Sri Lanka and Ms Jayalalitha’s victory

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena landed in New Delhi in May on a two-day visit to India while returning from UK after attending anti-corruption global conference organized by an international NGO and meeting the British Prime Minister David Cameron. 

India-Sri Lanka relations have scaled new heights after the regime change in both countries. Narendra Modi with a majority in parliament for the Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP) is trying to provide a different narrative giving priority to build India’s relations with its neighbours. On the other hand, the Sirisena led government has corrected Sri Lanka’s foreign policy skewed in favour of China during the Rajapaksa regime. So there is always a lot of bonhomie whenever leaders of India and Sri Lanka meet and the present visit was no exception.

President Sirisena had a busy schedule in India. He met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi and the two leaders had discussed a number of bilateral issues. According to the Ministry of External Affairs spokesman in New Delhi, “Prime Minister Modi stressed the need to develop a mechanism and find a permanent solution to the issue of fishermen straying into each others’ waters.” The issue of creating a dedicated mechanism had been discussed any number of times but had made no headway so far. So no dramatic breakthrough can be expected.

Another polemical issue of Sri Lanka - the Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) - did not come up for discussion, presumably because it was still a work in progress. In fact, the ball is in Sri Lanka's court on this subject as the government is still weighing in the economic benefits of ETCA against the strong nationalist sentiments of sections of society in trade and services which fear an Indian invasion much to their detriment if the agreement came in force.

Sri Lanka President also visited the Buddhist holy site of Sanchi to attend the ceremony to unveil the statue of Anagarika Dharmapala, who revived Theravada Buddhism in Sri Lanka 150 years ago. He offered a casket to the Sanchi Vihara to mark the occasion. He also attended the Kumbh Mela festival in Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh along with Prime Minister Modi and other dignitaries.

Even as he was visiting India, the Tamil Nadu chief minister Ms Jayalalitha was celebrating her party’s unprecedented victory in the Tamil Nadu state assembly elections which gave her a second five-year term  in power. Though there is apparently no connection between the two events, Ms Jayalalitha statement during the run up to the elections brought home the realities of Tamil Nadu power play on Sri Lanka which had shackled India’s Sri Lanka policy in the past. Speaking at an election rally in Tiruchi last month, she said she would continue to work for ushering in a separate Tamil Eelam.

The Tamil Nadu chief minister’s statement created a flutter among Sinhala political and nationalist lobbies. However, President Sirisena brushed aside its importance, pointing out the context of the election campaign in which it was made. Answering a media query soon after Ms Jayalalitha made the statement, Sirisena said one need not get exercised over it as generally politicians were known for making a number of statements during elections.  

His contention was correct, as Sri Lanka formed only a part of the Tamil Nadu chief minister in her tirade against the DMK during an election rally in Tiruchi. She accused her bête noir the DMK leader Karunanidhi of betraying the interests of Tamils not only in the state but also in Sri Lanka. She said she would continue to work for ushering in Tamil Eelam and enable Tamils live with full freedom and self respect. Ms Jayalalitha also said her party would press the Centre to provide dual citizenship to Sri Lankan Tamils in Tamil Nadu so that they could get employment opportunities easily. It was the stand of her government, she added, that Sri Lanka Tamils living here should be repatriated with their full consent, only after complete normalcy and full protection was ensured for them back home.  

But in Sri Lanka with different power centres at play, it is difficult to brush aside her statement on support to usher in Tamil Eelam. This is understandable as India’s Sri Lanka policy had for long been hostage to Tamil Nadu political parties’ stand on Sri Lanka Tamil issue. The reality is in the competitive political scene in both Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka such remarks would not be allowed to fade away.  While Sinhala nationalist lobbies became shrill in their comments, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the main opposition party, which had been trying to work out a political equation in constitution making with the ruling united front government, articulated its stand in clear terms.

The TNA spokesman and MP Sumanthiran pointed out the Lankan Tamils no longer demand a separate Tamil Eelam but want a political solution in line with their expressed aspirations in a united Sri Lanka. He appreciated Ms Jayalalitha for her emotional support for Tamils and hoped she would turn it to promote the Tamil cause in a constructive way. But not all constituent parties of the TNA dare to vocalise their stand on the Eelam issue in such clear cut terms because they have been thriving on the issue. The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), TNA’s major component, is a little more pragmatic and seems to have accepted the political reality after the defeat of LTTE.  However, Northern Province chief minister CV Wigneswaran also does not share the TNA’s view. He feels the sincerity of the Sirisena government to do justice to Tamils is suspect.

How far Ms Jayalalitha would bring to bear her support for Tamil Eelam to impact Modi’s Sri Lanka policy is a question that would interest Sri Lankans more than Indians.  Ms Jayalalitha’s reply to the Northern Province chief minister's letter of congratulations on her victory has in a way indicated how she would take up the Sri Lanka Tamil issue further. She wrote to thank him for the good wishes and said she would continue to take efforts to ensure justice is done to “Sri Lankan Tamils of the Northern Province, through the government of India.” She also reciprocated Wigneswaran’s interest in meeting her and said “we shall meet on a day convenient to both of us.”

Unlike the combative days of the past when she spoke of a ban on trading with Sri Lanka and insistence on referendum to decide on Tamil Eelam, the Tamil Nadu chief minister has indicated that her supportive actions for Tamil issue would be through the government of India. With a tongue in cheek, she has also indicated to Wigneswaran that the Northern Province would be the limits on which he could speak for Tamils. In real terms, this would mean Tamil Nadu acting through the Centre on Tamil issues; in a way that means negotiating her way with New Delhi.

The iron lady of Tamil Nadu weathered many a political storm in her career on Tamil Nadu political stage, because she always thinks one step ahead. She knows Tamil Nadu has to mend its gritty relations with the Centre because Modi, like her, has strong popular support and probably thinks two jumps ahead.  So out of the bouquet of three Sri Lanka issues that affect Tamil Nadu politics, her emphasis is likely to be on the fishermen issue as fishing season has opened now;  justice for Tamils and the Katchtivu sovereignty issue would probably follow in the order of priority. And the Eelam issue would probably used to add spice to her political activism when she chooses.

Written on April 30, 2016

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force from 1987 to 90. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ]

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, May 2016 issue www.security-risks.com published as Sri Lanka perspectives May 2016: Sri Lanka and Ms Jayalalitha's victory