Colombo sends financial SOS to Delhi, but India wants Lanka to first walk the talk on China

 

Sri Lanka seeks urgent help from India as its net foreign exchange reserves plunge to an all-time low of $1.2 billion, barely enough to pay for a month’s imports.

R Hariharan  December 18, 2021 14:48:30 IST

https://www.firstpost.com/india/colombo-sends-financial-sos-to-delhi-but-india-wants-lanka-to-first-walk-the-talk-on-china-10220561.html?fbclid=IwAR1YJNk4u9NI8zPztc6yu8dtkdCdLL5PuATENpf8vPdLOTj9LFuMcjKcl-c 

Even as Sri Lankan Parliament was debating the annual budget presented by Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, he flew off to New Delhi, for a two-day visit on 1 December, to seek urgent help from India to ward off an impending economic collapse of the country. This drew a sarcastic comment from former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. Speaking in Parliament he said, “We have had past Presidents, who have also served as finance ministers parallelly, but they have always attended the Budget debates. We have never seen finance ministers leaving the country while crucial public finance matters are discussed. Our finance minister went to India and came back. We don’t know if he went to beg from India as well.”

But Basil Rajapaksa had no other option but to seek urgent help from India as Sri Lanka’s net foreign exchange reserves have plunged to an all-time low of $1.2 billion, barely enough to pay for a month’s imports. The unprecedented shortage of essentials from oil to rice to cereals and medicines was making people restive. The Sri Lankan minister probably came with a lot of expectations, because India in the past had met such requests from Sri Lanka to meet not only critical requirements of food grains, medicines and petroleum resources, but also to assist in debt servicing.

In contrast to China, which of late has gone public to express its displeasure on some of the actions of Sri Lanka, India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has never publicly aired its misgivings, even when the Rajapaksas had disregarded India’s sensitivities on critical issues affecting its interests. Instead, India chose to convey it through diplomatic channels.

The visiting Sri Lankan minister had two rounds of talks with his Indian counterpart, Nirmala Sitharaman, and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. He also met with the minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Puri and the NSA Ajit Doval. But curiously, though Sri Lanka media had said he would be meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, such a meeting never took place. A charitable view of it could be, the Indian PM’s schedule loaded with international and domestic political engagements could not accommodate the meeting.

According to the SLHC press release on the visit, the two sides discussed “four pillars for short- and medium-term cooperation”. However, in reality the “four pillars of cooperation” are “four streams of resuscitation” for Sri Lanka state. The four pillars are a mix of four packages for India’s financial support and investment. Urgent supply of food and health security ‘package’ on an extended line of credit takes priority perhaps to ward off food riots and the fall out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Energy security package for import of fuel from India on an extended line of credit comes next, as the country's petroleum stocks are drying up. Perhaps, to make it attractive to India, it has been tagged with the dusting up of a long forgotten Indian offer for modernisation of Trincomalee tank far. Facilitating Indian investments in different sectors in Sri Lanka figures the last. 

The SHC statement further added, “It was agreed that modalities to realise these objectives would be finalised early, within a mutually agreed timeline. Minister Rajapaksa and ministers Sitharaman and Jaishankar agreed to open direct lines of communication and to be in direct and regular contact with each other in order to coordinate the above initiative.”

Shorn of such frills, Basil’s ‘Mission New Delhi’ could be described as “work in progress”. In military terms familiar to the veteran President Rajapaksa, the mission status would be described as SNAFU — “situation normal, all fouled up”. This is evident from the finance minister’s humble speech in parliament on his return from India.

In normal circumstances, the Rajapaksa government would have sought China’s help as in the past; it already owes China around $5 billion. But, of late, China has become a no-go area, after Sri Lanka reneged on organic fertiliser import deal worth over $48 million with China, when fertiliser samples were found to be contaminated with harmful pathogens. Now the disputed deal is facing arbitration proceedings in Singapore and Colombo. To add insult to injury, Sri Lanka imported liquid nitrogen fertiliser from India to tide over the shortages. The relations between the two countries appear to have worsened further after Sri Lanka appeared to be having second thoughts over developing hybrid energy systems in three northern islands of Sri Lanka by Sino Solar Hybrid Technology. The Chinese embassy in Colombo has tweeted that the projects have been suspended due to third-party intervention, presumably referring to India. India had expressed its concern at Chinese involvement in this project in locations barely 43 km from its coastline.

India can bail out Sri Lanka as in the past with currency swaps and exports of essential goods including petroleum. Even in the midst of the pandemic, India’s forex reserves have gone up from $ 478 billion last year to $577 billion this year, through some smart fiscal management.

So, India has the money, but does it have the inclination to come to the aid of Sri Lanka, particularly after Rajapaksas in power have repeatedly shown to favour China? Does India’s lack of readiness to immediately respond to Sri Lanka’s request show it is tired of being taken for granted by the island neighbour?

These are legitimate questions in the Indian mind, if we look at the past. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with India during his visit to New Delhi in April 2017. Its focus was mainly on promoting time-bound projects in energy, infrastructure connectivity and port development structures with Indian assistance and investment in Colombo and Trincomalee areas as well as road segments mostly in Northern Province. The projects included a liquid natural gas (LNG) fired 500 MW power plant, an LNG terminal/floating storage re-gasification unit in Kerawalpitya, 50 MW solar power plant in Sampur, joint development of upper tank farm in Trincomalee, port, petroleum refinery and other industries in Trincomalee, and development of Mannar-Jaffna, Mannar-Trincomalee and Dambulla-Trincomalee expressways with Indian investment, among others.

