international media carries news items about terrorists trying to procure nuclear weapons to add to their increasingly sophisticated weaponry. The British daily The Independent’s recent speculative story about the Islamic State (ISIS), the world’s most notorious terrorist group, trying to get a nuclear weapon from Pakistan probably belongs to this genre of reports.

The report was based on an article appearing in the ISIS propaganda website Dabiq under the name of British photojournalist John Cantlie, who was kidnapped by the terrorist group in Syria in November 2012. He said the ISIS had "billions of dollars in the bank" and they could purchase a nuclear device through weapon dealers in Pakistan who had "links to corrupt officials" in the region, though it was "far-fetched".

Is the ISIS really capable of adding nuclear weapons to its increasingly sophisticated armoury? Usually Western analysts have dismissed such reports as not credible because jihadi groups lacked the resources, access and technical skill to procure nuclear weapons and use them. There are also problems of portability and transportation of nuclear weapons across the globe. The ISIS has enough money thanks to its well heeled global patrons and sale of oil from captured oil fields.

The Dabiq article was timed to coincide with the ISIS’ sensational capture of Ramadi (Iraq) and the ancient city of Palmyra (Syria) in quick succession. Ramadi is the capital of the Sunni-dominated Anbar province in Iraq and Palmyra was the last Syrian-controlled border crossing between Syria and Iraq. Thus the ISIS now controls a seamless swathe of territory across both Syria and Iraq increasing its options and flexibility to coordinate operations on both fronts. Therefore, the strategic situation in the Levant has clearly swung in favour of the ISIS. So even if the article in The Independent was speculative, it might be articulating the ISIS’ desire for "big ticket" acquisition of nuclear weapons to add to its arsenal.

Such a thing could further dislocate the US leadership, already reeling under strong criticism from within. Though US President Barack Obama continued to claim, "I don't think we're losing", the dismal failure of the US and its coalition partners and allies to stem the tide of the ISIS now swamping both Iraq and Syria has exposed the bankruptcy of the current US strategy.

The ISIS is rewriting the whole idiom of jihadi warfare of the al Qaeda type. The US strategists do not seem to have factored this in their strategy, which seems to treat it as yet another jihadi terror group. The ISIS has continued to demonstrate that its cadres are highly motivated, tech-savvy, Western-educated youth with worldwide tentacles. They are using social media as an effective propaganda weapon to enlarge tactical victories to further strategic objectives.

Their successes are sustaining the ISIS’ high morale and mettle despite more than 3,000 airstrikes carried out by the US-led coalition forces since June, 2014 in Iraq alone. In addition to this, some of its key leaders including al Baghdadi have been put out of action by targeted drone attacks. These attacks have assisted the jihadis to widen their recruiting base in the Muslim world as "collateral damage" caused by the drone attacks among innocent civilians (including the killing of two Western hostages) have created huge international backlash against the US. This is fast eroding President Obama’s credibility back home. International criticism against American "exceptionalism" is increasingly becoming strident.

In contrast to this, the US-backed Iraqi government had to call upon the Iran-assisted Shia militia’s assistance to boost a counter-offensive to recapture Ramadi after its American-trained and equipped troops fled when the jihadis launched a series of suicide attacks inside the city. The Iraqis also left behind half a dozen tanks, some artillery pieces and a large number of armoured personnel carriers and about 100 Humvee trucks!

None among the US or coalition partners seem to be succeeding because they are fighting for their own narrow self interest rather than common good.

The US' ignominy may well be leveraged by the ISIS to muddle the waters further by procuring a nuclear weapon. But can it do so from Pakistan? That is a question India should be analysing as the ISIS is slowly spreading its tentacles into India, having won over some of the active anti-India terrorist outfits in Pakistan.

