Armed Forces: All hands on the deck

As India goes into its second, stricter phase of lockdown, the services of the professional armed forces will come in handy for the civil administration in dealing with this emergency.

By Col R Hariharan | Special | India Legal | April 17, 2020

https://www.indialegallive.com/special/armed-forces-running-the-corona-gauntlet-96327

The Covid-19 pandemic took four months to affect one million people worldwide; but in 12 days, the figures doubled. It is clear that the world is in for a long haul in its fight to bring it under control. As on April 16, India’s death toll is less than one-fifth of the 2,228 deaths in a single day in the US. Rather than patting our backs, we should worry about the second phase when the virus spreads exponentially. 

The Union health ministry has identified and brought 170 “hotspot” districts, including in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai, under active lockdown. During this period, it proposes to carry out house-to-house surveys and case detection as part of its active containment strategy to break the chain of transmission. In the first phase, the country managed to create 220 testing labs, earmark over one lakh beds and over 600 dedicated hospitals exclusively for fighting the pandemic. However, if we go by global projections, it is in the second phase that a nation’s preparedness will be fully tested.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has extended the national lockdown till May 3. He has warned that it would be more stringent, but promised to implement it with a human face to reduce its adverse impact on the poor. The nation, despite its diversity of caste, creed and political differences, seems to have risen to the occasion to unitedly fight the threat. The centre and states are on the same page; every organ of the government, corporate houses, civil society and people in all walks of life are lending their support to the overall effort.

However, in the second phase when people come under increased stress, social cohesion of the country is likely to be tested more often. Already, the economy has taken a nose dive. Industry, trade and commerce have ground to a halt rendering lakhs unemployed. Although governments have taken palliative measures to provide them essential supplies and some money, curbing normal life is likely to increase the general feeling of insecurity. Sectarian elements are already cashing in on this and spreading mischievous and fake news to churn the emotions of vulnerable people. Already in a few places, police patrols and medical teams carrying out the testing have been attacked. This was seen when thousands of migrant workers from Bihar and Bengal gathered near Bandra railway station in Mumbai and demanded trains to go home after the PM announced the extension of lockdown. The civil administration is likely to face more such challenges during the second phase.

Administrative organs and law-enforcing agencies are already fully stretched in enforcing the lockdown. Under such compulsions, the services of the armed forces are likely to be sought more frequently in the coming days. This will be in addition to the support that the army and the air force are providing round-the-clock to the civil administration in many remote and not easily accessible areas in the north-east, Ladakh and J&K.

Unlike some organs of the government, the armed forces are professionally structured to handle emergencies and crisis situations. Troops are regularly trained and tested to undertake missions at short notice and operate under adverse conditions. They have a well-defined command and control structure with self-contained logistics to maximise their effectiveness. The military is probably best-equipped to handle pandemics because its units maintain high hygiene standards and regularly monitor, prevent and treat infections among troops lest the unit’s operational effectiveness is compromised. This makes them especially useful in achieving public health goals during national epidemics.

The armed forces are already geared up to fight Covid-19 to assist the civil administration in many parts of the country. The army has dedicated 13 hospitals across the country exclusively for the treatment of such patients. The collective capacity of these facilities is 3,000 beds with about 370 intensive care and high dependency units. In J&K, the army is carrying out virus awareness programmes in many places.

The IAF transport aircraft have flown hundreds of sorties to airlift 380 tonnes of critical medical supplies and stores and evacuate hundreds of Indians stranded overseas. Under Operation Sanjeevani, the IAF airlifted medical supplies to Male on April 2. On February 26, it flew medical supplies to China and evacuated 112 Indians and foreigners from Hubei province. In March, the IAF evacuated 58 Indians from Iran and carried 529 samples for investigation. Indian citizens evacuated from Iran and Malaysia are being treated at air bases at Hindon and Tambaram, respectively. It has set up nine quarantine facilities with 200-300 beds. The IAF has also established 24×7 crisis management cells at Air Headquarters and various Command Headquarters.

However, it should not be forgotten that the army is actively committed in J&K and parts of the north-east. Even as the nation is fighting Covid-19, infiltration across the LoC has continued. In the anti-infiltration operation in Keran sector of north Kashmir, troops braving inclement weather and hostile terrain eliminated five terrorists attempting to infiltrate the LoC in the first week of April. Five more terrorists were killed elsewhere in the Valley. As the passes open, we can expect more such bids.

