The recent ASEAN snub was a huge loss of face for the junta chief. But can India and the international community wait for the group to take action while Myanmar burns?
Col R Hariharan (Retd) |Opinion| 1st November 2021
The
39th ASEAN summit that met on October 26 had a notable absentee—Gen Min Aung
Hlaing, head of Myanmar’s ruling junta. The ASEAN, which had Myanmar’s internal
situation on its agenda, decided not to invite him after he refused to allow
the group’s special envoy to meet Aung San Suu Kyi, who is imprisoned along
with other leaders. Meeting political leaders was an important item on ASEAN’s
five-point proposal for mediation. After taking the unprecedented action, the
group offered a sop. It invited Chan Aye, permanent secretary at the Myanmar
junta’s foreign ministry, to attend the summit. Rejecting the offer, the
Myanmar military spokesman said, “For us, attending a meeting that doesn’t
place Myanmar at the same level as others is like an assault on the sovereignty
of our nation.” Neither the ASEAN chair nor the secretary general chose to
refer to Myanmar’s absence at the summit, sending a clear message that the
group was prepared to deal with the Myanmar junta chief on its own terms. It
was a huge loss of face for Gen Hlaing, as his presence would have partly
fulfilled his quest for legitimacy of the junta government.
The
junta chief has also missed attending the 16th East Asia Summit (EAS) held
virtually after the ASEAN summit, with the participation of leaders from Australia,
China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US in addition to ASEAN
leaders. American President Joe Biden in his address at the EAS was unequivocal
in condemning the military takeover. He said, “In Myanmar, we must address the
tragedy caused by the military coup, which is increasingly undermining regional
stability.” He added, “The US stands for the people of Myanmar and calls for
the military regime to end the violence ... and return to the path of
democracy.”
On
the other hand, the brief statement issued by the PMO and MEA said the
important regional and global issues discussed at the EAS included
Indo-Pacific, South China Sea and Myanmar. Pointedly, it said the “PM
reaffirmed ‘ASEAN centrality’ in the Indo-Pacific and highlighted the synergies
between ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOUIP) and India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans
Initiative (IPOI)”. The reaffirmation of ASEAN centrality indicates that India
is probably not thinking beyond facilitating the group’s efforts at mediation
in Myanmar. The same approach was likely adopted when the issue was discussed
at the 18th ASEAN-India meeting on October 28.
The
UN, which had been preoccupied with the turbulence in Afghanistan, had also
banked upon ASEAN’s five-point proposal for resolving the Myanmar issue.
However, after ASEAN’s refusal to invite the military junta chief to the
summit, the mediatory process could be indefinitely delayed.
The
moot point is, can India and the international community wait for ASEAN to take
action while Myanmar burns? Thomas H Andrews, UN Special Rapporteur in Myanmar,
has warned that the nation was heading for full-blown civil war in his report
presented to the UN human rights body last month. Andrews said the crisis in
Myanmar had become grave, with the army continuing to commit mass atrocity
crimes. According to pro-democracy sources, as on October 23, under the
military regime, 1,196 people had been killed and 9,175 arrested. These largely
conform to the findings of international agencies.
The
newly elected members of the NLD and ethnic political parties have formed the
National Unity Government (NUG) to visibly reinforce their legitimacy. Though
its presence on the ground is shadowy, its official website and interactive
social media sites keep the people informed of its activities. The NUG has
demonstrated its multi-ethnic character by making the 1st Vice President Duwa
Lashi La, a Kachin, the acting President and Mahn Win Khaing Than, a Christian
Karen, the PM. The NUG has decided to repeal the 1962 Citizenship Law and replace
it with a new law based on “proper” citizenship criteria. These actions meet
the demand of not only Rohingyas but also “stateless” people of Indian origin
in Myanmar.
The
NUG’s call for a civil disobedience movement against the junta has kept up the
spirit of protestors. Many soldiers have deserted their posts. In August, the
NUG formed the Peoples’ Defence Force (PDF), laying down a code of conduct for
its fighters. It is carrying out attacks on Myanmar troops. It is significant
that these attacks are taking place in regions like Sagaing and Magwe, Mandalay
and Tanintharyi (bordering Thailand), and Chin State (bordering Mizoram),
which had not seen such protests in the recent past. The coup has almost killed
the ceasefire that was in force with nearly 14 ethnic insurgent groups. Such
ethnic groups in Northern Shan and Kayah states are regrouping to fight the
Tatmadaw. In Rakhine state, the Arakan Army has consolidated its presence.
According to Myanmar media, the ruling junta has deployed thousands of
troops to carry out operations in Chin State bordering Mizoram. A few days ago,
Radio Free Asia reported the torching of a whole village by Tatmadaw troops
after the Chin defence militia attacked a military convoy. Ethnic affinity of
tribes living on both sides of India’s border with Myanmar makes it porous, as
free movement for 16 km across the border is allowed. Mizoram is already facing
the spillover of the conflict in Chin State, with nearly 13,000 people taking
refuge with their ethnic kinsmen. It has become a political issue in the state
after the Centre refused to treat them as refugees. Last week, the Nagaland
government said an unknown number of Nagas from Myanmar have sought refuge in
Mon district following military operations in the Sagaing region.
Destabilisation along the border is a threat to the security of both India
and Myanmar. Realising this, the armed forces of the two countries have been
cooperating to maintain security and stability in their border areas and not to
allow sanctuaries for insurgent groups in their territories. This has helped
India curb insurgency in the Northeast.
Myanmar is India’s gateway to the East and vital for India’s Act East
Policy. India is involved in executing two strategically important projects in
Myanmar: the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral
that connects the Northeast with Myanmar and Thailand. During the last decade,
India has built multifaceted, robust relations with Myanmar and its development
assistance portfolio there is now over $1.75 billion.
India’s efforts to build a win-win relation with Myanmar will go to nought
if civil war continues. The writing on the wall is clear: The military cannot
crush the fight for democracy and the international community is in no hurry to
recognise the junta regime, which is running out of cash. The NUG has taken a
number of affirmative actions, which need to be encouraged.
As early as last April, a MEA spokesman said: “We condemn any use of
violence. ... We stand for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar.” Words
alone are not enough. It is time India used its good offices with the Tatmadaw
to make it rethink its strategy and get ready for peace parleys as suggested in
the ASEAN mediation process.
Col R Hariharan (Retd)
Former military intelligence specialist on South Asia and terrorism
(haridirect@gmail.com)
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