NSG may be a failure for Modi, but MTCR is a big success for India

New Delhi can now access state of the art technology drone and missile technology systems which have been denied all along

POLITICS | 6-minute read | 27-06-2016

COL R HARIHARAN @COLHARI2

As expected, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come in for criticism from friends and foes alike for putting his (or to some extent India’s) political prestige on the block on the line in the failed bid to gain admission to Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) at Seoul. Perhaps Modi could have avoided the heightened expectations created by media hype over his highly visible international campaign on the NSG issue.

Probably, Modi could not help it because that is his signature leadership style, as distinct as the “Modi jacket” he wears. So his failures will always be seen larger than his successes because people revel more in leader’s failure than success. And media cannot be faulted for its shrill coverage because their pitch is for instant gratification rather than eloquent analyses. 

By now, Modi must be accustomed to the brickbats he receives from a section of the so-called intellectual class for whatever he does or does not.

So India’s failure at NSG is seen by many as prime minister’s leadership failure. However, that would be ignoring the dynamic strategic environment in which the PM has been operating.

In this environment, around the same time when the NSG said nay, India was admitted to another exclusive club - the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) - which is more important to national security than the NSG.

The 35-mmber club controls the spread of proliferation of unmanned delivery systems (missile, unmanned aerial vehicles etc) for carrying nuclear weapons.

In simple terms, now India can access state of the art drone and missile technology systems which have been denied all along. This will speed up the development of long range intercontinental ballistic missiles.

India can also export its missiles like the BrahMos to other countries. India has already indicated that it would be exporting BrahMos to Vietnam and a few other nations are said to be interested in procuring it.

India’s admission is even more significant as China’s application to join the MTCR made in 2004 has not been accepted so far because its export control standards have not satisfied the MTCR members.

However, India’s failure at NSG meet overshadowed its success on MTCR.

Moreover, when the first announcement of India’s admission to the MTCR was made, Modi’s detractors saw it as the outcome of a deal to release two Italian Marines facing prosecution for murder on bail, than noting its strategic implications. That is the kind of strategic discourse we have in this country.

The changes in the security environment in our neighbourhood are happening at various levels: India-US-China trilateral relations on the one hand and India-Pakistan-China on the other, and India’s assertive relationship building in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries.

At the same time, President Xi Jinping has emerged as the most powerful of agent of change in China after Deng Xiaoping led the nation’s recovery from the disastrous consequences of the Cultural Revolution. 

Xi has emerged as the unchallenged leader of China in firm control of all the three of pillars support: the Communist Party of China (CPC), the government and the Peoples Liberation Army. 

He is working hard to realize his Chinese dream by vigorously promoting the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative to build strategic road, rail, pipeline and maritime links to South, West and Central Asia as well as Indian Ocean Region.

This is progressively increasing China’s access to the huge markets and mineral and petroleum resources of Asia. He has notched up several successes in South Asia and Indian Ocean region, in India’s traditional areas of influence. 

President Xi is also trying to give China a prominent international profile in Asia. In the Af-Pak region he sees China as a peace maker between Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban, the fountainhead that provides political and religious moorings for Islamic terrorists trying to destabilise the region.

China has embarked upon the ambitious $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (EPEC) project that aims to develop road, rail, pipeline and maritime connectivity between the Xinjiang region of China and Pakistan.

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In the coming years we can expect China to ​become Pakistan’s indispensable strategic partner on India’s western front. It will also be​ lodged  in the country’s economic and political mainstream.

It is in this complex ​strategic environment Prime Minister Modi has been leading from the front to energise India-US relations to make them multifaceted, with emphasis on strategic relations. The US has reciprocated it with equal vigour.

This has slowly changed the US’ strategic security hyphenation of Asia-Pacific into Indo-Pacific, in silent recognition of India adding substance to US security interests in the region extending from Indian Ocean to the Pacific.