Armed forces are equipped to handle epidemics due to historical experience. According to the US War Department’s most conservative estimate, during World War I, influenza struck 26 percent of the million-strong US expeditionary forces and killed almost 30,000 before they even reached France. The Navy recorded 5,027 deaths and more than 1,06,000 hospital admissions for influenza and pneumonia out of 6,00,000 men. One of the memories of the 1965 war which has been etched in my mind is lining up with the crew of our artillery battery to receive two shots each—one for tetanus and the other for typhoid—from the medical officer. Our neighbouring infantry battalion, which did not follow standing orders for war, paid a heavy price. One of its companies was declared unfit for war after typhoid struck most of the men.

The Army does not take failure in preventive health issues kindly and quickly demoted the errant commanding officer to the rank of major for his dereliction. That is why every soldier remembers the mosquito net drill and the “malaria parade” followed every week when troops are lined up and made to swallow the bitter anti-malaria pill.

—The writer is a military intelligence specialist on South Asia, associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law and Strategic Studies Institute

Think Tanks and dynamics of 21st century world

Col R Hariharan

[This article is based on the notes I had used in a seminar on "Future of Think Tanks and Policy Advice" organised by the Chennai Centre for China Studies, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania, Press Institute of India, Chennai and the National Maritime Foundation at Chennai on January 30, 2020.]

21^st century dynamics

Towards the second half of 20th century, global strategic architecture was shaken up with the collapse of ​ ​ Soviet Union. ​The uni​-​polar world order led by the US that emerged  is now being challenged by China's quest for creating a new world order, by taking advantage of globalisation of knowledge, technology and trade.

In this global backdrop, when I look at the world of Think Tanks (TT), based upon my three-decade long exposure to them as a participant and user, I find many of them suffering from the Dunning -Kruger Effect (DKE). 

Two Cornell psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, found the DKE ​as a cognitive bias​,​ whereby people who are incompetent at something are unable to recognize their own incompetence. Not only they fail to recognize their incompetence, they are also likely to feel confident that they are actually competent. DKE can be summed up as:

"The more you know, the less confident you are likely to be. Because the experts know just how much they don't know, they tend to underestimate their ability, but it is easy to be overconfident when you have one simple idea of how things are. Try not to make cautiousness of experts as a lack of under-standing, nor to give much credence to lay-people who appear confident but have only superficial knowledge." 

I realize the universal wisdom of Bertrand Russell's words: "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are so certain of themselves, yet wiser people so full of doubts."

Many TTs are not equipping themselves to​ handle three factors influencing  the emerging world order:

 1. Knowledge is fleeting as human mind is breaking new barriers, which we did not know even existed.

 2. This has led to progressive shedding​ of enduring values of last century​. ​ ​In their place, societies are adopting competitive strategies in almost every facet of human activity - societal dynamics, national and international politics, interpersonal relations, trade and commerce and even lifestyle.

3. Social turbulence is being generated in the process of ​relentless tinkering of societal norms and value systems and challenging dogmas and beliefs that flourished in 19th and 20th centuries. 

Many TT would like to consider themselves as repositories of knowledge, if not wisdom. However, they will have to give some serious thought to constantly renew themselves to meet the changing needs of society in this century. Their vision​ should now be​ not only to validate and renew their belief systems, but also look at new ones that are going to loom large in 21st century. 

I have serious doubts whether TT are readying themselves to face this existential threat. Otherwise, with the extinction of their relevance to society, they could end up as relics in the present century.

During my association of over three decades with national and international NGOs, which benefit from the knowledge of TT, I f​ound sharing ​of knowledge is inadequate  between the two entities. This will have to be addressed more by TT​, than NGOs,​ by becoming active part​icipants​ in​ society's​ value chain of change agents. 

One way of doing it is to adopt Total Quality Management (TQT) techniques used in industry and business. TQM is a management approach for long term success through ​ satisfaction of every ​​stakeholder, treated as customer. The TQM way is to make all members of an organization to participate in improving processes, products, services and the culture of the workplace. Unless, the TT address this issue with serious attention, they are likely to  meander as talk shops of society and governments.  

Media maladies 

Everyone is being bombard​ed​ by seamless impact of multimedia tools masquerading as information purveyors. It has queered the focus, pitch and commitment of traditional print and visual/electronic media. 

