As China battles the crisis, other countries
are scrambling to control the spread. India has well-developed biotech
infrastructure with scientists experienced in infectious diseases by Col R
Hariharan
India
Legal |Top News of the Day| News| February 29, 2020
The novel
corona virus (COVID19) epidemic, which struck China’s Hubei province in
December 2019, now has the potential to become a pandemic across the world, according
to the World Health Organisation (WHO). According to WHO February 25 situation
report, 80,239 people (including 908 new cases in the last 24 hours) in 33
countries have been affected by the virus. China topped the list of affected
countries with 77,780 cases (518 new cases) with 266 deaths.
Only a week earlier,
China’s President Xi Jinping’s statement to the Politburo of the CPC that the
corona virus had not yet peaked, made a case for continuing with the strict
centralised measures to control movement of people for work or travel. Chinese
authorities, in an unprecedented move, have announced the postponement of the
National Peoples’ Congress, the country’s parliament, after President Xi warned
the corona virus as the “worst public health crisis facing the country” since
founding of the PRC.
The
just- concluded WHO-China joint mission has made a range of findings about the
transmissibility and the severity of the disease and the impact of measures
taken. Dr Tedros Adhanom, Director General of WHO, in a press briefing to
release the report on February 24 said that in China the epidemic peaked and
plateaued between January 23 and February 2. It is a small consolation to other
countries like South Korea, Iran and Italy where the virus has rapidly spread,
that the novel corona virus is declining steadily in China since February 2 as
stated by the Director General.
The
joint mission found the fatality rate in China was between 2 percent and 4
percent in Wuhan, the epicentre of the viral attack, and 0.7 percent outside
Wuhan. People with mild attacks recovered in two weeks, while people with
severe or critical disease recovered within three to six weeks.
The WHO is yet to describe
the epidemic a “pandemic”. Usually, the geographical spread of the virus, the
severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole of society determine
whether to call it a pandemic. In the words of Dr Adhanom, “For the moment we
are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus and we are not
witnessing large-scale severe disease or death.”
In WHO’s assessment, the
virus has the “pandemic potential.” Describing the current situation, the head
of WHO added, “What we see are epidemics in different parts of the world,
affecting countries in different ways and requiring a tailored response.” While
the sudden increase in new cases was certainly very concerning, using the word
pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear.
He said “this is not the
time to focus on what word we use….we do not live in a binary, black-and-white
world. It is not either-or. We must focus on containment, while doing
everything we can to prepare for a potential pandemic.”
However,
the world does not seem to care about the semantics describing the virus as epidemic
or pandemic. The world view was reflected in CNN headlines of the virus story:
“DOW plunges 1000 points on Corona virus fears; gains of 2020 wiped out” and “Corona virus cases top as markets plunge
in pandemic fears.” Summarising the global impact of the virus, South China
Morning Post, the Alibaba-owned Hong Kong daily was more forthright. Its opinion
piece was headlined “Whatever the trigger, a global financial melt-down is
inevitable.”
In
recent times, no other happening, let alone a virus attack, in a country has
had such a huge worldwide impact. Even the 2009 H1Ni influenza outbreak in the
US due to which over 60 million Americans were affected, resulting in 274, 304
hospitalisations and 12,469 deaths had such an effect.
While
there had been outpouring of spontaneous sympathy for the Chinese people and
all those affected by COVID19, countries have reacted with extreme caution in
their response. Most countries, including India, have shut the door for transit
of people and goods from and to China. The same restrictions are being applied
to other frontline countries affected by viral attack in Iran, GCC, South
Korea, Japan, Singapore and Thailand.
As
globally networked media kept track of the rapid spread of COVID-19, social
media has gone on full throttle with real-time information interlaced with
misinformation; quite a few even suggested home remedies and spells to tackle
the virus threat. Social media audience were attracted in huge numbers to
recycled stories speculating upon COVID-19 as China’s bio-weapon experiment
gone wrong.