While the US promoted India’s candidature of the NSG vigorously, at another level China was becoming increasingly paranoid over the US navy’s aggressive presence in South China Sea and increased level of US security cooperation with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members locked in dispute with China over the ownership of islets in the neighbourhood.

The joint exercise of the navies of India, US and Japan off the coast of Japan recently probably only added to China’s suspicion about India’s professed peaceful intentions towards its northern neighbour.

In this environment, it was probably too much to expect Xi to oblige India by allowing it to join the NSG. Despite all the jhoola diplomacy of Modi and friendly overtures from China, there should be no illusion about taking forward our strategic dialogue with China.

President Xi supported by the CPC and PLA will test every strategic move of India. It would be a loss of face for him to equate China with India when he is aiming to beat the US at global level.

Perhaps, if India comes round to wholeheartedly support the OBOR, China might soften its stand on other issues but never relent on core interests and that includes nuclear equation.

We should put our bid for NSG membership in cold storage for now.

We should have confidence in our strengths and build upon them rather than wasting our efforts​ which have​ the makings of failure. 

President Xi has succeeded in embarrassing Modi; we should read the writing on the wall and realistically calibrate our relations with PRC on the long term.

It does not matter India had failed in its effort at NSG; but it has succeeded in getting into MT​CR. 

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The NSG experience has exposed the true dimensions of our strategic priorities despite the confusing verbiage China had put out on the issue. So it should be treated as a learning experience.​

As the cliché goes forewarned is forewarned; and Modi, the shrewd man he is, probably has learnt his Beijing lesson from this exercise.

#Nuclear Suppliers Group,  #India-China Ties,  #Narendra Modi

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/nuclear-suppliers-group-narendra-modi-mtcr-india-china-ties-xi-jinping/story/1/11419.html

Raghuram Rajan’s inglorious exit shows Modi’s weakness

Raghuram Rajan’s inglorious exit shows Modi’s weakness

The RBI governor, with his impeccable credentials, had embarked on his own version of Swach Bharat - cleaning up the banking mess. 

POLITICS| 5-minute read | 19-06-2016

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2

The decision of Dr Raghuram Rajan to quit at the end of his tenure as the top honcho of the Reserve Bank of India can be interpreted in many ways. I am not one of the votaries to say that without Rajan at the helm the RBI would come to a grinding halt.

Indian economy is too big to be managed by a lone chief heading the nation’s central bank; but the RBI chief adds credibility to Modi’s growth story. And this is what Rajan did with his impeccable credentials by embarking on his own version of Swach Bharat - cleaning up the banking mess. 

But India would definitely miss Rajan’s unique ability to read the macroeconomic indicators to forecast any looming doom. Dr Rajan gained global recognition when he foresaw the US economic downturn three years in advance, though it was pooh-poohed at that time.   

And probably this was the reason Dr Manmohan Singh brought him towards the fag end of his tenure as prime minister when the economy was on a free fall and the banks were on the brink of collapse.

So it is not going to be easy for Rajan’s successor to establish himself in his new job and convince the stakeholders that he can do better than Rajan. The Modi government could face its fall out in the coming months.  

But the way Dr Rajan’s decision to quit came about showed up the flaws in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership style. The singular lack of finesse in handling it reflected Modi’s inability or reluctance to defuse potentially embarrassing situations that reflect poor governance.

Is it a leadership flaw or does it reflect Modi’s difficulties in managing the BJP leadership, which seem to be bent upon creating more embarrassing situations for the Prime Minister? In fact it seems to be helping the desperate Congress opposition more opportunities to flog the ruling party.

Some of the government appointees, probably chosen more for their loyalty to the party than ability, have brought more embarrassment than glory to both their jobs and the government with their lack of finesse in handling developing crises situations. 

We saw it in the Film and Television Institute and the Central Board of Film Certification; probably we will be seeing it again in the National Institute of Fashion Technology (NIFT) following the appointment of Chetan Chauhan, a former test cricketer and two-time BJP MP as chairman.