India’s offer has been ignored in most of these projects, when they came up for consideration. Projects under this MoU, have now been offered piecemeal to others. Through this MoU, India hoped to team up with Japan to substantially contribute to the development of industries and infrastructure links in the North and East, which would have speeded up the regions to integrate with the rest of Sri Lanka. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has almost killed tourism industry, the country's main foreign exchange earner. Chances of its revival look bleak with the appearance of Omicron mutant in the scene. Remittances from Sri Lankans working overseas have dwindled. When President Gotabaya Rajapaksa assumed office two years back, he inherited an economy already mauled by mismanagement by successive governments. Implementation of his own lofty ideas on food self-sufficiency through organic farming and clean energy, suited for normal times, has crippled agriculture production and tea industry adding to economic woes. Under these circumstances, China's lack of interest in further investing in Sri Lanka is understandable. It has happened in Pakistan also.

PM Mahinda Rajapaksa has decided “Prosperous Motherland that Overcomes Challenges” as the theme for the 74th Independence Day celebrations on 4 February 2022. To make it a reality, India’s helping hand is a must. To gain that Sri Lanka must perhaps show a little more sincerity and walk the extra mile.

The press release on Basil’s visit did not contain any reference to India’s political and national security concerns, which had figured during the visit of almost all Indian dignitaries to the island, from PM Narendra Modi to ministers of external affairs and defence chiefs. These include fulfilling the promises President Mahinda Rajapaksa made during the Eelam war to implement in full 13th Amendment of the constitution, as a part of achieving ethnic amity.

Seventeenth century Dutch philosopher Spinoza’s rather cynical statement “big fish eat small fish with as much right as they have power” comes to mind when Sri Lanka finds itself in the middle of a big power contest in the Indian Ocean, now part of the Indo-Pacific strategic domain. This is more so after India and China are flexing their muscles, after their relations went south in 2020. It would be prudent for Sri Lanka to bear this in mind when dealing with China. Under President Xi Jinping, China is more likely to expand its domain in Sri Lanka in the coming year. India is here, closer geographically, as part of the family of South Asian nations, more accessible in contrast to China. But India is showing signs it cannot be taken for granted, one can only hope Sri Lanka notices it.

The writer is a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism and insurgency. He was the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 1990. The views expressed are personal.

Gotabaya’s third-year in office heading for turbulence

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives November 2021| South Asia Security Trends December 2021 | www.security-risk.com

 

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa completed two years in office on Nov 17. The 72-year old veteran of Sri Lanka army was elected with an overwhelming majority by Sinhala voters, with the hope he would use his “terminator” magic to “achieve new heights as a nation” as brother and former president Mahinda Rajapaksa puts it. His election manifesto - “Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour” (VPS) has been adopted as a national policy framework after he assumed office. It has ten key policies, with an elaborate and detailed action plan, not designed for the nation yet to recover from the unhealed wounds of three decades of continuing ethnic confrontation. In fact, the VPS prioritises only Buddhism of the Sinhala ethnic kind.

Unlike his Chinese counterpart Xi Ping’s Chinese Dream, Vista's vision was over ambitious for a presidential term of five years. Some of its modest goals are probably achievable, if people were inspired to make sacrifices. However, the President’s style, depending upon military-bureaucratic regimentation, rather than leveraging political strength, can hardly inspire people already suffering from trust deficit in politics.

Moreover, he had inherited a degraded government, empty coffers and the national economy groaning under a decade of mounting debt burden. The COVID-19 global pandemic, mutating every day, provided convenient excuses, but aberrations of governance make economic recovery more complex. Under this emerging scenario, President Rajapaksa rule is probably heading for a turbulent third-year in office.  

The takeaways from his actions so far, shorn of political rhetoric surrounding them, expose the soft underbelly of governance. Its features seem to be: firming up the Rajapaksas' grip on the nation, pampering Buddhist clergy and the Sinhala majority and neutralising the influence of political satraps on the government through the use of military men (including veterans) and ViyathaMaga loyalists.

The country’s participatory democracy, never fully allowed to bloom, has been reduced to “partial democracy.” It is in danger of deteriorating into autocracy, supported by the military and Rajapaksa loyalists. So when President Rajapaksa talks of a new constitution (indicated in the VPS framework), political parties of all hues including minority parties fear formalisation of his style of governance.

The President’s talk of being beholden to Sinhala majority support and reverting to unitary form of government under the new constitution stoke minority fears of further marginalisation from the national mainstream. 

The President has constituted a committee of experts, not a committee of elected members of parliament, to prepare the draft constitution. Earlier, the Sirisena government went through the same charade of drafting a new constitution. It was still born because of trust deficit between various ethnicities. Under the present dispensation, even the small gains made by earlier governments to gain the confidence of the Tamil minority through  influential diaspora bodies like the Global Tamil Forum (GTF), have been snuffed out after they have been banned again.  After the LTTE was wiped out, its overseas elements lost control over diaspora Tamil bodies like GTF. The ban has come at the wrong time, when the government needs to use diaspora Tamils to find a working equation with the aggrieved Tamil minority within a united Sri Lanka. The present government’s ban of even moderate diaspora groups, has given a lease of life to LTTE’s overseas elements, still “democratically” fighting for the cause of independent Eelam. Their calls for international action are likely to get more shrill. 

