The Pakistani army will benefit immensely from
the strategic alliance with the Chinese.
1. Was Belt and Road Forum (BRF) summit an overall success?
Yes; from the Chinese
point of view, BRF summit was a success because most of the key nations through
which the Belt and Road projects pass through, barring India, attended the
summit at the highest level. Thus the summit added substance to China’s bid to
create a new world order across Asia.
But the EUrepresentatives (including those from Belgium, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy
and Spain) struck a jarring note by rejecting a Chinese text related to trade
prepared at the summit.
According to media
reports, EU representatives explained that for Europe the BR initiative would
only succeed, if it was based on transparency and co-ownership.
The EU representative had
also raised the issue of profitability of the project which remains a big
question mark. This, in a way, vindicated India’s perceptions on the BR
initiative.
Internally, the
successful conclusion of BRF has given Xi's image a big boost making him “the
master of all he surveys” as the cliche goes. This would further strengthen his
control over the three echelons of power: the CPC, the government and PLA. But
his acid test will be to successfully carry forward the project and deliver on
his promises on OBOR to the people. This may not be an easy task, given the
complexities of the BR initiative and the imponderables on its gruelling
course.
2. Was India's decision
to boycott correct?
Understandably, opinions are
divided in the country on the Modi government’s decision to boycott. This is
evident from editorials in national dailies, which are equally divided on the
issue. There are merits and demerits in the decision taken by India.
The boycott is in
keeping with the government’s policy decision, which was crystallised after
China chose to ignore India's repeated expressions of concern about the CPEC's
violation of Indian sovereignty in illegally occupied Indian territory in
Kashmir.
Our foreign secretary has
explained India’s deep concerns explicitly to the Chinese
counterparts on a number of occasions.
On the negative side, by
boycotting the BRF, Prime Minister Modi lost a very good opportunity to
put across the Indian perspectives and reservations on the OBOR and the CPEC at
the forum attended by heads of state and high dignitaries from 29 countries.
I presume, the government
took an informed decision to boycott the summit, considering the pros and
cons in entirety. I also expect the government to have worked out a post-boycott
action strategy. We will have to wait and see the developments in this regard
in the coming weeks.
3. Has the BRF given
a boost to Pakistan?
Yes. The Chinese gave place of prominence to Pakistan in the summit and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was basking in its glory. It has come at the right time for him, when his political fortunes at home have gone south rapidly.
He had been plagued by uncertainties about his future on two counts: uneasy relations with the army, which is a power centre outside the constitution in Pakistan.
The other is the judicial
probe into the off shore accounts of his sons, details of which were
leaked out in the Panama
papers. It continues to haunt him.
Considering this, the BRF
probably acted as a shot in the arm for him as his body language and broad
smile in the visuals of the forum indicate.
But on his triumphal return home, Nawaz Sharif will be facing flak from opposition and the media, which have been critical of the lack of transparency in the CPEC project. This has gathered more mass, particularly after the Karachi newspaper Dawn published two CPEC project documents for the first time.
These indicate the great game the Chinese are playing in Pakistan.
I am not sure how Pakistan intelligentsia and politicians will react to
China planning to call the shots in all walks of life in Pakistan in the next
decade plus, as visualised in the project papers.
Overall, we can expect
the Pak PM to be fully occupied with damage control measures to salvage his
reputation already in tatters.
Pakistan Army will be
very happy with the BRF outcome, as it has been unflinching supporter of
the CPEC.
As China’s powerful ally
in Pakistan, army will immensely benefit from the strategic alliance with
the Chinese, not only on the military front, but also in internal power
play as well. It is likely to increase as the CPEC matures further
in the coming days.
Beefing up of
infrastructure visualised under the project would add to rapid maneuverability
of Pakistan’s armed forces in the coming years particularly along its western
borders along Iran and Afghanistan .
Of course, along our
western borders, improved communication networks to be executed under the
project could add form and content to Pak army’s muscle-flexing in tandem with
its Chinese allies.
So we can expect
increased belligerence from the army hiking up its provocative activities
through jihadi proxies in the valley to tie up our forces in fighting rearguard
actions. This would add depth to safely execute the CPEC project in POK in
areas close to the border.
It should also be matter
of concern for our national security planners as the days may not be far off
when Pakistan army carries out joint exercise with PLA close to our
western borders.
So the moot question is:
are the Indian armed forces ready to face an increasingly belligerent
Pakistan army, particularly, egged on by China’s elbow strength? This
question is likely to increasingly figure in the nation’s security
ouija board in the coming months and years.
The writer is a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South
Asia with rich experience in terrorism and insurgency operations.
Courtesy: India
Today opinion portal www.dailyo.in http://www.dailyo.in/politics/obor-cpec-china-india-pakistan-ties/story/1/17261.html
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