This shows despite all the talk of national vision, BJP like the Congress, seems to be looking at all issues only in narrow political perspective.

                                                                                          

As the Prime Minister, Modi has every right to decide upon the appointment of RBI governor. There is nothing wrong if he felt there was a need to replace Rajan at the end of his tenure because ultimately the buck stops on the PM’s table.

Modi, one of the most articulate leaders India ever had who is usually vociferous on many issues, kept mum when the one-man demolition army Subramanian Swamy demanded the sacking of Rajan and went to town questioning his integrity. So it would be logical to conclude that Modi probably wanted to replace Rajan.

But it is disappointing to see Modi not coming out in public against the character assassination of Rajan, who as the governor of the RBI was trying in his own way to realise the PM’s development narrative.  

Had Modi done so, it would have only added to his public esteem and credibility as a leader who stands by those who serve him in good faith.

The job of selecting the next RBI governor has been entrusted to a committee headed by the Cabinet Secretary. It is not clear whether it reflects the PM’s lack of confidence in decision making or spreading the responsibility for an important decision to his team?

Both are understandable as a PM cannot be an expert in every field to do the right thing every time. But to do so reflects the ability to discern critical issues. Does Modi consider the appointment of the right man as RBI governor as critical to his development story?  

I remember a faux pas by another forceful and articulate PM: Indira Gandhi. She had difficulty in picking the grain from the chaff; her 20-point programme promoted with a lot of fanfare forty years ago during emergency is a prime example.

It was a snake oil salesman’s concoction based on the profound observation of Barnum (of the famous Ringling brothers circus Barnum and Bailey). He said “there is a sucker born every minute.”

Indira Gandhi’s 20-point programme was to sell her socialist ways; it mixed the mundane with the absurd and included raising the income tax exemption limit to Rs 8000 from Rs 6,500, confiscation of properties of smugglers and steps to bring down prices of essential commodities.

At that time the ministry of defence in its enthusiasm to promote the programme asked the Army to brief the soldiers about it every day.  It reached ridiculous levels when as I as commanding officer had the thankless task of explaining the 20-point programme to my troops.

When I was having a tough time hemming and hawing on it in my bad Hindi, I was left speechless when a jawan asked me how any reduction of income tax or confiscating property of smugglers will affect him or his family living in rural Rajasthan.

Raghuram Rajan probably had little option than to quit after the loud silence from the government and BJP leadership when the media went to town with Swamy's serial fusillades against the RBI governor. 

It was his honourable way of saying ‘thank you, enough is enough’’ to the Modi government. But his slightly inglorious exit shows that India and Modi still lack finesse in governance and in doing things gracefully.

#Subramanian Swamy, #Reserve Bank of India, #Narendra Modi, #Raghuram Rajan

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/raghuram-rajan-narendra-modi-reserve-bank-of-india-subramanian-swamy-interest-rates-economy-finance-ministry-banking-sector/story/1/11271.html

Orlando gunman’s attack leaves many hard questions for America

Orlando gunman’s attack leaves many hard questions for America 

The White House has to clean up the glorification of violence in the social environment.

POLITICS | 5-minute read | 13-06-2016

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2 

The tragic death of 50 people and wounding of 53 others by a lone American born gunman who went on a shooting spree in a gay night club in Orlando, USA deserves universal condemnation.

The carnage carried out by Omar Mir Siddique Mateen, 29 years old security guard of Afghan origin born in the US will no doubt be analysed threadbare in the land of the free that has some of the most draconian laws and revels in stories of violence.

The worst act of terror and hate, second only to the Al Qaeda's 9/11 attack, raises many questions on fighting Jihadi terrorism, organising national security against terrorism, tightening gun control laws and recognising terrorism for what it is and not allowing political or religious concerns to cloud society's response to terrorism.

All of them are relevant to India as well, as it has been figuring consistently among the top ten countries affected by terrorism.

