Col
R Hariharan |31-3-2020| South Asia Security Trends, April 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has derailed President
Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s carefully crafted plan to hold the parliamentary elections
on April 25 to win two-thirds majority in parliament elections to repeal 19th
Amendment (19A) to the Constitution which curbed presidential powers. In the
face of the pandemic threat, the Election Commission (EC) was left with no
other option but to indefinitely postpone the election, though it took the
decision only on March 19 after deadline for filing nominations ended. The
government which had ordered the closure of the schools a week earlier,
considered it politically expedient to go ahead with the election and did not
agree to postpone it.
The President and the Sri Lanka
Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) had repeatedly vowed to do away with the 19A. After
President Gotabaya’s victory, the chances of the SLPP and its allies winning
two-thirds majority brightened after power struggle between the main opposition
United National Party (UNP)-leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and Deputy leader
Sajith Premadasa wrecked the UNP-led coalition. After peace parleys failed, Premadasa
broke ranks and filed his nomination on the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) front
ticket. He is supported by the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, All Ceylon Makkal Congress, Jathika Hela
Urumaya and the National Democratic Front.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic, which
has grown into a major existential threat has played havoc with the peoples’
normal life. So fighting the pandemic has become the urgent national priority
for the President. The virus threat has skewed President Gotabaya’s political
pitch. Moreover, its fall out has become a major challenge for him. The voters
are more likely to judge President Gotabaya and SLPP upon how effectively the
government handles the virus threat, rather than the past record of Rajapaksas in
eliminating the LTTE threat.
According to Sri
Lanka Health Promotion Bureau data as on March 31, 132 confirmed cases
(including 114 active cases) have been reported in the country. So far there
had been 2 deaths and 16 recovered cases. The first case was reported on
January 27, when a Chinese tourist from China was found to have high fever
after screening on arrival at Colombo airport. However, it was from March 10,
virus affected cases rapidly increased to current levels, with 10 cases
reported in one day on March 31. At this rate, health officials expect the
virus cases to peak around April 11.
The President’s immediate priority is
combating the virus threat on three fronts: curb spread of the virus by taking
holistic measures to enforce stringent action to prevent the spread of
infection and quarantine and treat those infected and manage the adverse financial,
economic and political impact on society. Fortunately for him, Sri Lanka has a
fairly well organized public health system, unlike other South Asian countries.
However, he has to manage
misinformation and fake news about virus attack and government measures, which
have dramatically increased in the last two weeks. Unfortunately, politicians
as well as religious leaders seem to be oblivious of the danger of using the
virus threat to garner advantage.
The government has come out a slew of
measures to combat COVID-19 threat. After initial glitches in maintaining
supplies and controlling crowding of people, the President has announced the
formation of a 40-member Task Force (TF) under Basil Rajapaksa, designated as
“Special Envoy.” The TF members include three provincial governors, Chief of
Defence Staff and secretaries of important ministries. The TF has been
entrusted with the task of streamlining a wide ranging of activities. These
range from helping farmers resume agriculture activities, organizing public
retail outlets to ensure supplies to cities and rural areas, coordinating the
work of ports authority, immigration and customs authorities to ensure supply
of essential imports including drugs as well as export of goods and ensuring
effective health and sanitation work.
With these measures the government
hopes to enforce restrictions on movement of people particularly after work
from home was enforced from March 20 to April 3. Curfew has been imposed with
selective slots to enable people to procure daily necessities and supply of
essential products through door delivery channels. The government has declared
Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara as Corona high risk zones. President’s COVID
Health and Social Security Fund has received Rs 140 million; more has been
promised by industrial houses.
The cabinet has announced a wide
range of fiscal and financial concessions effective from March 25 under which
banks, finance companies and leasing companies are eligible to participate in
extending support to their customers. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has
been called upon to impose a six months debt moratorium for tourism, apparel
and industries affected by the coronavirus crisis immediately. It has also been
asked to provide working capital at four percent interest The CBSL announced Rs
50 billion refinancing facility to help businesses, individuals and
self-employed hit by COVID-19.
The COVID-19 pandemic has created a
huge financial crisis for Sri Lanka to find money to tide over the financial
crisis. To meet emergency sovereign crunch, Central Bank of Sri Lanka was able
to raise to total of only $22.3 million on all bids out of $220 million Sri
Lanka Development Bonds offered in auctions held during March 26-30. It showed
the financial world was in no mood to lend in troubled times. In this context,
it is interesting to note Sri Lanka and China Development Bank (CDB) have
signed an agreement for a financing facility of US$ 500 million for development
efforts.
According to the Senior Deputy
Governor of the CBSL the Government was in the middle of negotiating a loan
from the CDB which could be between $ 1-2 billion. Considering that Sri Lanka
has to repay a total of $ 4.8 billion this year, with the next large payment of
$ 1 billion due in September 2020, the financial heads must be wracking their
brains to find a solution.
Sri Lanka has no parliament at
present and the President is ruling with an interim cabinet. Many have
questioned the powers of the President to sanction money under various heads
without parliamentary oversight. This issue is likely to figure in the Supreme
Court in the coming months.
In the midst of such
stressful times, President Gotbaya shocked even some of his admirers by
granting a presidential pardon to release a convicted death row prisoner former
Staff Sergeant RM Sunil Rathnayake. He was sentenced to death for killing in
cold blood nine Tamil civilians including three teenagers and a five-year old
child in Mirusuvil near Jaffna on December 19, 2000. The Supreme Court had
turned down Rathnayake’s last appeal against his death sentence last April.
The presidential action
was condemned by the UN Human Rights Council representative; undoubtedly it was
a slap in the face of the international body which had been demanding Sri Lanka
fulfil its commitment made to the Council to account for alleged war crimes and
human rights violations during the Eelam War.
Whatever be the reason
for the President’s action, it has destroyed the first baby steps to establish
ethnic credibility Sri Lanka had taken during the last decade after the war
ended. It has reminded Sri Lanka Tamils the harsh reality of President
Gotabaya’s words soon after he was elected: the Sinhala majority vote “allowed me to win the
presidency....I knew that I could win with only the votes of the Sinhala
majority. But I asked Tamils and Muslims to be part of my success. Their response was not what I expected. However, I urge them to
join me to build one Sri Lanka.”
So clearly COVID-19 pandemic or not, President Gotabaya’s sights are
still set on retaining his loyal Sinhala flock’s support for the coming general
election.
Col R
Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the
Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with
the Chennai Centre for China Studies and South Asia Analysis Group Email: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:: https://col.hariharan.info
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