'ISIS has not failed in India, they will arrive soon', says ex-IPKF intelligence chief Col Ramani Hariharan

Shubham Ghosh, March 8, 2017

International Business Times, India, spoke to former Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) intelligence chief Col Ramani Hariharan on whether the Islamic State is making serious penetration into India. Here is what he told us.

One terror suspect who was allegedly connected with a sinister plan was neutralised in an anti-terror operation in Thakurganj area of Lucknow in the wee hours of Wednesday (March 8).

IG, ATS, Aseem Arun said the terror suspect, identified as Saifullah, was a member of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) Khorasan module.

He was linked to the outfit that triggered a low-intensity blast in a Bhopal-Ujjain passenger train in Jabri station in Madhya Pradesh, injuring 10 people. 

Does this mean ISIS has made its entry into India? International Business Times, India, spoke to Col Ramani Hariharan, the former head of India Peace Keeping Force Intelligence Corps and a man with rich experience in terrorism and counterinsurgency operations, on the matter.

Here are some excerpts from the interview:

IBT: Why is it that the ISIS has not been able to penetrate India as it would have liked? 

 Col Hariharan: There are a few reasons why ISIS has not penetrated India as much as it would have liked.

1. General observations: ISIS is a clone of the Levant branch of al-Qaeda. And it had to continuously fight to establish itself in Iraq and Syria with nine countries on many fronts.

Its fortunes started falling after two years of fighting and now its dispersing into many countries.

There were about 150 Indian IS cadre, though a few were involved in active fighting, others complained that they were treated as inferiors. So a few returned.

Last year, the Indian fighting group Al Hind was formed. We can expect more ISIS members to come to India as they disperse. They have not failed, but have had limited scope. Now with the group dispersing, trained fighters are expected to come to India; the recent train sabotages ascribed to ISIS are examples of the type of activity we can expect.

One terrorist connected with the train sabotage in Lucknow has been shot dead in a gun fight yesterday (March 7). So there will be more to come.

2. In South Asia: Al Qaeda-affilated groups based in the Af-Pak region have been mainly controlling jihadi activities. Even Pakistan-sponsored groups like LeT and JeM were linked to them. However, due to leadership changes and differences over the Pakistan operations, they are divided. ISIS had been trying for last three years to get a foothold and there are now ISIS attacks in Pakistan. So we can expect them to follow up in India.

IBT: Often we see educated individuals going to work for ISIS and returning. And mostly, these individuals are from South India. Is there any specific reason for this?

Col Hariharan: Most South Indian Muslims working in Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia are better educated and well informed; and IT savvy. So they have the money, opportunity, knowledge and tech-resources to join ISIS if they are brainwashed.

They are returning because of job cuts, and a hostile attitude in Saudi and the Gulf to ISIS activity (they have even repatriated suspected Indian terrorists).

IBT: Why is Kerala becoming a hot recruiting base for ISIS? 

Col Hariharan: Kerala's Muslims have high literacy and form the highest segment of expatriate Indians in the West and Gulf countries. So they are politically conscious and keep track of their home state.

Islamic activism is historic in Kerala. The Moplah rebellion at the time of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire (Gandhiji's Khilafat Movement) is an example. They have historic living links with the Arab world.

Many have been active supporters of the Muslim League, even before Partition. The SIMI, which started in Bihar and spread to UP in the North, had the biggest following in Kerala. When the SIMI was crushed, it broke up and the IM was formed, which became active post-Babri Masjid demolition as the government was following a policy of appeasing Muslims. This has continued in coalition politics in the state. They are brainwashed easily through social media.

Courtesy: International Business Times, India.

http://www.ibtimes.co.in/isis-has-not-failed-india-they-will-arrive-soon-says-ex-ipkf-intelligence-chief-col-ramani-718651

 

UK Parliament terror: Weak ISIS means more such attacks

In Europe, terrorism is probably evolving into 2.1 version.

POLITICS | 4-minute read | 23-03-2017

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2

Five persons including the perpetrator – described as an Asian male- were killed and 40 others were injured in terrorist attack barely 40 yards from the UK parliament Wednesday afternoon.

The attack has been attributed to a lone terrorist who was shot dead by policeman after he stabbed and killed another officer on duty. Before that, the attacker drove a sport utility car into pedestrians on the London Bridge injuring many, and crashed on the railings of the parliament.

So far, the police have not revealed either the identity of the dead terrorist or whether any terrorist organization was involved in the attack. As of now, the police believe the only one person was involved in the incident.

It was on March 22 last year, the Islamic State (IS) terrorists carried out three coordinated terrorist bombings (two in Brussels airport and another at a metro station) in Brussels killing 32 people.