While some of the multimedia purveyors may have the social commitment of the print media of 60s, even they are getting buried under deluge of fake news, alt news, and political distortions and slants. Draconian electronic and legal protocols, trying eliminate such distortion, have also become fetters upon free ​media​. 

However, commercialisation of media and its transformation on multimedia platforms have become the realistic way to survive in the consumer society. With big business houses hogging more and more media space​ in multiple format​, life ​has become ​difficult for small players in the web space. But there is enough space in the jungle of ether, if only small players can sprint ahead of ​media​ mammoths chasing them.  

In this maelstrom, there is an urgent need for media TT to help the stakeholders to device strategies to enable them to​ continue their unique role as watch dogs and guardians of free democratic society. Helping them to do it will be a worthy challenge for TT on public policy​ also​.

Strategic security 

Strategic security has emerged as one of the big sticks of national power projection in global power play. Technology has revolutionised warfare by modernizing the battle front​,​ introducing real-time​ intelligence sharing, integration of​ command and control systems and enormous fire power. This has shortened the time for decision making both at the strategic and tactical ends. Wars have become exorbitantly expensive and horribly destructive. High fire power, brought upon by real time command and control​ system,​ has increased the danger of inadvertent triggering of wars​,​ due to flawed national priorities.  

Considering the growing complexity of  strategic decision making, strategic security TT have no option ​but ​to become inter-disciplinary. They have ​to improve their networking with other TT in social and technical disciplines. In the emerging security environment, TT will have to formalize their networking with the stakeholders – defence policy makers,  security forces and defence equipment manufacturers to evaluate manufacturing integrity and battle field performance of armaments and technologies. This is going to be the challenge of strategic security TT as they invariably operate in their own cocoons of knowledge.

Summing up

To sum up, Think Tanks have to really think hard how they will continue to be relevant in the emerging world. Its realities are fleeting knowledge, constricting time and space for exploring new avenues of knowledge useful to society. TTs will​ also​ have to learn to manage the society and governments as they are demanding more value for money they invest.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist of South Asia and terrorism and insurgency, has experience as strategic analyst in media, resource person in management and long association with NGO organisations. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: https://col.hariharan.info

Sri Lanka Perspectives - March 2020: Gotabaya proposes, Corona virus disposes

Col R Hariharan |31-3-2020| South Asia Security Trends, April 2020

www.security-risks.com

The COVID-19 pandemic has derailed President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s carefully crafted plan to hold the parliamentary elections on April 25 to win two-thirds majority in parliament elections to repeal 19^th Amendment (19A) to the Constitution which curbed presidential powers. In the face of the pandemic threat, the Election Commission (EC) was left with no other option but to indefinitely postpone the election, though it took the decision only on March 19 after deadline for filing nominations ended. The government which had ordered the closure of the schools a week earlier, considered it politically expedient to go ahead with the election and did not agree to postpone it.

The President and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) had repeatedly vowed to do away with the 19A. After President Gotabaya’s victory, the chances of the SLPP and its allies winning two-thirds majority brightened after power struggle between the main opposition United National Party (UNP)-leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and Deputy leader Sajith Premadasa wrecked the UNP-led coalition. After peace parleys failed, Premadasa broke ranks and filed his nomination on the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) front ticket. He is supported by the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, All Ceylon Makkal Congress, Jathika Hela Urumaya and the National Democratic Front.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic, which has grown into a major existential threat has played havoc with the peoples’ normal life. So fighting the pandemic has become the urgent national priority for the President. The virus threat has skewed President Gotabaya’s political pitch. Moreover, its fall out has become a major challenge for him. The voters are more likely to judge President Gotabaya and SLPP upon how effectively the government handles the virus threat, rather than the past record of Rajapaksas in eliminating the LTTE threat.    

According to Sri Lanka Health Promotion Bureau data as on March 31, 132 confirmed cases (including 114 active cases) have been reported in the country. So far there had been 2 deaths and 16 recovered cases. The first case was reported on January 27, when a Chinese tourist from China was found to have high fever after screening on arrival at Colombo airport. However, it was from March 10, virus affected cases rapidly increased to current levels, with 10 cases reported in one day on March 31. At this rate, health officials expect the virus cases to peak around April 11. 

