Wednesday, 19 October 2016

Modi did not fail India at BRICS, though ties with Russia are worrying

PM’s description of cross border terrorism emanating from India's neighbouring country made his intent to isolate Pakistan clear.

POLITICS | 6-minute read | 19-10-2016

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2

If we go by the comments of the Congress party on the just concluded BRICS summit and some of the analyses carried out in print and electronic media, including the 150-character “wisdom” cluttering the ether, Prime Minister Narendra Modi “failed” to get members to deliver “the knockout blow on Pakistan” as one scribe put it.

Such comments are not unexpected as these spin merchants always spew anti-Mode rhetoric, whether relevant or not, on any issue.

Remember, they demanded proof after the Indian Army announced carrying out the surgical strike across the LoC?  It only exposes the grand old party’s continuing leadership vacuum.

In the midst of the invasion of these “hidden persuaders” (with apologies to Vance Packard who wrote the classic on manipulative advertising with the same title in 1957), we seem to have forgoten that multilateral summits are serious diplomatic exercises to evolve an acceptable minimum to further the objectives of participating nations.

Of course, PM Mode had kindled a lot of expectations before the Summit to persuade the member-nations to isolate Pakistan as a part of India’s strategy to fight cross-border terrorism. He had also been trying to muster international support for his strategy in all the international conclaves he participated after Uri and Pathankot attacks.

The BRICS members come from four continents. At this point in time, their collective strength comes from their growing technological and economic prowess with their total estimated GDP (2015) at $34.415 trillion and their influence over nearly half the world’s population estimated at 3.6 billion people and over nearly one third of global land mass.

Their perspectives are conditioned not only by their cultural, historical and developmental experiences but also their strengths  in the global geo-strategic environment.  

Despite their differing world views, BRICS members have also come together to further their common aspiration to be recognized for their status as globally reckonable emerging economic entities with matching strategic clout.

The joint statements are not spun out of thin air but after close interaction and discussion between the representatives of member countries based on a collective agenda finalized well before the summit. The statements are carefully drafted so it cannot be misconstrued by others.

Evolving acceptable semantics couched in diplomatese is an exercise best left to diplomats, with the leaders providing only key operative elements.

Diplomats by training are capable of saying without meaning and at times they’re intentionally vague and cautious.

Official writings are also couched carefully drafted sentences to stand political and legal scrutiny both at home and abroad. Sometimes, bloopers do occur; India’s faux pas in the joint statement after Sharm el-Sheikh meeting between Indian and Pakistan prime ministers in November 2009 is one such example. 

India after taking over the chairmanship of BRICS from February 2016 has tried to infuse a lot energy into the grouping.

A a lot of events and meetings covering cultural, trade and commerce and issues of governance already took place before the Summit to add more form and content to the grouping. The first meeting of the BRICS Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism on September 14, 2016 in New Delhi with BRICS with the participation of member countries’ national security representatives.

This was apparently part of PM Modi’s international agenda to promote international cooperation to fight growing menace of cross border terrorism the world over.

The theme of the 8th BICS Summit held at Goa “Building Responsive, Inclusive and Collective Solutions” (giving full play to Prime Minister Modi’s penchant for pnemonics) clarifies its objective. Apart from international terrorism, the agenda included financial, development, infrastructure and environmental issues.

The members air their views freely during the bilateral meetings of leaders to provide a better understanding of their perspective during the plenary session. In conformity with global practice on such conferences, only the nuanced wording of the statement indicates the members’ accepted takeaways while omissions give an inkling of their differences.  

If we go by this yardstick, the key players Russia, China and India had different strokes for different folks including their domestic audience.

PM Modi’s press statement at the conclusion of the summit on October 16 covered the gamut of issues covered in the three sessions. These include exchange of views on important global issues, including terrorism, global economic scenario and the need to reform global governance architecture.

PM Modi’s speeches at the Summit strongly stressed on terrorism as the biggest threat to development and governance. Though he did not name Pakistan, his description of  cross border terrorism emanating from India’s neigbhouring country made his intent to press for isolating Pakistan clear.

Similarly, China had made clear its position as a strong ally of Pakistan well in advance when it deferred India’s application for NSG membership on “technical grounds.” It also continues to block the UN Security Council naming Masood Azhar as a terrorist, though he leads the Jaish e-Mohammad (JeM) an organization proscribed by the UN.

Though the Goa declaration specifically mentioned “the recent several attacks, against some BRICS countries, including that in India” and strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, Pakistan was not specifically named. This fell short of public expectations fanned by PM Modi’s high decibel speeches at the Summit.

