In Europe, terrorism is probably evolving into
2.1 version.
POLITICS | 4-minute read | 23-03-2017
Five
persons including the perpetrator – described as an Asian male- were killed
and 40 others were injured in terrorist attack barely 40 yards from the UK parliament
Wednesday afternoon.
The attack has been attributed to a lone
terrorist who was shot dead by policeman after he stabbed and killed another
officer on duty. Before that, the attacker drove a sport
utility car into pedestrians on the London Bridge injuring many, and
crashed on the railings of the parliament.
So far, the police have not revealed either the
identity of the dead terrorist or whether any terrorist organization was
involved in the attack. As of now, the police believe the only one person was
involved in the incident.
It was on March 22 last year, the Islamic State
(IS) terrorists carried out three coordinated terrorist bombings (two in
Brussels airport and another at a metro station) in Brussels killing 32 people.
The coincidence of the date is uncanny to
dismiss its significance. It is probably a strong reminder that the IS,
fighting for survival in the last of its bastions in Raqqa in Syria and in
Mosul in Iraq, is very much alive and kicking in Europe.
Another significant aspect is the selection of Westminster
area as the scene for the terror attack. While it was not as spectacular as
Pakistani terrorist attack of Indian parliament on 13 December 2001, its
importance lies in the shock effect created by the London attack across Europe
and the world.
The method used in the London attack – the use
of an automobile to kill innocent civilians – is similar to two attacks in
Europe carried out by the IS terrorists last year.
A jihadi terrorist driving a heavy cargo truck,
plowed into the holiday crowds in Nice, France, killing 86 people and injuring
434 others on Bastille Day on July 14, 2016.
In the other gruesome attack in Berlin on December
19, 2016, a Jihadi terrorist drove a truck into a Christmas market killing 12
people and fled the scene. Later, police shot him dead when they found him
holed up in Italy.
So in all likelihood, the London attack was an
IS attack. Actually, 2016 was one of the most “productive” years for jihadi
terrorism with 24 incidents to their credit in Europe.
In the year 2017, we can expect more such
attacks as foreign terrorists, numbering around 1500 or so, return home to
Europe when the Islamic State is weakened and pushed out of the Levant.
In Europe, Jihadi terrorism, spearheaded by the
IS, is probably evolving into version 2.1 (al Qaeda terrorism being version 1
and the IS terrorism in Levant version 2) with its decentralised style of
operation.
A study of methods used in the 24 jihadi terrorist
actions in Europe during 2016 indicate preference for using ‘lone wolves’ –
individuals brainwashed mostly through the social media – to carry out the
attacks.
This is cost effective and socially infective
method of spreading the terrorist ideology, particularly as the IS capabilities
are rapidly declining. We can expect more such attacks in 2017.
Similarly, use knife and heavy automobiles would
probably be preferred for lone wolf attacks. It is probably more reliable than
the use of improvised bombs of doubtful quality, made of commonly available
chemical fertilisers like urea and nitrates.
Nearer home in South Asia, the version 2.1
transformation of jihadi terrorism may not take place as the Af-Pak territory has
sufficient assets - manpower, ideology and probably patronage - for jihadi
terrorism to flourish.
Of course, the Pakistan army has launched
nationwide counter terrorism operations from mid February 2017 onwards. As many as 17 incidents involving terrorists
have been reported in Pakistan in the first three months of this year.
However, though a holistic national action plan
to eradicate terrorism in Pakistan has been launched, its progress has been
lethargic, probably due to strong political, ideological and misguided
strategic pressures.
Though India has managed to successfully handle
the jihadi terrorist threat so far this year, two jihadi terrorism issues have
the potential to dislocate the situation.
The first problematic issue could be the return
of the 150-200 IS cadres of Indian origin from Syria and Iraq. The security
agencies seem to be on the ball in keeping a close watch of the situation.
The second issue is the reported infiltration
of Jamaat ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) extremists from Bangladesh into West
Bengal, Assam and Tripura states.
The Bangladesh government is reported to have
warned India about the infiltration of JMB extremists after it cracked down on
them in the wake of the daring attack they carried out in a Dhaka restaurant in
July 2016.
So India simply
cannot afford to let go of its nailed fist against Jihadi terrorism for some
time to come; it does not matter whether it is homegrown or Pakistan-sponsored
because the pestilence is the same.
Col R Hariharan, a retired
Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, has rich experience in terrorism
and insurgency operations.
Courtesy:
India Today opinion portal Daily O
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