According to a report of the Institute for Science and International Security, Pakistan had been doubling its nuclear weapon-producing capability since 2011. It now has the capability to produce 19 to 26 nuclear weapons annually. In an analytical article on May 19, this year in its website on new constructions in Pakistan’s Khushab nuclear reactor, David Albright and Serena Kelleher Veragntini have quoted an unnamed former senior Pakistani official who said that the purpose of the plutonium produced in the reactors at Khushab was "to build smaller, shorter range nuclear weapons, including tactical nuclear-tipped missiles".

This is the latest affirmation of information known for some time. Tactical, nuclear-tipped missiles are easily portable. So the Pakistan establishment, which seems to have many open and clandestine links with jihadi groups, has the option to tell the ISIS: "If you have the inclination, we have the weapon". And that could spell doomsday for not only India but also Pakistan. One can only hope better sense prevails everywhere.

#Islamic State, #Ramadi, #Palmyra, #ISIS

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO.in

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/isis-islamic-state-ramadi-palmyra-iraq-syria-barack-obama-levant-dabiq/story/1/3940.html

Sri Lanka security perspectives: April 2015

Col R Hariharan

Passing of 19^th Amendment

President Maithripala Sirisena demonstrated his political strength when Sri Lanka parliament passed the 19^th Amendment to the Constitution to prune the powers of the executive president on April 28, 2015. Only ten days earlier 110 Rajapaksa-loyalists of United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) in parliament had proclaimed their opposition to the 19A. However, President Sirisena keen to fulfil his electoral promise effectively wield his powers as the leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), majority party in parliament, to get overwhelming support with only 15 members voting against the amendment. However, the pro-Rajapaksa loyalists managed to delay the passing of 19A by April 23, the 100-day deadline of Sirisena-Wickremesinghe alliance had set to fulfil their electoral agenda.

The event may mark the beginning of the end of Rajapaksa family’s political power because the 19A prohibits Sri Lankans holding dual citizenship from becoming parliament members. This would automatically exclude former President Rajapaksa’s brother Gotabaya, a US citizen holding dual citizenship, from participating in electoral politics. Gotabaya wielded enormous power as defence secretary virtually controlling the armed forces as President Rajapaksa also held the defence portfolio. 

However, his other brother Basil who controlled a large chunk of government development funds as minister for development should be able to contest the election as he is only a US Green Card holder. But both the brothers are being investigated for their involvement some of the serious corruption cases that have been unearthed by the Sirisena government.

Politically President Sirisena has emerged stronger after the passing of the 19A as it not only reduces the powers of executive president but also takes away the powers of the President to meddle with the appointments t0 head the judiciary, election commission and police commission as former President Rajapaksa did.

Presidential Advisor on Constitutional Affairs Dr Jayampathy Wickremratne has assessed that with the passing of the 19A the executive powers of the President have been scrapped by 60 to 65 percent. By this action the government succeeded in laying the foundation for greater constitutional reforms to strengthen parliamentary system of governance.

He also said the government has now included the right to information as Fundamental Right bringing it within the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court. This was more than what was promised before the election.

The next big step for the government would be to get the 20^th Amendment (20A) which aims at reforming the present electoral system passed through the parliament. A consensus on when to introduce the bill for the amendment is yet to emerge between the SLFP which holds the majority and the alliance government on this issue. The UNP wants to call for election after getting the amendment through while the SLFP would like to hold the election first on the present system and let the new parliament handle the 20A. However, the UNP which sensed the public mood after the success in getting the 19A passed has called for immediate dissolution of parliament and holding of elections. This issue is likely to be resolved soon.

Progress of corruption inquiries

The ruling alliance in Sri Lanka in keeping with its election promise to root out corruption has established a Special Presidential Task Force for recovery of illegally acquired state assets. The 13-member commission includes the legal luminaries, Director Generals of Customs and Commission to Investigate Bribery or Corruption (CIBOC) and Commissioner General of Inland Revenue Department.