In
particular a Tweet from Kyle Bass, a businessman, claimed "a husband
and wife Chinese spy team were recently removed from a Level 4 Infectious
Disease facility in Canada for sending pathogens to the Wuhan facility"
was retweeted over 12,000 times. The tweet linked to CNBC News’ July 2019 report that the researcher and her husband
(branded as “Chinese spies” in social media) and some of their graduate
students were escorted out of the National Microbiology Lab (NML) in Winnipeg,
amid RCMP investigation into what was being described as possible “policy
breach” and “administrative matter.” The
conspiracy story that figured in a video on Chinese social media Tik Tok was
watched more than 350,000 times. US Republican Senator Tom Cotton gave further credence
to the speculation by persistently raising the possibility that the virus had
originated in a high security biochemical lab in Wuhan.
The
Wuhan Institute of Virology, a subsidiary of the state owned research body the
Chinese Academy of Sciences, was opened five years ago after a decision was
taken after the last deadly SARS corona virus attack in 2003. Scientists carried
out virus research at the institute with the highest level of biological
containment available in China. According
to a report in The New York Times, the lab came under spotlight in January
2020, after Chinese scientists said “the virus could have a connection to bats
via an intermediary, such as some form of game” sold at a seafood market in
Wuhan. This seems to have triggered the theories of novel corona virus
originating from in game meat in the market.
China’s
low international public credibility with a kernel of truth in the news report
on two Chinese scientists working in PHAC and their visit to China probably
resulted in the persistence of conspiracy theories
According
to January 27, CBC report, Dr Xiangguo Qiu, a medical doctor and virologist from
Tianjin, China, came to Canada for graduate studies in 1966. Qiu continues to
be affiliated with the university there and has brought many students to help
in her work. She developed a treatment for deadly Ebola virus, which killed
more than 11,000 people in Africa (2014-16). Her husband Keding Cheng works at
the Winnipeg lab as a biologist. He has published research papers on HIV
infection, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), E. coli infections etc. It
said a month later, CBC discovered the scientists at the NML had sent live
Ebola and Henipah viruses to Beijing on Air Canada flight on March 31.
According to PHAC all federal policies were followed. However, the Agency would
not confirm if the March 31 was part of the RCMP investigation.
Chinese
government has tried to crack down upon social media posts on the viral attack.
In spite of this, the quick spread of unverified information and misinformation
even in the controlled society Chinese authorities has dramatically demonstrated
social media’s enormous influence in conditioning public perceptions.
The
moral of the story is: all government agencies have to learn to establish their
credibility and develop the art of communicating to the public immediately to
quell rumours and misinformation. There is a Chinese saying: “When the winds of
change blows, some people build walls and others build windmills.”
Unfortunately, the State, confronted with the challenges of social media will
have to learn not only to build walls to ward off misinformation but also build
windmills to take advantage of social media’s capability to develop a counter-narrative.
The
international Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and
Stockpiling of Bacteriological and Toxin Weapons (CPSBT) and their destruction,
was signed on April 10, 1972, an came into force on March 26, 1975. It is now
ratified by 180 countries. The CPSBT is
special because, unlike other international conventions based on Geneva
Conventions or Rome Statute, it was the first multilateral disarmament treaty
banning an entire category of weapons listed as weapons of mass destruction
(WMD).
India
ratified the CPSBT on July 15, 1974. Since then India has improved its
capabilities in biotechnology largely for peaceful use. The country has well
developed biotech infrastructure with well qualified scientists experienced in
infectious diseases and bio-containment laboratories including Biosafety levels
3 and 4. India has avowed not to make biological weapons. The Defence Research
and Development Organisation (DRDO) primary research lab is located in Gwalior,
MP. Its work focuses on countering biological threats like anthrax,
brucellosis, cholera, plague, small pox, viral haemorrhage fever and botulism.
combat biological attacks which have the potential to redirected to prepare
offensive agents also.
The Indian
armed forces are trained in handling nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC)
warfare. In 2003, after Al-Qaeda training manuals
revealed that terrorists were trained in the production and use of toxins such
as ricin, Indian security agencies also became concerned at the possibility of
terrorists launching biological attacks. Since then much progress has been made
on training troops on NBC warfare and handle biological attack of terrorists.
India and the United States signed a new 10-year defence framework agreement on
June 3, 2015. Its provisions include working cooperatively to develop defence
capabilities, including in NBC protection.
The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia,
associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law
and Strategic Studies Institute
No comments:
Post a Comment