The coincidence of the date is uncanny to dismiss its significance. It is probably a strong reminder that the IS, fighting for survival in the last of its bastions in Raqqa in Syria and in Mosul in Iraq, is very much alive and kicking in Europe.

Another significant aspect is the selection of Westminster area as the scene for the terror attack. While it was not as spectacular as Pakistani terrorist attack of Indian parliament on 13 December 2001, its importance lies in the shock effect created by the London attack across Europe and the world.

The method used in the London attack – the use of an automobile to kill innocent civilians – is similar to two attacks in Europe carried out by the IS terrorists last year.

A jihadi terrorist driving a heavy cargo truck, plowed into the holiday crowds in Nice, France, killing 86 people and injuring 434 others on Bastille Day on July 14, 2016.

In the other gruesome attack in Berlin on December 19, 2016, a Jihadi terrorist drove a truck into a Christmas market killing 12 people and fled the scene. Later, police shot him dead when they found him holed up in Italy.

So in all likelihood, the London attack was an IS attack. Actually, 2016 was one of the most “productive” years for jihadi terrorism with 24 incidents to their credit in Europe.

In the year 2017, we can expect more such attacks as foreign terrorists, numbering around 1500 or so, return home to Europe when the Islamic State is weakened and pushed out of the Levant.   

In Europe, Jihadi terrorism, spearheaded by the IS, is probably evolving into version 2.1 (al Qaeda terrorism being version 1 and the IS terrorism in Levant version 2) with its decentralised style of operation.

A study of methods used in the 24 jihadi terrorist actions in Europe during 2016 indicate preference for using ‘lone wolves’ – individuals brainwashed mostly through the social media – to carry out the attacks.

This is cost effective and socially infective method of spreading the terrorist ideology, particularly as the IS capabilities are rapidly declining. We can expect more such attacks in 2017.

Similarly, use knife and heavy automobiles would probably be preferred for lone wolf attacks. It is probably more reliable than the use of improvised bombs of doubtful quality, made of commonly available chemical fertilisers like urea and nitrates.  

Nearer home in South Asia, the version 2.1 transformation of jihadi terrorism may not take place as the Af-Pak territory has sufficient assets - manpower, ideology and probably patronage - for jihadi terrorism to flourish.

Of course, the Pakistan army has launched nationwide counter terrorism operations from mid February 2017 onwards.  As many as 17 incidents involving terrorists have been reported in Pakistan in the first three months of this year.

However, though a holistic national action plan to eradicate terrorism in Pakistan has been launched, its progress has been lethargic, probably due to strong political, ideological and misguided strategic pressures.

Though India has managed to successfully handle the jihadi terrorist threat so far this year, two jihadi terrorism issues have the potential to dislocate the situation.

The first problematic issue could be the return of the 150-200 IS cadres of Indian origin from Syria and Iraq. The security agencies seem to be on the ball in keeping a close watch of the situation.

The second issue is the reported infiltration of Jamaat ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) extremists from Bangladesh into West Bengal, Assam and Tripura states.

The Bangladesh government is reported to have warned India about the infiltration of JMB extremists after it cracked down on them in the wake of the daring attack they carried out in a Dhaka restaurant in July 2016.   

So India simply cannot afford to let go of its nailed fist against Jihadi terrorism for some time to come; it does not matter whether it is homegrown or Pakistan-sponsored because the pestilence is the same.

#ISIS,  #Terrorism,  #UK Parliament Attack

Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, has rich experience in terrorism and insurgency operations. 

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal Daily O             

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/uk-parliament-attack-terrorism-isis/story/1/16329.html

Why Adityanath as CM makes seculars and Congress uncomfortable

They should not forget he has now emerged as a seasoned politician, as much as a practising priest.  

POLITICS | 6-minute read | 22-03-2017

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2

The selection of Yogi Adityanath as UP Chief Minister has shocked many. 

Like many, I too am uneasy to see sadhus mixed up in politics just as mullahs and padres talking politics make me uncomfortable. But I refuse to be prejudiced.

The mainstream English media, which has grown simultaneously with the amorphous secularist ideology of the Congress party, see the doomsday looming with the elevation of a Hindutva archpriest as the chief minister of India’s most populous state.

Forgetting the Gorakhpur MP is leader on his own merit, with his own loyal followers, they tend to blame Narendra Modi for Adityanath’s rise.

They do not seem to factor in Modi’s own limitations in exercising monolithic control over the BJP's decision-making process.

Modi is probably ready to trade off his stand on some issues, as long as they serve the larger interests of the Party without compromising his overall strategic agenda.

Some of the contradictions between what Modi says and how he acts would indicate this.