In October, the President appointed the hard-line Buddhist monk Galagoda Aththe Gnasara to head a 13-member task force to prepare a draft law for implementing the “One Country, One Law” as promised during the election. It is to replace the present laws based on different ethnic cultural traditions, that have existed from colonial times. The monk gained notoriety by leading the anti-Muslim hate campaign of Bodhu Bala Sena, Buddhist fringe group in 2013. His legal experience is limited to being found guilty and sentenced to imprisonment for criminally intimidating a witness in court in 2016. Of course, he was conveniently pardoned by President Sirisena just before he laid down office in 2019. His perspective on Sri Lanka is summed up by a statement attributed to him: “This is a government created by Sinhala Buddhists and it must remain Sinhala Buddhist. Democratic and pluralistic values are killing the Sinhala race.” The composition of the Task Force was in keeping with the sentiment. Originally, it had four Muslim members but ther was no representative from Tamil minority.  However, after representations were made by various parties, three Tamil members were added. But the damage to its credibility has been done.

It is in this environment the exercise of drafting a new constitution is being undertaken. As the Colombo daily The Island editorialised “One can only hope that the Constitution which is said to be on the anvil will not be an exercise to compass the political ends of those in power, especially the ruling family, which has a deep batting line up, as it were."

However, President Gotabaya in his third year in office is likely to be confronted with more mundane existential issues, than about gaining brownie points for the VPS agenda. These include finding money to import oil and other essential daily needs like rice, pulses and vegetables, ways to service foreign debt after Sri Lankan rupee has been further discounted and credit rating is sliding dangerously. On national security, house cleaning is urgently required to ensure accountability in the wake of Easter Sunday jihadi bombings, lest rogue elements within the system getaway with it. In the emerging disturbing strategic scenario in the Indo-Pacific, Sri Lanka can expect more overt and covert arm twisting from China, as demonstrated by what followed the Chinese organic fertilizer import fiasco. So it may have to take a relook at its long term relationship building with China. Internally, the President  may be required to seriously look at his political support base as the feud between the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) seems to be gathering momentum.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

 

 

 

Grim Realities of India-Sri Lanka-China Triangle

 Syed Ali Mujtaba | Clarion India | November 29, 2021

https://clarionindia.net/grim-realities-of-india-sri-lanka-china-triangle/

‘The world is witnessing the cold war 2.0, where China has emerged as a major challenger to the US supremacy,’ observed Col R. Hariharan, and retired Military Intelligence Officer who was with Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) from 1997 – 1990 in Sri Lanka.

Speaking at the Center for Peace and Economic prosperity in South Asia topic; “India- Sri Lanka – China triangle,” Col R. Hariharan said; ‘China wants to revive its old glory when it dominated the world but lost its numero uno position to the West due to the lack of naval capabilities.’

‘Now China is all set to acquire blue water navy status and can freely operate across the oceans and my like to dominate the Indian and Pacific oceans, catapulting to becoming a real superpower.’

The South Asian expert said all the coastal countries in the South Asian region are all under Chinese influence due to its loan policy and deep involvement in infrastructure development projects. This policy has led the coastal countries to become debt-ridden and due to nonpayment of the loan, they are vulnerable to becoming Chinese protectorates.

Talking about the Chinese threat to India emanating from Sri Lanka, Col Hariharan said, ‘Sri Lanka holds a very strategic position in the Indian Ocean region as it is close to the international sea lane that passes into the Indo -Pacific region.’

‘Sri Lanka plays a pivotal role for India to control the strategic choke points in the Indian Ocean region. If Sri Lanka falls into the Chinese sphere of influence, it can have easy access to the Indian and Pacific Ocean region that may have a huge impact on India’s security,’ Col Hariharan, said.

Talking about China’s involvement in Sri Lanka, the soldier scholar said the year 2004 was the beginning of the Beginning’s dalliance with the island nation. This was when India refused to give military aid to both, Sri Lankan government and the rebels, fighting the protected ethnic war. That’s when China supplied arms to the Sri Lankan government that turned the table in its favor and LTTE got defeated in 2009.  After that China started making forays into Sri Lanka and a bohemian relationship developed between the two much to the disadvantage of India.

After that China has become the biggest investor in Sri Lanka. It has built expressways, ports, power projects many of such infrastructural needs that it got on lease for 99 years. This created a debt trap problem for Sri Lanka, which owes USD 1.3 billion to China. The growing debt problem of Sir Lank would certainly impact Indian security because would bring it under the Chinese sphere of influence.

Talking about the development of the Colombo port by China, Col Hariharan said, “The Chinese ambition is to control Colombo port to displace India. Colombo port is one of the busiest ports and 70 percent of India’s container shipment takes place from this port. India is heavily dependent on Colombo port for the transshipment of its international containers to India. China is developing three out of five container terminals of Colombo port and only one is being developed by India’s Adani group. Further, the Chinese development of the Colombo port city has huge security implications for India. This may change the dynamics of the India -Sri Lanka relationship, the IPKF veteran said.