India probably expected China to dilute any reference to Pakistan. But it was disappointing to note that its objection prevailed against including any reference to both Lashkar e Tayyaba and JeM (both figuring on the UN list of global terrorist organizations) though Islamic State and al Qaeda found a place.

It should be of some consolation to India that China agreed to include two operative sentences: “There can be no justification whatsoever for any acts of terrorism, whether based upon ideological, religious, political, racial, ethnic or any other reasons” and “we also agreed that those who nurture, shelter, support and sponsor such forces of violence and terror are as much a threat to us as the terrorists themselves.”

In the Indian context they would point to Pakistan.

Similarly, PM Modi’s appeal to all nations to adopt a comprehensive approach in combating terrorism including recruitment and movement of terrorists including foreign terrorists and blocking sources of terrorists finance and countering misuse of Internet and social media has also found a place in the Goa declaration. This resonates with his relentless efforts to promote a holistic international effort to counter terrorism.

But India’s evergreen ally Russia soft pedaling Indian approach on state-sponsored terrorism comes as a disappointment.

Only a day before president Putin had assured PM Modi that Russia would do nothing to hurt India’s interests and a signed a slew of agreements to supply state-of-the-art armaments. Did Chinese influence prevail over Russia to change its mind? Or is it the lure of selling arms to Pakistan? Could it be a subtle warning to India to temper its new found bonhomie with the US?

Probably it is a mix of all these; but they certainly indicate India-Russia relations should not be taken for granted and need urgent refurbishing if not repair.
Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO.in



Sunday, 9 October 2016

Viyugam - முன்னாள் இராணுவ அதிகாரி கர்னல் ஹரிஹரனுடன் ஓர் நேர்காணல் | 07.1...

Monday, 3 October 2016

Sri Lanka Perspectives: September 2016

Sri Lanka Perspectives: September 2016

Col R Hariharan

Constitution making and reconciliation pains

The painful process of constitution making has continued amidst pulls and pressures from Sri Lanka nationalist fringe on one end and the Tamil and Muslim minorities sounding the alarm over the various proposals aired by political parties. Major contentious issues include the Tamil demand for a federal structure, merger of Northern and Eastern provinces opposed by Sinhalas and Muslims and powers to be given to the provincial set up, current status of Buddhism and other religions in the constitution and the continuation of executive presidency.

Five of the six parliamentary sub committees set up to examine the proposals have submitted their reports to the steering committee headed by the prime minister for formulating a new constitution. However, the sub-committee on economic affairs was yet to submit its report. Once that is submitted, the steering committee would finalize the draft. The draft proposal would require two thirds majority approval in parliament. After parliamentary approval a referendum would be held before the new constitution comes into force. 

However, strident demands of sections of Tamils under the leadership of Northern Province Chief Minister CV Wigneswaran made at a recent massive rally in Jaffna have disturbed political leaders from the ruling Unity coalition as well as the Joint Opposition. The heat generated by it would probably help Basil Rajapaksa, brother of former minister Mahinda Rajapaksa to rally Rajapaksa-loyalists, fighting for political space, to form a new political party soon. It has already given a boost to the Sinhala Buddhist fringe party the Bodhu Bala Sena, which was sidelined with the rise of Sirisena to power.  

In a massive show of strength CV Wigneswaran led the protest march of thousands of people in Jaffna demanding immediate solution to long standing demands of Tamils. The demonstration organized by the Tamil Peoples Council (TPC) was held under the banner of ‘Ezhuga Thamizh’ (Rise up Tamils). The demands included withdrawal of army, end to state sponsored Sinhala colonization, international investigation into war crimes against Tamil people, erection of Buddhist symbols and statues in the North etc. The TNA which has already been projected to the government both inside and outside parliament disassociated itself from the rally. Smaller partners of the TNA coalition including the EPRLF and PLOTE participated, the main component Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) and Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) did not take part. Obviously, the main objective of the TPC led by Wigneswaran was to use the smaller members of the TNA coalition and pro-LTTE fringe elements to challenge P Sampanthan’s leadership of the TNA and the ITAK’s domination of Tamil political spectrum. The Tamil political schism and power struggle and the emergence of extreme elements could delay the constitution making process. 

President Sirisena at the UNGA

President Sirisena attended the 61st session of the UN general assembly (UNGA) in New York on September 21. However, his UN address covered only Sri Lanka’s progress in various fields with only a brief reference to the reconciliation process. He said: “The government is totally committed to the reconciliation process to establish lasting peace. That would definitely prevent occurrence of another war in our country. Terrorism lasting three decades has ended and now we have undertaken the process of reconciliation among different communities.” He emphasized the need for international support to Sri Lanka to successfully face these challenges.