The most disturbing aspect of Orlando killing is that the FBI had earlier investigated the killer three times for suspected connection with the IS - the two-alphabet brand for the Islamic State, world's number one Jihadi terrorist group. In spite of that American laws allowed him to hold a licensed firearm and even to buy a semi-automatic rifle a few days before he went on his shooting spree.

This shows that it is not enough to have the FBI, touted as the world's best security agency, armed with enormous powers to eavesdrop and invade into anyone's private space.

Fighting terrorist violence is a never ending process. Despite Orlando shoot out, FBI remains the most effective instrument of State because security agencies discourage the terrorist from having a free run and at best prevent most acts of terrorism but not all.

Individual terrorist acts are the most difficult to prevent and that's why Jihadi terrorists are increasingly using it to destabilise societies in many parts of the world - from France to Afghanistan, Pakistan and disturbingly more and more in Bangladesh.

We have porous borders through which lakhs of Bangladeshis are living illegally in our midst already, not only in Assam, but even in Delhi. Most of them are no different from many of us: poor, hardworking and generally law abiding because so few of them have been involved in extremist acts here. But there is a resurgence of Jihadi terrorism in Bangladesh now with a few extremists regularly killing innocent people because they are Hindus, Christians or those who denounce religious terrorists.

The state there is yet to get its act right though over 3000 people have been rounded up sending further tremors in the polarised society. Are we ready to face its social and political fallout if it spills over here?

How are we going to tackle it in our own society with all its wrinkles of hates - caste, religion,  class and political origin - is going to be the biggest challenge for us in the coming months.

And the signs are not encouraging if we go by the state's response to the massive armed confrontation in Mathura recently; the government had  all the instruments for success: adequate advance intelligence, enough legal authority and sufficient armed policemen and yet it botched up because its mind was clouded by other considerations.

I am not confident other states would do any better if they face Mathura-like situation because political considerations seem to be governing our counter-terrorism discourse.

Sordid details coming out now in the media on how we tried to use the worst ever Jihadi terrorist act - the 26/11 Lashkar attack in Mumbai - to settle political score is most disturbing to the people who aspire nothing more than survival in some comfort.

The other disturbing phenomenon in our midst is sloth in whatever we do. And it's a national ailment that cannot be wished away.

So we wait for someone to reform policing though I am told as many as 13 police commissions' recommendations are maturing for years in the pickle jars of home ministry.

Our attitude to fighting terrorism needs to undergo a thorough makeover. Whenever suspected acts of extremism are reported scoop artists no doubt aided by netas look for reasons to disprove them.

As a result we saw the sad story of police being asked to prosecute one of the top guns of the Intelligence Bureau in Gujarat because someone high in the power train decided to rewrite the action plan. 

But we have to recognise results achieved also despite these shackles. It gives us hope to see the much-maligned police recently hauling up 17 suspected Jihadi extremists before the court of law.

The biggest learning for the US from Orlando is it has to clean up the glorification of violence in the social environment. Otherwise it cannot cut down repetition of mindless acts like Orlando violence or terrorism.

 Though to say so does not help the victims who would consider it a pompous statement, the question is why such gruesome acts of violence do not happen in Canada, another land of immigrants just across the US border to the north?

In fact Canada has one of the lowest rates of gun-related violence unlike the US which has the dubious distinction at the other end of the highest violence of similar kind.

This has an Indian context as well because our enforcement of arms act is suspect and illegal gun making is a cottage industry.

I remember when my point on this was disputed in a civil-military conference at chief secretary’s level in Kolkata, I sent my man to buy from the bazaar a pipe gun that fired a single shot for Rs 65 and produced it before my session ended.

I hope things have improved now and not merely the price of an illegal weapon in Kolkata because it is becoming a hotspot for acts of violence.

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/gun-control-law-orlando-shooting-second-amendment-pulse-nightclub/story/1/11166.html

Time ‘Amma’ gave a positive tweak to her Sri Lanka discourse

Col R Hariharan

Recently, even as Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena was in New Delhi on a two-day visit to India to talk to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in Chennai the Tamil Nadu chief minister Ms Jayalalitha was celebrating her party’s unprecedented victory in the assembly elections belying pollsters who predicted a close call. There is a seamless connection between the two events because the woes of Sri Lanka Tamils is the grist of Tamil Nadu political discourse from the time of Sri Lanka’s infamous anti-Tamil pogrom in 1983. Regardless of what was happening in Sri Lanka’s never ending conflict, for Tamil Nadu politicians Prabhakaran’s armed struggle for Tamil Eelam was the focus.

The latest assembly election was no exception though the Sri Lanka Tamil issue was on a lower priority in campaign presumably because the Tamil Tigers have been defeated and Mahinda Rajapaksa, the man who defeated them was no more in power.  But it did not make a difference to some parties like the Naam Tamizhar party, known for its strong devotion to Prabhakaran, campaigned with his posters on display. Ms  Jayalalitha was more specific; speaking at an election rally in Tiruchi said she would continue to work for ushering in a separate Tamil Eelam and enable Tamils live with full freedom and self respect.

The Tamil Nadu chief minister’s statement created a flutter among Sinhala political and nationalist lobbies across the Palk Straits. However, answering a media query President Sirisena brushed aside its importance, pointing out the context of the election campaign in which it was made. He said one need not get exercised over it as generally politicians were known for making a number of statements during elections. That is true. But the Tamil Nadu chief minister, affectionately named ‘Amma’ by her devoted followers who fall at her feet, is known for making good of her election promises. Her campaign was spun around this USP. This time also she did just that: immediately after swearing in, she signed a slew of orders to deliver the goodies she promised the people. But the question is can she deliver on her promised to continue to work for creating an independent Tamil Eelam?

In a way President Sirisena’s contention was correct; Sri Lanka formed only a small part of the Tamil Nadu chief minister in her virulent focus on the DMK and her bête noir Karunanidhi, its leader. Her statement on Tamil Eelam was in the context of her accusation of the DMK leader betraying the interests of Tamils not only in the state but also in Sri Lanka. Apart from speaking in support of Tamil Eelam, Ms Jayalalitha also said her party would press the Centre to provide dual citizenship to Sri Lankan Tamils in Tamil Nadu so that they could get employment opportunities easily. She added that Sri Lanka Tamils living here should be repatriated with their full consent, only after complete normalcy and full protection was ensured for them back home.  

At the political level, Sri Lankan Tamil polity is not looking for support for Tamil Eelam from Amma. Typical was the reaction of Sri Lanka’s Tamil National Alliance (TNA) spokesman and MP Sumanthiran to Amma’s statement. He appreciated her for the emotional support for Tamils and hoped she would turn it to promote the Tamil cause in a constructive way. He added that the Lankan Tamils no longer demand a separate Tamil Eelam but want a political solution in line with their expressed aspirations in a united Sri Lanka. 

Not all Sri Lanka Tamil parties vocalized their stand on Tamil Eelam because they have been thriving on the issue. But in TNA, it is Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) with the largest following that calls the shot. Despite pulls and pressures within, TNA is a little more pragmatic and seems to have accepted the political reality after the defeat of LTTE.  However, Northern Province chief minister CV Wigneswaran who is in power with TNA support does not share the TNA’s view. He feels the sincerity of the Sirisena government to do justice to Tamils is suspect. He was apparently elated with the Tamil Nadu chief minister’s statement.

Ms Jayalalitha’s reply to the Northern Province chief minister's letter of congratulations on her victory indicated how she was likely take up the Sri Lanka Tamil issue further. Thanking him for the good wishes, she said she would continue to make efforts to ensure justice is done to “Sri Lankan Tamils of the Northern Province, through the government of India.”