Col Hariharan said China’s growing involvement in Sir Lanka will have its main impact felt on South India, particularly Tamil Nadu. India has to be on guard towards the growing influence of China over Sri Lanka because its Southern region is quite vulnerable at the sea.  India has to strengthen its naval security in South India and augment its Southern ports to become less dependent on the Colombo port.   Some efforts made in this direction include India – Sri Lanka and Maldives navy agreeing for joint patrolling of their SEZ but that’s not enough to protect the sea borders and more needs to be done because there are grim realities in India – Sri Lanka – China triangle.

பூகோளப் போட்டியால் இலங்கையில் தொடரப்போகும் ஆட்சி மாற்றங்கள்: கேணல் ஆர். ஹரிகரன் எச்சரிக்கை

 

Weaponization of Information in China

 We can expect to see China’s media strategy in full play in both domestic and international media, making it difficult to separate actual news from fake as it has weaponised the media. Regulators also appear to be concerned about the younger population straying from “patriotic path” under the influence of online media controlled by foreigners.

By Col R Hariharan | Column| India Legal | November 5, 2021

https://www.indialegallive.com/column-news/weaponization-of-information-in-china/

In the biggest clean up since the Covid-19 was brought under control, China has recently launched a multi-pronged regulatory crackdown on a broad range of industries, thus raising a lot of uncertainties. This can be interpreted as China’s Communist Party (CCP) under President Xi Jinping’s way of reminding tech giants and other big businesses who are calling the shots.

According to China watcher and author Deter Tiff Roberts: “Beijing is intent on strengthening control over private companies and foreign investment,” reserving shares in essential sectors like semi-conductors for domestic use and boosting the role of state-owned firms. More importantly, the regulators also appear to be concerned about younger population straying from “patriotic path” under the influence of online media controlled by foreigners.

President Xi Jinping laid down the rules of conduct for the use of cyberspace for informatization process as early as February 2014, in his address to the Central Cyber Security and Informatization Group (CCSIG). He said: “The Internet is not a place outside the law. Using the Internet to promote the overthrow of state power, instigate religious extremism, promote national separatism, instigate violent terrorist activities, etc., such behaviour must be resolutely stopped and cracked, and must not be allowed to prevail.”

He added that using the Internet to conduct fraudulent activities, spread pornographic materials, conduct personal attacks, peddle illegal items, etc must be “resolutely controlled” and must not be allowed to prevail. This would indicate that weaponization of information was always part of the CCP agenda.

In the same meeting, Xi called the core technology of the Internet as “our biggest hidden danger as the core technology is restricted by others.” He compared any Internet company heavily relying on foreign countries to core components relying heavily on foreign countries where the lifeline of the supply chain is in the hands of others. He said it was like building a house on someone else’s wall, no matter how big and beautiful it was. It may not be able to withstand wind and rain, and may even be vulnerable. He said that “if we want to grasp the initiative in our country’s Internet development and ensure Internet security and national security, we must break through the core technology problem and strive to achieve ‘curve overtaking’ in certain areas and aspects.”

A few days back, Yahoo Inc. pulled out of China, citing an increasingly challenging operating environment. In a a statement, the internet service provider said: “In recognition of the increasingly challenging business and legal environment in China, Yahoo’s suite of services will no longer be accessible from mainland China as of November 1.” Yahoo’s withdrawal is largely symbolic as China’s digital censorship has already blocked many of its services.

The entertainment industry in China has been asked to shun artists with “incorrect political positions”, strictly enforce pay caps for actors and cultivate a “patriotic atmosphere” for the industry. It is part of the State’s efforts to crush celebrity fan culture. Already, sale of fan merchandise has been banned.

Gaming companies have also faced the wrath of regulators who slapped restrictions on the amount of time players under the age of 18 can spend on online games on weekends and holidays to curb game addiction.

China has already started tightening the rules for big tech IT companies. Last year, it halted at the last moment the planned IPO of Ant Group, a giant internet finance company in New York. Now, it is framing rules to ban internet companies, whose data poses potential risks from listing outside the country.

Cloud computing is also facing uncertainties as China is building its own State-backed cloud system that is likely to challenge tech giants like Alibaba, Huawei and Tencent Holdings. The State is also seeking to tighten the oversight of algorithms tech companies, including e-commerce companies and social media platforms, use to target users. The Cyberspace Administration of China has said that companies must abide by business ethics and principles of fairness and should set up algorithm models that do not entice users to spend large amounts.

The Chinese government has also introduced regulations to bar private tutoring companies from raising capital overseas. The rules say tutoring centres must register as not-for-profit companies. Now they will not offer subjects taught in public schools; holding classes on weekends and holidays is banned. China has a highly competitive education system like India; this has made tutoring services popular with parents.

The banking sector has issued regulations to tighten control of online loans by finance companies. The Cyberspace Administration of China has asked Didi Chuxing, the top ride hailing company, to stop accepting new users after it went public on the New York Stock Exchange last June. Already financial regulators have slapped curbs on cryptocurrency sector, barring banks and online payment firms from using cryptocurrency. Provincial governments have also barred use of cryptocurrency. The government is also sorting out the issue of property management sector to improve order. Efforts to curb rampant borrowing in real estate sector is in place; caps have been imposed on borrowing of developers and property loans by banks.