Among others, President Sirisena met with President Barack Obama and the US Secretary of State John Kerry on the side-lines of the UNGA. He explained the challenges the government faced from the destabilizing forces in the North as well as South, who wanted to deter the reconciliation process. However, he said that despite differences on the policies of the unity government, there was agreement on broad policy formulation. Kerry congratulated the President on the government’s achievements and reassured US support to the Sri Lankan government.
UN Secretary General Ban ki Moon’s farewell visit to Sri Lanka during the month had created a minor controversy when his speech bracketed Sri Lanka along with Rwanda where the UN felt responsible for the massacres that happened. This drew widespread condemnation from all sections of society. However, when the Secretary General met with President Sirisena during the UN general assembly meet, he clarified that his remark had been misunderstood as he never intended to compare Sri Lanka with Rwanda as projected by certain media. He highly appreciated President Sirisena’s total commitment to good governance and reconciliation.
Sri Lanka-India relations
Sri Lanka government has decided to pull out of the 19th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit conference to be held in Pakistan in November 2016 stating the “prevailing environment” was not conducive to hold the conference after deliberating over the decision for two days. Sri Lanka enjoys extremely cordial relations with Pakistan particularly for its timely help in meeting its requirement of arms during the Eelam war, when India could not fulfil its needs Without directly referring to India’s surgical strikes across the Line of Control in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Sri Lanka’s statement in SAARC expressed solidarity with India’s decision to carry out the operations, stressing “the need to deal with the issue of terrorism in the region in a decisive manner”. Thus Sri Lanka became the fifth country deciding not to attend the SAARC.

Two other India-related issues which had caused some concern in Sri Lanka came up during the month. Sri Lanka appears to have decided at last to give up the India-Sri Lanka joint project to set up a coal-fired 500 MW power at Sampur in the Eastern Province which had been delayed by a decade for various political and environmental reasons. However, India which has signed eight agreements with Sri Lanka relating to the project has not been informed of the decision. The Advocate General has informed the Supreme Court of the decision to opt out of the joint venture as the government preferred the project to use Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) or diesel instead of coal for power generation in keeping with its environmental policy. However, the Ceylon Electricity Board engineers’ union president Athula Wanniarachchi said the Sampur project was the only option to overcome the electricity demand at a low unit cost in 2017 and 2018. He alleged that diesel power plants coming up in Hambantota and Kerawalapitiya were being awarded to friends of the government though they would generate power at a higher cost.

India’s Minister for Commerce and Industry Ms Nirmala Sitharaman was in Colombo for talks on finalizing the Economic and Technological Cooperation Agreement (ETCA). She said India would invest $2 billion in Sri Lanka in the next three to four years. On the ETCA, she met senior ministers and discussed the terms of the agreement which had some issues that need to be sorted out. Though both the countries are keen to finalize the agreement, opposition from IT and medical professionals, trade unions and sections of business have held it up. Sri Lanka’s Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama said the two countries would complete the negotiations as soon as possible. The ETCA is widely expected to be signed by end of the year. 

Miscellaneous

LTTE leaders buy their way out: In a startling revelation Minister of Foreign Affairs Mangala Samaraweera has revealed that over 200 LTTE members including several prominent leaders managed to obtain safe passage out of the country after they paid money to an official of the Ministry of defence during the Rajapaksa regime. The matter was under investigation now. The minister was speaking at an awareness programme for heads of media institutions on government programmes to build ethnic reconciliation and on the newly established Office of Missing Persons (OMP).
Tamil fringe elements assault Sri Lankan envoy: Pro-LTTE Tamils belonging to the local fringe outfit Naam Thamizhar Katchi (We Tamils Party) sporting T shirts with V Prabhakaran’s picture assaulted Sri Lankan High Commissioner in Malaysia Ibrahim Sahib Ansar within precincts of the Kuala Lumpur international airport on September 4. A day earlier, the Tamil group assaulted the chief priest of a Buddhist temple at Sentul, Kuala Lumpur. Though the incidents may appear minor ones, it assumes significance as the actual target was former Sri Lanka president Mahinda Rajapaksa who was visiting Malaysia to attend the 9th International Conference of Asian Political Parties held from September 1 to 3. (The former president was probably visiting Kuala Lumpur to avoid attending the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) convention held on September 3 after losing control over the party.) A strong pro-Tiger lobby exists among Malaysia’s sizeable Tamil minority population. According to well known columnist DBS Jeyaraj when the Tamil activists learnt of Rajapaksa’s visit they wanted the government to ban his entry into Malaysia as they considered him a war criminal.

Written on September 30, 2016  

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, October 2016 issue. www.security-risks.com

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force from 1987 to 90. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ]