Sri Lanka’s unbalanced 2015 scorecard

Col R Hariharan

The year 2015 would go down in Sri Lanka’s history as one of the most eventful years. It saw the fall of the two-term president Mahinda Rajapaksa; the man  who vanquished Prabhakaran and the LTTE in the Eelam War in 2009 could not overcome the most unlikely political duo - Rajapaksa’s close aide and Sri Lanka Freedom Party(SLFP)’s senior leader Maithripala Sirisena and the opposition United National Party’s veteran leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.

They teamed up to strategise the defeat of Rajapaksa twice: first in the presidential race and then in the general election when Rajapaksa tried to bounce back into national reckoning. 

It would be facile to dismiss the Maithripala-Ranil (M&R) combine’s victory as Rajapaksa’s own making. The duo had strategized Rajapaksa’s defeat with an attractive game plan that had widespread appeal particularly for the sections marginalized by Rajapaksa. So it was no wonder that they ganged up not merely to defeat Rajapaksa but reform governance and accountability all round.

The game plan had an ambitious 100-day agenda ranging from electoral reforms to restructuring the presidential system, improving law and order, toning up the sagging economy, cull endemic corruption and last but not least bring to book Rajapaksas and their cronies for alleged misdeeds including corruption and misuse of office.

Tamil and Muslim minorities joined by liberal sections of society and working class voted in large numbers to dethrone Rajapaksa. This has exploded the myth of Sinhala Buddhist right wing dictating the political fortunes in Sri Lanka elections. Of course, the Sinhala Buddhist loyalists probably voted en masse (around 48 percent votes) to support Rajapaksa. But the whole conduct of violence-free elections and the seamless change of guard at Temple Trees thereafter belied predictions of chaos and mayhem that would follow with the exit of Rajapaksa. This gives hopes for Sri Lanka democracy; despite its warts it is safe and functional in the hands of the people.

But that may not be enough; peoples’ expectations from the M&R government are very high. How did it fair in 2015 would be a pertinent question. Of course, it would not be fair to answer the question as the government has not completed even one whole year in office. In any case, many key initiatives continue to be works in progress or thoughts in contemplation.

But its 2015 performance scorecard gives a fair idea of things done and not done. It also indicates the priorities for 2016.

M&R strategy

The Mahinda-Ranil duo’s power sharing appears to be far from a marriage of convenience; despite the lure of office and power, they have managed to keep their party flocks to work together to run a national unity government. It is to their credit that they managed to do this despite repeated attempts by their own ambitious party leaders and rank and file to retard the process.

On the flip side there is a jumbo cabinet of over 100 assorted ministers, reminiscent of Rajapaksa days. Bloated ministries seem to have come to stay in the nation of jumbos setting an unhealthy precedent for the future. Bloated bodies take time to translate thought into action; so it is not surprising there is more talk than action and result on some of the key issues. This situation is unlikely to improve as the ruling coalition parties with disparate agendas seem to be interested in pulling down each other in the power play rather than unite to speed up the reform process.

Structural reforms

After resorting to band aid enactments to change the electoral system, prune the powers of executive president to improvehis accountability to parliament, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe has taken up the complex task of drafting a new constitution. According to him it would address the three issues of devolution, electoral system and alternative to the executive presidency.

Leaders of parties in parliament have been consulted and provision is being made to receive the views of the people. However, the two major parties - the UNP and SLFP – have strong conceptual differences on core issues due to internal and external compulsions which could delay a consensus on the form and content of the new constitution. Similarly, the contentious issue of devolution of powers which triggers strong ethnic and religious sentiments could prove problematic.

Minority issues

Though it is nearly three decades since Tamil separatist insurgency ended its bitter memories continue to haunt all sections of society. Rajapaksa’s political expedience of keeping the bogey of revival of Tamil Tiger terrorism to further his constituency  rather than speeding up the healing process sustained suspicion and friction between the estranged communities. Similarly, LTTE’s overseas remnants trying to keep the embers of separatism played upon by sections of Tamil polity on both sides of the Palk Strait to serve their interests gave credence to Rajapaksa’s Tamil Eelam bogey.

This attitude seemed to have conditioned Rajapaksa government’s approach to handling a whole range of issues relating to Tamil minority. These range from rehabilitation to human rights violations including alleged war crimes, custodial killings, disappearances and  stalling of the dialogue process with the Tamil polity.