In this turbulent environment, we can expect China to tighten control of media, both at home and abroad. Last March, a report of the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China (FCCC) said that China used coronavirus prevention measures, intimidation and visa curbs to limit foreign reporting in 2020, ushering in a “rapid decline in media freedom”. The FCCC annual report said in the 150 responses it received for a third year in a row that no journalist said the working conditions had improved. The report said: “All arms of State power, including surveillance systems introduced to curb coronavirus, were used to harass and intimidate journalists, their Chinese colleagues and those whom the foreign press sought to interview.

BBC’s Beijing correspondent John Sudworth has reported that in addition to the heavy restrictions it places on foreign journalists trying to report the truth about its far western regions of Xinjiang, China used the new tactic labelling independent coverage as “fake news”. He had reported their own experience of intimidation by unidentified persons while travelling along Xinjiang’s desert highways. They forced them to leave one city by chasing them out of restaurants and shops, ordering the owners not to serve them. Their report on thousands of Uyghurs and other minorities being forced to pick cotton based on China’s own policy documents, were dubbed as “fake news” by China’s Communist Party-run media.

On the other hand, the results of a global survey carried out by the Inter­national Federation of Journalists (IFJ) of its affiliated unions showed China had used the Covid-19 pandemic to boost its image in global media coverage. More than half the countries surveyed in 2020 said that the coverage of China in their national media was more positive since the start of the pandemic. The Chinese were probably taking a more interventionist approach on local media coverage of China.

The report also said that more than 80% of the countries were concerned about disinformation in their national media, though only a third of them said China was responsible for it.

The report said when the pandemic started spreading, China activated the existing media infrastructure it had placed globally to seek positive narratives about China in national media and used novel tactics, such as disinformation. This is not surprising, as for the last two decades, China has been reshaping the global environment to expand the reach of its own share of state-run news outlets in tandem with its growing global reach.

According to IFJ, China appeared to have increased its own domestic and international news offering tailored for each country in non-English speaking languages. This is significant as international media was struggling to survive due to the adverse fall out of Covid-19 pandemic on economy.

We can expect China’s media strategy in full play in both domestic and international media, making it difficult to separate actual news from the fake one as it has weaponised the media. The latest example is the report in Financial Times that China had tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile, last August. It said the weapon “circled the globe before speeding towards its target”. However, China denied the report and said it was an experimental spacecraft and not a weapon.

The Financial Times report quoted “five people familiar with the test” to say that the rocket carrying the hypersonic glide-vehicle flying on a low space orbit missed the target by “about two dozen miles.” The report said the test showed China had made “astounding progress” and wondered why the US often underestimated China’s military modernisation. Whether China has actually carried out the hypersonic missile test or not, the report has aggravated global paranoia about China’s capabilities because hypersonic missile can penetrate the missile shield. 

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies.

 

Sri Lanka: Politics of Majoritarianism, Security and Scams

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives October 2021| South Asia Security Trends November 2021 | www.security-risk.com

 

Happenings in Sri Lanka during the month of October 2021 can be summarised as “Politics of Majoritarianism, Security and Scams.” President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, known for goal-oriented action. But two of his recent decisions, abolition of the use of chemical fertilizers and introducing “one country one law” are having ripple effect not only on economy and ethnic peace, but also on relations with China and India. The name of one of the Rajapaksa’s figuring in the Pandora papers is probably yet another scam in the making. The month saw India making news more than once in the media. Visits by Secretary for External Affairs Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Indian army chief General MM Narvane, Indian and Sri Lankan armies’ joint exercise and visit by six warships of Indian Navy highlighted India’s sustained interest in making India-Sri Lanka relations multi-faceted.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had imposed a total ban on agrochemicals including fertilizers and pesticides in May, to make farming totally organic. It also helped the cash strapped government save around $400 million for import of fertilizers. The President’s action was ill timed, as the economy was already reeling from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Tea industry and farmers cried hoarse as shortage of fertilizers peaked and food prices shot up. In August, the government placed an order for the import of 96,000 tonnes of organic fertilizer with Qingdao Seawin Biotech Group, a Chinese company. The samples of the imported fertilizer were found to contain Erwinia and other harmful bacteria when tested by Sri Lanka’s National Plant Quarantine Service. The Chinese embassy in Colombo condemned the tests, questioning the competency of the testing agency and maintaining the fertilizer was found sterile on testing before export. The Department of Agriculture banned import of all fertilizers from China and the agriculture ministry suspended the $ 63 million contract awarded to the company. To make up Sri Lanka’s urgent needs, India organised the supply of 3.1 million litres of nano liquid fertilizer, which were tested and found to be free of contamination.

The whole episode was a big loss of face for China. China took exception to Sri Lanka scientists’ action and wants the samples tested at another laboratory “acceptable to both sides”. The Chinese embassy has black listed the state-owned Peoples Bank of Sri Lanka for not paying the contracted amount. Sri Lanka has now announced that it was reversing the decision on import of fertilizer to help growers of Ceylon tea, one of the main foreign exchange earners.