The government has empowered the Presidential Task Force to “investigate, identify, trace, seize and transfer to Sri Lanka, state assets and revenue which are due to the government that have been illegally or unlawfully acquired or procured and are being concealed or kept outside the territory of Sri Lanka. And take effective steps to cause their seizure and transfer or return to Sri Lanka to be confiscated and vested in the General Treasury.”

Anti-corruption charges are already being investigated against the Rajapaksas including the former President and his brothers Basil and Gotabaya. In fact Basil Rajapaksa, former minister, was arrested on his return from the U.S. and is being interrogated now. Gotabaya is also facing the investigators. Right wing monks loyal to Gotabaya have protested against the action. Similarly the decision of the CIBOC to summon former President Rajapaksa to question on alleged corrupt deals and stashing illegally gained money abroad created a protest among SLFP loyalists within the parliamentary party. Now the CIBOC investigators proposed to question the former president at his home.  

The government has already sought the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Reserve Bank of India in tracing the illegal accounts abroad. A special team from the World Bank’s Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative (StAR) recently visited Sri Lanka to help the investigations. Sri Lankan media reports have quoted the Cabinet Spokesman and minister Rajitha Senaratne as saying that the government had learned that up to $ 10 billion in public funds had been stolen and taken out of the country.

Though Rajapaksas have put up a brave face and denied any act of corruption linked to them and called the action of the government witch hunt, the government appears to be determined to thoroughly investigate and prosecute them. But time seems to be running out for Mahinda Rajapaksa to politically stage a comeback particularly after this loyalists’ move to scuttle President Sirisena’s efforts to push through the 19A miserably failed. This portends bad news for brothers Gota and Basil Rajapaksa under the corruption investigations. This may continue to dog them for a long time to come. 

Written on April 30, 2015

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, May 2015 issue www.security-risks.com

 

Sri Lankan politics: Move over Rajapaksa, it's Sirisena now

Gandhigiri (or is it Buddhagiri) seems to be at work in Sri Lanka in real life!

Col R HARIHARAN @colhari2  POLITICS |  4-minute read |   04-05-2015

Move over Rajapaksa, it’s Sirisena who calls the shots now. That is the message President Maithripala Sirisena has sent to Sri Lanka people and political constituency  by ensuring the 19th Amendment (19A) to the Constitution was passed  in Parliament as promised in the run up to the election.

Three things stand out in his success. He had to outmanoeuvre strong opposition from Rajapaksa-loyalists who at one stage numbered 110 in the 250-member parliament. They belonged to Sirisena's own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and its tiny coalition partners whose support he would need in the forthcoming parliamentary elections to ensure he is not subsumed by the traditional rivals-turned partners – the United National Party (UNP).

It is a tribute to his political ability that after lengthy parleys with the Loyalists except for 15 diehard supporters of Rajapaksa others voted for the Amendment when it came up. This would indicate his strengths within the SLFP that were not visible to the public when he served as the senior minister under President Rajapaksa. The former President ensured the limelight was always on himself and none else. Sirisena's success now should open up the eyes of doomsday men among the public.

The 19A in its final form does not abolish executive presidency as contemplated by the partners of national alliance which fielded Sirisena to take on Rajapaksa in the presidential elections. But even then the idea lacked clarity. By the time political consensus emerged in parliament, partners of the ruling Sirisena-UNP alliance seemed to have agreed upon taking a middle path: retaining the executive presidency with lesser power and greater accountability to parliament while increasing the powers of the prime minister and parliament.

Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe showed a lot of flexibility and pragmatism in the approach of to ensure the 19A enjoyed maximum support in Parliament. This should help them in getting through another tough nut to crack: 20th Amendment (20A) to change the present electoral system where strong differences exist between the two main parties. The new system is a complex mix of both first past the post and modified proportional representation systems. How much the public and will understand its final form is an open question.

As the SLFP is more likely to listen to Sirisena, one thing is clear: now it would not be easy for Rajapaksa to rally the party support in his favour. After all in politics winner takes all. In any case the days of free-wheeling presidency seems to be over as the sweeping powers it enjoyed have been curbed by 19A. 

