Though there was global condemnation
of Aung San Suu Kyi’s stilted response to the refugee crisis, many forget that
she has to work within the constraints of the constitution which gives the army
a powerful role to play
A recent article in The New
Yorker titled, “What Happened to Myanmar’s Human-Rights Icon?”, reflects the question haunting admirers
of Aung San Suu Kyi. She was seen as the global upholder of universal human
rights and is Myanmar’s de-facto president (officially state counsellor).
However, she has not lived up to their expectations over the Rohingya issue.
More than half a million of these ethnic Muslims fled from Rakhine state in
Myanmar to seek refuge in Bangladesh to escape military persecution. Despite
the cleansing, Suu Kyi not only took a month to make an official statement, but
it lacked remorse at the horrendous human tragedy being enacted under her
watch.
The
exodus of Rohingyas started when the army launched large-scale operations after
150 Rohingya insurgents attacked 24 police posts and a military base, killing
12 security personnel on August 25, 2017. In the military operations that
followed, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army lost 59 insurgents and over 1,000
Rohingyas were reported killed and many women raped. Human Rights Watch, citing
satellite images, said 214 Rohingya villages were completely destroyed.
Bangladesh’s
foreign minister AH Mahmood Ali called it a “genocide” waged by Myanmarese
troops, while UN Human Rights Commissioner Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein called it “a
textbook example of ethnic cleansing”.
DECADES OF CONFLICT
Even
if the alleged army atrocities fail to fall under the UN’s definition of
genocide, the army probably carried out “ethnic cleansing”. The Rohingyas,
concentrated in the northern Rakhine state, have seen armed ethnic conflict
since Myanmar’s independence in 1948. So the army probably hit upon ethnic
cleansing as a “final solution” to rid the country of this minority, who were
always considered illegal Bengali settlers.
There is no doubt
that Suu Kyi’s stilted response to the human tragedy has affected her image
globally. Her charm and personal sacrifices during her long struggle to restore
democracy against a ruthless military dictatorship drew admiration the world
over. The western world which has been selectively waging “wars” for regime
change in many authoritarian countries made her the poster girl for their
“cause”. They had put her on a pedestal and showered her with honours,
including the Nobel Peace Prize. And Suu Kyi was modest to remind her admirers
that “she was no saint of any kind”, but only a politician. She added
“politicians are politicians, but I do believe there are honest politicians and
I aspire to do that”.
So it is no wonder
that when she became the de-facto ruler of Myanmar, there were high
expectations from her admirers both at home and abroad. They seemed to forget
that in addition to being the head of a troubled state, she had a difficult
role to play as leader of the ruling National League for Democracy and needed
to retain her popular support.
CONSTITUTIONAL LIMITATIONS
However, Asian powers who had their
ears to the ground, were probably more realistic because Suu Kyi faces multiple
problems in functioning as head of state. When the army decided to end its
50-year hold on power, it ensured that the constitution was rewritten by 2008
to give it a legitimate presence in legislature and a role in governance.
One-fourth of the seats in parliament are reserved for the army. Also, the army
calls the shots on internal and external security issues as the constitution
has reserved the posts of three ministers--home, defence and border
affairs--for the army.
So
Suu Kyi has some deft political tight-rope walking to do and functions within
the constitutional straitjacket. According to the constitution, she is not
eligible to be elected president because she is married to a foreigner. So the
position of state counsellor (above the president) was created
extra-constitutionally to keep her at the top of the power structure.
Myanmar
has been facing an existential struggle against some 16 ethnic insurgencies
since independence. This has justified the army’s tight grip over three vital
ministries dealing with national security. Unless the insurgency groups give up
arms and join the political mainstream, the army cannot be weaned away from its
stranglehold on power. So Suu Kyi’s top priority has been to negotiate
permanent peace with the insurgent groups. She had organised the 21st
Century Panglong Conference, a peace meet, with insurgent groups in August
2016. During the second meeting in May 2017, there was some breakthrough.
However, four insurgent groups, particularly the Kachin Independence Army and
Arakan Army (a Rakhine-based group), did not join the process. So, it continues
to be a work in progress.
Suu
Kyi probably knows the Rohingya issue will be a test of her leadership skills.
However, her actions will always be conditioned by the the army’s control over
the three vital ministries. Of course, the army still retains the option to
slap martial law and seize power again. So she cannot take any action that could
be construed as a provocation by the army, which is watching her with a wary
eye.