President Rajapaksa’s appointment of a 13-member Presidential Task Force (PTF) headed by the controversial Buddhist cleric Galagodaathhe Gnanasara to implement the concept of “One Country, One Law” (OCOCL) has drawn a lot of flak from opposition parties and civil society on many counts. The PTF is tasked to “make a study of the implementation of the concept ‘One Country One Law’ and prepare a draft Act for the purpose and submit a report by February 28, 2022.”

The announcement of a PTF on OCOL comes as no surprise; the President had used it as a slogan during his 2019 presidential campaign to garner Sinhala Buddhist votes. Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) in a statement has pointed out the concept of “One Country, One Law” smacks of majoritarianism. It added that it was “by no means an expression of a desire for equality or equal protection under the law.” It also questioned the President’s style of governance through task forces.

The appointment of Gnanasara Thera to head the PTF, surprised many. Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) MP Harin Fernando pointed out the PTF is headed by someone who is blamed by the Presidential Commission of Inquiry which probed the Easter Sundays attacks of April 21, 2019 and whom the Commission has also called to be prosecuted. The Colombo daily Island aptly editorialised: “It defies comprehension why the President has handpicked as the head of the PTF as person who was granted a presidential pardon while serving a sentence for contempt of court, which in other words means causing an affront to the dignity of the judiciary”. Its question “How come the President thinks a person sentenced to jail for violating the law is fit to carry out his one country one law project” though relevant will continue to remain unanswered.

Moreover, the PTF is constituted a few months after the cabinet took a decision to amend the country’s Muslim personal laws. At present, The Kandyan Law and Thesawalamai Law apply to Sinhala and Tamil communities respectively. In view of this it is doubtful the PTF composed of nine Sinhalese members and four Muslims but no Tamils is competent to sit and evolve OCOL that would deliver justice to all ethnic communities.

India-Sri Lanka relations appear to be seriously undergoing some repair. After India came with a supply of nano nitrogen organic fertilizer to bale out Sri Lanka from the fertilizer crisis, Sri Lanka was reported to be seeking $500 million credit from India to pay for petroleum purchases as petrol shortage reached a critical stage.  India may accommodate Sri Lanka’s request as oil shortage can cripple the country’s economy, already battered by the impact of  Covid-19 pandemic. In this context, it is interesting to note the issue Sri Lanka finalising India’s longstanding offer to develop the oil tank farms at Trincomalee came up when India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla called upon the President during his three-day visit to Colombo. Elevating bilateral relationship of to a strategic level, bolstering foreign investments and expand strategic cooperation in defence and Indian Ocean security are probably some of the issues the Foreign Secretary discussed with the President and the Prime Minister during his Colombo visit. He is said to have stressed the importance taking forward long pending projects beneficial to both countries and enhancing air and sea connectivity. He reiterated India’s position on complete implementation of the provisions under the 13^th Amendment to the Constitution, including devolution of powers and holding of provincial elections at the earliest.

A week after the Indian Foreign Secretary’s visit, Chief of Army Staff General MM Naravane visited Sri Lanka. He is also said to have underscored the importance India attaches to expeditiously taking forward mutually beneficial projects. During his meeting with the President, General Naravane said India “highly expects” the stability of neighbouring countries for regional security. According to the Presidential Media Division, a specially designed training course for 50 army officers will be provided to Sri Lanka in the near future at the request of the Chief of Defence Staff and the Commander of the Sri Lanka Army. It is interesting to note India-Sri Lanka joint army training exercise Mitra Shakthi was being held during his visit.

[Col R Hariharan, a retire MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

 

Time to support democracy in Myanmar

The recent ASEAN snub was a huge loss of face for the junta chief. But can India and the international community wait for the group to take action while Myanmar burns?

Col R Hariharan (Retd) |Opinion| 1^st November 2021

 https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2021/nov/01/time-to-support-democracy-in-myanmar-2378098.html

The 39th ASEAN summit that met on October 26 had a notable absentee—Gen Min Aung Hlaing, head of Myanmar’s ruling junta. The ASEAN, which had Myanmar’s internal situation on its agenda, decided not to invite him after he refused to allow the group’s special envoy to meet Aung San Suu Kyi, who is imprisoned along with other leaders. Meeting political leaders was an important item on ASEAN’s five-point proposal for mediation. After taking the unprecedented action, the group offered a sop. It invited Chan Aye, permanent secretary at the Myanmar junta’s foreign ministry, to attend the summit. Rejecting the offer, the Myanmar military spokesman said, “For us, attending a meeting that doesn’t place Myanmar at the same level as others is like an assault on the sovereignty of our nation.” Neither the ASEAN chair nor the secretary general chose to refer to Myanmar’s absence at the summit, sending a clear message that the group was prepared to deal with the Myanmar junta chief on its own terms. It was a huge loss of face for Gen Hlaing, as his presence would have partly fulfilled his quest for legitimacy of the junta government. 

The junta chief has also missed attending the 16th East Asia Summit (EAS) held virtually after the ASEAN summit, with the participation of leaders from Australia, China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US in addition to ASEAN leaders. American President Joe Biden in his address at the EAS was unequivocal in condemning the military takeover. He said, “In Myanmar, we must address the tragedy caused by the military coup, which is increasingly undermining regional stability.” He added, “The US stands for the people of Myanmar and calls for the military regime to end the violence ... and return to the path of democracy.”