So the iron lady, known for her shrewd political understanding, knows the way the cookie is crumbling in India-Sri Lanka relations ever since both President Sirisena and Prime Minister Modi came to power almost at the same time. The writing on the wall is clear: Tamil Nadu’s power play that had shackled India’s Sri Lanka policy in the past is gone. Prime Minister Modi’s BJP won a majority in parliament in 2014 elections just as Sirisena did with a promise of yahapalanaya (good governance) and equitable treatment for Tamils who voted him to power.  Both the leaders are rewriting their narratives and synergising their strengths to build better relations, for the mutual benefit of their people.

Amma is in a unique position to give a positive tweak to Tamil Nadu’s negative discourse on Sri Lanka that has lost its relevance. The immediate problems of Tamils are survival: food, a place to live and making a living. And that includes thousands of widows and 12000 Tamil youth, who had followed their leader into the war and freed now.

As the Tamil Nadu chief minister has promised, she can bring back dignity to their lives by a few things that are within her realm. A few ideas that come to mind are opening up the engineering colleges which have few takers to Sri Lanka Tamils on the same fee structure as our students; evolve a holistic plan with industrialists to invest in Tamil areas to start businesses that provide gainful employment to thousands of educated students and women. These actions would add to her popular image of doing what she promised. And that would bring back the smile on the faces of Sri Lanka Tamils and people of Tamil Nadu would feel they were contributing meaningfully to their brethren in distress.

 [Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force from 1987 to 90. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ] 

Courtesy: Deccan Chronicle June 8, 2016 http://www.deccanchronicle.com/ which published an edited version of this article.

http://col.hariharan.info/2016/06/time-amma-gave-positive-tweak-to-her.html

Sri Lanka and Ms Jayalalitha’s victory

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena landed in New Delhi in May on a two-day visit to India while returning from UK after attending anti-corruption global conference organized by an international NGO and meeting the British Prime Minister David Cameron. 

India-Sri Lanka relations have scaled new heights after the regime change in both countries. Narendra Modi with a majority in parliament for the Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP) is trying to provide a different narrative giving priority to build India’s relations with its neighbours. On the other hand, the Sirisena led government has corrected Sri Lanka’s foreign policy skewed in favour of China during the Rajapaksa regime. So there is always a lot of bonhomie whenever leaders of India and Sri Lanka meet and the present visit was no exception.

President Sirisena had a busy schedule in India. He met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi and the two leaders had discussed a number of bilateral issues. According to the Ministry of External Affairs spokesman in New Delhi, “Prime Minister Modi stressed the need to develop a mechanism and find a permanent solution to the issue of fishermen straying into each others’ waters.” The issue of creating a dedicated mechanism had been discussed any number of times but had made no headway so far. So no dramatic breakthrough can be expected.

Another polemical issue of Sri Lanka - the Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) - did not come up for discussion, presumably because it was still a work in progress. In fact, the ball is in Sri Lanka's court on this subject as the government is still weighing in the economic benefits of ETCA against the strong nationalist sentiments of sections of society in trade and services which fear an Indian invasion much to their detriment if the agreement came in force.

Sri Lanka President also visited the Buddhist holy site of Sanchi to attend the ceremony to unveil the statue of Anagarika Dharmapala, who revived Theravada Buddhism in Sri Lanka 150 years ago. He offered a casket to the Sanchi Vihara to mark the occasion. He also attended the Kumbh Mela festival in Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh along with Prime Minister Modi and other dignitaries.

Even as he was visiting India, the Tamil Nadu chief minister Ms Jayalalitha was celebrating her party’s unprecedented victory in the Tamil Nadu state assembly elections which gave her a second five-year term  in power. Though there is apparently no connection between the two events, Ms Jayalalitha statement during the run up to the elections brought home the realities of Tamil Nadu power play on Sri Lanka which had shackled India’s Sri Lanka policy in the past. Speaking at an election rally in Tiruchi last month, she said she would continue to work for ushering in a separate Tamil Eelam.

The Tamil Nadu chief minister’s statement created a flutter among Sinhala political and nationalist lobbies. However, President Sirisena brushed aside its importance, pointing out the context of the election campaign in which it was made. Answering a media query soon after Ms Jayalalitha made the statement, Sirisena said one need not get exercised over it as generally politicians were known for making a number of statements during elections.  

