By Shubham Ghosh | June 12, 2021 | Eastern Eye | https://www.easterneye.biz/exclusive-china-underestimated-indias-strong-response-that-triggered-galwan-clash-says-ex-mi-col-r-hariharan/
THEY both are promising
economies and with mammoth populations on either side of the border, these two
neighbours can aspire to be world beaters in decades to come. But in reality,
India and China have been more at odds than in unity. From border to political
to geostrategic, the two nuclear-powered neighbours have found themselves
embroiled in far too many disputes. The two countries had fought a war in 1962
which ended in favour of the Chinese while in the more recent past, they have
come face to face over potential conflicts in Doklam and Ladakh. India Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping have met time and again
to defuse the tension but the impact has been found to be short-lived. Is there
a realistic solution to India-China tussles and can the two countries focus on
bringing a positive change to the world together?
Eastern Eye took the
opportunity to speak to Colonel Ramani Hariharan, a
retired Indian Military Intelligence officer who served in the army for nearly
three decades. As a military intelligence specialist, Col Hariharan has worked
in times of the India-Pakistan War in Kutch in 1965, the Bangladesh Liberation
Struggle (1971) and counter-insurgency operations in several states in
north-east India. He was also the Head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace
Keeping Force in Sri Lanka (1987-90) for which he was awarded the Vishist Seva
Medal. After his retirement, Col Hariharan has been writing on strategic
security issues in national and international print and electronic media. He
has also been a visiting faculty in analysis and communication in the Indian
Institute of Management (IIM), Indore, and IIM, Raipur. He is currently also
associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, India, as a strategic
security and intelligence analyst.
Here is what Col Hariharan told Eastern Eye on various aspects
of India-China relations and what is in store.
EE: The UK Telegraph
recently reported that both India and China are mobilising
forces at their border once again in the fear
of a new conflict. Could there be a possibility of the two neighbours renewing
their border rivalry in the middle of a pandemic?
Col Hariharan: Both India and China have
already mobilised the forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern
Ladakh after the Galwan incident in June 2020. As agreed in the 11th round of
talks between the two sides, Indian troops were pulled back from Kailash Range
and Chinese troops from Finger 5 to 8 of ridges overlooking the South and North
banks of Pangong Tso Lake, respectively. However, Chinese have not pulled back
troops dominating the Depsang Plains. Therefore, the de-escalation that had
taken place has left the border situation in a half-way house. As the troops on
both sides are fully mobilised and disengagement has not been completed, the possibility
of another flare-up exists theoretically.
Both sides are
probably prepared to handle the possibility of a fresh flare-up but their
operational readiness precludes chances of a surprise clash of the Galwan type.
The Chinese are said to rotate troops for high altitude acclimatisation and are
qualitatively improving their armament. This would indicate they are preparing
for a long haul. As summer sets in, patrolling by both sides will increase.
Both sides will have be extra cautious lest any precipitate step could lead to
a confrontation. Of course, as Indian Army chief General manoj Mukund Naravane
has indicated, India is well prepared for such an eventuality.
The Chinese do not
seem to be in any hurry to go through with the disengagement of troops, that
was agreed upon, So, hopefully we can expect the present phase of ‘armed peace’
to continue.
EE: China’s India
policy has been baffling for many. While some of its hawkish media outlets and
academics blame India for making things worse at the border,
politico-diplomatically, Chinese representatives tend to speak more softly on
India, stressing the two neighbours’ friendly relations. Is there a definite
thinking behind this pattern?
Col Hariharan: For too long, India had been bending over backwards to
accommodate even whimsical actions of China, like insisting on a stapled visa
for people of Jammu & Kashmir. Trespassing the LAC in Ladakh had become a
habit for Chinese border troops, particularly on the eve of Chinese
dignitaries’ visits to India, i.e., Prime Minister Li Keqiang in May 2013 and
President Xi Jinping in September 2014. When China was facing the Covid virus
threat, Chinese troops occupying Indian territory across LAC served as a useful
political diversion for President Xi. Lt Gen Palepu Shankar supports this
theory with the observation that the intruding troops came in non-operational
formation.
