Wednesday, 28 April 2021

Third thoughts: On Tamil Nadu elections and India-Sri Lanka relations Q & A

 Col R Hariharan | April 28, 2021 |

 

Here is a paraphrased version of my answers to questions raised by a Sri Lankan scribe on April 27, 2021 on Tamil Nadu elections in relation to Sri Lanka:

Q 1: What is your forecast on Tamil Nadu election [from Sri Lanka Tamil view point]? Will MK Stalin [of DMK] win?

Unfortunately, this is what most pollsters say. Actually, whosoever wins it makes no difference. Both DMK and AIADMK [regimes] are corrupt. But AIADMK has a good equation with the Centre and the BJP. So, Tamil Nadu had a preferential treatment from New Delhi. If Stalin wins, his anti-Centre rhetoric will make things difficult with the Centre. He will make it the core of his propaganda to strengthen his support base. So, I see only political polemics, if he wins. Sri Lanka Tamil issue will [continue to] be used to spice up their political rhetoric, with no actual results.

Q 2: Will China factor in Sri Lanka have an impact on Tamil Nadu politics? After all Tamil Nadu is the closest state to Sri Lanka and its safety and security can be affected [by the presence of Chinese in Sri Lanka].

I don’t think Chinese presence in Sri Lanka will have an impact on Tamil Nadu politics. Tamil Nadu politics is mostly inward looking, focusing on issues like NEET [common all India medical entrance test], centre-state relations, Tamil language issue, exploitation of caste-based reservation, offer of freebies etc.

I don’t think Chinese presence in Jaffna, in addition to Colombo, will increase Chinese threat to Tamil Nadu. In any case, defence is a Central subject and not State’s. If the issue of Chinese threat in Sri Lanka gains prominence, if Stalin is in power, he will use it to blame Modi government. However, at present it is a non-issue.

Q 3: I hear Seeman [leader of Nam Thamizhar party] has done quite well this time and can anticipate 12 seats or something like that? Are there chances of Seeman and Stalin forming an alliance to block AIADMK win?

I doubt your assessment of Seeman’s party winning 12 seats; sounds like wishful thinking. His party has fielded women for 50 percent of the seats contested. I doubt the patriarchal Tamil society will give a boost to women candidates by electing them in large numbers. Seeman had fallen out with DMK; so, can’t comment on a future alliance.

Q 4: What will be the implications for Sri Lanka if AIADMK-BJP alliance wins in Tamil Nadu? Why is Dr S Jaishankar [India’s Minister for External Affairs] stressing provincial council (PC) elections in Sri Lanka in times of Covid?

Whosoever wins in Tamil Nadu, India’s current policy of adopting an issue-based approach on Sri Lanka would continue, because foreign policy falls in Centre’s domain. Implementation of 13th Amendment of Sri Lanka Constitution will continue to be a core issue of India’s policy as it is part of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord 1987. Equitable treatment to India on par with China in trade and development in Sri Lanka and continued networking between India and Sri Lanka on defence issues are other key parts of the bilateral relations, as I see it.

Dr Jaishankar had referred to the PC election in the context of India’s concerns in Sri Lanka and not in relation to the Covid pandemic. His focus on the subject indicates that the PC issue will come up again in India’s high-level meetings with Sri Lanka.

Q 5: I don’t think PC elections will be held soon. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will not heed Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

I wish foreign relations can be simplified in such binaries. [Otto von Bismarck said] Diplomacy is the art of the possible [the attainable – the next best]. My suggestions to Sri Lankan Tamils is [basically] ‘you have to fight your own battles.’ Don’t wait for India to do what you don’t want to do. Why don’t all Tamils get together to stage a massive protest demanding the holding of PC elections in Sri Lanka? It will send a strong message to not only India, but the whole world. There had been destruction of Hindu temples in Sri Lanka; I saw only BJP raising the issue in Tamil Nadu. Other perennials like fishermen issue will continue.  


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