Probably, Modi had to go with the selection Adityanath as the chief minister, because the Gorakhpur MP’s electioneering skills contributed hugely to the BJP’s resounding victory in the assembly elections.

Perhaps, this was also the reason for the overwhelming support Adityanath enjoys among the UP BJP leaders and the MLAs. 

The opposition does not seem to bother to understand why the BJP opted for Adityanath as the chief minister.

They only see him as a rabble rouser, preaching the gospel of hate.

This only indicates their failure to understand the popular backlash in the state against the Akhilesh government’s pro-Muslim tilt, ignoring the needs of the majority.

This is what caused their failure in the UP polls, not the saffron clad Adityanath’s vitriolic speeches.

We saw the same syndrome – failure to read the public mood - in Assam also, where people opted for BJP, though the party was a non entity in the state before the assembly polls.

Mamata Banerjee is also making the same mistake in West Bengal; in her case, it is fast becoming a national security concern, as the state has become a refuge for Islamic extremists escaping the crackdown against them in Bangladesh.

Even the Bangladesh government has expressed its concern about this.

The basic problem of non-BJP opposition is its understanding the RSS.

It is popular for them and the intellectual class to accept the Left-leaning forces description of the RSS as a Fascist force.

Of course, the Left has conveniently forgotten its own ideology wedded to proletarian dictatorship, in preference for the social democratic cloak it now wears, like the proverbial wolf in Red Riding Hood.

The RSS is a cadre-based conservative religious organization, wedded to propagate Hindutva, a concept it believes should apply to the people of India.

In spite of the popular branding of RSS, during my military service in disaster-hit areas, I had seen RSS cadres working hard to help the affected people, irrespective of their religion. 

Of course, the RSS has its organisational rigidity; I have my doubts whether its set up is democratically-elected.

But in this country, few political parties function democratically.

Perhaps, they are following the Mahatma's tradition of dictatorially conducting the Congress party affairs.

Following the same tradition, the Congress party now pays obeisance to another set of Gandhis, who continue to call the shots, despite their repeated leadership failures.

Just as Gandhis are above others in the Congress, in Samajwadi Party it is Mulayam Singh Yadav and his clan.

And about the Dravidian parties’ sycophantic traditions, the less said the better. 

The opposition fears the RSS because it challenges their so-called secularist political style, based on "vote bank" politics of dishing out favours to Muslims and Dalits to keep them in their flock. 

This clouds the judgement of the Congress party (and its regional copy cats) and other pseudo socialists like the SP in making objective assessment of the RSS and its umbilical relations with the BJP.

The BJP also practises “vote bank” politics, selectively, when political pragmatism overtakes its ideology.

But it listens to the RSS when it suits the party, as the case in UP. 

The Yogi, despite his strong RSS pedigree (much like Modi), has shown he has fully imbibed BJP's political pragmatism as shown in his Cabinet formation.

While assessing Adityanath, the opposition should not forget the UP chief minister has now emerged as a seasoned politician, as much as the practising priest that he is.  

#Hindutva, #BJP, #Uttar Pradesh CM, #Yogi Adityanath

Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, has rich experience in terrorism and insurgency operations. 

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal Daily O             

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/yogi-adityanath-up-assembly-rss-communal-bjp-congress/story/1/16315.html

Why China’s Dalai Lama phobia doesn’t rattle India

Nitpicking over the temporal head of Tibet, at best, suits Beijing to needle New Delhi and possibly to please the local audience

POLITICS | 5-minute read | 7-3-2017

COLONEL  R HARIHARAN @colhari2

China has once again “warned” India for allowing the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader in exile in India, to visit Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, in April 2017.  

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told the press that briefing that China was "gravely concerned over information that India has granted permission to the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh."

He did not fail to add the usual tagline  ​“the Dalai Clique,”​ which he said ​had “for a long time carried out anti-China separatist activities and on the issue of China-India border has a history of disgraceful performances.” 

The Communist Party of China’s tabloid Global Times delivered the “warning” in more acerbic tones​, as it usually does.  

The Chinese media did the same thing when the Chinese foreign ministry “warned” India​  in October 2016, when Arunachal Pradesh Chief  Minister Pema Khandu had invited the Tibetan spiritual leader to visit the state to attend a Buddhist conclave to be held in Tawang in 2017.  

The Chinese seem to have forgotten the chief minister had good political and religious reasons to do so because​ it would provide a lifetime opportunity for ​over 160,000 Indian followers living​ in the state to have the Dalai Lama’s darshan and seek his blessings.

Without being offensive, union minister for home Kiran Rijiju, who hails from Arunachal Pradesh, pointed out that the Dalai Lama was the guest of the Arunachal State and that “as a devotee I will meet him.”

