Sunday, 4 June 2017

Sri Lanka Perspectives -May 2017

Colonel R Hariharan   | 31-05-2017 |  

Sri Lanka floods and mudslides

Sri Lanka suffered the worst floods in nearly two decades during the last week of the month, killing at least 196 people, who were buried in mudslides. Another 93 people were still unaccounted for. Torrential rains which triggered the floods, affected over half a million people living in 15 districts, particularly in coastal areas of Colombo, Galle, Hambantota, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee, among others. Sri Lanka has appealed for international help in providing assistance to the affected people.

 India was the first nation to rush disaster relief assistance through three naval ships, the first of which reached within hours of the disaster. Reief  from China and Pakistan came a little later. After tsunami struck Sri Lanka in 2004, India had demonstrated for the first time, its real time capability to rush to the assistance of its close neighbour, while the US took three days. India's response to the calamity is also a subtle reminder of the indivisibility of the common security interests of the two countries tied by geographic contiguity.

Indian PM’s Vesak Day visit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Sri Lanka to participate in the 14th International Vesak Day celebrations on May 12, 2017 at Colombo and Kandy. The choice of the Vesak day for the Indian prime minister’s visit to Sri Lanka was a politically smart move by both sides, as it reinforced the cultural and religious ties that bind the two countries. For PM Modi, it was an opportunity to show solidarity with Sri Lanka’s national unity government.  Both India and Sri Lanka had announced in advance that the Indian PM’s visit was only to take part in the religious event and not hold talks or sign agreements. This probably defused the opposition efforts to hold black flag demonstrations against India’s involvement in the development of Trincomalee port complex, as well as the leasing of tank farms there.

However, the opposition protest ended in a whimper when former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who had been spearheading the opposition protest against the ruling coalition, at his own request met PM Modi. He was accompanied by former defence secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and former foreign minister Prof GL Peiris. Though the meeting was claimed to be a friendly one without a political agenda, the presence of foreign policy and defence advisers would indicate otherwise. In fact, Rajapaksa’s response to PM Modi's visit typifies the dilemma of Sri Lanka politicians in handling India’s overwhelming shadow, clouding the country's political discourse.

PM Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka, the second in three years sets a record for Indian PM's visit to its southern neighbour. Similarly, he has become the first Indian PM ever to visit the war-ravaged Northern Province in 2015 as well as the Upcountry Tamils, descendants of indentured Indian labour working in tea plantations when he addressed them in Dickoya during the visit.
  
It was in keeping with his style of touching base with  Indian disaspora everywhere. It also showed his abiding interest in further reinforcing the close relations that exist between the two countries in keeping with his foreign policy priority to strengthen relations with India’s neighhours.  This is the reason, India is showing no hurry in pushing through the Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA), which was initiated at Sri Lanka’s initiative and generated a lot of controversy among Indophobic segments in Sri Lanka.

PM Modi was at his oratorical best in his speeches at the inauguration of the Vesak Day celebration as also at Dikoya, where he addressed Upcountry Tamils. His Vesak inauguration speech largely focused on Buddha’s teachings and the common values that they had enjoined on both India and Sri Lanka. His stress that conflict between the nation states were from “mindsets, thought streams, entities and instruments rooted in the idea of hate and violence” and its “proponents of ideologies of  hate, in our region” were not open to dialogue was a subtle reminder to Sri Lanka of the dangers in building close relations with Pakistan.

The reality of PM Modi’s statement “whether it is on land or in the waters of the Indian Ocean the security of our societies is indivisible” was borne out when China sought permission to berth a submarine in Colombo even before PM Modi completed his visit. Of course, Colombo promptly refused permission. This was perhaps China’s way of muscle flexing to remind Sri Lanka of its determination to protect its interests in Indian Ocean Region, whether India or Sri Lanka liked it or not.  

Perhaps, this was one reason why PM Wickremesinghe, addressing the Belt and Road Forum (BRF) summit in Beijing, said that the success of the BRF and Sri Lankan plans would depend upon the maintenance of long term stability of the Indian Ocean, by promoting peaceful and non-military cooperation, to ensure unimpeded commerce based on the multi-lateral trading system.

PM Modi’s reference on the “indivisible security of our societies” in his speech was perhaps an uncomfortable reminder to many Sri Lankans, who are wary of the Indian ‘big brother’ meddling in local politics to their detriment. Despite all the goodwill for India that exists in Sri Lanka, Indian leadership actions relating to Sri Lanka have the potential to hurt Sri Lankan pride, after India’s heavy-handed intervention during Ms Indira Gandhi’s rule, which had disastrous consequences.  Indian policy makers will have to bear this in mind.

During the month, small pro-LTTE fringe groups in Tamil Nadu tried to organize meetings to commemorate the memory of LTTE cadres and people, who lost their lives during the Eelam War that ended in May 2009.  Such activities are a reminder to both India and Sri Lanka of the need to be wary of divisive elements, pandering to mutual suspicions that exist among sections of the people on both sides of the Palk Strait.


EU restores GSP+ concessions

The European Union (EU) has announced that Sri Lanka will receive Generalised Scheme Preference Plus (GSP+) tariff concessions for exports to EU countries from May 19, 2017.  According the EU sources, this would mean 66 percent of tariff lines would enjoy duty free export to EU member countries. This will be a shot in the arm for ready made garment industry and fisheries in particular, which were languishing after the EU withdrew the GSP+ duty free tariff concessions in 2010.

This had affected Sri Lanka’s $1.56 billion worth annual exports to the EU. The EU action was in response to the failure of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, then in power, to satisfactorily respond to EU’s concerns over gross human rights aberrations in the country.

The EU has restored the GSP+ concessions, although two conditions it had laid down for it have not been met by Sri Lanka. These relate to drafting an internationally acceptable counter terrorism act (CTA) and an amendment to the code of criminal procedure act (CCPA). The drafts prepared so far have attracted widespread criticism.  However, despite this, the EU’s positive response is an indication of its confidence in the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government fulfilling all its commitments to the international community. Politically, the EU’s action comes at a time when the coalition is facing internal stress as opposition is marshalling its resources to bring down the coalition

However, as the European Commissioner for Trade Ms Cecilia Malmström had pointed out, granting access to the GSP+ scheme does not mean that the situation in Sri Lanka with respect to the 27 international conventions was fully satisfactory. She added: “….the removal of customs duties for Sri Lanka would be accompanied with rigorous monitoring of the country's progress in the area of sustainable development, human rights and good governance."

This statement really sums up the situation; though the EU had granted GSP+ status to Sri Lanka, its efforts restoring human rights and good governance are still work in progress.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, June 2017 Issue. www.security-risks.com



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