The President’s immediate priority is combating the virus threat on three fronts: curb spread of the virus by taking holistic measures to enforce stringent action to prevent the spread of infection and quarantine and treat those infected and manage the adverse financial, economic and political impact on society. Fortunately for him, Sri Lanka has a fairly well organized public health system, unlike other South Asian countries.   

However, he has to manage misinformation and fake news about virus attack and government measures, which have dramatically increased in the last two weeks. Unfortunately, politicians as well as religious leaders seem to be oblivious of the danger of using the virus threat to garner advantage.

The government has come out a slew of measures to combat COVID-19 threat. After initial glitches in maintaining supplies and controlling crowding of people, the President has announced the formation of a 40-member Task Force (TF) under Basil Rajapaksa, designated as “Special Envoy.” The TF members include three provincial governors, Chief of Defence Staff and secretaries of important ministries. The TF has been entrusted with the task of streamlining a wide ranging of activities. These range from helping farmers resume agriculture activities, organizing public retail outlets to ensure supplies to cities and rural areas, coordinating the work of ports authority, immigration and customs authorities to ensure supply of essential imports including drugs as well as export of goods and ensuring effective health and sanitation work.  

With these measures the government hopes to enforce restrictions on movement of people particularly after work from home was enforced from March 20 to April 3. Curfew has been imposed with selective slots to enable people to procure daily necessities and supply of essential products through door delivery channels. The government has declared Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara as Corona high risk zones. President’s COVID Health and Social Security Fund has received Rs 140 million; more has been promised by industrial houses.

The cabinet has announced a wide range of fiscal and financial concessions effective from March 25 under which banks, finance companies and leasing companies are eligible to participate in extending support to their customers. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has been called upon to impose a six months debt moratorium for tourism, apparel and industries affected by the coronavirus crisis immediately. It has also been asked to provide working capital at four percent interest The CBSL announced Rs 50 billion refinancing facility to help businesses, individuals and self-employed hit by COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a huge financial crisis for Sri Lanka to find money to tide over the financial crisis. To meet emergency sovereign crunch, Central Bank of Sri Lanka was able to raise to total of only $22.3 million on all bids out of $220 million Sri Lanka Development Bonds offered in auctions held during March 26-30. It showed the financial world was in no mood to lend in troubled times. In this context, it is interesting to note Sri Lanka and China Development Bank (CDB) have signed an agreement for a financing facility of US$ 500 million for development efforts.

According to the Senior Deputy Governor of the CBSL the Government was in the middle of negotiating a loan from the CDB which could be between $ 1-2 billion. Considering that Sri Lanka has to repay a total of $ 4.8 billion this year, with the next large payment of $ 1 billion due in September 2020, the financial heads must be wracking their brains to find a solution. 

Sri Lanka has no parliament at present and the President is ruling with an interim cabinet. Many have questioned the powers of the President to sanction money under various heads without parliamentary oversight. This issue is likely to figure in the Supreme Court in the coming months.

In the midst of such stressful times, President Gotbaya shocked even some of his admirers by granting a presidential pardon to release a convicted death row prisoner former Staff Sergeant RM Sunil Rathnayake. He was sentenced to death for killing in cold blood nine Tamil civilians including three teenagers and a five-year old child in Mirusuvil near Jaffna on December 19, 2000. The Supreme Court had turned down Rathnayake’s last appeal against his death sentence last April.

The presidential action was condemned by the UN Human Rights Council representative; undoubtedly it was a slap in the face of the international body which had been demanding Sri Lanka fulfil its commitment made to the Council to account for alleged war crimes and human rights violations during the Eelam War.

Whatever be the reason for the President’s action, it has destroyed the first baby steps to establish ethnic credibility Sri Lanka had taken during the last decade after the war ended. It has reminded Sri Lanka Tamils the harsh reality of President Gotabaya’s words soon after he was elected: the Sinhala majority vote “allowed me to win the presidency....I knew that I could win with only the votes of the Sinhala majority. But I asked Tamils and Muslims to be part of my success. Their response was not what I expected. However, I urge them to join me to build one Sri Lanka.” 

So clearly COVID-19 pandemic or not, President Gotabaya’s sights are still set on retaining his loyal Sinhala flock’s support for the coming general election.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and South Asia Analysis Group Email: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:: https://col.hariharan.info