Yet another impact of the 19A will be on the inquiries into alleged corruption by Rajapaksa brothers – Mahinda, Basil and Gotabaya – who had controlled the reins of power. If the inquires now underway throws up evidence, it would be difficult to delay follow up action not only for Rajapaksas but also the authorities as the 19A has made the right to information a fundamental right.

However, former President Rajapaksa is a street smart politician who would not give up easily. Already a one-to-one meeting between Rajapaksa and Sirisena is being organised. It does not matter at whose initiative it is because both the seasoned stalwarts will try to give and take political favours. But clearly it is Sirisena who holds the aces at least for now. So Mahinda must be ruing his past as Thomas Jefferson did: “No man will bring out of the Presidency the reputation which carries him in.” And that many not be enough as he is likely to face more taxing days.

Lastly, Sri Lanka people have shown a lot of political maturity to see that all these radical changes take place without any thuggery and fisticuffs that used to be common in politics in Rajapaksa days. The message it sends to our people cannot be clearer: if you elect the right persons with a clear agenda, life will be more comfortable for everyone, even for the thugs. Bodhu Bala Sena, Buddhist ultras who used to beat up Muslims and spew venom against other religions, is now thinking of registering as a political party according to the latest news. It seems Gandhigiri (or is it Buddhagiri) seems to be at work in Sri Lanka in real life!

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/sri-lanka-maithripala-sirisena-mahinda-rajapaksa-slfp-unp/story/1/3529.html

Blog: http://col.hariharan.info/2015/05/sri-lankan-politics-move-over-rajapaksa.html

 

ISIS' Baghdadi dead: What it means for India?

Al-Baghdadi's asserted his leadership by announcing formation of the Caliphate, disregarding the ruling of al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri.

POLITICS/ | 6-minute read |   03-05-2015

COL  R HARIHARAN  @colhari2

Nearly a week long media speculation about death of the self proclaimed "Caliph" of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Abu Bakr al Baghdadi seems to have ended with The Guardian confirming that he was alive but incapacitated due to serious spinal injury suffered during a US-led air strike on his vehicle. The attack took place on March 18 near the Syrian border in Western Iraq. It quoted three sources, said to be close to the ISIS, to confirm that al Baghdadi "will never again lead the organisation".

Though initially, the US had said the Iran Radio report was incorrect now they seem to have accepted al Baghdadi's exit from the leadership after more details on his present status came out in the media. So al Baghdadi is now hors de combat in the ISIS' war in Iraq and Syria. And that should be good news not only for the US and its allies but every country because the wide world had become the hunting ground for Islamic youth motivated by the ISIS' success.

It was Abu Bakr al Baghdadi imaginative leadership that turned the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) to look beyond its home turf to morph into the ISIS, the world's most dreaded Jihadi terror group. As King of Jordan said in a CNN interview, the ISIS seems to have appealed to "the depressed, deluded and disillusioned jihadi cadres and Islamic youth" the world over.

The ISIS also provided space for foreign jihadi cadres to articulate their ideas using modern IT tools to effectively propagate its philosophy and activities in their homeland and from Europe to countries as far as Australia. They had originally come to fight the Assad regime in Syria perhaps with the tacit understanding of the West when the Syrian war started. Al Baghdadi managed to turn the tables on the Western strategic planners to prove he has the right mix of leadership, ideology and military strategy.

The ISIS' spectacular success in Syria capturing large tracts of Sunni habited areas in 2014 paved way for the formation of the Islamic state of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). But al Baghdadi's masterstroke was the proclamation of the Islamic caliphate with al Baghdadi as the caliph. The ingenious move gave form to the ephemeral concept of Nizam-e-Mustafa (Rule of Allah) to take ISIS beyond the realm of jihadi terror groups. With the Caliphate came the call for pan Islamic movement for the Rule of Allah that has always had strong appeal to conservative Muslims and clerics everywhere.