On the other hand, the brief statement issued by the PMO and MEA said the important regional and global issues discussed at the EAS included Indo-Pacific, South China Sea and Myanmar. Pointedly, it said the “PM reaffirmed ‘ASEAN centrality’ in the Indo-Pacific and highlighted the synergies between ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOUIP) and India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI)”. The reaffirmation of ASEAN centrality indicates that India is probably not thinking beyond facilitating the group’s efforts at mediation in Myanmar. The same approach was likely adopted when the issue was discussed at the 18th ASEAN-India meeting on October 28. 

The UN, which had been preoccupied with the turbulence in Afghanistan, had also banked upon ASEAN’s five-point proposal for resolving the Myanmar issue. However, after ASEAN’s refusal to invite the military junta chief to the summit, the mediatory process could be indefinitely delayed. 

The moot point is, can India and the international community wait for ASEAN to take action while Myanmar burns? Thomas H Andrews, UN Special Rapporteur in Myanmar, has warned that the nation was heading for full-blown civil war in his report presented to the UN human rights body last month. Andrews said the crisis in Myanmar had become grave, with the army continuing to commit mass atrocity crimes. According to pro-democracy sources, as on October 23, under the military regime, 1,196 people had been killed and 9,175 arrested. These largely conform to the findings of international agencies. 

The newly elected members of the NLD and ethnic political parties have formed the National Unity Government (NUG) to visibly reinforce their legitimacy. Though its presence on the ground is shadowy, its official website and interactive social media sites keep the people informed of its activities. The NUG has demonstrated its multi-ethnic character by making the 1st Vice President Duwa Lashi La, a Kachin, the acting President and Mahn Win Khaing Than, a Christian Karen, the PM. The NUG has decided to repeal the 1962 Citizenship Law and replace it with a new law based on “proper” citizenship criteria. These actions meet the demand of not only Rohingyas but also “stateless” people of Indian origin in Myanmar. 

The NUG’s call for a civil disobedience movement against the junta has kept up the spirit of protestors. Many soldiers have deserted their posts. In August, the NUG formed the Peoples’ Defence Force (PDF), laying down a code of conduct for its fighters. It is carrying out attacks on Myanmar troops. It is significant that these attacks are taking place in regions like Sagaing and Magwe, Mandalay and Tanintharyi  (bordering Thailand), and Chin State (bordering Mizoram), which had not seen such protests in the recent past. The coup has almost killed the ceasefire that was in force with nearly 14 ethnic insurgent groups. Such ethnic groups in Northern Shan and Kayah states are regrouping to fight the Tatmadaw. In Rakhine state, the Arakan Army has consolidated its presence.

According to Myanmar media, the ruling junta has deployed thousands of troops to carry out operations in Chin State bordering Mizoram. A few days ago, Radio Free Asia reported the torching of a whole village by Tatmadaw troops after the Chin defence militia attacked a military convoy. Ethnic affinity of tribes living on both sides of India’s border with Myanmar makes it porous, as free movement for 16 km across the border is allowed. Mizoram is already facing the spillover of the conflict in Chin State, with nearly 13,000 people taking refuge with their ethnic kinsmen. It has become a political issue in the state after the Centre refused to treat them as refugees. Last week, the Nagaland government said an unknown number of Nagas from Myanmar have sought refuge in Mon district following military operations in the Sagaing region. 

Destabilisation along the border is a threat to the security of both India and Myanmar. Realising this, the armed forces of the two countries have been cooperating to maintain security and stability in their border areas and not to allow sanctuaries for insurgent groups in their territories. This has helped India curb insurgency in the Northeast. 

Myanmar is India’s gateway to the East and vital for India’s Act East Policy. India is involved in executing two strategically important projects in Myanmar: the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral that connects the Northeast with Myanmar and Thailand. During the last decade, India has built multifaceted, robust relations with Myanmar and its development assistance portfolio there is now over $1.75 billion. 

India’s efforts to build a win-win relation with Myanmar will go to nought if civil war continues. The writing on the wall is clear: The military cannot crush the fight for democracy and the international community is in no hurry to recognise the junta regime, which is running out of cash. The NUG has taken a number of affirmative actions, which need to be encouraged. 

As early as last April, a MEA spokesman said: “We condemn any use of violence. ... We stand for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar.” Words alone are not enough. It is time India used its good offices with the Tatmadaw to make it rethink its strategy and get ready for peace parleys as suggested in the ASEAN mediation process. 

Col R Hariharan (Retd) 
Former military intelligence specialist on South Asia and terrorism
(haridirect@gmail.com)

 

 

India comes to Sri Lanka’s rescue despite its China tilt. Will Colombo mend its ways now?

 With Sri Lanka facing a severe shortage of fertilizers after the import of chemical fertilizers from China was banned, Delhi steps in to speed up supply of nano fertilizer to Colombo

R Hariharan October 25, 2021 09:42:25 IST

https://www.firstpost.com/india/india-comes-to-sri-lankas-rescue-despite-its-china-tilt-will-colombo-mend-its-ways-now-10083031.html

“Sri Lanka dumps Chinese fertilizer and imports Nano Nitrogen liquid fertilizer from India,” screamed a Colombo media headline a few days back reflecting the growing exasperation with China’s increasingly high-handed conduct in the island nation.