​At the same time, Rijiju firmly said, "we are neither going to be dominated by anyone nor shall we dominate any of our neighbours. But we give prime importance to India's interests."  

He was reiterating India's position on the Dalai Lama, which has remained the same. Only India is saying it more confidently after Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power. ​

There are two parts to the Chinese objection: visit to Arunachal Pradesh, particularly Tawang, and the other to the Dalai Lama’s continued presence in India.

There is nothing new in China’s allergic reaction to any dignitary visiting Arunachal Pradesh which has been claimed as the Chinese territory of “Southern Tibet.”  

Sometime back, they objected to​ the US ambassador to India, Richard Verma  visiting Arunachal Pradesh.​

The Chinese had even objected to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh!

Though Tawang is in the eye of China’s territorial claim in the Northeast​,  in November 2006 China’s ambassador to New Delhi Sun Yuxi enlarged the claim to the whole Arunachal Pradesh, trivialising Tawang as “only one of the places” in it.

The anachronism of it was,​ a week later, China’s President Hu Jintao came on a state visit to New Delhi and the joint declaration issued after the visit spoke of a ten-pronged strategy “to intensify cooperation" between China and India! 

The 430-year old Tawang monastery is considered the holiest and the​largest Buddhist monastery in the world after the Dalai Lama’s traditional seat at Potala Palace in Lhasa. 

This is the reason for Tawang remaining​ the visible symbol of the living traditions of Tibetan Buddhism, giving hope to 20 million followers around the world dismayed by China’s continuous efforts to crush their identity. 

China’s “Dalai Lama phobia” has its roots in the Tibetan spiritual leader seeking refuge in India in 1959 to escape the wrath of the Chinese army, which went on a rampage to suppress a mass uprising in Tibet. 

China had never taken kindly to India receiving the Dalai Lama and his followers with all the honour in keeping with his exalted status as a spiritual and temporal head of Tibet. 

India has helped the Dalai Lama establish his religious abode in Dharamsala in Himachal Pradesh. From there, he continues to keep alive the Tibetan struggle to preserve their distinct linguistic, cultural and religious traditions.

The Dalai Lama’s seat in Dharamsala has become a beacon of attraction for Tibetans fleeing from China’s religious and ethnic persecution.

During the last five decades, India had attracted nearly 150,000 Tibetan refugees This must be hurting China’s pride as it is not much of a “testimony” to the much-touted “autonomy” Tibetans enjoy in China.  

India has gone the extra mile to create infrastructure for education and health care for the Tibetan refugees who live in ‘little Tibets’ dotted all over the country.    

China’s description of the 81-year Dalai Lama as a ‘dangerous separatist’ in its official discourse would be considered laughable, because Chin does not recognize Masood Azhar, one of the masterminds of Jihadi terrorism as a terrorist.  But in the Chinese eyes, Dalai Lama, respected globally for his contribution to spread the message of peace and amity, is a “dangerous separatist”. 

In fact, the Tibetan spiritual leader has opted for negotiating with the Chinese for autonomy rather than carrying out an armed struggle for Tibet’s independence, although sections of his own followers did not like it. 

The high watermark of China’s ‘Dalai phobia’ was the award of​  the Nobel  Peace Prize 1989 to the Dalai Lama,  bringing international limelight on the Tibetan cause when China wants the world to forget it.

The citation said the award was being given to the Dalai Lama as a “tribute to Mahatma Gandhi” for practising non violent means of struggle for freedom.

Perhaps, the Dalai Lama earned the China’s abusive honorifics​ like “traitor” and “dangerous terrorist” when he delivered the Nobel Award acceptance speech. 

He referred to Tibetans confronting “a calculated and systematic strategy aimed at the destruction of their national and cultural identities. 

He also added, “the prize reaffirms our conviction that with truth, courage and determination as our weapons Tibet will be liberated.”

The Dalai Lama’s expression of solidarity of the Tibetan people for the popular movement for democracy in China “crushed by brutal force in June this year [1989]” and that it had rekindled the spirit of freedom among the Chinese people, was perhaps the final straw for the Chinese to black list him, perhaps forever.

His words “China cannot escape this spirit of freedom sweeping many parts of the world” underlines China’s problem in digesting the idea of a free society.

So we can expect the Chinese to keep calling him names and objecting to India’s asylum for Tibetans.

It is not going to make much difference to India-China relations because they know there are much larger issues at stake.

Nitpicking over the Dalai Lama, at best, suits the Chinese establishment to needle India and possibly to please the local audience.  

#Arunachal, #Dalai Lama, #India-China Relations

The writer is a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia with rich experience in terrorism and insurgency operations.

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal www.dailo.in    

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/india-china-dalai-lama-tawang-free-tibet/story/1/16024.html