It was evident that
the Chinese had underestimated India’s strong response that triggered the
Galwan Valley incident in May 2020 and fast mobilisation of troops. When they
dilly-dallied in high-level talks to ease the situation, Indian troops
surprised the Chinese by carrying out a silent operation to occupy the Finger
ridge in North and the Kailash Range in the South of Pangong Tso. This was probably
China’s moment of truth to realise the futility of such an adventure.
The Galwan incident
was also, probably, PM Modi’s moment of truth as it showed that President Xi
was ready to further Sino-Indian rivalry only on his own terms. This left India
with few options but to join the ‘Quad’ grouping (of the US, India, Japan and
Australia) coming up to coordinate the response to China’s rapidly increasing
strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region.
Despite the souring
of India-China relations and PM Modi launching the ‘Atmanirbhar’
(self-sufficiency) schemes, to wean away dependence on Chinese imports, China
has emerged as India’s No 1 trading partner worth $77 billion in 2020-21. This
must have reminded China that India continues to remain one of the largest
market places for its goods, even when the world was reeling under Covid
pandemic. So probably, the Chinese diplomats have been advised to soft pedal
their rhetoric against India.
EE: Indian
leaderships in the past made efforts to better relations with China despite a
perennially mutual suspicion. Rajiv Gandhi tried in the 1980s and AB Vajpayee
in the 2000s. Has PM Narendra Modi considered a similar strategy in dealing
with China in the last seven years? He has been found making friendly gestures
at Beijing time and again but have they been more flashes in the pan than a
concrete policy?
Col Hariharan: As the saying goes, it takes
two to tango. It is true that India had been trying to build bridges with
China, since the 1980s. But the border issue and continued illegal occupation
of Indian territory continue to be the elephant in the room in fully
actualising the India-China relationship.
However, China
seems to be in no hurry to resolve the border issue. Twenty-two rounds of talks
have been held on the border issue. This shows that mending relations with
India is not a priority for China. Even the modalities of conduct for border
troops to avoid confrontation along the disputed border did not prevent the
Galwan clash.
The writing on the
wall is clear; China wants India to set aside the border dispute in its process
of furthering bilateral relations. For India resolving the territorial dispute
relates is germane to a win-win relationship with China. So, India can only
make the best out of a bad situation, in building cordial relations with China.
EE: Nepal has
sought vaccine aid from China after India faced a devastating Covid outbreak
this year. Given the talks about ‘Vaccine Maitri’ that India asserted, is this
major foreign policy debacle that could only help the Chinese in India’s
neighbourhood?
Col Hariharan: I don’t agree that India’s
“Vaccine Maitri” initiative has failed. Under this programme, India has
exported more than 66 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine to 95 countries
worldwide. Of these, 10 million doses were grants from the government, 20
million doses were sent as part of the global COVAX facility and the rest 36
million were commercial exports.
However, the
government did not anticipate the second wave and PM Modi during his January 29
speech at the Davos forum prematurely said the country had won the war on
Covid-19. This took the shine off the Maitri programme.
However, the
programme is not related to only supply of vaccine from India. India has sent
medical teams and Covid kits abroad wherever needed. India, along with South
Africa, has taken the initiative with WTO for waiver of intellectual property
rights to manufacture of Covid vaccines. Overall, India’s ‘Vaccine Maitri’
initiative has been commended by the WHO as well as the UN.
When it comes to
Nepal, the Covid vaccination campaign in the country was launched in January
2021 with one million doses of Covishield vaccine gifted by India. Nepal was
the first country to benefit from the COVAX initiative in Asia. Under this
initiative, Nepal received 380,000 doses of vaccine from India in May 2021.
As against this,
China had provided 800,000 doses of Sinopharm BBIBP-CorV vaccine, in March 2021.