Al Baghdadi announced the formation of the Caliphate disregarding the ruling of the all-powerful al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri to confine ISIS activities to Iraq only, speaks for al Baghdadi's strong faith in his own assertive leadership style. So it is not surprising the ISIS has found support from large sections of Islamic clergy as well as many Jihadi terror groups like the Boko Haram in Nigeria and sections of the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan pledgint their loyalty to the Caliphate.

The ISIS' foreign jihadists with their knowledge of the western idiom and languages has come in handy for the group to grab global media attention after they launched a propaganda blitz using the social media to attract Islamic youth. ISIS visuals of jihadi fighters' gory beheading of "infidel" Western journalists and slaughtering of soldiers with the cadres delivering their messages in flawless English did more than keeping the ISIS in headlines; they appealed to sections of Islamic youth who feel impotent to channelise their rage at the injustice meted out by American air and drone strikes across the Islamic world killing scores of civilians in drone strikes with impunity. For them al Baghdadi probably looked to be the leader they were waiting for to rally their strengths. Al Baghdadi also seems to have provided a rallying point for the motley collection of jihadi groups which were adrift after Osama bin Laden, the charismatic Al Qaeda leader, was killed by American SEALS in Pakistan.

Al Baghdadi's exit from leadership comes at a crucial time when the ISIS is fighting to hold on to its territorial gains in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq the army supported by the Shia militia managed to recapture part of the territory it had lost earlier. The US-led coalition air strikes against the terror group are taking a heavy toll of ISIS. Across the world from the US to Europe to Australia ISIS sympathisers are being hunted out and its cells busted. Even Saudi Arabia is rounding up all ISIS supporters, blocking the vital flow of financial support from the country. On the other hand, the al Qaeda seems to becoming the flavour of the day after its Yemeni counterparts occupied Aden and successfully stemmed the onward march of Houthi Shia rebel militia who had driven out the Yemen government.

According to reports ISIS deputy leader Abu Alaa al Afri is leading the organisation now. Al-Afri is a long term associate of ISIS with strong credentials to assume the leadership; but the moot question is will he be able to lead the organisation at a ctitical time? Under the leadership of al Baghdadi the organisation had exploited windows opportunity offered by the weakness of the enemy to its advantage. Unless al Afri can keep up the momentum generated by al Baghdadi, ISIS cadres may cross over to the al-Nusra Front, their parent affiliate which is very much intact. They also have the option of joining al Qaeda whose fortunes seem to be on the ascent after its strong show in Yemen.

Usually, when terrorist groups are not active internal schism comes to the fore. This is what happened to the LTTE during the ceasefire period in 2002-04 when its eastern wing leader Karuna quit the organisation over leadership issues. Ultimately the damage done to the Tamil Tigers by the split contributed to its defeat in the Eelam War.The ISIS may face a similar fate if al-Afri cannot manage the groups and motivate them.

There is also the issue of the Caliphate; if al Afri fails to make the cut to become the Caliph soon, the second Caliphate may well become the shortest lived one. And that could kill its affinity to conservative sections of Islam vital for its legitimacy. That could make the call 'Caliph is dead; long live the Caliph' yet another grand idea for glory fading into irrelevance.

As far as India is concerned with the recent powerful bomb attacks by ISIS in Jalalabad and al Qaeda operations in Kuduz in Afghanistan, the message is clear. The ISIS here and now in addition to the Taliban knocking on our doors. The worst case scenario is if they form an opportunistic alliance to spread their footprint in India. As Afghan President Ghani said during his recent New Delhi visit, "The shadow of terror haunts our children, women and youth. Terror must be confronted and must be overcome.'' Let us not ignore it.

#Iraq, #Terrorism, #Jihad, #Abu Bakr al Baghdadi

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO  http://www.dailyo.in/politics/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-isis-iraq-united-states-syria-jihadi/story/1/3503.html