Power struggle between rival terror groups in Pakistan
and across South Asia poses the danger of renewed attacks on Indian territory.
The Islamic State (ISIS) carried out three
deadly terrorist attacks killing 63 people in three continents in countries as far apart as Tunisia, Kuwait and France on Friday. All the people except for two
terrorists killed in action were innocent civilians living well
away from the scene of the war raging against the ISIS. Their only fault was
they were at the wrong place at the wrong time.
The attacks were terrorism at its w0rst perpetrated
probably by not more than six terrorists brainwashed by the Second Caliphate. It showed the ISIS juggernaut is moving forward
undeterred by thousands of airstrikes, conventional operations by disparate enemies
and even a few setbacks in the battlefronts in Syria and possible loss of territory
in Iraq.
The three attacks present three different
aspects of ISIS' unique target selection and method of operation to serve its
strategic goals. Perhaps more dangerously, it also demonstrated Islamic State
developing an uncanny ability to coordinate operations across nations.
In both Tunisia and France a lone gunman
carried out the attack. In Tunisia the gunman, now identified as an engineering
student carried out the attack in a hotel in Sousse, 140 km from capital Tunis.
He opened indiscriminate fire on tourists, mostly foreigners, killing 24 of
them before he was shot dead. Similarly in France a lone terrorist struck at an
American owned chemical plant, beheaded a man and probably made an abortive
attempt to blow up the gas works though some people were injured when he opened
fire. The decapitated head was displayed with ISIS’ black flag indicating its
jihadi signature.
The ‘lone wolf’ attacks by individual
terrorist seem to have become the specialty of Islamic State’s decentralized
terrorist operations in various countries from as far as the US and Europe. It
uses individuals motivated by its massive propaganda on social media dished out
through thousands of sites. It is perhaps the most cost-effective way to spread
terrorist attacks far and wide using individuals living beyond the pale of
local counter terrorism apparatus. It is ideally suited for Europe and the US to
feed upon the existing grievances of conservative Muslim minority. Even with
all the advanced technologies no nation to keep track of individuals whose
jihadi sympathies only show up when they attack.
This is a dangerous trend as it could appeal
to the net-savvy individuals who are brainwashed by web-based jihadi propaganda,
particularly in countries like India where internet and smart phone usage is
increasing by geometrical proportions. India would do well to look tell tale
signs through close interaction with community leaders at the grass roots to
understand the impact of jihadi propaganda among the vulnerable population. The
vulnerable sections should be taken into confidence to spread general awareness
of the threat to the whole community from such lone wolves with jihadi mindset.
Tunisia is perhaps the most secular country
in the Maghreb. It has always been favoured by European tourists. It has been
comparatively peaceful after the Arab Spring discouraged foreign tourists for a
while. They were now coming back. But the arrival of foreign tourists has
become the attraction for the ISIS to attack Tunisia’s tourists haunts because
it gets global publicity. Only three months back in a jihadi attack on Bardo
Museum 19 people mostly foreign touristswere killed. With the second attack now
the signal is clear; as the Tunisian head of state said it is war now.
Though France had been a part of the
American inspired regime change game in Libya and its spillover conflicts in Francophone
Africa, it was no blind fellow traveler of American dispensation on terrorism. However,
ever since France came down heavily on Islamic terrorism in the wake of the
Charlie Hebdo massacre of 12 people in January 2015 it seems to have become the
most hated nation in Europe among Jihadi terrorists. France has a long history
of fighting Algerian insurgents in France and perhaps one of the best organized
country to handle terrorists. It has a large Muslim population and perhaps the
country could face more “lone wolf” attacks.
Tunisia and Kuwait were never front line states in the
war against jihadi terrorism but they have a context in the ISIS’ war against
non-Sunni infidels. Kuwait is a Shia majority country in th midst of a large
Sunni neighbourhood. The ISIS’ sectarian attack now on a Shia mosque has strong
sectarian connotations. In the neighbouring Saudi Arabia al the jihadists
targeted a Shia mosque sometime back. so of triggering a confrontation against
Sunnis. In Tunisia both Sunnis and Shias are minorities as the majority follow
the Maliki school of Islam.
The Sunni sectarian idiom is also related to the ISIS’
competitive strategies against the al
Qaeda to justify its self-styled caliphate. However, the world over Shias and
Sunnis have by and large lived amicably, particularly in India which has the
highest population of Shias next only to Iran. Howver, the spread of Islamic
fundamentalism of the Wahabi kind has fanned latent sectarian differences of
Sunnis in South Asia. Shias in Pakistan have been the favourite target of al
Qaeda affiliates and a few hundreds of them have perished at the hands of Taliban
terrorists with the state taking little action to curb them.
On Thursday, the day before the attacks the
ISIS released a video in Syria showing the execution of 12 men said to belong
to the rival jihadi groups - al Qaeda and Jaysh Al-Islam - after parading them
before the camera. Probably this is to send a message to an al Qaeda's Syrian
affiliate Nusra Front which had scored some battle field success in Syria.
Their relationship with ISIS had been uneasy after the proclamation of the
Caliphate. So probably the time for an overt conflict between the two jihadi
groups is nearing.
The al Qaeda had recently been stealing a
bit of jihadi thunder in the global limelight with victories in Yemen and
Somalia through its affiliate groups Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
and AL Shabab respectively. Of course, in Afghanistan, the Taliban attack on
the parliament comes in the wake of its summer offensive in Kuduz province
indicating the shape of things to come in a place near India. So we may
consider the Friday attacks as ISIS' assertion of power over Islamic world to feed
its global propaganda.
If this power struggle between the two
jihadi groups is joined in earnest in al Qaeda’s home ground in Pakistan and
across South Asia, the danger of India facing renewed jihadi terror attack is real.
With two Sharifs– Nawaz and Raheel – seething with anger against India,
Pakistan may well provide the political backdrop for it.
Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailO
