China's state media often comes up with contradictory views on
India and the latest threat over the Dalai Lama's presence in Arunachal is no
exception. China has much bigger stakes today, economic and strategic, when it
comes to India.
Shubham Ghosh, 5 April 2017
Global Times, the leading Chinese daily affiliated to the
flagship People's Daily has a knack of displaying Beijing's love-hate
relationship vis-a-vis India. On Wednesday (April 5), while it took a strong
exception to the Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, which the Chinese
claims to be their own, saying "it
damages the China-India relationship", it also said in another piece that "cooperation
between the two emerging Asian powers over Internet-related technologies is
likely to provide a good platform to strengthen their future relations".
Similarly, in March, the same Chinese media had accused India of
considering Beijing's much talked-about Belt and Road initiative from a
geopolitical perspective which would only bar it from reaping the benefits
offered by the initiative.
It was also in the same month the same daily had advised the
country's rulers to take a fresh look at Narendra Modi's India saying:
"Beijing-New Delhi ties have recently entered a subtle and delicate phase,
observers soon started to pay close attention to how the bilateral relationship
will develop after Modi tightens his grip on power."
Even before that, in October 2016, the Global Times had
wholeheartedly praised India's growth story, saying: "China doesn't have
the capability to limit India's manufacturing development. What China is
capable of is preventing Chinese investment from capitalising on India's
admired growth outlook, indisputably an unwise choice."
So, given these inconsistent stances of the country's media when
it comes to India, one feels Beijing's latest rhetoric on the Dalai Lama's
visit to northeast is more of a hollow threat.
Expertspeak:
Former India
Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) Intelligence Corps Head Colonel Ramani Hariharan
said an overhype about Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh is in play but
it's China's own making.
He also said that
this is not the first time China has objected about issues related to Dalai
Lama. The only difference is that the Narendra Modi government's comment has been made in public unlike in the past when India conveyed
the same views diplomatically. That's Modi's leadership style.
According to Col
Hariharan, China is raising the hype because it is a bit uncertain about CPEC
with a huge investment riding on it after India raised the issue of the project
violating India's sovereignty (China's core interest). India's support would have
made sure of success and added to its brand value.
"China has also come down in
India's trust after it, mindlessly, refused to cooperate on terrorist Azhar Masood
issue. So instead of semantic jugglery, China has to show some reciprocal
sensitivity to India's reservations. Otherwise we can expect the impasse to
continue," he said.
For one, China knows very well
that its relation with India in the second decade of the 21st century
is no more dominated by symbolic issues like Tibet. Tibet has traditionally been
an issue over which Beijing has shown the world its military and diplomatic
might and has always condemned those who dared to take a sympathetic stand on
the Dalai Lama, who Beijing views as a symbol of anti-China separatist
activities.
But today, it's no more the case.
Also at the same time, China needs to get its rhetoric going, for if it gives
up the strategy of bashing India over sheltering the Dalai Lama, it could give
a message to the world that Beijing has turned soft on the issue. It cannot afford
to not put up a stunt.
India
plays Dalai Lama card to counter China's resistance to it internationally
Secondly,
as the Global Times has rightly analysed, a more assertive India is now using
the Dalai Lama as a diplomatic tool to win more leverage vis-a-vis China,
especially in the wake of the latter blocking India's entry in the Nuclear
Suppliers Group and also shielding Masood Azhar from being black listed.
The playing of the Lama card to put back the pressure on China
is New Delhi's deliberate assertion in the power game in Asia and Beijing is
clearly frustrated by India's diplomatic gesture, which is more open in the
Modi era. The various moves to link the northeast through railway tracks have
also irked the Chinese and hence the roaring.
But economically, China needs India
But China, which has in the recent past acknowledged India's
growth at a pace better than its own in the 2015-16 fiscal, also knows that it
cannot win against India just by flexing its muscles today. Economically, the
Chinese exports much more to India (58 billion USD in 2016) compared to what
India does to China (only 11.7 billion USD in 2016) and in that sense, India's
dependence on China is miniscule in relation to how much the neighbouring
country needs our market.
Moreover, as the 'Make in India'
scheme gains momentum in India, the Chinese will not forgo the opportunity to
be part of India's growth story and benefit from it for its own interests.
Strategically,
China has a plateful of issues today
Secondly, China has been facing
challenges from various quarters. While the US under Barack Obama and his
successor Donald Trump have not entertained Beijing much, the issues related to
the dispute in the South China Sea and over North Korea's reckless nuclear
belligerence have also put it in a spot internationally.
China's
all-weather friend Pakistan is of little use
All-weather friend Pakistan has
always showed China its loyalty but it has done so to get the latter's
blessings in its fight with its arch-rival. India, on the other hand, has
worked hard on improving its defence collaborations across the world (be it
with the US, in South Asia, the Asia-Pacific or Indian Ocean region) and there
is very little to differentiate when it comes to both countries' foreign policy
reach-out at the moment.
In fact, India has also made
efforts towards working closely with China on platforms like the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation and the BRICS. Hence, there is very little space for
the Chinese to manoeuvre against India in a system where both operate as
frenemies and require each other to give shape to a new emerging world.
As far as China's threat on
"damaged relations" with India, it just reflecting the Dragon's old
habit of intimidating its rival. In reality, Beijing is frustrated with India's
growing courage to take it head on and it is showing.
Courtesy: International Business Times
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