US’ Country Reports
on Terrorism 2014 reveal three disturbing trends that go against our national
interest
There are
three disturbing trends brought out in the latest Country Report on Terrorism 2014 released by
the US State Department on June 19, 2015 that affect India’s national interest.
The first is the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) as world’s number one jihadi terror
group and its impact on South Asia; the continuing doublespeak of the U.S. on
Pakistan’s state sponsored terrorism; and the existence of the overseas network
of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Tigers (LTTE) and the financial support it
enjoys.
According to the
report the ISIS’ unprecedented spread of brutality and its ability to recruit
foreign fighters and use the social media to inspire “lone wolf” attacks have
helped it to “supplant” al Qaeda as the leading global terrorist group. To
substantiate it, the report says “the prominence of the threat once posed by
core al Qaeda diminished in 2014” and avers the significant losses of its core
leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan “the AQ leadership appeared to lose
momentum as the self-styled leader of the global movement” to the ISIS. It
attributed it to the ISIS’ “rapid expansion and proclamation of a Caliphate.”
Of course, ISIS has
successfully wrested the allegiance of the affiliates of AQ from the parent
body, particularly the nominal allegiance of Boko Haram – branded as the most
active terror group in the world by the US. The Islamic State has also managed
to make successful inroads into South Asia attracting a small number of Indians
among the 16,000 foreigners who have flocked to fight in Syria. It remains
potentially most dangerous group in India’s Jihadi terrorist landscape.
The report says “A number of these attacks were planned and
launched from safe havens in Pakistan. Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)
provided security throughout most of Afghanistan as the transition to full
Afghan leadership on security continued and U.S. and Coalition Forces (CF)
continued to draw down during 2014. The ANSF and CF, in partnership, took
aggressive action against terrorist elements in Afghanistan, especially in
Kabul, and in many of the eastern and northern provinces.”
The resurgence of
Taliban terror attacks comes at a time when the newly elected Afghan President
Ashraf Ghani entered into an entente cordiale with Pakistan to fight Taliban
terrorism (though the Taliban continues enjoy sanctuaries in Pakistan) and
China in preference to India as strategic partner for his country though India
had been a time-tested friend and partner of Afghanistan all these years.
After the exit of
Hamid Karzai as President of Afghanistan, India has already pruned its mega
$10.8 billion steel Hajigek iron ore mine development and infrastructure
project conceived in November 2011 to just $2.9 billion for a 1.25 million ton
per year steel plant 120 MW power plant. India has also revived its plans to
further develop the Chabahar port in Iran in a joint deal with Iran to provide
a strategic link to Afghanistan and Central Asia by passing Karachi and as a
strategic counterpoise to China-aided Gwadar port in Pakistan. These strategic
plans of India could be jeopardized with the worsening terrorist situation in
Afghanistan as perhaps for the first time India is virtually excluded in its strategic
reckoning.
The US report
should not lull India into underestimating the Taliban threat though the ISIS
is riding the crest of Jihadi popularity. Yesterday’s daring Taliban terrorist
attack on Afghanistan parliament while in session is a strong reminder that jihadi
terror threat, regardless of its brand, remains undiminished in South Asia. In
fact the jihadi terror threat has increased in Afghanistan; according to a UN
report in the first four months this year, in Afghanistan 3000 civilians have
been killed or injured in jihadi terror attacks, up 16 percent for the same
period last year. In particular, Kabul high security zone has become more
vulnerable to targeted attacks against foreigners and embassies.
Though the Tehrik e
Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had suffered setbacks due to Pakistan army operations
last year, the HQN a Taliban affiliate continues to be a powerful entity. In September 2014, AQ leader Zawahiri in a
video announced the creation of a separate wing for India including Kashmir to
wage Jihad. AQ wants to portray Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an enemy of
Islam.
And India-specific terror
group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) which carried out th attack on Indian parliament on
December 13, 2001 and the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai remains intact and be
ready to operate with impunity against India from bases in Pakistan. Despite
all the “Aman ki aasha” of well wishers in India and Pakistan, the Pak
government is either unwilling to bite the bullet or powerless to curb the use
of Pakistan as a base for terrorist attacks on India.
The US report on
India said
“India remained a target of terrorist attacks, including operations launched by
Maoist insurgents and domestic and transnational groups. The level of terrorist
violence was substantially unchanged from 2013.” Though it referred to the AQ’s
announcement of the establishment of a new branch in the Indian subcontinent,
it pussy-footed Pakistan’s culpability saying “Indian authorities continued to
blame Pakistan for supporting terrorists operating in Jammu and Kashmir.”
Though
the report noted “the Government of India deepened counterterrorism cooperation
with the United States, highlighted by a September 30 Summit between President
Obama and Prime Minister Modi where both sides pledged greater cooperation in
counterterrorism networks and in information sharing” in real term it indicates
no change in the US attitude of ignoring Pakistan as the source of India’s
transnational terrorist threat. This only confirms that regardless of all the
bonhomie and backslapping and talk of counterterrorism cooperation with the US
will perhaps be limited to information sharing and some joint training
activity. India cannot expect the US to help in reining in Pakistan’s use of
terrorism as a strategic tool against India.
Apparently,
the US perceives its national interest is best served by continuing to ignore
Pakistan’s involvement in terrorist activity targeted against India. The moral
of the story is India has to fight its war on Jihadi terrorism and deal with
Pakistan on its own terms to serve its national interest. Nothing more, nothing
less.
Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO
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