ROHINGYA IDENTITY CRISIS
Though
Suu Kyi is immensely popular at home, she has to watch out for any popular
backlash in handling the Rohingya crisis. Most of the majority population, which is Buddhist,
including those who condemn the army’s atrocities against the Rohingyas, do not
accept them as part of the national mainstream. Unlike the majority Bamar
community, Rohingyas are Muslims and are racially different from the people of
Myanmar – they are dark and speak a dialect similar to the Bengali spoken in
Chittagong.
Officially,
the term “Rohingya” does not exist; they are referred to as Bengalis,
indicating their illegal immigrant status. They are not listed among the eight
officially recognized indigenous ethnic groups, though their presence was
tolerated till the army enacted the Burma Citizenship Law in 1982. It laid down
1823 (before the Anglo-Burmese war) as the cut-off year for recognition of
eligibility for citizenship. This rendered a million-plus Rohingyas stateless.
Unless the citizenship law is suitably amended, it will be difficult to absorb
them in the national mainstream.
Geographically,
their concentrations are in Mayu River valley along the Bangladesh border and
isolated from the rest of Rakhine state by the Arakan Yoma mountain range. So
Rohingya habitations have remained backward, untouched by what little
development has taken place in the state. Ethnic and religious differences
periodically spark Rohingya-Buddhist riots. In 2012 and 2013, these degenerated
into anti-Muslim riots and spread to the rest of the country.
TERROR LINKS
After
partition of Myanmar, Rohingyas conscious of their distinct identity, wanted
their areas of habitation to be merged with East Pakistan. With Pakistan’s
support, Rohingya Mujahideen extremists carried out sporadic attacks for the
cause for about ten years from 1950, without much success. In 1970-80, a number
of Islamist movements came up. However, the army ruthlessly crushed them. Among
them, the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, which was formed in 1982, developed
contacts with Islamist extremist groups linked to the al-Qaeda in Afghanistan,
Pakistan and Bangladesh.
These
terrorist links added virulence to the Rohingya insurgency since 2016-17. On
October 9, 2016, Rohingya terrorists in large numbers attacked three Myanmar
police posts located along the Bangladesh border. They killed nine officials
and looted firearms from the posts. Two days later, they again attacked and
killed three soldiers. International Crisis Group (ICG), a well-known
think-tank, in a report on Rohingya militancy last December said it had
interviewed members of Harakah al-Yakin (Faith Movement), a Rohingya militant
group in Bangladesh, and they had taken responsibility for the attacks.
According to the ICG report, the group had links with Rohingya expatriates in
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. It also added that Afghan and Pakistani fighters had
secretly trained groups of Rohingya villagers in Rakhine state. Indian
intelligence agencies have also accessed similar information, identifying
different groups and their leaders.
The
Rohingya issue had always been a source of friction between Myanmar and
Bangladesh. However, Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government has been carrying
out intense operations to eradicate jihadi terrorism infesting the country. So
Bangladesh is extremely wary of giving asylum to Rohingya refugees flooding the
country lest jihadi groups also infiltrate the country. However, due to popular
sympathy for the plight of fellow Muslims, Bangladesh is accommodating them
within its limited resources with help from international agencies.
INDIAN ROLE
India
also does not want to allow the Rohingyas to cross over, fearing infiltration
of terror groups in the sensitive North-east region. Politically, it is
untenable for New Delhi to give refuge to them because the ruling BJP won the
Assam elections with a promise to cleanse the state of lakhs of illegal
Bangladeshis.
However,
as a humanitarian gesture, India is assisting Bangladesh in taking care of over
eight lakh Rohingyas there and has even allocated Rs 500 crore to Dhaka for
this purpose. India also organized 7,000 tons of food grain and other basic
essentials such as oil and salt for the refugees. The EU, along with Kuwait, is
convening a donor conference to collect donations for them. The Pope will also
be visiting Bangladesh and Myanmar in November to provide succour to them.
Meanwhile, Suu Kyi
had appointed an 11-member advisory commission headed by former UN Secretary
General Kofi Annan in August 2016 to help resolve the Rohingya issue. The
commission’s recommendations for rapprochement include adopting a holistic
approach rather than just a military one, dialogue between both communities and
creating a path for citizenship for the Rohingyas.
However, Suu Kyi has
to create a climate of confidence for these refugees to return home. To begin
with, a credible investigation of the alleged atrocities of the army has to be
carried out. Rohingyas living in IDP (internally displaced person) camps in
Myanmar have to be extended all assistance to rebuild their shattered lives in
their villages. This is the minimum that can be done to trigger the peace
process.
Can Suu Kyi pass this
acid test? One thing is clear – it will be a long haul before this tragedy is
over.
The
writer is a military intelligence specialist on South Asia, associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law and Strategic
Studies Institute.