360o Balochistan – Pakistan’s untold story
Modi’s POK-Balochistan
ploy: gambit or game plan?
DECCAN CHRONICLE | COL R HARIHARAN 21 August
2016
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech
on Independence Day covered a wide range of issues, it was his reference to
Pakistan’s human rights aberrations in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (including
Gilgit Baltistan) and Balochistan that triggered a lot of speculation about a
new Indian narrative on Kashmir.
However, a gambit without a game plane is of
little use as its impact would only be transitory. This was evident when
Pakistan declared that the Indian Prime Minister had crossed the “Red Line” in
his Independence Day address by referring to Pakistan’s internal problem in
Balochistan.
Does that mean Modi is evolving a new game
plan on Kashmir? It may well be a work in progress because a few days before
the Independence Day, Modi had convened an all party meeting to evolve a
consensus on Jammu and Kashmir. So the PM might simply be sending signal to Nawaz Sharif
that India could ‘redouble’ Pakistan’s over-hype on the unrest in the Kashmir
valley by drawing attention to Pakistan’s poor human rights record in its own
backyard.
How far Modi’s empathy to the people of POK
and Balochistan can be taken forward to shape India-Pakistan relationship
equation? The answer to this question is as complex as the
three distinct regions – POK (part of Kashmir under Pakistan’s control since
1947), Gilgit Baltistan which were part of Maharaja Hari Singh’s kingdom at the
time of partition and now known as Northern Areas forming part of Pakistan and
Balochistan province bordering Iran with its own cultural and ethnic history
spilling over into Iran.
For five decades now, India had virtually
written off POK and the Line of Control dividing it with the rest of Jammu and
Kashmir has practically the status of an international border. Both POK and Gilgit
Baltistan can probably hype-up in the India-Pakistan discourse as a trade off
for specific advantage; on the flip side it could prolong any negotiations.
As far as Balochistan is concerned, the
sparsely populated province’s struggle for preserving its identity in the
national discourse has seen many ups and downs. Pakistan army has ruthlessly
used force to suppress the freedom movement and many Baloch leaders in exile
have been thrilled by Indian PM’s words of support.
The region rich in mineral resources is vital
for the Pakistan-China strategic framework as Gwadar port developed with
Chinese investment is core element in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor
providing land locked Xinjiang province in China access to the Arabian
Sea. Already, Pakistan had been accusing India of supporting Baloch
separatists through Afghanistan. Indian prime minister’s vocal support to
Baloch freedom movement would further exacerbate Pakistan's concern.
India has demonstrated in the past its
capability to militarily intervene in erstwhile East Pakistan that led to the
creation of Bangladesh in 1971 and in Sri Lanka in 1987. So PM Nawaz Sharif
simply cannot afford to ignore Modi’s statements on POK and Balochistan. This
could impose caution in his actions regarding India in the near term when the
public ardour to support Kashmir agitation cools down. However, the moot
question is how much control Nawaz Sharif has over the country’s relations with
India?
Initially, Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif welcomed Modi’s overtures to build better relations with
Pakistan from the day Modi became Prime Minister. In fact, Nawaz Sharif had
called his victory in the national elections in April 2014 a mandate for peace with India.
He wore the pink Rajasthani turban gifted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at
his granddaughter Mehrunnisa Safdar’s wedding. In December 2015, Pakistan media
quoted his instructions to ministers and senior officials not to issue any
statement that could damage the peace process with India. The same report
quoted the outgoing Indian High Commissioner TCA Raghavan saying the relations
between the two countries were heading towards betterment.
Six months later, the same leader was asking the people "not to forget those
in Kashmir who are sacrificing their lives for their movement for
freedom….Their movement for freedom cannot be stopped and it will be successful.
You are aware of how they are being beaten and killed. All our prayers are with
them and we are waiting for the day Kashmir becomes (part of) Pakistan."
What has changed in between for Nawaz Sharif,
a pigeon cooing peace to morph into a predatory hawk spouting anti-Indian
slogans? There are probably both internal and external reasons that
have persuaded the Pak prime minister to shelve his ‘peace with India’ agenda
and revert to ‘Kashmir first’ formula. First is the army gaining complete
control over Pakistan’s India policy. It came after a brief confrontation with
the prime minister when it saw its control slipping away after Prime Minister
Sharif and Modi started developing personal rapport.
Second, the Army chief’s strident call for
cracking down on corruption after Panama papers showing details of offshore
accounts of Sharif’s kin surfaced unnerving the prime
minister. India’s rather confused handling of the Pathankot attack
and its aftermath probably strengthened Pak army’s case for continued use of
“good terrorists” against India and Afghanistan while hunting “bad terrorists”
at home in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Balochistan.
It would seem the Pak army chief and Sharif
are on the same page on India now to build their strategies around Kashmir
civil unrest. Otherwise it is difficult to explain ministers and leaders
participating in anti-India rallies organized by the 26/11 Mumbai Lashkar
attack mastermind and Jamaat ud Dawa leader Hafiz Saeed. He has been given a
free hand to organize “Kashmir Caravan” comprising of buses and trucks
stretched for several kilometers to move from Lahore to Islamabad to drum up
support for Kashmir unrest.
Hafiz Saeed’s “warning” to India to either
accept separatist Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani’s 4-point formula on
Kashmir and “withdraw security forces from the Valley, or face the decision in
battlefield” has an ominous ring. It raises the uncomfortable question is
Pakistan preparing for Operation Badr-2 (Operation Badr being infiltration of
jihadi terrorists –who were actually troops- into Kashmir prior to Kargil War)? Hafiz Saeed’s
statement should not be ignored as a rant for gaining cheap publicity.
Probably, security and intelligence agencies in New Delhi and Srinagar are
already on the lookout for tell-tale signs of Operation Badr-2; Pak intentions
would probably become clear in the coming months.
Notwithstanding his recent comments on
Pakistan, Prime Minister Modi probably still considers building friendly
relations with India’s neighbours including Pakistan as his foreign policy
priority. But he has to bring back normalcy in Kashmir Valley if we are to
avoid a more complex re-enactment of Kargil experience.
That is the first step before we contemplate further moves on Pakistan.
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