The news item referred to the soured deal of organic fertilizer imported from China last August, from Qingdao Seawin Biotech Group which had signed a contract for the supply of 96,000 tonnes of organic fertilizer and 3,000 tonnes of powdered form of organic fertilizer. When the Department of Agriculture tested the imported cargo, it was found to contain several harmful bacterial species.

Another sample provided by the company was also found to be contaminated. Following this, the Department banned all imports of fertilizers from China, and the agriculture ministry suspended the $63 million contract awarded to the Chinese company.

As Sri Lanka was facing a severe shortage of fertilizers after the import of chemical fertilizers was banned, India stepped in to speed up the supply of nano fertilizer to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka went ahead with the import of 3.1 million litres of nano liquid fertilizer from India, which were tested and found to be free of contamination.

The whole episode has irritated China. The Chinese embassy in Colombo condemned the test carried out by Sri Lanka’s National Plant Quarantine Service, which found the presence of Erwinia and other harmful pathogens in the Chinese organic fertilizer samples. Sri Lanka state minister Dayasiri Jayasekara, said that as now we can’t import fertilizer from China, we resorted to getting it from India. “China is questioning us as to why we are not purchasing the fertilizer from them,” he said.

The organic fertilizer episode lays bare the seamier side of Sri Lanka’s close relationship with China. Of course, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, addressing the Communist Party of China (CPC) and World Political Parties summit on 8 July 2021, complimented China for never trying “to impose its own political views on the world” and never feeling “the need to manipulate the affairs of other countries.”

But the real-world behaviour of China with smaller countries has been manipulative and intrusive. A recent Sri Lanka news report in this context headlined

“Canadian Energy Enterprise Accuses China of Hijacking Major Project in Sri Lanka” gives the seamier story of China’s state owned firms’ conduct in compromising confidentiality agreements which forbade the use of the work products and proprietary information, to their advantage.

Close on the heels of India’s supply of nano nitrogen organic fertilizer to ward off fertilizer crisis, comes the report of Sri Lanka seeking a $500 million credit line from India to pay for its crude oil purchases. It comes in the midst of the severe foreign exchange crunch Sri Lanka is facing. The state-owned oil entity already owes $3 billion to two state-owned banks. In all likelihood, India will accommodate Sri Lanka’s request as oil shortage will have a crippling effect on Sri Lanka’s economy, already reeling under the impact of the Covid-pandemic. In this context, Sri Lanka is likely to finalise India’s long-standing offer to develop the oil tank farms for strategic energy reserves in Trincomalee.  This issue came up when India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla called upon the President during his three-day visit to Colombo in the first week of October.

Both India and Sri Lanka seem to be keen to ratchet up their relations which had taken some beating in recent times. India’s real time help in the wake of the container ship X-Press Pearl, carrying 25 tons of nitric acid, catching fire off Colombo port on 19 May, must have come as a moment of truth to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on firming up friendly relations with India. He probably had a rethink on the way India was sidelined in his policy priorities. First came the course correction he applied to the forgettable episode of discarding trilateral agreement with India and Japan on joint development of the Colombo Eastern Container Terminal. India’s port infrastructure giant Adani Group has obtained 51 percent stake in a deal signed with Sri Lanka’s John Keells Holdings and Sri Lanka Port Authority to jointly develop the West Container Terminal at the Colombo Port.

Then came the Integrated Country Strategy paper of the newly appointed Sri Lanka High Commissioner to India which had the President’s blessing. It speaks of elevating bilateral relationships to a strategic level, bolstering foreign investments, boosting connectivity and expanding strategic cooperation in defence and Indian Ocean security.

Many of the points in the strategy paper resonate with what Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla had discussed with the President, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister during his Colombo visit. In his meetings, he had underscored the importance India attaches to expeditiously taking forward mutually beneficial projects, including proposals to enhance air and sea connectivity between India and Sri Lanka. He also reiterated India’s position on complete implementation of the provisions under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, including devolution of powers and holding of provincial elections at the earliest. His visit to Jaffna is a strong reminder of India’s continued interest in the welfare of the Tamil minority.

The Foreign Secretary’s visit was followed a week later by the visit of India’s Army Chief General MM Naravane. He met the top leadership to underscore the importance India attaches to expeditiously taking forward mutually beneficial projects. During his meeting with the President, General Naravane said that India “highly expects” the stability of neighbouring countries for regional security. Already, over 1,000 Sri Lanka army officers are trained every year in India. According to the Presidential Media Division, a specially designed training course for 50 Army officers will be provided to Sri Lanka in the near future at the request of the Chief of Defence Staff and the Commander of the Sri Lanka Army. It is interesting to note India-Sri Lanka joint army training exercise Mitra Shakthi was being held during his visit.

In April 2020, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had said the Quad meets India’s aspiration of becoming “a stabilising power”. He called India’s present foreign policy as “India Way” to bring the country’s capacities for global good to provide security and connectivity and firmly dealing with global challenges. India would be a “decider or a shaper” than “abstainer” on issues like climate change and connectivity. To be a stabilising power, India needs to upgrade its relations with Sri Lanka to the strategic level. The moot point is can India do it, in the face of aggressive promotion of Chinese interests, backed by economic and military muscle? India has to, because it has no other option.

Colonel R Hariharan, former MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. Views expressed are personal.