His contention was correct, as Sri Lanka formed only a part of the Tamil Nadu chief minister in her tirade against the DMK during an election rally in Tiruchi. She accused her bête noir the DMK leader Karunanidhi of betraying the interests of Tamils not only in the state but also in Sri Lanka. She said she would continue to work for ushering in Tamil Eelam and enable Tamils live with full freedom and self respect. Ms Jayalalitha also said her party would press the Centre to provide dual citizenship to Sri Lankan Tamils in Tamil Nadu so that they could get employment opportunities easily. It was the stand of her government, she added, that Sri Lanka Tamils living here should be repatriated with their full consent, only after complete normalcy and full protection was ensured for them back home.  

But in Sri Lanka with different power centres at play, it is difficult to brush aside her statement on support to usher in Tamil Eelam. This is understandable as India’s Sri Lanka policy had for long been hostage to Tamil Nadu political parties’ stand on Sri Lanka Tamil issue. The reality is in the competitive political scene in both Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka such remarks would not be allowed to fade away.  While Sinhala nationalist lobbies became shrill in their comments, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the main opposition party, which had been trying to work out a political equation in constitution making with the ruling united front government, articulated its stand in clear terms.

The TNA spokesman and MP Sumanthiran pointed out the Lankan Tamils no longer demand a separate Tamil Eelam but want a political solution in line with their expressed aspirations in a united Sri Lanka. He appreciated Ms Jayalalitha for her emotional support for Tamils and hoped she would turn it to promote the Tamil cause in a constructive way. But not all constituent parties of the TNA dare to vocalise their stand on the Eelam issue in such clear cut terms because they have been thriving on the issue. The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), TNA’s major component, is a little more pragmatic and seems to have accepted the political reality after the defeat of LTTE.  However, Northern Province chief minister CV Wigneswaran also does not share the TNA’s view. He feels the sincerity of the Sirisena government to do justice to Tamils is suspect.

How far Ms Jayalalitha would bring to bear her support for Tamil Eelam to impact Modi’s Sri Lanka policy is a question that would interest Sri Lankans more than Indians.  Ms Jayalalitha’s reply to the Northern Province chief minister's letter of congratulations on her victory has in a way indicated how she would take up the Sri Lanka Tamil issue further. She wrote to thank him for the good wishes and said she would continue to take efforts to ensure justice is done to “Sri Lankan Tamils of the Northern Province, through the government of India.” She also reciprocated Wigneswaran’s interest in meeting her and said “we shall meet on a day convenient to both of us.”

Unlike the combative days of the past when she spoke of a ban on trading with Sri Lanka and insistence on referendum to decide on Tamil Eelam, the Tamil Nadu chief minister has indicated that her supportive actions for Tamil issue would be through the government of India. With a tongue in cheek, she has also indicated to Wigneswaran that the Northern Province would be the limits on which he could speak for Tamils. In real terms, this would mean Tamil Nadu acting through the Centre on Tamil issues; in a way that means negotiating her way with New Delhi.

The iron lady of Tamil Nadu weathered many a political storm in her career on Tamil Nadu political stage, because she always thinks one step ahead. She knows Tamil Nadu has to mend its gritty relations with the Centre because Modi, like her, has strong popular support and probably thinks two jumps ahead.  So out of the bouquet of three Sri Lanka issues that affect Tamil Nadu politics, her emphasis is likely to be on the fishermen issue as fishing season has opened now;  justice for Tamils and the Katchtivu sovereignty issue would probably follow in the order of priority. And the Eelam issue would probably used to add spice to her political activism when she chooses.

Written on April 30, 2016

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force from 1987 to 90. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ]

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, May 2016 issue www.security-risks.com published as Sri Lanka perspectives May 2016: Sri Lanka and Ms Jayalalitha's victory