Al-Baghdadi's asserted his leadership by announcing
formation of the Caliphate, disregarding the ruling of al Qaeda chief Ayman al
Zawahiri.
POLITICS/ | 6-minute
read | 03-05-2015
COL R
HARIHARAN @colhari2
Nearly a week long media speculation about death
of the self proclaimed "Caliph" of the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS) Abu Bakr al Baghdadi seems to have ended with The Guardian confirming that
he was alive but incapacitated due to serious spinal injury suffered during a
US-led air strike on his vehicle. The attack took place on March 18 near the
Syrian border in Western Iraq. It quoted three sources, said to be close to the
ISIS, to confirm that al Baghdadi "will never again lead the organisation".
Though initially, the US had said the Iran Radio report was
incorrect now they seem to have accepted al Baghdadi's exit from the leadership
after more details on his present status came out in the media. So al Baghdadi
is now hors de combat in the ISIS' war in Iraq and Syria. And that should be
good news not only for the US and its allies but every country because the wide
world had become the hunting ground for Islamic youth motivated by the ISIS'
success.
It was Abu Bakr al Baghdadi imaginative
leadership that turned the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) to look beyond its home
turf to morph into the ISIS, the world's most dreaded Jihadi terror group. As
King of Jordan said in a CNN
interview, the ISIS seems to have appealed to "the depressed, deluded and
disillusioned jihadi cadres and Islamic youth" the world over.
The ISIS also provided space for foreign
jihadi cadres to articulate their ideas using modern IT tools to effectively
propagate its philosophy and activities in their homeland and from Europe to
countries as far as Australia. They had originally come to fight the Assad
regime in Syria perhaps with the tacit understanding of the West when the
Syrian war started. Al Baghdadi managed to turn the tables on the Western
strategic planners to prove he has the right mix of leadership, ideology and
military strategy.
The ISIS' spectacular success in Syria capturing
large tracts of Sunni habited areas in 2014 paved way for the formation of the
Islamic state of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). But al Baghdadi's masterstroke was the
proclamation of the Islamic caliphate with al Baghdadi as the caliph. The
ingenious move gave form to the ephemeral concept of Nizam-e-Mustafa (Rule of
Allah) to take ISIS beyond the realm of jihadi terror groups. With the
Caliphate came the call for pan Islamic movement for the Rule of Allah that has
always had strong appeal to conservative Muslims and clerics everywhere.
Al Baghdadi announced the formation of the
Caliphate disregarding the ruling of the all-powerful al Qaeda chief Ayman al
Zawahiri to confine ISIS activities to Iraq only, speaks for al Baghdadi's
strong faith in his own assertive leadership style. So it is not surprising the
ISIS has found support from large sections of Islamic clergy as well as many
Jihadi terror groups like the Boko Haram in Nigeria and sections of the Tehrik
Taliban Pakistan pledgint their loyalty to the Caliphate.
The ISIS' foreign jihadists with their
knowledge of the western idiom and languages has come in handy for the group to
grab global media attention after they launched a propaganda blitz using the
social media to attract Islamic youth. ISIS visuals of jihadi fighters' gory
beheading of "infidel" Western journalists and slaughtering of soldiers
with the cadres delivering their messages in flawless English did more than
keeping the ISIS in headlines; they appealed to sections of Islamic youth who
feel impotent to channelise their rage at the injustice meted out by American
air and drone strikes across the Islamic world killing scores of civilians in
drone strikes with impunity. For them al Baghdadi probably looked to be the
leader they were waiting for to rally their strengths. Al Baghdadi also seems
to have provided a rallying point for the motley collection of jihadi groups
which were adrift after Osama bin Laden, the charismatic Al Qaeda leader, was
killed by American SEALS in Pakistan.
Al Baghdadi's exit from leadership comes at
a crucial time when the ISIS is fighting to hold on to its territorial gains in
Iraq and Syria. In Iraq the army supported by the Shia militia managed to
recapture part of the territory it had lost earlier. The US-led coalition air
strikes against the terror group are taking a heavy toll of ISIS. Across the
world from the US to Europe to Australia ISIS sympathisers are being hunted out
and its cells busted. Even Saudi Arabia is rounding up all ISIS supporters,
blocking the vital flow of financial support from the country. On the other
hand, the al Qaeda seems to becoming the flavour of the day after its Yemeni
counterparts occupied Aden and successfully stemmed the onward march of Houthi
Shia rebel militia who had driven out the Yemen government.
According to reports ISIS deputy leader Abu
Alaa al Afri is leading the organisation now. Al-Afri is a long term associate
of ISIS with strong credentials to assume the leadership; but the moot question
is will he be able to lead the organisation at a ctitical time? Under the
leadership of al Baghdadi the organisation had exploited windows opportunity
offered by the weakness of the enemy to its advantage. Unless al Afri can keep
up the momentum generated by al Baghdadi, ISIS cadres may cross over to the
al-Nusra Front, their parent affiliate which is very much intact. They also
have the option of joining al Qaeda whose fortunes seem to be on the ascent
after its strong show in Yemen.
Usually, when terrorist groups are not
active internal schism comes to the fore. This is what happened to the LTTE
during the ceasefire period in 2002-04 when its eastern wing leader Karuna quit
the organisation over leadership issues. Ultimately the damage done to the
Tamil Tigers by the split contributed to its defeat in the Eelam War.The ISIS
may face a similar fate if al-Afri cannot manage the groups and motivate them.
There is also the issue of the Caliphate;
if al Afri fails to make the cut to become the Caliph soon, the second
Caliphate may well become the shortest lived one. And that could kill its
affinity to conservative sections of Islam vital for its legitimacy. That could
make the call 'Caliph is dead; long live the Caliph' yet another grand idea for
glory fading into irrelevance.
As far as India is concerned with the
recent powerful bomb attacks by ISIS in Jalalabad and al Qaeda operations in
Kuduz in Afghanistan, the message is clear. The ISIS here and now in addition
to the Taliban knocking on our doors. The worst case scenario is if they form
an opportunistic alliance to spread their footprint in India. As Afghan
President Ghani said during his recent New Delhi visit, "The shadow of
terror haunts our children, women and youth. Terror must be confronted and must be
overcome.'' Let us not ignore it.
Courtesy:
India Today Opinion portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-isis-iraq-united-states-syria-jihadi/story/1/3503.html
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