President Xi Jinping has announced in May 26 that China would provide a million
doses of Sinopharm vaccine to Nepal as grant in aid. Unfortunately for China,
Sinopharm vaccine has not been very successful. In fact, countries like Brazil
and the UAE which had received the vaccine from China, had found it to be
ineffective. Even Sri Lanka which received a gift of 300,000 doses of Sinopharm
vaccine, deferred its use for months as it had not received the documentation
about the vaccine. Overall, I would not rate China’s vaccine diplomacy as a
great success.
EE: The Joe Biden
administration has brought the focus back on Quad to take on China but India
has been less enthusiastic about it. Do you think Quad really has a chance in
bringing together an anti-China platform? For India, which is the only Quad
nation sharing a border with China, should handling China unilaterally suit
more than in a strategic unison?
Col Hariharan: The Quad was formed to ensure a
free and open international order based on the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific.
It is no doubt China-centric, because Quad members are being challenged in the
region by China in many ways. That is why the Quad summit also spoke of other
issues like climate change, counter terrorism, critical technologies and disaster
relief.
Since India is the
only country sharing a long land border with China, its role in the Quad will
be unique. As a dominant naval power in Indian Ocean segment of the
Indo-Pacific, India has a pivotal role as it has the capability to interdict
international sea lanes at choke points.
As External Affairs
Minister Dr Jaishankar said in April 2020, the Quad meets India’s aspiration of
becoming “a stabilising power”. He called India’s present foreign policy as
“India Way” to bring India’s capacities for global good to provide security and
connectivity and firmly dealing with global challenges. India would be a
“decider or a shaper” than “abstainer” on issues like climate change and
connectivity.
Though India had
been proud of its strategic autonomy, joining the Quad indicates India’s
readiness to adapt it to the strategic needs of the “India Way”. As Dr
Jaishankar says, the world is moving towards “multipolarity, rebalancing and
plurilateralism. Shared values and comforts are creating new combinations”.
It is inevitable
the “India Way” would be tested during the country’s participation as an active
member of the Quad. On the other hand, India’s hands are now strengthened by
the value addition Quad members bring in. Quad initiative is unlikely to become
a military alliance like NATO. But it has enough clout to be a cause for
concern for China in managing strategic security in the Indo-Pacific. This is
evident from its shrill response to the Quad, and the “warning” it keeps
dishing out to other Indian Ocean countries about it.
EE: Finally, what
are the prospects of India-China relations’ future under the leaderships of two
strongmen – Modi and Xi Jinping? Would they be enemy or friends or frenemies at
the best?
Col Hariharan: The two leaders are strong personalities
accustomed to force their way through complex situations. Both of them have no
hesitation in taking decisions to achieve their goals. It does not matter to
either of them whether they are friends or enemies, if they set their mind to
achieve their goal. Both of them bring their own political compulsions when
they deal with each other.
President Xi is
poised to get a further extension of his term as General Secretary of the CCP
and President in 2022. According to some reports, like Mao Zedong, he may
become a lifetime occupant of the supreme authority. His muscular response to
enforce China’s writ in Hongkong, and continuing show of force in South China
Sea against Taiwan, Japan and Philippines and even Malaysia has whipped up
nationalist fervour in China. This will stand him in good stead when his
election comes up in 2022.
However, the Covid
pandemic has delayed President Xi’s quest to realise his Chinese Dream, through
the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure link between China with the
rest of the world. This is affecting Xi’s strategic moves to wrest the
leadership role from the US and its allies to create a new world order.
On other hand, the
Covid pandemic has put paid to PM Modi’s dream of making India a multi-trillion
economy. In 2022, he will have to sell the BJP story afresh to win the Assembly
elections in eight states, including Punjab, UP, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.
In my reading, under these circumstances, both the leaders would probably avoid
getting involved in a messy long-drawn conflict along the LAC, with uncertain
results.
Chinese Ambassador
to India Sun Weidong’s latest statement in New Delhi that India and China “should
respect each other, treat each other as equals, conduct dialogue and
consultation and properly address the differences to find a mutually acceptable
solution” describes the Chinese attitude best. India also would probably go
along with it, as it suits the country limping back from the Covid pandemic.
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