On the other hand M&R regime has shown greater sensitivity to Tamil grievances. It acknowledged these shortcomings and has tried to remove minor pinpricks that had irritated the Northern Provincial council government for long. It has attempted to introduce greater transparency into the investigative process. For instance the UN Human Rights Investigation report on alleged war crimes as well as the reports of the Udalagama that and the Paranagama commissions were placed before the parliament. The Udalagama commission investigated 15 incidents of alleged serious violations of human rights since August 1, 2005; the Paranagama commission inquired into allegations Sri Lanka army’s war crimes and called for an independent judicial investigation into them. But further follow up action on the findings is slow in coming.

However, some of the other major grievances remain unattended. For instance, even after six years since the war ended, 12000 families are in make shift arrangement in Jaffna as their lands have not been released by the army. Over 250 former LTTE members are still rotting in jails without trial not unlike the American incarceration of Taliban extremists in Guantanamo Bay for over a decade and a half.  And the government decision to resort to domestic inquiry to look into war crimes allegations continues to remain a contentious issue among Tamils.

No progress has been made in devolving powers to Tamils; it is likely to be further delayed as it is likely to be subsumed in the new constitution making process.  However,  gestures like replacing the governor of Northern Province who was a retired general with a more acceptable candidate and making  the TNA leader P Sampanthan leader of the opposition in parliament shows the government is not averse to incremental improvement in the situation.  The government efforts to reach out to the Tamil Diaspora to participate in developing war affected areas appear to have had some success.

Foreign relations

A special effort has been made to repair the fractured relations with the US and the West. Its success was seen in their mellowed approach in the UN Human Rights Council when Sri Lanka war crimes issue came up for discussion. The government has also taken corrective action in response to India’s security concerns over the increasing tilt in Sri Lanka policies in favour of China adopted during the Rajapaksa days. At the same time, the government had been careful in maintaining an even handed attitude to China particularly as it has emerged as the biggest investor.

The government’s visible action to improve its human rights record in response to EU concerns in the past, have increased the chances of it regaining the GSP+ duty concessions for its exports to the EU.

Economic recovery

In keeping with the UNP’s strong commitment to economic and social sector reforms, deregulation and private sector development, the government’s economic policy is to be based on social market economy. This marks a departure from President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s model which halted the privatization process and launched several new companies and grandiose projects under the state.

In keeping with the policy, the budget 2016 aims at achieving two quantitative targets: reduce the high budget deficit to 3.5 per cent by 2020 and transform the tax structure which is skewed towards indirect tax to reduce its contribution from 80 per cent of the revenue to 60 per cent and increase direct taxes contribution from 20 per cent to 40 per cent.  The moot point is can Sri Lanka achieve these ambitious economic objectives?  

It is not going to be easy as Sri Lanka is heavily dependent upon external resources. Foreign resources will only flow only if investor confidence is improved. Only sustained structural reform process can tone up the system. Public expenditure needs to be disciplined and endemic corruption has to be tamed.  Can this government do it?

Anti corruption drive

There had been only limited success into alleged cases of massive corruption. Though inquiries into misuse of power and corruption have continued into various allegations ranging from mega projects to money laundering started during the Rajapaksa days, the government has not been able to find clinching evidence to take legal action against the Rajapaksas. Even the reopened investigations into the murders of the rugby player Thajudeen and cartoonist Prageeth Eknaligoda have not been able to decisively link them to the Rajapaksas. Perhaps the government is wary of applying too much pressure on the former president for fear of strong backlash from his party loyalists both within and outside the government. These investigations could continue in the better part of 2016 to bring them to a logical closure.

Conclusion

It is commendable the Maithripala-Ranil duo have managed to cruise through the troubled political waters to achieve some success. However, they need to speed up the momentum of reforms. The acid test is going to the drafting of a new constitution to meet the aspirations of the people who voted them to power. And it is not going to be easy to evolve a consensus through conflicting pulls and pressures. We may see more and more of it in 2016.

Sri Lanka’s economy is heavily dependent upon the international scene likely to continue to be precariously perched between the desire for development and the burden of debt servicing. This balancing exercise is likely to continue in 2016. Sri Lanka can take some consolation that it enjoys greater goodwill than Rajapaksa ever did. That could come in handy in times of economic crisis..

Overall, the government seems to have scored an unviable 4.5 in a scale of 9 for performance in 2015. It will have to speed up its systems and ponderous bureaucracy to clock better results in 2016. There is no other option lest it squanders public confidence reposed in them. 

Written on December 31, 2015

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, January 2015 issue

www.security-risks.com

[Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail:haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info]