Col R Hariharan | 31-10-2018 |
President Sirisena's constitutional coup
President Maithripala Sirisena in a dramatic move on October 26
installed former president Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister, in place of his
coalition partner Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the United
National Party (UNP). Evidently, political expediency prompted the President to
ignore the inconvenient fact that it was the support of Wickremesinghe and the
UNP that enabled him to come to power, defeating Rajapaksa in the presidential
election.
The President’s surprise action was well orchestrated with his
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)-led United Peoples Front Alliance (UPFA) and the
pro-Rajapaksa Joint Opposition (JO) group withdrawing support to the
Wickremesinghe government. After sacking the incumbent PM Wickremesinghe, the
President prorogued the parliament till November 16, preventing Wickremesinghe
from seeking a vote of confidence in parliament. By November 16, the
Sirisena-Rajapaksa government probably hopes to secure majority support in the
225-member parliament. Karu Jayasuriya, the speaker of parliament objected to
the President’s action as it was unconstitutional, and requested him to convene
the parliament early for a vote of confidence.
The Western world was stunned by the developments in Sri Lanka
as it had been supporting Maithripala-Ranil duo to keep Rajapaksa out of power.
They had felt Rajapaksa, already in their black books for his questionable
standards of governance, was getting too cosy with China for their comfort.
They supported the speaker’s request for convening the parliament immediately
to seek a vote of confidence. The President after meeting the speaker has now agreed
to convene the parliament on November 5. Probably he is confident that by then
Rajapaksa would be able get majority support.
According to the Hindu, as on October 30, both
Sirisena-Rajapaksa combine and Wickremesinghe’s UNP front enjoyed the support
of 100 members each. So the support of Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which has
16 members in parliament, has become crucial for Rajapaksa. He is said to have
met TNA leader R Sampanthan and asked for his support.
The Tamil leader sought a “specific plan, a time frame and the
manner of implementation” on the Tamil question from Rajapaksa before TNA MPs
and Allinace partners could consider the request. So the jury is still out on
whether Rajapaksa would be able to muster majority support when the parliament votes
on November 5.
The presidential action was not unexpected as he had met
Rajapaksa more than once. They had reportedly discussed the future course of
the Sirisena-led SLFP as trust deficit and friction with Wickremesinghe and the
UNP had reached the point of no return. However, the timing of his action
surprised everyone including the ousted PM.
The Sirisena-Rajapaksa duo probably decided to act after their
earlier effort to unseat PM Wickremesinghe through a no confidence
motion failed in April 2018. As the much delayed provincial council elections
are to be held shortly, they probably decided to bury the hatchet to regain
SLFP’s credibility, particularly after the drubbing received by both UNP and
SLFP in the local elections.
A suspected plot to assassinate President Sirisena and former
defence secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, hinting at Indian intelligence agency
RAW’s involvement hand surfaced, seems to have further aggravated the
Preident’s suspicion about a conspiracy hatched by the UNP. According to a
media report, President Sirisena had talked about the plot at a cabinet
meeting. Later he spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to clarify that he
never alleged India was behind the assassination plot. However, President
Sirisena seems to have been upset by the lack of quick response to the report
from Wickremesinghe, particularly after there were loud hints of involvement of
a minister behind the plot.
Legalities apart, President Sirisena’s action of not extending
even the normal courtesy of informing PM Wickremesinghe before he sacked him,
indicated the degree of bitterness in their personal equation. This was
dramatically illustrated when Ranil was served with an ultimatum to vacate his
official residence, followed by reduction of his 1008-strong security detail to
ten and the sacking of his secretary at the PM’s office.
In any case, it is now evident that the so-called National Unity
Front of SLFP-UNP combine was a marriage of inconvenience formed only to cash
upon popular sentiments against Rajapaksa family’s insensitive and corrupt
rule. While SLFP is left-of-centre, UNP may be called right-of-centre; so their
perceptions on free economy, private sector etc differ. This has always made it
difficult for them to act cohesively in cohabitation government.
So the coalition’s actions lacked sincerity on key issues like
cleaning up the corrupt system, investigation of corruption cases including the
Bond scam, ending the executive presidency and drafting a new constitution that
would satisfy minority aspirations.
President's action seems to have vertically divided the nation.
Civil society leaders and legal pundits for and against President
Sirisena’s action are battling it out in media columns quoting the same
Constitutional article 45(4). The Colombo daily Daily Mirror online
poll has reported that 72 percent of voters considered the President’s action
incorrect. However, this probably reflects urban middle class view, rather than
the rural masses on the political change. But it certainly reflected that
influential sections of society is not reconciled to the idea of Rajapaksa as
PM.
Apart from the unfulfilled political expectations,
Sirisena-Wickremesinghe coalition had come in for sharp criticism over mismanaging
the debt-ridden national economy. The rise in global oil prices and the fall in
the value of Sri Lankan rupee resulted in sharp rise in fuel and food prices
affecting the common man. PM designate Rajapaksa in his first media interaction
on October 31 has focused on this aspect, perhaps because it affects the people
most.
Usually, India is the fall guy responsible for any crisis in Sri
Lanka politics because it looms large in Sri Lankan politics. This time also
was no exception. There was some bad mouthing of India because all the three
stake holders in current political muddle – Rajapaksa, Sirisena and
Wickremesinghe - had visited New Delhi before the crisis unfolded. All the
three of them had called upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi. When Rajapaksa met
the Indian PM, he sought to assure that he had nothing against New Delhi, in a
bid to reduce the trust deficit.
The allegations against India were gingered up when an Indian
hand was suspected behind the plot to kill the President and Gotabaya Rajapaksa,
though it was officially denied. So it was not surprising that India
stayed “disengaged” as the controversial situation unfolded.
During his latest visit to New Delhi, Rajapaksa had reminded in
an interview had hinted that India and Western powers had helped formation of
the coalition to defeat him in the 2015 presidential election. Indian media has
now reported that Rajapaksa was trying to contact New Delhi for its support as
he was still short of 15 MPs for a majority. However, New Delhi had shown no
interest; after all between Rajapaksa and Ranil, the latter had a better new
equation in the Indian capital.
On the other hand, China was happy to see Rajapaksa, its
favourie Sri Lankan leader, staging a comeback in power. China’s ambassador in
Colombo Chen Xueyuan was one of the first diplomats to meet Rajapaksa soon
after he was sworn in; he presented a congratulatory message from PM Li
Keqiang. So it was not surprising to see social media flogging China
for supporting Rajapaksa. China clarified that it did not intend to interfere
in Sri Lanka’s internal affairs.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said that
China was closely following the changes in the situation in Sri Lanka. “We have
maintained communication with the relevant political parties in Sri Lanka. The
Chinese ambassador met Wickremesinghe and the new PM Rajapaksa” he added. In
simple terms, India’s strategies in Sri Lanka have become a little more
complicated with Rajapaksa back in power supported by President Sirisena. China
already established in Sri Lanka, can be expected to be even more assertive
now.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of
Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He
is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis
Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info
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